2026 Florida gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2026 Florida gubernatorial election will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Florida. Primary elections will take place on August 18, 2026.[1] Incumbent governor Ron DeSantis is ineligible to seek re-election to a third consecutive term.
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November 3, 2026
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Republicans have won every gubernatorial election in Florida since 1998.
Background
A heavily populated South Atlantic state with a large and increasingly conservative Latino American population and the northern parts lying in the Bible Belt, Florida is considered to be a moderately to strongly red state, having not elected a Democratic governor since 1994 nor a Democrat for president since 2012 and having moved significantly rightward in the last decade.[2] In 2022, incumbent governor Ron DeSantis was re-elected by a 19.4% margin, a considerable improvement from his 0.4-point victory four years earlier in the gubernatorial election during the 2018 blue wave.[3]
This was followed in 2024 by Republican Donald Trump winning his adoptive home state by a 13% margin as he won a second non-consecutive presidential term, improving his 3.4% margin of victory in 2020 and seemingly diminishing Florida's longtime swing-state and bellwether status. Republicans also control all statewide offices, a large majority of the state's U.S. House delegation, both U.S. Senate seats, and supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature.[3]
Candidate eligibility and requirements
Article IV, Section 5(b) of the Florida Constitution states that, for a person to serve as governor, they must:[4]
- Be at least thirty years old;
- Be a permanent resident of Florida for at least seven years;
- Not have served as governor for six years or more of the two prior terms.
Republican primary
Candidates
Qualified
- Jay Collins, 21st lieutenant governor of Florida (2025–present)[5]
- Byron Donalds, U.S. representative for Florida's 19th congressional district (2021–present)[6]
- Paul Renner, 103rd speaker of the Florida House of Representatives (2022–2024) from the 19th district (2015–2024)[7]
- James Fishback, CEO of Azoria[8]
- Jim Holcomb[9]
- Arthur Joseph McCaffrey[10]
- Daniel Nokovich[10]
- Rachel Rodriguez, attorney[9]
- James Walker Shaw, farmer[9]
- Caneste Succe, public representative[9]
- Bobby Williams, activist and food bank volunteer[11]
Failed to qualify
Withdrawn
Declined
- Matt Gaetz, former U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district (2017–2024)[14]
- Francis Suarez, 43rd mayor of Miami (2017–2025) and candidate for president in 2024[15]
Endorsements
Jay Collins
- State representatives
- Susan Plasencia, HD-37 (2022–present) (previously endorsed Donalds)[16]
- Local officials
- Mike Chitwood, sheriff of Volusia County (2017–present) (Independent)[17]
- René García, Miami-Dade County commissioner[18]
- Guy Lalonde Jr., Lakeland City Commissioner (2024–present)[19]
- Bill Leeper, sheriff of Nassau County (2012–present)[19]
- Bobby McCallum, sheriff of Levy County[19]
- Organizations
Byron Donalds
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[21]
- Scott Bessent, secretary of the treasury (2025–present)[22]
- Dan Bongino, former deputy director of the FBI (2025–2026)[23]
- Doug Burgum, secretary of the interior (2025–present)[22]
- Stacey Feinberg, ambassador to Luxembourg (2025–present)[22]
- Joe Gebbia, chief design officer (2025–present)[22]
- Jacob Helberg, under secretary of state for economic growth, energy and the environment (2025–present)[22]
- Peter Lamelas, ambassador to Argentina (2025–present)[22]
- Kelly Loeffler, administrator of the Small Business Administration (2025–present)[22]
- Elon Musk, former senior advisor to the president (2025) (Independent)[24]
- Dan Newlin, nominee to be ambassador to Colombia[22]
- John C. Phelan, secretary of the navy (2025–2026)[22]
- Andrew Puzder, ambassador to the European Union (2025–present)[22]
- David Sacks, co-chair of the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (2025–present)[22]
- Steve Witkoff, special envoy to the Middle East (2025–present) and special envoy for peace missions (2025–present)[22]
- U.S. senators
- Rick Scott, Florida (2019–present)[25]
- Ted Cruz, Texas (2013–present)[26]
- U.S. representatives
- Aaron Bean, FL-04 (2023–present)[27]
- Gus Bilirakis, FL-12 (2007–present)[28]
- Vern Buchanan, FL-16 (2007–present)[29]
- Kat Cammack, FL-03 (2021–present)[30]
- Mario Díaz-Balart, FL-26 (2003–present)[31]
- Neal Dunn, FL-02 (2017–present)[32]
- Tom Emmer, House majority whip (2023–present) from MN-06 (2015–present)[33]
- Randy Fine, FL-06 (2025–present)[34]
