2020 Missouri gubernatorial election
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The 2020 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Parson ran for and was elected to a full term in office.[1] Parson was elected as lieutenant governor in 2016 but became governor on June 1, 2018, after incumbent Eric Greitens resigned under threat of impeachment by the state legislature. Parson declared his bid for a full term on September 8, 2019.[2] State Auditor Nicole Galloway, Missouri's only Democratic statewide officer and only female statewide officer, was the Democratic nominee and if elected, would have become Missouri's first female governor.
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November 3, 2020
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| Turnout | 69.75%  | ||||||||||||||||
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   Parson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Galloway: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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In October 2020, The Washington Post identified this state election as one of eight whose outcomes could affect partisan balance during post-census redistricting.[3]
Despite most news agencies characterizing the race as only leaning Republican, Mike Parson went on to win the election by a landslide of 16.4%, widely outperforming all election polling as well as justifying the former swing state's trend towards the GOP. He even exceeded Donald Trump's statewide victory margin in the concurrent presidential election, which was actually greater than that in neighboring Kansas for the first time in 104 years. Galloway suffered the largest margin of defeat for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Missouri since Betty Hearnes' 29-point loss in 1988. The 1988 election was also the last election until this one in which Missouri elected a Republican for governor by double digits.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mike Parson, incumbent governor of Missouri[4][2] and former state senator
Eliminated in primary
- Saundra McDowell, U.S. Air Force veteran and Republican nominee for Missouri state auditor in 2018[5]
- Jim Neely, state representative from the 8th district[6]
- Raleigh Ritter, rancher and businessman[7]
Declined
- Jay Ashcroft, Missouri Secretary of State[8]
- Eric Greitens, former governor of Missouri[9][10]
- Tony Monetti, retired bomber pilot, assistant dean of aviation at University of Central Missouri, and Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2018[11]
Endorsements
Jim Neely
State officials
- Mike Moon, state representative from the 157th district[12]
- Bryan Spencer, state representative from the 63rd district[12]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Parson |
Eric Greitens |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filing deadline, by which Greitens had not declared his candidacy | ||||||
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[13] | Jan 29–30, 2020 | 1,155 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 22% | 26% |
| American Viewpoint/Uniting Missouri[14][A] | Jan 20–22, 2020 | 1,200 (LV) | – | 56% | 30% | 11% |
Results
Parson
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Parson (incumbent) | 511,566 | 74.93% | |
| Republican | Saundra McDowell | 84,412 | 12.36% | |
| Republican | Jim Neely | 59,514 | 8.72% | |
| Republican | Raleigh Ritter | 27,264 | 3.99% | |
| Total votes | 682,756 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- Sly James, former mayor of Kansas City, Missouri[19]
- Jason Kander, former Missouri Secretary of State, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2016, former candidate for Mayor of Kansas City in 2019[20]
- Claire McCaskill, former U.S. senator[21]
- Scott Sifton, state senator from the 1st district and former state representative from the 96th district (endorsed Galloway)[22]
Endorsements
Nicole Galloway
Federal politicians
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California and 2020 Democratic nominee for vice president[23]
Individuals
- Scott Sifton, state senator[22]
Organizations
Results
Galloway
- >90%
- 80–90%
- 70–80%
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Nicole Galloway | 455,203 | 84.62% | |
| Democratic | Eric Morrison | 32,403 | 6.02% | |
| Democratic | Jimmie Matthews | 20,586 | 3.83% | |
| Democratic | Antoin Johnson | 20,254 | 3.77% | |
| Democratic | Robin Quaethem | 9,481 | 1.76% | |
| Total votes | 537,927 | 100.00% | ||
Other candidates
Libertarian Party
Nominee
- Rik Combs, U.S. Air Force veteran[18]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Rik Combs | 4,171 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 4,171 | 100.00% | ||
Green Party
Nominee
- Jerome Bauer[18]
Results
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[28] | Lean R | October 23, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[29] | Lean R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[30] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Politico[31] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[32] | Likely R | October 28, 2020 |
| RCP[33] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
| 270towin[34] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Parson (R) |
Nicole Galloway (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[35] | October 28–29, 2020 | 1,010 (LV) | ± 3% | 50% | 44% | 5%[b] |
| Cygnal (R)[36] | October 18–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 48% | 42% | 10%[c] |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[37] | October 14–15, 2020 | 1,010 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 43% | 6%[d] |
