2022 Idaho gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2022 Idaho gubernatorial election was held on November 8 to elect the next governor of Idaho. Incumbent Brad Little, first elected in 2018, was elected to a second term, the eighth consecutive win by a Republican.
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November 8, 2022
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| Turnout | 57.2%  | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Little: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Heidt: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Bundy: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||||||
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The statewide primary was held on May 17; Little defeated incumbent lieutenant governor Janice McGeachin in the Republican primary, while Stephen Heidt won the Democratic primary.[1] Little convincingly won the general election, but there was a relatively strong performance by far-right independent candidate Ammon Bundy, who finished roughly three points behind Heidt, and ahead of Heidt in 34 of Idaho's 44 counties.
Bundy's share of the vote was the best non-major party performance or the best outside both major parties performance since 1926.[2] This was the worst Democratic performance since 1924, and one of only three times since then in which the Democratic candidate failed to achieve 30% of the vote.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Brad Little, incumbent governor (Emmett)[3][4][5]
Eliminated in primary
- Steve Bradshaw, Bonner County commissioner (Cocolalla)[6]
- Ben Cannady, candidate for governor in 2018 (Boise)[7]
- Walter French[8]
- Ed Humphreys, financial advisor and Region IV chair of the Idaho Republican Party (Eagle)[9][10]
- Ashley Jackson, actress, marijuana legalization activist (Preston)[7]
- Lisa Marie, entrepreneur, humanitarian, mother (Eagle)[11]
- Janice McGeachin, lieutenant governor of Idaho (Idaho Falls)[12][13][14]
- Cody Usabel (Meridian)[15][16]
Withdrawn
- Ammon Bundy, anti-government militant, activist, and leader of the Occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge (ran as an independent) (Emmett)[17][18][19][20]
- Chris Hammond[21]
Declined
- Raúl Labrador, former U.S. representative from ID-01, former chair of the Idaho Republican Party, and candidate for governor in 2018 (successfully ran for Idaho attorney general)[22]
Endorsements
Brad Little
Individuals
- Tommy Ahlquist, businessman, physician, candidate for governor of Idaho in 2018[23]
Newspapers
Organizations
Janice McGeachin
U.S. executive branch officials
- Alan Keyes, former ambassador to the Economic and Social Council and Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Maryland in 1988 and 1992, Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Illinois in 2004, and candidate for president of the United States in 1996, 2000, and 2008[30]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[31]
State legislators
- Wendy Rogers, state senator from Arizona's 6th legislative district[32]
- Bryan Zollinger, former representative for Idaho's 33rd legislative district, Seat B (2016–2020)[33]
Individuals
- Larry Elder, conservative radio host and candidate for governor of California in 2021[34]
- Eric McGilp, chair of the Boise County Republican Party
Organizations
- Idaho Freedom PAC[35]
- Republican Liberty Caucus[36]
- Three Percenters[37]
Ammon Bundy (withdrawn)
U.S. representatives
- Ron Paul, former U.S. representative (R-TX), candidate for president in 1988, 2008 and 2012 (Libertarian)[38]
Individuals
- Roger Stone, conservative political consultant and lobbyist[39]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Steve Bradshaw |
Ammon Bundy |
Ed Humphreys |
Ashley Jackson |
Brad Little |
Lisa Marie |
Janice McGeachin |
Cody Usabel |
Undecided | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zoldak Research (R)[40] | April 9–12, 2022 | 549 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 3% | – | 6% | 1% | 60% | <1% | 29% | <1% | – | ||||
| – | – | 19% | – | 62% | – | – | – | 19% | ||||||||
| – | – | – | – | 62% | – | 33% | – | 6% | ||||||||
| Bundy withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
| Zoldak Research (R)[41] | December 20–21, 2021 | 575 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 1% | 6% | 2% | – | 59% | – | 18% | 0% | 14% | ||||
| 10% | – | – | – | 64% | – | – | – | 26% | ||||||||
| – | 15% | – | – | 70% | – | – | – | 15% | ||||||||
| – | – | 11% | – | 65% | – | – | – | 24% | ||||||||
| – | – | – | – | 64% | – | 24% | – | 12% | ||||||||
Primary results
Little
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
McGeachin
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brad Little (incumbent) | 148,831 | 52.8 | |
| Republican | Janice McGeachin | 90,854 | 32.2 | |
| Republican | Ed Humphreys | 30,877 | 11.0 | |
| Republican | Steve Bradshaw | 5,470 | 1.9 | |
| Republican | Ashley Jackson | 3,172 | 1.1 | |
| Republican | Lisa Marie | 1,119 | 0.4 | |
| Republican | Ben Cannady | 804 | 0.3 | |
| Republican | Cody Usabel | 680 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 281,807 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Write-in candidates
Withdrew
- Melissa Sue Robinson, perennial candidate[44][45]
Declined
- AJ Balukoff, former Boise School District trustee, nominee for governor in 2014, and candidate in 2018[43] (endorsed Shelby Rognstad)[46]
Endorsements
Shelby Rognstad
Federal politicians
- Larry LaRocco, former U.S. representative for Idaho's 1st congressional district (1991–1995)[47]
- Walt Minnick, former U.S. representative for Idaho's 1st congressional district (2009–2011)[47]
Idaho local officials/politicians
- AJ Balukoff, former Boise School District trustee, nominee for governor in 2014, and candidate for governor in 2018[47]
Primary results
Heidt
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Stephen Heidt | 25,088 | 78.8 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 6,757 | 21.2 | |
| Total votes | 31,845 | 100 | ||
Write-in count
Shelby Rognstad received 6,736 votes (21.2%). David Reilly received 21 votes (0.07%).