- Scott Franklin, FL-18 (2021–present)[31]
- Russell Fry, SC-07 (2023–present)[35]
- Mike Haridopolos, FL-8 (2025–present)[36]
- Mike Johnson, speaker of the House (2023–present) from LA-04 (2017–present)[37]
- Laurel Lee, FL-15 (2023–present)[31]
- Anna Paulina Luna, FL-13 (2023–present)[38]
- Brian Mast, FL-21 (2017–present)[31]
- Lisa McClain, MI-09 (2021–present)[33]
- Cory Mills, FL-07 (2023–present)[30]
- Jimmy Patronis, FL-01 (2025–present)[39]
- Chip Roy, TX-21 (2019–present)[40]
- John Rutherford, FL-05 (2017–present)[31]
- María Elvira Salazar, FL-27 (2021–present)[31]
- Steve Scalise, House majority leader (2023–present) from LA-01 (2008–present)[33]
- Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (2015–present)[33]
- Daniel Webster, FL-11 (2011–present)[31]
- Jeff Miller, former FL-01 (2001–2017)[22]
- Statewide officials
- Jeff Landry, governor of Louisiana (2024–present) and special envoy to Greenland (2025–present)[41]
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, governor of Arkansas (2023–present)[42]
- State legislators
- Daniel Perez, speaker of the Florida House of Representatives (2025–present) from HD-116 (2018–present)[43]
- Wyman Duggan, speaker pro tempore of the Florida House of Representatives (2024–present) from HD-12 (2018–present)[43]
- Tyler Sirois, majority leader of the Florida House of Representatives (2024–present) from HD-31 (2018–present)[43]
- 59 other state representatives[a]
- 9 state senators[b]
- Spencer Roach, former HD-76 (2018–2024)[34]
- Party officials
- Lara Trump, former co-chair of the Republican National Committee (2024–2025)[23]
- Christian Ziegler, former chair of the Florida Republican Party (2023–2024)[47]
- Local officials
- Christi Fraga, mayor of Doral (2022–present)[48]
- D. C. Reeves, mayor of Pensacola (2022–present)[51]
- Chad Chronister, sheriff of Hillsborough County (2017–present)[52]
- Vicki Lopez, Miami-Dade county commissioner from the 5th district (2025–present)[43]
- Rosie Cordero-Stutz, sheriff of Miami-Dade County (2025–present)[52]
- Bob Gualtieri, sheriff of Pinellas County (2011–present)[53]
- Grady Judd, sheriff of Polk County (2005–present)[54]
- Dennis Lemma, sheriff of Seminole County (2017–present)[55]
- T. K. Waters, sheriff of Duval County (2022–present)[52]
- Individuals
- Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz[22]
- Brian D. Ballard, founder of Ballard Partners[22]
- Carlos Beruff, real estate developer[22]
- Bill Conerly, politician[43]
- Erika Donalds, school choice activist (candidate's spouse)[56]
- Ben Horowitz, co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz[22]
- Benny Johnson, political commentator[23]
- Jay Kemmerer, owner of Jackson Hole Mountain Resort[22]
- Adam Kidan, president of Empire Workforce[22]
- Charlie Kirk, co-founder of Turning Point USA (deceased)[57]
- Omeed Malik, banker[22]
- Phil Mickelson, professional golfer[58]
- Ross Perot Jr., real estate developer[22]
- Harry Sargeant III, oil executive[22]
- David Steward, founder of World Wide Technology[22]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of President Donald Trump[59]
- Zach Witkoff, businessman[22]
- George Zoley, CEO of GEO Group[22]
- Organizations
James Fishback
- Federal officials
- Carrie Prejean, former member of the Religious Liberty Commission (2025-2026)[64]
- State legislators
- Anthony Sabatini, former member of the Florida House of Representatives (2018-2022), and Lake County commissioner (2024-present)[65]
- Individuals
- Asmongold, online streamer and political commentator[66]
- Tucker Carlson, conservative political commentator[67]
- Nick Fuentes, far-right political activist[68]
- Sneako, political commentator[69]
- Andrew Tate, internet personality[70]
- Organizations
MAHA Institute(withdrawn)[71]
Paul Renner
- U.S. representatives
- State legislators
- Dennis Baxley, former president pro tempore of the Florida Senate (2022–2024) from SD-13 (2016–2024)[73]
- Charlie Stone, former HD-22 (2012–2020)[74]
- Local officials
- R.J. Larizza, state attorney for the 7th judicial circuit (2009–present)[75]
- Organizations
Declined to endorse
- Statewide officials
- Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida (2019–present)[78]
Debates
| Date | Host | Moderators | Location | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant I Invited W Withdrawn A Absent N Not invited |
|||||||
| Jay Collins | Byron Donalds | James Fishback | Paul Renner | ||||
| July 15, 2026[79][80] | CBS News | TBA | Jacksonville | I | I | I | I |
| July 21, 2026[81] | Fox News | TBA | Tampa | N | I | I | N |
Cancelled debate
