Opinion polling for United States presidential elections
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Gallup was the first organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.[1][2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner.[3] However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012.[3] The month section in the tables represents the month in which the opinion poll was conducted. D represents the Democratic Party, and R represents the Republican Party. Third parties, such as the Dixiecrats and the Reform Party, were included in some polls.[4]
1936
| Month | Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) % | Alf Landon (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| July | 49% | 45% |
| August | 49% | 45% |
| 49% | 45% | |
| 49% | 44% | |
| September | 49% | 45% |
| 50% | 44% | |
| October | 51% | 44% |
| 51% | 44% | |
| 56% | 44% | |
| Actual result | 60.80% | 36.54% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +4.80% | -7.46% |
After predicting the winners of the previous five elections, The Literary Digest (based on cards mailed in by its readers) predicted that Alf Landon would win by a large margin. George Gallup predicted a Franklin D. Roosevelt win, based on statistical random sampling within 1.1 percent of the Literary Digest results.
The accuracy of Gallup's forecasts indicated the value of modern statistical methods; according to data collected in the Gallup poll, the Literary Digest poll failed primarily due to non-response bias (Roosevelt won 69 percent of Literary Digest readers who did not participate in the poll) rather than selection bias as commonly believed. Roosevelt won 57 percent of Literary Digest readers who received the poll.[5] Roosevelt won in the largest landslide since the uncontested 1820 election, winning every state except Maine and Vermont, since his New Deal programs were popular with the American people (apart from the respondents to the Literary Digest poll). Although Landon said that the New Deal was costly and ineffective and Roosevelt was slowly molding the United States into a dictatorship, his attacks gained little traction.[6]
1940
| Month | Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) % | Wendell Willkie (R)% |
|---|---|---|
| July | 48% | 42% |
| 44% | 43% | |
| August | 45% | 43% |
| 46% | 44% | |
| September | 49% | 40% |
| October | 50% | 40% |
| 51% | 42% | |
| 52% | 48% | |
| Actual result | 54.72% | 44.77% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +2.72% | -3.23% |
Throughout his campaign, Roosevelt promised to continue the New Deal and not bring the United States into any new wars if he was given another term. Wendell Willkie unsuccessfully attacked Roosevelt for seeking a third term and accused him of trying to turn the United States into a dictatorship by refusing to leave office. Roosevelt led in all polls, and was re-elected by a large margin.[7]
1944
| Month | Franklin D. Roosevelt (D) % | Thomas E. Dewey (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| March | 55% | 41% |
| 53% | 42% | |
| April | 48% | 46% |
| May | 48% | 47% |
| 50% | 45% | |
| June | 51% | 45% |
| 51% | 44% | |
| July | 46% | 45% |
| 49% | 41% | |
| August | 47% | 42% |
| 47% | 45% | |
| September | 47% | 42% |
| 50% | 45% | |
| 48% | 41% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| October | 48% | 47% |
| 50% | 47% | |
| November | 51% | 48% |
| Actual result | 53.39% | 45.89% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +2.39% | -2.11% |
Roosevelt actively campaigned in this election against medical advice to counter Republican claims that he was near death. Roosevelt maintained a consistent (although sometimes narrow) lead in the polls, and won a solid victory due to American success in World War II and his continued popularity.[8]
1948
| Month | Harry S. Truman (D) % | Thomas E. Dewey (R) % | Henry A. Wallace (Progressive) % | Strom Thurmond (Dixiecrat) % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 1947/January 1948 | 46% | 41% | 7% | |
