2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate majority leader since 2015 and had represented Kentucky in the Senate since 1985, won reelection to a seventh term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.
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November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 59.7%  | ||||||||||||||||
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   McConnell: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McGrath: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville.[1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early; this figure was far greater than usual.[2]
Despite being outraised by tens of millions of dollars by McGrath, McConnell defeated McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. senator and Senate majority leader[3][4]
Eliminated in primary
- Nicholas Alsager[5]
- Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor[5] (switched to independent write-in candidacy after losing primary)[6]
- Louis Grider, truck driver[5]
- Neren James[5]
- Kenneth Lowndes[5]
- C. Wesley Morgan, former state representative[7]
Withdrawn
Results
McConnell—>90%
McConnell—80–90%
McConnell—70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 342,660 | 82.80% | |
| Republican | C. Wesley Morgan | 25,588 | 6.18% | |
| Republican | Louis Grider | 13,771 | 3.33% | |
| Republican | Paul John Frangedakis | 11,957 | 2.89% | |
| Republican | Neren James | 10,693 | 2.58% | |
| Republican | Kenneth Lowndes | 5,548 | 1.34% | |
| Republican | Nicholas Alsager | 3,603 | 0.87% | |
| Total votes | 413,820 | 100.0% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Amy McGrath, former U.S. Marine fighter pilot and 2018 Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district[11][12]
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
- Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor[19] (endorsed Mike Broihier)[20] (remained on ballot)
- Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician[21] (endorsed Charles Booker)[22]
- Joshua Paul Edwards[23][8]
- Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University[9][8]
- Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble[24][8]
Declined
- Rocky Adkins, former minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[25]
- Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, former attorney general of Kentucky, and son of former governor Steve Beshear[26][27][28]
- Steve Beshear, former governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996[26]
- Jack Conway, former attorney general of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010, nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015[26]
- Adam Edelen, former state auditor and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019[26]
- Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville[29]
- Jim Gray, Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, former mayor of Lexington and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016[30]
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, former secretary of state of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014[26] (endorsed Booker)
- Matt Jones, attorney, media personality, and restaurateur (had formed an exploratory committee beforehand, endorsed Booker)[31][32]
Campaign
There were debates on March 5, 2020[33][34] and June 1, 2020.[35][36]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Charles Booker |
Amy McGrath |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress[37][A] | June 10–22, 2020 | 556 (LV) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 10% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang[38][B] | June 16–18, 2020 | – | – | 32% | 42% | – | – |
| Civiqs/Data for Progress[39] | June 13–15, 2020 | 421 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 44% | 36% | 9%[b] | 11% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[40][C] | June 8–12, 2020 | 313 (RV) | ± 7.0% | 39% | 49% | 6%[c] | 3% |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[41][C] | May 2020 | –[d] | – | 13% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[41][C] | April 2020 | –[d] | – | 11% | 62% | – | – |
| YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[41][C] | January 2020 | –[d] | – | 7% | 65% | – | – |
Endorsements
Charles Booker
U.S. senators
- Jesse Jackson Sr., D.C. (1991–1997)[42]
- Bernie Sanders, Vermont (2007–present)[43]
U.S. representatives
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, NY-14 (2019–present)[44]
Statewide officials
- Alison Lundergan Grimes, former secretary of state of Kentucky (2012–2020) and Democratic nominee for this seat in 2014[45]
- State legislators
- Gerald Neal, state senator from the 33rd district (1989–present)[46]
- Reggie Thomas, state senator from the 13th district (2014–present)[46]
Individuals
- Nick Offerman, actor[citation needed]
Labor unions
Organizations
- Democracy for America[49]
- Friends of the Earth Action[50]
- Indivisible movement[49]
- Kentuckians for the Commonwealth[51]
- MoveOn[49]
- Political parties
Newspapers
Mike Broihier
State legislators
- Richard Ojeda, state senator from West Virginia's 7th district (2016–2019)[54]
Individuals
- Marianne Williamson, author and 2020 presidential candidate[55]
- Andrew Yang, entrepreneur and 2020 presidential candidate[56]
- Wendell Berry, author[57]
Organizations
Amy McGrath
Results
McGrath—60–70%
McGrath—50–60%
McGrath—40–50%
Booker—40–50%
Booker—50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Amy McGrath | 247,037 | 45.41% | |
| Democratic | Charles Booker | 231,888 | 42.62% | |
| Democratic | Mike Broihier | 27,175 | 4.99% | |
| Democratic | Mary Ann Tobin | 11,108 | 2.04% | |
| Democratic | Maggie Joe Hilliard | 6,224 | 1.14% | |
| Democratic | Andrew Maynard | 5,974 | 1.10% | |
| Democratic | Bennie J. Smith | 5,040 | 0.93% | |
| Democratic | Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn) | 3,629 | 0.67% | |
| Democratic | Eric Rothmuller | 2,995 | 0.55% | |
| Democratic | John R. Sharpensteen | 2,992 | 0.55% | |
| Total votes | 544,062 | 100.0% | ||
Other candidates
Libertarian primary
The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate.[65][66] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.[67]
Nominee
- Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur[68]
Reform Party
Withdrawn
Independents
Declared
Withdrawn
- Alyssa Dara McDowell, independent candidate for president in 2016, 2018 Independent nominee for Kentucky House of Representatives District 65[70][8]
General election
Throughout the general election campaign, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist". He highlighted a comment McGrath made in 2018 in which she compared her reaction to Donald Trump's 2016 presidential victory to her reaction to the September 11 attacks.[71]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 12, 2020 - C-SPAN
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[72] | Likely R | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[73] | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[74] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[75] | Safe R | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[76] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[77] | Likely R | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[78] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[79] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[80] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
Additional general election endorsements
Amy McGrath (D)
U.S. Senators
- Kirsten Gillibrand, New York (2009–present); former 2020 presidential candidate[81]
- Kamala Harris, California (2017–2021)[82]
U.S. Representatives
- Seth Moulton, MA-6 (2015–present)[83]
State officials
- Andy Beshear, governor of Kentucky (2019–present)[84]
Individuals
- Ann Coulter, media pundit (Republican)[85]
- Alex Kurtzman, producer, writer and director[86]
Organizations
Unions
Polling
Graphical summary
View source data.