In June 2026, the Republican Party of Florida announced that they would not be hosting a gubernatorial debate, as originally planned, later that month. The party stated that they had made the decision to cancel the debate after no candidate except Donalds met its qualifications.[79] The party's minimum requirements for a candidate to participate included:
- At least 10% support in a Republican party-sponsored primary voter poll
- A minimum $10 million in raised contributions
- Over 10,000 unique individual campaign donors
The announcement drew criticism from gubernatorial candidates Collins, Fishback, and Renner, as well as incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis.[79] DeSantis attacked the party for trying to "engineer the outcome" of the primary election and acting against "the best interest of Republican voters."[79] DeSantis additionally noted that he himself would not have qualified under the set criteria during his 2018 primary run.[82]
| Date | Host | Moderators | Location | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant I Invited W Withdrawn A Absent N Not invited |
|||||||
| Jay Collins | Byron Donalds | James Fishback | Paul Renner | ||||
| June 27, 2026[83] | Republican Party of Florida | TBA | Fort Lauderdale | N | I | N | N |
Fundraising
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Jay Collins |
Byron Donalds |
James Fishback |
Paul Renner |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Public Sentiment Institute[89] | June 8–9, 2026 | 729 (LV) | ± 3.6% | – | 41.5% | 38.7% | – | – | 19.8% |
| 11.0% | 37.3% | 26.7% | 3.9% | – | 21.1% | ||||
| Change Research (D)[90][A] | May 13–16, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 8% | 48% | 9% | 3% | – | 28% |
| Public Sentiment Institute[91] | May 13–14, 2026 | 750 (LV) | – | – | 46% | 35% | – | – | 19% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[92] | April 26–30, 2026 | 420 (LV) | ± 4.78% | 7% | 54% | 9% | 2% | – | 28% |
| Stetson University[93] | March 25 – April 13, 2026 | 373 (LV) | – | 6% | 38% | 5% | 7% | 17% | 28% |
| Keystone Analytics[94] | March 27 – April 6, 2026 | 795 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | 43% | 19% | – | – | 38% |
| Tarrance Group (R)[95][B] | March 30 – April 2, 2026 | 466 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 6% | 50% | 9% | 3% | – | 32% |
| Emerson College[96] | March 29–31, 2026 | 465 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 4% | 46% | 4% | 3% | 4%[d] | 39% |
| The American Promise[97] | February 23–26, 2026 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 4% | 44% | 5% | 2% | – | 45% |
| The Public Sentiment Institute[98] | February 20, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 12% | 30% | 8% | 2% | 2%[e] | 46% |
| – (RV) | 7% | 29% | 5% | 1% | 1%[f] | 57% | |||
| – (A) | 7% | 27% | 5% | 1% | 1%[f] | 59% | |||
| University of North Florida[99] | February 16–20, 2026 | 657 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 4% | 31% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 51% |
| 3% | 28% | 4% | 1% | 28%[g] | 36% | ||||
| Targoz Market Research[100][C] | February 13–16, 2026 | 401 (RV) | – | 15% | 33% | 3% | 9% | – | 40% |
| Patriot Polling (R)[101] | January 19–29, 2026 | 827 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 37% | 23% | – | – | 40% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[102] | January 8–13, 2026 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 7% | 37% | 3% | 4% | – | 49% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[103][B] | January 4–6, 2026 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | 45% | 4% | 3% | – | 41% |
| – | 39% | 3% | 1% | 26%[h] | 31% | ||||
| – | 47% | 5% | 4% | – | 43% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[104][D] | December 7–11, 2025 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 13% | 40% | – | – | 9% | 38% |
| The Tyson Group (R)[106] | December 8–9, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 9% | 38% | 2% | 1% | – | 49% |
| The American Promise[107] | November 17–19, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 1% | 43% | 0% | 2% | – | 54% |
| Victory Insights (R)[108] | November 11–13, 2025 | 600 (LV) | – | 1% | 45% | 1% | 3% | – | 49% |
| St. Pete Polls[109][E] | October 13–15, 2025 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 4% | 39% | – | 3% | – | 54% |
| 12% | 52% | – | – | – | 36% | ||||
| Targoz Market Research[110][C] | September 16–18, 2025 | 506 (RV) | – | – | 29% | – | 9% | – | 62% |
| The American Promise[111] | September 4–5, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 2% | 40% | – | 2% | – | 54% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Casey DeSantis |
Byron Donalds |
Matt Gaetz |
Ashley Moody |
Jeanette Nuñez |
Jimmy Patronis |
Wilton Simpson |
Francis Suarez |