| February/March | 39% | 47% | 7% | |
| April/May | ||||
| June/July | 38% | 49% | 6% | |
| 37% | 48% | 5% | ||
| August/September | 37% | 48% | 4% | 2% |
| 36% | 49% | 5% | 3% | |
| 39% | 47% | 3% | 2% | |
| 39% | 47% | 3% | 2% | |
| 40% | 46% | 4% | 2% | |
| October[9] | 45% | 50% | 4% | 2% |
| Actual result | 49.55% | 45.07% | 2.37% | 2.41% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +4.55% | -4.93% | -1.63% | +0.41% |
While incumbent President Harry S. Truman's popularity was low at the end of 1946, it improved with his attack on the "Do-Nothing" Republican Congress of 1947–1948 and his association of Thomas E. Dewey with it. Truman also energized segments of the Democratic base by ending segregation in the military and recognizing Israel.[10] Gallup and other polling organizations stopped polling in mid-October, believing that Dewey would win the election, and failed to predict Truman's comeback or his subsequent victory.[2]
1952
| Month | Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) % | Adlai Stevenson II (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| June | 59% | 31% |
| July | 50% | 43% |
| August | ||
| September | 55% | 40% |
| 55% | 41% | |
| October | 53% | 41% |
| 51% | 38% | |
| 48% | 39% | |
| 48% | 39% | |
| 51% | 49% | |
| Actual result | 55.14% | 44.38% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +4.14% | -4.62% |
Dissatisfaction with the Korean War, corruption and the threat of Communism (the K1c2 formula) allowed World War II hero Dwight D. Eisenhower to win the election in a landslide against Democratic opponent Adlai Stevenson II after consistently leading in the polls, mostly by large margins.[11]
1956
| Month | Dwight D. Eisenhower (R) % | Adlai Stevenson II (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| December 1955/January 1956 | 61% | 35% |
| February/March | 63% | 33% |
| April/May | 61% | 37% |
| 62% | 33% | |
| 62% | 35% | |
| June/July | 62% | 35% |
| 61% | 37% | |
| August/September | 52% | 41% |
| 52% | 41% | |
| 52% | 40% | |
| October/November | 51% | 41% |
| 59% | 40% | |
| Actual result | 57.37% | 41.97% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -1.63% | +1.97% |
After consistently leading in the polls by large margins, incumbent President Eisenhower was easily re-elected due to economic prosperity at home and the end of the Korean War abroad.[12][13]
1960
| Month | John F. Kennedy (D) % | Richard Nixon (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| December 1959/January 1960 | 43% | 48% |
| February/March | 48% | 48% |
| 50% | 45% | |
| April/May | 51% | 44% |
| 48% | 47% | |
| 47% | 49% | |
| June/July | 50% | 46% |
| August/September | 44% | 50% |
| 47% | 47% | |
| 48% | 47% | |
| 46% | 47% | |
| October/November | 49% | 46% |
| 49% | 45% | |
| 51% | 49% | |
| Actual result | 49.72% | 49.55% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -1.28% | +0.55% |
Polls throughout the campaign indicated a very close race. Vice President Richard Nixon initially led, but then had problems (a poor image in the first television debate and a knee injury which prevented him from campaigning) which gave Senator John F. Kennedy—the Democratic candidate, the lead in the polls for most of the campaign. In the end, Kennedy had an extremely close victory.[14]
1964
| Month | Lyndon B. Johnson (D) % | Barry Goldwater (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| June | 77% | 18% |
| 76% | 20% | |
| July | 62% | 26% |
| 59% | 31% | |
| August | 65% | 29% |
| September | 65% | 29% |
| 62% | 32% | |
| October | 64% | 29% |
| 64% | 36% | |
| Actual result | 61.05% | 38.47% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -2.95% | +2.47% |
President Johnson maintained a large lead in the polls and won a full term in a landslide due to popular sympathy after the assassination of President Kennedy, a good economy, lack of severe foreign problems, and an effective campaign to portray Goldwater as a dangerous, out-of-touch extremist.[citation needed]
