Josh Morgerman

Data collection and usage

Morgerman collects atmospheric pressure with multiple Kestrel 4500s. The data he has collected has been utilized by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in multiple instances to refine landfall intensities. 2011's Hurricane Rina's landfall in the Yucatán Peninsula was adjusted in light of his observations.^[5] In conjunction with satellite intensity estimates, his measurement of 975 mbar (28.8 inHg) within the eye of Hurricane Ernesto in 2012 was utilized to upgrade the hurricane's landfall intensity to Category 2.^[8]

In 2014, Morgerman's measurement of 943.1 mbar (27.85 inHg) within Hurricane Odile resulted in the landfall pressure being adjusted to 941 mbar (27.8 inHg) from the operational estimate of 930 mbar (27 inHg).^[9][10] His observation of 937.8 mbar (27.69 inHg) in 2015's Hurricane Patricia, in conjunction with two nearby automated measurements, assisted in more accurately analyzing the hurricane's strength at landfall. Meteorologists at the NHC concluded an approximate minimum pressure of 932 mbar (27.5 inHg), yielding estimated winds of 150 miles per hour (240 km/h); this made Patricia the strongest Pacific hurricane on record to strike Mexico.^[11] The record was later surpassed by Hurricane Otis, which became the first Pacific hurricane on record to make landfall at Category 5 intensity, surpassing Hurricane Patricia accordingly.^[12]

Morgerman provided the only observed over-land pressure with Hurricane Willa's Mexican landfall in 2018. He observed a value of 968 mbar (28.6 inHg), corroborating the NHC's landfall intensity of 115 miles per hour (185 km/h).^[13]

In 2016, Morgerman collaborated with meteorologist Andrew Hagen and Mexican researchers Erik Sereno Trabaldo and Jorge Abelardo González to reanalyze the 1959 Mexico hurricane, then considered to be the strongest landfalling hurricane on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Their analysis determined the storm to have been significantly weaker than originally estimated and resulted in its downgrade from a Category 5 to a Category 4. These revisions were later incorporated into the NHC's Hurricane Database.^[14] In 2017, Morgerman co-authored an academic paper published by the American Meteorological Society on the intensity of 2015's Hurricane Patricia. He provided in-situ data describing the structure of the storm and allowing for a more thorough analysis of its landfall.^[15]

Typhoon Haiyan (2013)

On November 7, 2013, Morgerman flew with fellow chasers James Reynolds and Mark Thomas to Tacloban City in the Philippines to intercept one of the most powerful typhoons in the 21st century: Typhoon Haiyan.

They initially planned to ride out the storm south of the city, where the eye would ultimately make landfall; however, owing to a lack of sturdy shelters they opted to stay in Tacloban itself.^[6] They set up at a four-story concrete hotel about 26 ft (7.9 m) above sea level.^[6][155] The chasers came prepared with a week's-worth of food and water. Around 6:45 a.m. local time, the northern eyewall began battering Tacloban and winds rapidly became violent. Morgerman described the winds to have a "tornado-like quality" at times. Windows and doors at the hotel blew out and the roof was torn off. Trees in the region were completely defoliated. Around 7:50 a.m. a powerful storm surge swept through the city, with flood waters reaching a depth of 4 ft (1.2 m) at Morgerman's location.

The fast-rising nature of the water incited panic, residents sheltering at the hotel scrambled to the building's second floor and some broke windows to escape their rooms. Morgerman jumped into the water to help people get from flooding rooms to the stairs. Thomas severely injured his leg in the water while assisting trapped people.^[6]

Morgerman described the experience as traumatizing, witnessing the total devastation of Tacloban, bodies strewn across the streets, and "a city spiraling out of control".^[6] The crew was stuck in Tacloban for three days, eventually "escaping" on November 10 by which time the Philippine military arrived with relief supplies.^[155] Morgerman observed a minimum pressure of 959.9 mbar (28.35 inHg) in the eyewall of Haiyan. Extrapolating from his second measurement of 960.4 mbar (28.36 inHg), he estimated the central pressure to have been below 900 mbar (27 inHg).^[39]