Michael Waltz |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[96] | March 29–31, 2026 | 465 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 7% | 44% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 15%[i] | 34% |
| St. Pete Polls[109][E] | October 13–15, 2025 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 21% | 47% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 36% |
| Targoz Market Research[110][C] | September 16–18, 2025 | 510 (RV) | – | 26% | 23% | – | – | – | – | 2% | – | – | 9%[j] | 39% |
| University of North Florida[112] | July 14–22, 2025 | 797 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 29% | 8% | – | – | – | 1% | 2% | – | 10%[k] | 18% |
| St. Pete Polls[113][114][E] | July 8–10, 2025 | 831 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 27% | 35% | – | – | – | – | 3% | – | – | 2%[l] | 32% |
| Targoz Market Research[115][116][C] | May 5–7, 2025 | 516 (RV) | – | 29% | 28% | 10% | – | 7% | – | 4% | 5% | – | 4%[m] | 13% |
| Targoz Market Research[115][117][C] | April 15–22, 2025 | 619 (RV) | – | 28% | 22% | 8% | – | 9% | – | 4% | 7% | – | 4%[m] | 18% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[118] | February 26–27, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 30% | 34% | – | – | – | – | 3% | – | – | – | 33% |
| Victory Insights (R)[119] | January 26–27, 2025 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.5% | – | 34% | – | – | – | – | 5% | – | – | – | 61% |
| – | 31% | – | – | 4% | – | 3% | 1% | – | – | 60% | ||||
| Florida Atlantic University/ Mainstreet Research[120] |
June 8–9, 2024 | 366 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 19% | 13% | 14% | – | 5% | – | – | – | 7%[n] | – |
| Florida Atlantic University/ Mainstreet Research[121] |
April 15–17, 2024 | 372 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 38% | – | 16% | – | – | – | – | – | – | 20%[o] | 26% |
| Victory Insights (R)[122] | April 3–6, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.9% | – | 21% | 13% | – | – | 3% | 2% | – | 5% | 14%[p] | 43% |
| University of North Florida[123] | October 23 – November 4, 2023 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 22% | 9% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 6%[q] | 40% |
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Evelyn Castillo-Bach[10]
- Thomas Eloy Fernandez[10]
- Dayna Marie Foster, mathematics teacher[124][125]
- David Jolly, former Republican U.S. representative from Florida's 13th congressional district (2014–2017)[126]
- Running mate: Gwen Graham, former Assistant Secretary of Education (2021–2025), former U.S. representative from Florida's 2nd congressional district (2015–2017), and candidate for governor in 2018[127]
- Dotie Joseph, state representative from the 108th district (2018–present)[128]
- Stephann Norman[10]
Withdrawn
- Jerry Demings, mayor of Orange County (2018–present) and husband of former U.S. representative Val Demings[129]
- Jessica Vernekar, social media influencer[130]
Declined
- Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party (2023–present), former Florida Commissioner of Agriculture (2019–2023), and candidate for governor in 2022[131]
- Fentrice Driskell, minority leader of the state House of Representatives (2022–present) (running for state senate)[132]
- Gwen Graham, former Assistant Secretary of Education (2021–2025), former U.S. representative from Florida's 2nd congressional district (2015–2017), and candidate for governor in 2018 (endorsed Jolly, running for lieutenant governor)[133][127]
- Shevrin Jones, state senator from the 34th district (2020–present)[131]
- Daniella Levine Cava, mayor of Miami-Dade County (2020–present)[134]
- Jared Moskowitz, U.S. representative from Florida's 23rd congressional district (2023–present)[135] (running for re-election)[136]
- Angie Nixon, state representative from the 13th district (2020–present)[137] (running for U.S. Senate)[138]
Endorsements
David Jolly
- Executive branch officials
- Donna Shalala, former secretary of health and human services (1993–2001) and FL-27 (2019–2021)[133]
- U.S. representatives
- Allen Boyd, former FL-02 (1997–2011)[139]
- Gwen Graham, former FL-02 (2015–2017) and 2018 gubernatorial candidate[133]
- Ron Klein, former FL-22 (2007–2011)[139]
- Patrick Murphy, former FL-18 (2013–2017)[139]
- Larry Smith, former FL-16 (1983–1993)[140]
- Karen Thurman, former FL-05 (1993–2003)[133]
- Statewide officials
- Betty Castor, former education commissioner of Florida (1987–1994)[139]
- Barbara Pariente, former chief justice (2004–2006) of the Supreme Court of Florida (1997–2019)[141]
- Alex Sink, former Chief Financial Officer of Florida (2007–2011) and nominee for governor in 2010[142]
- Eric Smith, former education commissioner of Florida (2007–2011) (Republican)[139]
- State legislators
- Robin Bartleman, HD-103 (2020–present)[139]