1968
| Month | Richard Nixon (R) % | Hubert Humphrey [a] (D) % | George Wallace (American Independent) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | 43% | 34% | 9% |
| May | 39% | 36% | 14% |
| 36% | 42% | 14% | |
| June | 37% | 42% | 14% |
| July | 35% | 40% | 16% |
| 40% | 38% | 16% | |
| August | 45% | 29% | 18% |
| September | 43% | 31% | 19% |
| 43% | 28% | 21% | |
| 44% | 29% | 20% | |
| October | 44% | 36% | 15% |
| November | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Actual result | 43.42% | 42.72% | 13.53% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +0.42% | +0.72% | -1.47% |
Initially, President Johnson had been the early frontrunner for the Democratic Party's nomination. However, after he only narrowly won the New Hampshire primary, he eventually withdrew form the race, and Vice President Hubert Humphrey was proclaimed the Democratic nominee. The campaign was always close according to the polls, but after the tumultuous 1968 Democratic National Convention, former Vice President Richard Nixon—the Republican candidate, established and maintained a lead. Former Governor of Alabama George Wallace—the American Independent candidate, ran in opposition to civil rights and in support of segregation and received considerable support in the South. Humphrey began catching up to Nixon in the polls late in the campaign, but ran out of time as Nixon won a narrow victory.[citation needed]
1972
| Month | Richard Nixon (R) % | George McGovern (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| May | 53% | 34% |
| June | 53% | 37% |
| July | 56% | 37% |
| August | 57% | 31% |
| 64% | 30% | |
| September | 61% | 33% |
| October | 60% | 34% |
| 59% | 36% | |
| November | 62% | 38% |
| Actual result | 60.67% | 37.52% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -1.33% | -0.48% |
President Nixon was re-elected in a landslide, winning every state except Massachusetts after maintaining a large poll lead due to the economic recovery from the 1969–1970 recession and his portrayal of Senator George McGovern—the Democratic candidate, as a foreign-policy lightweight and social radical ("amnesty, abortion, and acid"). McGovern was also hurt by his change of vice-presidential candidates in mid-campaign, raising questions about his judgement.[15]
1976
| Month | Jimmy Carter (D) % | Gerald Ford (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| March | 47% | 42% |
| 48% | 46% | |
| 48% | 46% | |
| April | 48% | 43% |
| May | 52% | 42% |
| 53% | 40% | |
| June | 55% | 37% |
| 53% | 36% | |
| July | 62% | 29% |
| August | 54% | 32% |
| 51% | 36% | |
| September | 51% | 40% |
| October | 47% | 45% |
| 47% | 41% | |
| 48% | 49% | |
| Actual result | 50.08% | 48.01% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +2.08% | -0.99% |
Former Governor of Georgia Jimmy Carter—the Democratic candidate, opened up a large lead over President Ford due to dissatisfaction with Watergate, Ford's pardon of former president Richard Nixon and the sluggish economy. Ford closed the gap near the end of the campaign with good debate performances, among other things. He was hurt by his comment that there was no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and ran out of time to close the polling gap with Carter, who won by a narrow margin.[citation needed]
1980
| Month | Ronald Reagan (R) % | Jimmy Carter (D) % | John B. Anderson (I) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 1979/January 1980 | 33% | 62% | |
| February/March | 31% | 60% | |
| 33% | 58% | ||
| 34% | 40% | 21% | |
| April/May | 34% | 41% | 18% |
| 32% | 38% | 21% | |
| 32% | 40% | 21% | |
| June/July | 32% | 39% | 21% |
| 33% | 35% | 24% | |
| 37% | 32% | 22% | |
| 37% | 34% | 21% | |
| August/September | 45% | 29% | 14% |
| 38% | 39% | 13% | |
| 39% | 39% | 14% | |
| October/November | 40% | 44% | 9% |
| 39% | 45% | 9% | |
| 47% | 44% | 8% | |