On November 5, 2023, Morgerman returned to the Philippines and met with Reynolds and Thomas in Tacloban City a day later to commemorate the 10th anniversary of the cyclone hitting the city.^[156] They returned to the hotel that they rode the storm out in, and the hotel celebrated their return with a banner welcoming them back to the city.^[157] Morgerman revisited locations that were memorable to him from his time chasing Haiyan and reviewed the city's recovery since then.^[158] He also visited a burial site where hundreds of unidentified bodies were buried following the storm.^[159] The trio also attended a commemoration ceremony at the Tacloban City Convention Center for the cyclone's victims and met with locals who remembered them from their time in the city, and later attended a lunch banquet with President Bongbong Marcos.^[160] They also planted mangroves on an island the San Juanico Strait to "replace the ones lost in Haiyan".^[161] Morgerman also visited a family who he had met during the storm and whom he had helped rescue their eldest daughter out of the water.^[162]

Hurricane Odile (2014)

In September 2014, Morgerman intercepted Hurricane Odile in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Successfully entering the eye, he recorded a pressure of 943.1 mbar (27.85 inHg).^[41] Operational assessments of the hurricane's landfall intensity were taken into account for the release of catastrophe bonds funded by Wall Street and the World Bank. The bond system guaranteed a payout of $50 million for a storm with a pressure under 932 mbar (27.5 inHg); Odile's operational estimate was 930 mbar (27 inHg). However, his observations "upend[ed] the system" and the bonds were rescinded. This prevented vital recovery funds from being provided to the Government of Mexico.^[163] The hurricane caused extensive damage throughout Baja California Sur, with insured losses estimated at $1.2 billion.^[164] Industry experts later expressed concern over possible conflicts of interest with storm chasers and the catastrophe bonds.^[163][164]

Hurricane Dorian (2019)

On August 31, 2019, Morgerman flew to Marsh Harbour, in the Bahamas to intercept Category 5 Hurricane Dorian.^[165] Initially staging his chase in Treasure Cay, he ultimate chose to ride out the storm at Central Abaco Primary School—a designated concrete shelter—in Marsh Harbour.^[166][167] At 11:40 a.m. EDT on September 1, Morgerman reported board to be flying off the structures windows and children being wrapped in blankets for safety.^[168] After tweeting this information, contact with Morgerman lost for two days before he was able to contact the Weather Channel.^[166]

Around 2:00 p.m. EDT, Hurricane Dorian made landfall over the Abaco Islands with maximum sustained winds of 185 miles per hour (298 km/h), making it the strongest such storm on record in the Bahamas.^[169] The eyewall of Dorian proved exceptionally violent, battering the school with "the force of a thousand sledgehammers".^[170] He and others sheltering at the school held furniture against window shutters to prevent them from blowing in.^[171] The school was largely destroyed in the first half of the hurricane, forcing Morgerman and those sheltering inside to evacuate to a sturdier government building during the calm of the eye.^[166] During the eye, he recorded a pressure of 913.4 mbar (26.97 inHg), the lowest in his career.^[69] Hundreds of residents, many injured during the storm, sought refuge in the structure for the second half of the hurricane.^[166] After living in his car for two days, Morgerman arrived in Nassau by helicopter on September 3 before returning to the United States. He described Dorian as a "nuclear-grade hurricane" and "the most intense cyclone I’ve witnessed in 28 years of chasing".^[166][171]

Hurricane Melissa (2025)

On October 25, 2025, Morgerman flew to Montego Bay, Jamaica to intercept Category 5 Hurricane Melissa, his first chase in the country.^[172] Morgerman staged in Mandeville so that he could be central and near coastal locations as at the time it was unclear where Melissa might make landfall.^[173] Three days later Morgerman relocated to Crawford in Saint Elizabeth Parish, where he sheltered in a hotel, and he would ride out the storm there with a local family in the hotel's kitchen.^{[174][175][176]}

At 10:25 a.m., Morgerman sent his last tweet before landfall at approximately 1:00 p.m. in which wrote: "Frightening power. Whiteout. Roofs teaing off. Gusts like bombs going off. Painful ears. Praise the lord for solid concrete." [sic]^[177][178] Morgerman was not heard from for more than 24 hours until 8:03 p.m. the following day when Jamaican parliamentarian Floyd Green posted on Twitter that he had met Morgerman in Black River.^[179] An hour later, Morgerman posted to his own Twitter again in which he described how he rode out the storm in the hotel and that he was aware of two deaths in Crawford, one of a man who died from a heart attack in a school next door and a woman who drowned in storm surge on the beach. Morgerman wrote that Melissa was "perhaps the mightiest hurricane" he had witnessed and that through his meeting with Green that he had been inspired to "spread awareness of this catastrophe and get that aid flowing in".^[175] In the days after the hurricane Morgerman interviewed various survivors of the storm such as a man who survived by floating on a piece of Styrofoam and clinging to a tree, a woman who was thrown by the wind, and a couple who sheltered under a concrete table.^[176]