- Lori Berman, minority leader of the Florida Senate (2025–present) from SD-31 (2018–present)[143]
- Mack Bernard, SD-24 (2024–present)[144]
- Kevin Chambliss, HD-117 (2020–present)[139]
- Dan Daley, HD-96 (2019–present)[139]
- Tracie Davis, SD-05 (2022–present)[142]
- Michael Gottlieb, HD-102 (2018–present)[139]
- Emily Gregory, HD-87 (2026–present)[145]
- Shevrin Jones, SD-34 (2020–present)[146]
- Rob Long, HD-90 (2025–present)[144]
- Brian Nathan, SD-14 (2026–present)[147]
- Tina Polsky, SD-30 (2020–present)[139]
- Mitch Rosenwald, HD-98 (2024–present)[139]
- Kelly Skidmore, HD-89 (2024–present)[144]
- Debra Tendrich, HD-92 (2020–present)[144]
- 44 former state legislators[139][140][r]
- Local officials
- Dave Aronberg, former State attorney for the Fifteenth Judicial Circuit Court of Florida (2013–2025)[144]
- Angelo Castillo, mayor of Pembroke Pines (2024–present)[140]
- Lamar Fisher, Broward County commissioner from the 4th district (2018–present)[140]
- Anne Gannon, Palm Beach County tax collector (2006–present) and former HD-86 (2000–2006)[139]
- Joe Geller, Miami-Dade County Public Schools board member from the 3rd district (2024–present) and former HD-100 (2014–2022)[139]
- Steven Geller, Broward County commissioner from the 5th district (2016–present) and former SD-31 (2003–2009)[139]
- Daniella Levine Cava, mayor of Miami-Dade County (2020–present)[148]
- Amy Mercado, Orange County property appraiser (2021–present) and former HD-48 (2016–2020)[139]
- Nan Rich, Broward County commissioner from the 1st district (2016–present) and former minority leader (2010–2012) from SD-34 (2004–2012)[140]
- Dean Trantalis, mayor of Fort Lauderdale (2018–present)[140]
Jerry Demings (withdrawn)
- U.S. representatives
- Val Demings, former FL-10 (2017–2023) (candidate's spouse)[149]
- Al Lawson, former FL-05 (2017–2023)[150]
- Kendrick Meek, former FL-17 (2003–2011)[150]
- Darren Soto, FL-09 (2017–present)[151]
- Statewide officials
- Bob Butterworth, former attorney general of Florida (1987–2002)[150]
- State legislators
- Kristen Arrington, SD-25 (2024–present)[151]
- LaVon Bracy Davis, SD-15 (2025–present)[152]
- Rita Harris, HD-44 (2022–present)[151]
- Dianne Hart, HD-63 (2018–present)[150]
- Yvonne Hayes Hinson, HD-21 (2020–present)[150]
- Tony Hill, former SD-01 (2002–2011)[150]
- Johanna López, HD-43 (2022–present)[151]
- Ed Narain, former HD-61 (2014–2016)[151]
- Michele Rayner, HD-62 (2020–present)[151]
- Darryl Rouson, SD-16 (2016–present)[151]
- Gary Siplin, former SD-19 (2002–2012)[151]
- Leonard Spencer, HD-45 (2024–present)[151]
- Victor Torres, SD-25 (2016–2024)[151]
- RaShon Young, HD-40 (2025–present)[151]
- Local officials
- Buddy Dyer, mayor of Orlando (2003–present) and former Florida Senate Minority Leader (1998–2000) from the 14th district (1992–2002)[152]
- John Mina, sheriff of Orange County (2018–present)[152]
- Belvin Perry, former chief judge of the 9th juidicial circuit (1989–2014)[151]
- Bobby Powell, Palm Beach County commissioner from the 7th district (2024–present)[150]
- Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Jerry Demings |
David Jolly |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[90][A] | May 13–16, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 27% | 42% | – | 31% |
| Emerson College[96] | March 29–31, 2026 | 362 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 10% | 21% | 16%[s] | 53% |
| Targoz Market Research[100][C] | February 20–22, 2026 | 471 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 23% | 31% | 2%[t] | 44% |
| The Public Sentiment Institute[98] | February 20, 2026 | – (LV) | – | 16% | 22% | 9%[u] | 53% |
| – (RV) | 18% | 22% | 8%[v] | 52% | |||
| – (A) | 18% | 21% | 8%[v] | 53% | |||
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy[102] | January 8–13, 2026 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 19% | 23% | – | 58% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[153][F] | December 2–3, 2025 | 616 (LV) | – | 22% | 22% | – | 56% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Jason Pizzo |
Daniella Levine Cava |
Gwen Graham |
David Jolly |
Lauren Book |
Angie Nixon |
Shevrin Jones |
Fentrice Driskell |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[115][116][C] | May 5–7, 2025 | 396 (RV) | – | – | 32% | 13% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 7% | 21% |
| Targoz Market Research[115][117][C] | April 15–22, 2025 | 464 (RV) | – | 41% | 15% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 21% |
Independent and third-party candidates
Independent candidates
Qualified
- Dean Ocean Abrams (Independent)[10]
- Charles Burkett (Independent)[10]
- Jeffery Peter "Dr. Jeff" Datto (Independent)[10]
- Moliere Dimanche (Independent), author and withdrawn candidate for mayor of Orlando in 2023[155]