| Actual result | 50.75% | 41.01% | 6.61% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +3.75% | -2.99% | -1.39% |
During primary season, President Carter held a steady lead over former Governor of California Ronald Reagan—the Republican front-runner, despite a primary challenge from Senator Ted Kennedy. Reagan and GE spokesman, passed Carter in the polls after the primaries, winning over voters dissatisfied with Carter's handling of the economy, the energy crisis, and the Iran hostage crisis. As the race neared its finish, Carter had apparently closed the gap with Reagan; some outlets gave him the lead. Reagan ran an upbeat campaign focused on fixing the economy and restoring America's image, diminished by Watergate and the war in Vietnam. Carter was more negative, attacking Reagan's record on civil rights and social issues. Reagan defeated Carter in a blowout on election night, the third win for Republicans in the past four presidential races.[16]
1984
| Month | Ronald Reagan (R) % | Walter Mondale (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| December 1983/January 1984 | 48% | 47% |
| 53% | 43% | |
| February/March | 52% | 42% |
| 50% | 45% | |
| 52% | 44% | |
| April/May | 54% | 41% |
| 52% | 44% | |
| 50% | 46% | |
| 53% | 43% | |
| June/July | 53% | 44% |
| 55% | 38% | |
| 51% | 43% | |
| 53% | 39% | |
| 53% | 41% | |
| August/September | 52% | 41% |
| 56% | 37% | |
| 58% | 37% | |
| 55% | 39% | |
| October/November | 58% | 38% |
| 56% | 39% | |
| 59% | 41% | |
| Actual result | 58.77% | 40.56% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -0.23% | -0.44% |
President Reagan had low approval ratings early in his first term,[17] but by 1983 the economy had improved enough to give him a boost for re-election. Former Vice President Walter Mondale— the Democratic candidate, who advocated a nuclear freeze, the Equal Rights Amendment and a balanced budget. Mondale benefited from a strong first debate (where the 73-year-old Reagan seemed slow), but Reagan was re-elected in a landslide, winning every state except Minnesota. Reagan again cast himself as the candidate of optimism, taking credit for an improved economy and an increase in national pride after the social upheaval of the 1960s and 1970s. Mondale's unpopular proposal to raise taxes to reduce the deficit and association with the Carter administration's "malaise" largely doomed his campaign from the start.[18]
1988
| Month | George H. W. Bush (R) % | Michael Dukakis (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| March | 52% | 40% |
| April | 45% | 43% |
| May | 38% | 54% |
| June | 38% | 52% |
| 41% | 46% | |
| July | 41% | 47% |
| 37% | 54% | |
| August | 42% | 49% |
| September | 49% | 41% |
| 47% | 42% | |
| October | 50% | 40% |
| November | 56% | 44% |
| Actual result | 53.37% | 45.65% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -2.63% | +1.65% |
Although Governor of Massachusetts Michael Dukakis—the Democratic candidate, took a large lead in the initial polls, Vice President George H. W. Bush's campaign portrayed him as soft on crime and used the good economy, President Reagan's popularity and Bush's no new taxes pledge to close the gap and eventually take a large lead. Bush easily won the general election.[citation needed]
1992
| Month | Bill Clinton (D) % | George H. W. Bush (R) % | Ross Perot (I) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| March | 25% | 44% | 24% |
| April | 26% | 41% | 25% |
| May | 29% | 35% | 30% |
| 25% | 35% | 35% | |
| June | 26% | 30% | 38% |
| 25% | 31% | 39% | |
| 24% | 24% | 37% | |
| 24% | 32% | 34% | |
| 27% | 33% | 32% | |
| July | 40% | 48% | Candidate withdrew from race |
| 56% | 34% | ||
| 56% | 36% | ||
| 57% | 32% | ||
| August | 56% | 37% | |
| 50% | 39% | ||
| 52% | 42% | ||
| September | 54% | 39% | |
| 51% | 42% | ||
| 50% | 40% | ||
| 54% | 38% | ||
| 51% | 35% | 8% | |
| October | 47% | 35% | 10% |
| 50% | 34% | 9% | |
| 51% | 33% | 10% | |
| 46% | 34% | 13% | |