Libertarian primary
Candidates
Declared
- John Dionne Jr.[48]
- Paul Sand, White Bird city councilman, retired software engineer[49]
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Paul Sand | 426 | 60.2 | |
| Libertarian | John Dionne | 281 | 39.8 | |
| Total votes | 707 | 100 | ||
Constitution primary
Candidates
Declared
- Chantyrose Davison[50]
Write In
Withdrew
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Constitution | Chantyrose Davison | 345 | 64.4 | |
| Constitution | Write-ins | 191 | 35.6 | |
| Total votes | 536 | 100 | ||
Write-in count
Dr. Ryan Cole received 25 votes/6.7%.
Independents
Declared
- Ammon Bundy, leader of the Occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge[7]
Withdrawn
- John Dionne (running as a Libertarian[10][55])
- Pro Life (ran for lieutenant governor)
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[56] | Solid R | July 26, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[57] | Solid R | July 22, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[58] | Safe R | June 29, 2022 |
| Politico[59] | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[60] | Safe R | January 10, 2022 |
| Fox News[61] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
| 538[62] | Solid R | July 31, 2022 |
| Elections Daily[63] | Safe R | November 7, 2022 |
Post-primary endorsements
Brad Little (R)
Organizations
- Idaho Associated General Contractors[64]
- National Education Association[65]
- National Federation of Independent Business – Idaho chapter[64]
Ammon Bundy (I)
U.S. representatives
- Ron Paul, former U.S. representative (R-TX) (1976–1977, 1979–1985, 1997–2013), candidate for president in 1988, 2008 and 2012 (Libertarian)[38]
Individuals
- Pro-Life, 2022 Constitution Party candidate for lt. governor, organic strawberry farmer, and Idaho perennial candidate (Constitution)[66]
- Collin Raye, country music singer[67]
- Roger Stone, conservative political consultant and lobbyist (Republican)[68]
- James White, Montana Gazette Radio host[69]
Organizations
- Idaho Freedom PAC[70]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Brad Little (incumbent) | 358,598 | 60.51% |  0.74% | |
| Democratic | Stephen Heidt | 120,160 | 20.28% | 17.91% | |
| Independent | Ammon Bundy | 101,835 | 17.18% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Paul Sand | 6,714 | 1.13% | 0.05% | |
| Constitution | Chantyrose Davison | 5,250 | 0.89% | 0.07% | |
| Independent | Lisa Marie (write-in) | 46 | 0.01% |  | |
| Total votes | 592,603 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Majority | 238,438 | 40.24% | 18.66% | ||
| Turnout | 599,353 | 57.18% | −4.24% | ||
| Registered electors | 1,048,263 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
| County[71] | Brad Little Republican |
Stephen Heidt Democratic |
Ammon Bundy Independent |
Paul Sand Libertarian |
Chantyrose Davison Constitution |
Lisa Marie Independent (write-in)[72] |
Other write-in[71][b] | Margin | Total | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Ada | 105,276 | 56.84% | 53,693 | 28.99% | 22,867 | 12.35% | 2,190 | 1.18% | 1,200 | 0.65% | 3 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 51,580 | 27.85% | 185,229 |
| Adams | 1,287 | 63.71% | 239 | 11.83% | 446 | 22.08% | 23 | 1.14% | 25 | 1.24% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 841[c] | 41.63% | 2,020 |
| Bannock | 14,945 | 58.51% | 7,006 | 27.43% | 2,907 | 11.38% | 379 | 1.48% | 263 | 1.03% | 1 | 0.00% | 41 | 0.16% | 7,939 | 31.08% | 25,542 |
| Bear Lake | 1,412 | 62.31% | 140 | 6.18% | 678 | 29.92% | 17 | 0.75% | 19 | 0.84% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 734[c] | 32.39% | 2,266 |
| Benewah | 2,097 | 60.71% | 397 | 11.49% | 871 | 25.22% | 44 | 1.27% | 45 | 1.30% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,226[c] | 35.50% | 3,454 |