- Desmond Meade (Independent)[10]
- Frank J. Russo (Independent)[10]
- Kathy Anderson (Write-in)[10]
- Richard Paul Dembinsky (Write-in)[10]
- Mohammad Wajid Khan (Write-in)[10]
- Erik Morris (Write-in)[10]
Declined
- John Morgan, attorney and billionaire[156]
- Jason Pizzo, former Democratic minority leader of the Florida Senate (2024–2025) from the 37th district (2018–present)[157]
Libertarian Party
Qualified
- Scott Jewett (Libertarian), entrepreneur[158]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[159] | Solid R | August 28, 2025 |
| Race to the WH[160] | Lean R | June 19, 2026 |
| RealClearPolitics[161] | Likely R | June 5, 2026 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[162] | Safe R | September 4, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[163] | Solid R | September 11, 2025 |
Polling
Byron Donalds vs. David Jolly
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Byron Donalds (R) |
David Jolly (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[90][A] | May 13–16, 2026 | 1,593 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 42% | 46% | – | 12% |
| Cherry Communications (R)[164][G] | May 1–9, 2026 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 39% | – | 14% |
| Stetson University[165] | March 15 – April 13, 2026 | 848 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 40% | – | 7% |
| Echelon Insights[166][H] | April 3–9, 2026 | 406 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| MDW Communications (D)[167][I] | March 27 – April 3, 2026 | 1,834 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% |
| Emerson College[96] | March 29–31, 2026 | 1,165 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 44% | 39% | 2%[w] | 17% |
| University of North Florida[168] | February 21 – March 2, 2026 | 786 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 36% | 5% | 17% |
| Targoz Market Research[100][C] | February 13–16, 2026 | 1,129 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 36% | 6%[x] | 12% |
| University of North Florida[169] | October 15–25, 2025 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 34% | 3%[y] | 18% |
| Targoz Market Research[110][C] | September 16–18, 2025 | 1,118 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 36% | 32% | 4%[z] | 28% |
| Bendixen & Amandi International (D)[170][J] | September 7–9, 2025 | 631 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 41% | – | 19% |
| AIF Center (R)[171] | August 25–27, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 41% | – | 11% |
| Victory Insights (R)[172] | June 7–10, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 37% | 31% | – | 32% |
James Fishback vs. David Jolly
Paul Renner vs. David Jolly
Hypothetical polling
Byron Donalds vs. Jerry Demings
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Byron Donalds (R) |
Jerry Demings (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherry Communications (R)[164][G] | May 1–9, 2026 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | – | 13% |
| Stetson University[165] | March 15 – April 13, 2026 | 848 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 46% | 42% | – | 7% |
| Echelon Insights[166][H] | April 3–9, 2026 | 406 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
| Emerson College[96] | March 29–31, 2026 | 1,165 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 36% | 2%[w] | 19% |
| University of North Florida[168] | February 21 – March 2, 2026 | 786 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 36% | 5% | 16% |
| University of North Florida[169] | October 15–25, 2025 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 33% | 5%[ab] | 17% |
Byron Donalds vs. Daniella Levine Cava vs. Jason Pizzo
Casey DeSantis vs. David Jolly
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Casey DeSantis (R) |
David Jolly (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[96] | March 29–31, 2026 | 1,165 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 39% | 40% | 3%[ac] | 19% |
| University of North Florida[169] | October 15–25, 2025 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 34% | 5%[ab] | 14% |
Casey DeSantis vs. Jerry Demings
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Casey DeSantis (R) |
Jerry Demings (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[96] | March 29–31, 2026 | 1,165 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 39% | 3%[ac] | 17% |
| University of North Florida[169] | October 15–25, 2025 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 36% | 6%[ad] | 11% |
Casey DeSantis vs. Daniella Levine Cava vs. Jason Pizzo
Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat
See also
Notes
- Shane Abbott, state representative from the 5th district (2022–present)[43]