| 47% | 34% | 14% | |
| 47% | 29% | 15% | |
| 44% | 32% | 17% | |
| 41% | 30% | 20% | |
| 42% | 31% | 19% | |
| 40% | 38% | 16% | |
| 41% | 40% | 14% | |
| 43% | 36% | 15% | |
| November | 49% | 37% | 14% |
| Actual result | 43.01% | 37.45% | 18.91% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -5.99% | +0.45% | +4.91% |
The polls fluctuated during the spring and early summer, with President Bush and businessman Ross Perot—the independent candidate, trading the lead. Perot withdrew from the race in July, however, and Governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton—the Democratic candidate, took a consistent lead in the polls by blaming Bush for the poor economy and promising that he would fix it ("It's the economy, stupid"). Although Perot returned to the race in September, he could not regain his previous support and Clinton won the general election by a comfortable margin.[citation needed]
1996
| Month | Bill Clinton (D) % | Bob Dole (R) % | Ross Perot (Reform) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 43% | 39% | 16% |
| February | |||
| March | 47% | 34% | 17% |
| April | 49% | 35% | 15% |
| May | 47% | 32% | 19% |
| 49% | 35% | 15% | |
| June | 49% | 33% | 17% |
| July | 50% | 33% | 12% |
| 50% | 35% | 10% | |
| August | 52% | 30% | 12% |
| 48% | 39% | 7% | |
| 50% | 38% | 7% | |
| 51% | 38% | 7% | |
| 55% | 34% | 6% | |
| September | 53% | 36% | 5% |
| 54% | 36% | 4% | |
| 55% | 34% | 5% | |
| 55% | 34% | 5% | |
| 55% | 32% | 6% | |
| 51% | 34% | 8% | |
| 50% | 36% | 6% | |
| 52% | 36% | 4% | |
| 53% | 34% | 6% | |
| 51% | 38% | 5% | |
| 49% | 39% | 6% | |
| 51% | 37% | 6% | |
| 57% | 32% | 5% | |
| October | 53% | 36% | 6% |
| 51% | 39% | 5% | |
| 55% | 35% | 5% | |
| 55% | 34% | 6% | |
| 51% | 38% | 5% | |
| 56% | 35% | 4% | |
| 48% | 39% | 5% | |
| 51% | 36% | 8% | |
| 54% | 35% | 6% | |
| 52% | 33% | 8% | |
| 53% | 34% | 6% | |
| 54% | 34% | 7% | |
| 49% | 37% | 7% | |
| 51% | 35% | 10% | |
| 50% | 37% | 7% | |
| November | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| Actual result | 49.24% | 40.71% | 8.40% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -2.76% | -0.29% | +1.40% |
President Clinton held a comfortable lead in the polls throughout the campaign due to the good economy, stable international situation, and tying former Senator Bob Dole—his Republican challenger to Newt Gingrich (the unpopular speaker of the House), easily won re-election.[citation needed]
2000
| Month | George W. Bush (R) % | Al Gore (D) % | Ralph Nader (Green) % |
|---|---|---|---|
| April | 47% | 41% | 4% |
| May | |||
| June | 46% | 41% | 6% |
| 50% | 38% | 6% | |
| July | 45% | 43% | 5% |
| 50% | 39% | 4% | |
| August | 54% | 37% | 4% |
| 55% | 39% | 2% | |
| 46% | 47% | 3% | |
| 46% | 45% | 3% | |
| September | 44% | 47% | 3% |
| 46% | 45% | 2% | |
| 42% | 49% | 3% | |
| 41% | 49% | 4% | |
| 42% | 49% | 2% | |
| 41% | 49% | 3% | |
| 44% | 48% | 2% | |
| 41% | 51% | 3% | |
| 42% | 50% | 2% | |
| 47% | 44% | 2% | |
| 46% | 44% | 2% | |
| 46% | 44% | 3% | |
| 45% | 45% | 4% | |
| October | 41% | 49% | 2% |
| 40% | 51% | 2% | |
| 48% | 41% | 4% | |
| 50% | 42% | 4% | |
| 45% | 45% | 2% | |
| 45% | 45% | 3% | |
| 48% | 43% | 2% | |
| 47% | 44% | 3% | |
| 51% | 40% | 4% | |
| 44% | 46% | 4% | |
| 49% | 42% | 3% | |
| 52% | 39% | 4% | |
| 49% | 42% | 3% | |
| 47% | 44% | 3% | |
| 47% | 43% | 4% | |
| November | 47% | 43% | 4% |
| 48% | 46% | 4% | |
| Actual result | 47.86% | 48.38% | 2.74% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -0.14% | +2.38% | -1.26% |
The election was close throughout the campaign; Vice President Al Gore used the good economy to his advantage, but was hurt by being perceived as robotic and pompous. During later months, polls flip-flopped between him and Republican candidate Governor of Texas George W. Bush, and Bush won a narrow victory in the electoral college, although polling was correct in predicting the winner of the popular vote.