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Amy McGrath (D) |
Brad Barron (L) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable[93] | October 23 – November 1, 2020 | 365 (LV) | ± 7.9% | 49% | 46% | 5% | – |
| Morning Consult[94] | October 22–31, 2020 | 911 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 40% | – | – |
| Bluegrass Community & Technical College[95] | October 12–28, 2020 | 250 (RV) | – | 50% | 40% | – | 10%[e] |
| Cygnal[96] | October 19–20, 2020 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 40% | 5% | 5%[f] |
| Mason-Dixon[97] | October 12–15, 2020 | 625 (LV) | ± 4% | 51% | 42% | 4% | 3%[g] |
| Morning Consult[98] | September 11–20, 2020 | 746 (LV) | ± (2% – 7%) | 52% | 37% | – | – |
| Data for Progress (D)[99] | September 14–19, 2020 | 807 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46%[h] | 39% | 3% | 12%[i] |
| 48%[j] | 41% | – | 11%[k] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[100] | September 10–14, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 41% | – | 5%[l] |
| Quinnipiac University[101] | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 909 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 49% | 44% | – | 7%[m] |
| Bluegrass Data (D)[102][D] | July 25–29, 2020 | 3,020 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 4% | – |
| Morning Consult[103] | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 793 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 36% | – | 12%[n] |
| Spry Strategies (R)[104][E] | July 11–16, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 33% | – | 12%[i] |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[105][B] | July 7–12, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 41% | 7% | 7%[o] |
| Civiqs/Data for Progress[39] | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 33% | 4% | 11%[p] |
| RMG Research[106][F] | May 21–24, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 40% | 41% | – | 19%[q] |
| Bluegrass Data (D)[102][D] | April 7–12, 2020[r] | 4,000 (RV) | – | 40% | 38% | 7% | – |
| Change Research (D)[107][B] | January 17–21, 2020 | 1,281 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[108][B] | January 8–13, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 40% | – | 17% |
| Fabrizio Ward[109][G] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Change Research (D)[110][B] | June 15–16, 2019 | 1,629 (LV) | – | 47% | 45% | – | 8% |
Hypothetical polling
with Charles Booker
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Charles Booker (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs/Data for Progress[39] | June 13–15, 2020 | 898 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 52% | 38% | 9%[s] |
with Jim Gray
with Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mitch McConnell (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[112] | May 14–15, 2020 | 1,104 (V) | – | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[113][H] | Feb 11–12, 2019 | 748 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 42% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[114][I] | Aug 15–16, 2017 | 645 (V) | – | 37% | 44% | 19% |
on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal[96] | October 19–20, 2020 | 640 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 55% | 39% | 6%[u] |
| Quinnipiac University[100] | September 10–14, 2020 | 1,164 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 38% | 8%[v] |
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP[116] | July 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 42% | 13%[w] |
Results
McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3.[117] When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea; he said, "At the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close."[118][119] He won the election by nearly 20%.[120][121][122]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mitch McConnell (incumbent) | 1,233,315 | 57.76% | +1.57% | |
| Democratic | Amy McGrath | 816,257 | 38.23% | −2.49% | |
| Libertarian | Brad Barron | 85,386 | 4.00% | +0.92% | |
| Write-in | 99 | 0.01% | -0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 2,135,057 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By congressional district
McConnell won five of Kentucky's six congressional districts.[124]
| District | McConnell | McGrath | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 67% | 28% | James Comer |
| 2nd | 62% | 33% | Brett Guthrie |
| 3rd | 37% | 61% | John Yarmuth |
| 4th | 60% | 36% | Thomas Massie |
| 5th | 74% | 22% | Hal Rogers |
| 6th | 51% | 46% | Andy Barr |
Analysis
McGrath raised a record-setting $94 million for her campaign. She raised $63 million more than any prior candidate had ever raised for a Kentucky political campaign. According to New Republic, she outraised McConnell by $27 million.[125] According to The Hill, she outraised McConnell by more than $32 million.[122]
Michael Sokolove of New Republic asserted that "Amy McGrath and other Senate candidates deceived donors to rake in far more cash than their Republican opponents. They got crushed anyway".[125]
See also
Notes
Partisan clients
- Poll released after the primary in July
- Poll sponsored by McGrath's campaign
- Poll sponsored by Booker's campaign
- This poll's sponsor, Ditch Mitch Fund, supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
- This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
- Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits, a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
- Poll sponsored by The Ditch Mitch Fund
- Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line
Voter samples
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Broihier and "someone else" with 4%; Tobin with 1%
- Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
- Not yet released
- Undecided with 10%
- Undecided with 5%
- Undecided with 3%
- Standard VI response
- Undecided with 12%
- If only McConnell and McGrath were candidates
- Undecided with 11%
- "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
- "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
- "Someone else" and Undecided with 6%
- Undecided with 7%
- "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
- Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
- Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
- Undecided with 6%
- Undecided with 8%
- Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%