- Jon Albert, state representative from the 48th district (2024–present)[43]
- Adam Anderson, state representative from the 57th district (2022–present)[43]
- Alex Andrade, state representative from the 2nd district (2018–present)[43]
- Jessica Baker, state representative from the 17th district (2022–present)[43]
- Webster Barnaby, state representative from the 29th district (2020–present)[43]
- Yvette Benarroch, state representative from the 81st district (2024–present)[43]
- Dean Black, state representative from the 15th district (2022–present)[43]
- Omar Blanco, state representative from the 115th district (2024–present)[43]
- Erika Booth, state representative from the 35th district (2024–present)[43]
- David Borrero, state representative from the 105th district (2020–2022), 111th district (2022–present)[43]
- Adam Botana, state representative from the 80th district (2020–present)[43]
- Nathan Boyles, state representative from the 3rd district (2025–present)[43]
- Robbie Brackett, state representative from the 34th district (2022–present)[43]
- James Buchanan, state representative from the 74th district (2018–present)[43]
- Demi Busatta, state representative from the 114th district (2020–present)[43]
- Jennifer Canady, state representative from the 50th district (2022–present)[43]
- Hillary Cassel, state representative from the 101st district (2022–present)[43]
- Linda Chaney, state representative from the 61st district (2020–present)[44]
- Nan Cobb, state representative from the 26th district (2024–present)[43]
- Tiffany Esposito, state representative from the 77th district (2022–present)[43]
- Tom Fabricio, state representative from the 110th district (2020–present)[44]
- Richard Gentry, state representative from the 27th district (2024–present)[43]
- Anne Gerwig, state representative from the 93rd district (2024–present)[43]
- Mike Giallombardo, state representative 79th district (2020–present)[43]
- Karen Gonzalez Pittman, state representative from the 65th district (2022–present)[43]
- Sam Greco, state representative from the 19th district (2024–present)[43]
- Philip Griffitts, state representative from the 6th district (2022–present)[43]
- J. J. Grow, state representative from the 23rd district (2024–present)[44]
- Jeff Holcomb, state representative from the 53rd district (2022–present)[43]
- Berny Jacques, state representative from the 59th district (2022–present)[34]
- Kim Kendall, state representative from the 18th district (2024–present)[43]
- Traci Koster, state representative from the 66th district (2020–present)[43]
- Fiona McFarland, state representative from the 73rd district (2020–present)[43]
- Lauren Melo, state representative from the 82nd district (2020–present)[45]
- Monique Miller, state representative from the 33rd district (2024–present)[43]
- Jim Mooney, state representative from the 120th district (2020–present)[43]
- Danny Nix Jr., state representative from the 75th district (2024–present)[43]
- Vanessa Oliver, state representative from the 76th district (2024–present)[43]
- Toby Overdorf, state representative from the 85th district (2018–present)[43]
- Michael Owen, state representative from the 70th district (2024–present)[46]
- Bill Partington, state representative from the 28th district (2024–present)[43]
- Jenna Persons-Mulicka, state representative from the 78th district (2020–present)[43]
- Rachel Plakon, state representative from the 36th district (2022–present)[43]
Susan Plasencia, state representative from the 37th district (2022–present)[43] (switched endorsement to Collins)[16]- Juan Carlos Porras, state representative from the 119th district (2022–present)[43]
- Mike Redondo, state representative from the 118th district (2023–present)[43]
- Alex Rizo, state representative from the 112th district (2020–present)[43]
- Will Robinson, state representative from the 71st district (2018–present)[43]
- Michelle Salzman, state representative from the 1st district (2020–present)[43]
- Judson Sapp, state representative from the 20th district (2024–present)[43]
- Jason Shoaf, state representative from the 7th district (2019–present)[43]
- David Smith, state representative from the 38th district (2018–present)[43]
- John Snyder, state representative from the 86th district (2020–present)[43]
- Paula Stark, state representative from the 47th district (2022–present)[43]
- Kevin Steele, state representative from the 55th district (2022–present)[43]
- Josie Tomkow, state representative from the 39th district (2018–2022), 51st district (2022–2025)[43]
- Dana Trabulsy, state representative from the 84th district (2020–present)[43]
- Chase Tramont, state representative from the 30th district (2022–present)[43]
