Roy Amara

American researcher, scientist From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925[1] – 31 December 2007[2]) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist[3] and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering,[4] and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.

Born
Roy Charles Amara

(1925-04-07)7 April 1925
Died31 December 2007(2007-12-31) (aged 82)
EducationMIT, Harvard, Stanford
AlmamaterStanford
Quick facts Born, Died ...
Roy Amara
Amara c.1980
Born
Roy Charles Amara

(1925-04-07)7 April 1925
Died31 December 2007(2007-12-31) (aged 82)
EducationMIT, Harvard, Stanford
Alma materStanford
Known forAmara's law
Spouse
Margaret Frances Terestre
(m. 1949)
Children3
Scientific career
FieldsFuturism
InstitutionsSRI International, IFTF
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Amara's law

His adage, coined in 1978, about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.[5][6][7]

The law has been used in explaining nanotechnology.[8]

Selected bibliography

Books

  • Amara, Roy; Boucher, Wayne I. (1977). National Science Foundation (ed.). The study of the future: an agenda for research. Washington, D.C.: General Post Office. OCLC 3200105.
  • Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Andrew J. (1983). Business planning for an uncertain future: scenarios & strategies. New York: Pergamon Press. ISBN 9780080275451.
  • Amara, Roy; Morrison, J. Ian; Schmid, Gregory (1988). Looking ahead at American health care. Washington, D.C.: McGraw-Hill, Healthcare Information Center. ISBN 9780070013841.
  • Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (2003). Health and health care 2010: the forecast, the challenge (2nd ed.). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9780470932513.

Reports

References

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