2004
| Month | George W. Bush (R) % | John Kerry (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| March | 44% | 50% |
| 49% | 45% | |
| April | 47% | 43% |
| 50% | 44% | |
| May | 47% | 47% |
| 47% | 45% | |
| 46% | 47% | |
| June | 43% | 49% |
| 48% | 47% | |
| July | 45% | 50% |
| 46% | 47% | |
| 51% | 45% | |
| August | 48% | 46% |
| 48% | 46% | |
| September | 52% | 45% |
| 52% | 44% | |
| October | 49% | 49% |
| 48% | 49% | |
| 52% | 44% | |
| 51% | 46% | |
| 49% | 49% | |
| Actual result | 50.73% | 48.27% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +1.73% | -0.73% |
The election was closely contested, as dissatisfaction with the Bush administration's handling of the Iraq War and a sluggish economy helped Senator John Kerry—his Democratic challenger. President Bush accused Kerry of flip-flopping, however,[19] and the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth accused Kerry of being unpatriotic. A week before the election, al-Qaeda released a video warning Americans not to re-elect Bush. Bush's poll ratings in swing states then gave him a comfortable lead, and he was re-elected.[4]
2008
| Month | Barack Obama (D) % | John McCain (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| March | 46% | 44% |
| 43% | 47% | |
| April | 46% | 43% |
| 45% | 45% | |
| May | 42% | 48% |
| 47% | 43% | |
| 44% | 47% | |
| June | 48% | 41% |
| 45% | 45% | |
| July | 48% | 42% |
| 45% | 44% | |
| 49% | 40% | |
| 44% | 44% | |
| August | 48% | 42% |
| 45% | 45% | |
| 50% | 42% | |
| September | 44% | 49% |
| 50% | 44% | |
| 46% | 46% | |
| October | 52% | 41% |
| 49% | 43% | |
| 52% | 42% | |
| 53% | 40% | |
| 53% | 42% | |
| Actual result | 52.93% | 45.65% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | -0.07% | +3.65% |
The campaign was close during the spring and summer, with Senators Barack Obama—the Democratic candidate and John McCain—the Republican candidate, trading the lead. The Great Recession started in December 2007,[20] but Obama was initially hurt in the polls by former First Lady and Senator Hillary Clinton supporters.[21] The Republicans attacked him for being inexperienced,[22] and McCain got a temporary bump in the polls after choosing Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin as his vice-presidential running mate. The 2008 financial crisis allowed Obama to open a consistent, comfortable lead in the polls at the beginning of October, however, and he won the election by a comfortable margin.[4]
2012
| Month | Barack Obama (D) % | Mitt Romney (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| February | 48% | 44% |
| 49% | 43% | |
| 49% | 44% | |
| March | 47% | 45% |
| 48% | 44% | |
| April | 48% | 43% |
| 49% | 43% | |
| 47% | 44% | |
| 48% | 44% | |
| May | 47% | 44% |
| 46% | 46% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| 46% | 44% | |
| June | 48% | 45% |
| 46% | 45% | |
| 47% | 44% | |
| July | 46% | 45% |
| 47% | 45% | |
| 46% | 45% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| August | 48% | 44% |
| 47% | 45% | |
| 47% | 46% | |
| September | 47% | 47% |
| 49% | 45% | |
| 48% | 45% | |
| 49% | 45% | |
| October | 49% | 46% |
| 47% | 48% | |
| 47% | 47% | |
| 47% | 48% | |
| November | 49% | 48% |
| Actual result | 51.06% | 47.20% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +2.06% | -0.80% |
President Obama and his campaign aired early negative ads criticizing former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney—his Republican challenger. While Romney regained some support, several gaffes in addition to Obama's embracement of popularly supported intitiatives such as same-sex marriage legalization maintained Obama's lead throughout most of the campaign. Polling correctly predicted Obama's victory, although he won by a larger margin than predicted for most of the race.