- Kaylee Tuck, state representative from the 55th district (2020–2022), 83rd district (2022–present)[43]
- Susan Valdes, state representative from the 64th district (2018–present)[43]
- Joe Gruters, state senator from SD-22 (2018–present) and chair of the Republican National Committee (2025–present)[47]
- Bryan Avila, state senator from the 39th district (2022–present)[48]
- Alexis Calatayud, state senator from the 38th district (2022–present)[49]
- Nick DiCeglie, state senator from the 18th district (2022–present)[49]
- Erin Grall, state senator from the 29th district (2022–present)[49]
- Gayle Harrell, state senator from the 31st district (2022–present)[49]
- Jonathan Martin, state senator from the 33rd district (2022–present)[50]
- Debbie Mayfield, state senator (2016–2024, 2025–present)[49]
- Ana Maria Rodriguez, state senator from the 40th district (2020–present)[48]
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Bobby Williams with 1%; Charles Burkett with <1%
- Charles Burkett with 2%; Bobby Williams with 0%
- Charles Burkett with 1%; Bobby Williams with 0%
- Casey DeSantis with 24%; "Someone else" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
- Casey DeSantis with 26%
- Jay Collins & James Fishback with 4%; Paul Renner with 2%; Jay Collins with 2%; Charles Burkett & Bobby Williams with 1%
- Paul Renner with 7%; Jay Collins with 2%
- "Someone else" with 7%; "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Refused" with 1%
- Paul Renner with 2%
- Charles Burkett with 3%; Ashton Hayward with 1%
- "Someone else" with 7%
- "Another candidate" with 20%
- "Someone else" with 14%
- "Someone else" with 6%
- Michael Abrams, HD-105 (1983–1994)
- Dave Aronberg, SD-27 (2002–2010)
- Dick Batchelor, HD-43 (1974–1982)
- Annie Betancourt, HD-116 (1994–2002)
- Elaine Bloom, HD-106 (1974–1978, 1986–1995)
- Scott Clemons, HD-6 (1990–1998)
- Ben Diamond, HD-68 (2016–2022)
- Katie Edwards-Walpole, HD-98 (2012–2018)
- Steven Effman, HD-98 (1996–2000)
- Luis Garcia, HD-107 (2006–2012)
- Winston Gardner Jr., SD-17 (1988–1992)
- Dan Gelber, SD-25 (2008–2010) and former mayor of Miami Beach (2017–2023)
- Joseph Gibbons, HD-100 (2006–2014)
- Daryl Jones, SD-40 (1992–2002) and 2002 gubernatorial candidate
- Tom Keen, HD-35 (2024)
- Rick Kriseman, HD-53 (2006–2012) and former mayor of St. Petersburg (2014–2022)
- Mike Langton, HD-15 (1986–1992)
- Cindy Lerner, HD-119 (2000–2002)
- Fred Lippman, HD-100 (1978–1999)
- Janet Long, HD-51 (2006–2010)
- Anne Mackenzie, HD-95 (1982–1998)
- Robert McKnight, SD-38 (1978–1982)
- Les Miller, former Florida Senate Minority Leader (2004–2006) from the 18th district (2000–2006)
- Jon Mills, former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives (1987–1988) from the 24th district (1978–1988)
- Steve Perman, HD-78 (2010–2012)
- Frank Peterman, HD-55 (2000–2008)
- Ricardo Rangel, HD-43 (2012–2014)
- Alzo Reddick, HD-39 (1982–2000)
- Robert Reynolds, HD-109 (1978–1984)
- Tom Rossin, former minority leader of the Florida Senate (2000–2002) from SD-35 (1994–2002)
- Tim Ryan, HD-100 (1998–2006) and former Broward County Commissioner from the 7th district (2012–2024)
- Elaine Schwartz, HD-99 (2006–2014)
- Ron Silver, SD-38 (1992–2002)
- Rod Smith, SD-14 (2000–2006) and 2006 gubernatorial candidate
- Eleanor Sobel, SD-36 (2012–2016)
- Richard Stark, HD-104 (2012–2020)
- George Stuart, SD-14 (1978–1990) and 1990 gubernatorial candidate
- Marjorie Turnbull, HD-09 (1994–2000)
- Peter Weinstein, former majority leader of the Florida Senate (1990–1992) from SD-29 (1983–1996)
- Matt Willhite, HD-86 (2016–2022)
- Carl Zimmermann, HD-65 (2012–2014)
- Nancy Argenziano, SD-03 (2002–2007) (Reform; elected as a Republican)
- Paula Dockery, SD-15 (2002–2012) and 2010 Republican gubernatorial candidate (elected as a Republican)
- Juan-Carlos Planas, HD-14 (2002–2010) (elected as a Republican)
- Dayna Marie Foster & Jessica Vernekar at 2%
- "I would not vote" with 2%
- Dayna Marie Foster with 9%
- Dayna Marie Foster with 8%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Jason Pizzo (I) with 6%
- "Someone else", "Wouldn't vote", and "Refusal" with 1%
- Jason Pizzo (I) with 4%
- Jason Pizzo (I) with 5%
- "Someone else" and "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Refusal" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Someone else", "Wouldn't vote", and "Refusal" with 2%
Partisan clients
- Poll commissioned by Freedom Project USA
- Poll sponsored by Donalds' campaign
- Poll sponsored by the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tank
- Poll sponsored by Florida Politics
- Poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce
- Poll sponsored by Edge Communications
- Poll sponsored by Jolly's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Conservatives for Clean Energy