| YouGov[38] | September 24 – October 7, 2020 | 931 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 50% | 44% | 7%[e] |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[39][B] | September 28 – October 2, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 48% | – |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[40] | September 30 – October 1, 2020 | 980 (LV) | ± 3% | 51% | 44% | 5%[f] |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[41] | September 16–17, 2020 | 1,046 (LV) | ± 3% | 52% | 43% | 5%[g] |
| We Ask America[42] | September 1–3, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 54% | 41% | 5%[h] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[43] | August 26–28, 2020 | 1,015 (LV) | ± 2.99% | 51% | 36% | 13%[i] |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[44] | August 12–13, 2020 | 1,112 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 43% | 7%[j] |
| Saint Louis University[45] | June 23 – July 1, 2020 | 900 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 39% | 20%[k] |
| Garin-Hart-Yang/Missouri Scout (D)[46][B] | June 16–22, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 40% | – |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[47] | June 10–11, 2020 | 1,152 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| We Ask America[48] | May 26–27, 2020 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 39% | 15%[l] |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[49] | April 28–29, 2020 | 1,356 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 52% | 39% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group/Missouri Scout[50] | March 11–12, 2020 | 1,241 (LV) | – | 52% | 39% | 7% |
| American Viewpoint (R)[51][A] | January 20–22, 2020 | 1,200 (LV) | – | 54% | 36% | 7% |
| Human Agency/Missouri Scout[52] | December 20–24, 2019 | 415 (RV) | ± 5% | 51% | 36% | 13% |
| Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)[53] | November 17–20, 2019 | 400 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 51% | 35% | 14% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[54][C] | November 14–15, 2019 | 921 (LV) | – | 45% | 36% | 19% |
| Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)[55] | October 18–20, 2019 | 550 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 34% | 16% |
| Remington/Missouri Scout (R)[56] | October 9–10, 2019 | 1,451 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
| Missouri Scout/Human Agency (D)[57] | September 16–18, 2019 | 825 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 36% | 19% |
| Remington/Missouri Scout (R)[58] | August 14–15, 2019 | 855 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 39% | 11% |
| Remington/Missouri Scout (R)[59] | June 26–27, 2019 | 960 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 37% | 13% |
| Remington/Missouri Scout (R)[60] | February 27, 2019 | 893 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Hypothetical polling
Eric Greitens vs Nicole Galloway
Mike Parson vs Jason Kander
Mike Parson vs. Scott Sifton
Endorsements
Nicole Galloway (D)
Federal politicians
- Joe Biden, 47th vice president of the United States and 2020 Democratic nominee for president[61]
- Emanuel Cleaver, U.S. representative from Missouri's 5th district[62]
- Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California and 2020 Democratic nominee for vice president[23]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017), U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)[63]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts and former 2020 presidential candidate[64]
State officials
- Jay Nixon, former governor of Missouri[65]
Local officials
- Pete Buttigieg, mayor of South Bend, Indiana (2012–2020) and former 2020 presidential candidate[66]
- Quinton Lucas, mayor of Kansas City[67]
Individuals
- Andy Cohen, Bravo host[68]
- Scott Sifton, state senator from the 1st district[22]
Unions
Organizations
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Parson (incumbent) | 1,720,202 | 57.11% | +5.97% | |
| Democratic | Nicole Galloway | 1,225,771 | 40.69% | −4.88% | |
| Libertarian | Rik Combs | 49,067 | 1.63% | +0.16% | |
| Green | Jerome Bauer | 17,234 | 0.57% | −0.18% | |
| Write-in | 13 | 0.00% | ±0.00% | ||
| Total votes | 3,012,287 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | 3,026,028 | 69.75% | |||
| Registered electors | 4,318,758 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
By congressional district
Parson won six of eight congressional districts.[73]
| District | Parson | Galloway | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 19% | 78% | Lacy Clay (116th Congress) |
| Cori Bush (117th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 51% | 48% | Ann Wagner |
| 3rd | 66% | 31% | Blaine Luetkemeyer |
| 4th | 66% | 31% | Vicky Hartzler |
| 5th | 40% | 57% | Emanuel Cleaver |
| 6th | 64% | 34% | Sam Graves |
| 7th | 70% | 27% | Billy Long |
| 8th | 76% | 22% | Jason Smith |
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Combs (L) with 2%; Bauer (G) with 1%; Undecided with 2%
- Combs (L) with 2%; Bauer (G) with 1%; Undecided with 7%
- Combs (L) with 2%; Bauer (G) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
- "Other" with 3%; Undecided with 4%
- Undecided with 5%
- Undecided with 5%
- Undecided with 5%
- Combs (L) with 3%; Bauer (G) with 2%; Undecided with 8%
- Undecided with 7%
- Undecided with 17%; "Other" with 3%
- Undecided with 15%
Partisan clients
- Uniting Missouri is a PAC supporting Governor Mike Parson (R) in the 2020 Missouri gubernatorial election.
- Poll sponsored by Galloway's campaign.
- Poll sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association