2016
| Month | Donald Trump (R) % | Hillary Clinton (D) % | Gary Johnson (L) % | Jill Stein (G) % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June | 36% | 41% | 7% | 4% |
| 37% | 42% | 8% | 5% | |
| July | 37% | 41% | 7% | 4% |
| 38% | 41% | 9% | 4% | |
| 40% | 40% | 7% | 3% | |
| August | 38% | 42% | 7% | 3% |
| 36% | 44% | 9% | 4% | |
| 37% | 44% | 9% | 3% | |
| 37% | 42% | 9% | 3% | |
| 38% | 42% | 8% | 3% | |
| September | 39% | 41% | 8% | 3% |
| 40% | 42% | 9% | 3% | |
| 40% | 41% | 8% | 3% | |
| 42% | 43% | 7% | 2% | |
| October | 41% | 44% | 7% | 3% |
| 39% | 44% | 7% | 2% | |
| 39% | 46% | 7% | 2% | |
| 40% | 45% | 6% | 2% | |
| November | 43% | 45% | 5% | 2% |
| 42% | 46% | 5% | 2% | |
| Actual result | 46.09% | 48.18% | 3.28% | 1.13% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +4.09% | +2.18% | -1.72% | -0.87% |
Businessman Donald Trump—the Republican candidate and former First Lady, former Senator, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton—the Democratic candidate, were seen unfavorably by many pollsters and pundits, and it was predicted that Trump would lose by a large margin to Democratic opponent Clinton. While pollsters correctly predicted that Clinton would win the popular vote, both candidates outperformed polls, partially due to the overestimation of third-party results.[25]
2020
| Month | Joe Biden (D) % | Donald Trump (R) % |
|---|---|---|
| February | 50% | 45% |
| 50% | 46% | |
| March | 50% | 44% |
| 51% | 44% | |
| 50% | 44% | |
| April | 47% | 42% |
| 48% | 42% | |
| May | 47% | 43% |
| 49% | 44% | |
| 48% | 42% | |
| June | 49% | 42% |
| 50% | 42% | |
| 51% | 41% | |
| 50% | 40% | |
| July | 50% | 41% |
| 49% | 40% | |
| 50% | 41% | |
| 51% | 42% | |
| August | 49% | 42% |
| 50% | 42% | |
| September | 49% | 43% |
| 50% | 43% | |
| 49% | 43% | |
| October | 51% | 42% |
| 52% | 42% | |
| 51% | 43% | |
| November | 51% | 44% |
| Actual result | 51.31% | 46.86% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +0.31% | +2.86% |
Former Vice President Joe Biden led in most national polls throughout the race, but President Trump believed that polls were underestimating his results. Polls correctly predicted that Biden would win the popular vote, and correctly predicted his margin, but Trump's popular vote estimate was significantly underestimated due to his gains among low-propensity respondents.[27]
2024
| Month | Donald Trump (R) % | Kamala Harris[b] (D) % |
|---|---|---|
| February | 46% | 44% |
| 45% | 44% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| March | 48% | 45% |
| 47% | 46% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| April | 47% | 46% |
| 46% | 46% | |
| 45% | 45% | |
| 45% | 44% | |
| 47% | 45% | |
| May | 46% | 45% |
| 47% | 46% | |
| 48% | 46% | |
| June | 46% | 46% |
| 45% | 45% | |
| 46% | 45% | |
| July | 47% | 44% |
| 47% | 45% | |
| 48% | 45% | |
| 48% | 46% | |
| August | 47% | 47% |
| 47% | 48% | |
| September | 46% | 48% |
| 47% | 48% | |
| 47% | 49% | |
| October | 48% | 49% |
| 49% | 49% | |
| 49% | 48% | |
| November | 49% | 49% |
| Actual result | 49.80% | 48.32% |
| Difference between actual result and final poll | +0.80% | -0.68% |
Former President Donald Trump was leading President Biden in the polls since the beginning of the year, mainly due to high inflation and concerns over Biden's age and health. Polls narrowed following Biden's withdrawal from the race and Vice President Kamala Harris's replacement as the Democratic nominee. However, Donald Trump won both the Electoral College and the popular vote. The 2024 U.S. presidential pre-election polls exhibited notable discrepancies, reflecting persistent challenges in U.S. electoral forecasting. It has been suggested that statistically significant directional bias resides in several 2024 polling contexts. Interestingly, the primary source of these biases stems from the underestimation of Republican vote, rather than the overestimation of Democratic support.[29]
Notes
- Lyndon B. Johnson before April