| Bingham | 8,750 | 70.66% | 1,277 | 10.31% | 2,022 | 16.33% | 144 | 1.16% | 170 | 1.37% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 6,728[c] | 54.42% | 12,363 |
| Blaine | 4,022 | 41.32% | 5,149 | 52.90% | 424 | 4.36% | 80 | 0.82% | 45 | 0.46% | 0 | 0.00% | 14 | 0.14% | -1,127 | -11.58% | 9,734 |
| Boise | 1,932 | 56.10% | 453 | 13.15% | 970 | 28.16% | 37 | 1.07% | 46 | 1.34% | 6 | 0.17% | 0 | 0.00% | 962[c] | 27.93% | 3,444 |
| Bonner | 12,136 | 58.36% | 3,121 | 15.01% | 5,110 | 24.57% | 198 | 0.95% | 229 | 1.10% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,026[c] | 33.79% | 20,794 |
| Bonneville | 24,525 | 69.11% | 5,310 | 14.96% | 4,803 | 13.53% | 451 | 1.27% | 395 | 1.11% | 3 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% | 19,215 | 54.15% | 35,487 |
| Boundary | 3,084 | 58.87% | 437 | 8.34% | 1,602 | 30.58% | 49 | 0.94% | 56 | 1.07% | 11 | 0.21% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,482[c] | 28.29% | 5,239 |
| Butte | 635 | 62.93% | 74 | 7.33% | 266 | 26.36% | 19 | 1.88% | 15 | 1.49% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 369[c] | 36.57% | 1,009 |
| Camas | 337 | 65.18% | 61 | 11.80% | 104 | 20.12% | 8 | 1.55% | 7 | 1.35% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 234[c] | 45.26% | 517 |
| Canyon | 34,316 | 58.83% | 9,236 | 15.83% | 13,554 | 23.24% | 682 | 1.17% | 538 | 0.92% | 3 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% | 20,762[c] | 35.59% | 58,329 |
| Caribou | 1,495 | 70.52% | 142 | 6.70% | 436 | 20.57% | 22 | 1.04% | 25 | 1.18% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,059[c] | 49.95% | 2,120 |
| Cassia | 4,074 | 70.06% | 371 | 6.78% | 1,226 | 21.08% | 68 | 1.17% | 63 | 1.08% | 0 | 0.00% | 13 | 0.22% | 2,848[c] | 48.98% | 5,815 |
| Clark | 145 | 69.71% | 12 | 5.77% | 45 | 21.63% | 2 | 0.96% | 4 | 1.92% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 100[c] | 48.08% | 208 |
| Clearwater | 2,220 | 71.13% | 368 | 11.79% | 467 | 14.96% | 35 | 1.12% | 24 | 0.77% | 7 | 0.22% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,753[c] | 56.17% | 3,121 |
| Custer | 1,228 | 60.31% | 232 | 11.39% | 538 | 26.42% | 15 | 0.74% | 22 | 1.08% | 1 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 690[c] | 33.89% | 2,036 |
| Elmore | 4,260 | 64.25% | 1,023 | 15.43% | 1,146 | 17.29% | 107 | 1.61% | 94 | 1.42% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 3,114[c] | 46.97% | 6,630 |
| Franklin | 2,744 | 63.27% | 213 | 4.91% | 1,294 | 29.84% | 33 | 0.76% | 53 | 1.22% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,450[c] | 33.43% | 4,337 |
| Fremont | 3,073 | 72.10% | 347 | 8.14% | 737 | 17.29% | 41 | 0.96% | 64 | 1.50% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 2,336[c] | 54.81% | 4,262 |
| Gem | 4,582 | 60.04% | 599 | 7.85% | 2,310 | 30.27% | 72 | 0.94% | 68 | 0.89% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 2,272[c] | 29.77% | 7,631 |
| Gooding | 2,458 | 60.68% | 430 | 10.61% | 1,075 | 26.54% | 40 | 0.99% | 47 | 1.16% | 1 | 0.02% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,383[c] | 34.14% | 4,051 |
| Idaho | 4,840 | 64.79% | 638 | 8.54% | 1,816 | 24.31% | 98 | 1.31% | 78 | 1.04% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 3,024[c] | 40.48% | 7,470 |
| Jefferson | 6,591 | 72.52% | 580 | 6.38% | 1,668 | 18.35% | 95 | 1.05% | 154 | 1.69% | 1 | 0.01% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,923[c] | 54.16% | 9,089 |
| Jerome | 3,161 | 64.91% | 540 | 11.09% | 1,051 | 21.58% | 59 | 1.21% | 47 | 0.97% | 0 | 0.00% | 12 | 0.25% | 2,110[c] | 43.33% | 4,870 |
| Kootenai | 38,296 | 61.29% | 9,299 | 14.88% | 13,727 | 21.97% | 517 | 0.83% | 451 | 0.72% | 6 | 0.01% | 183 | 0.29% | 24,569[c] | 39.32% | 62,479 |
| Latah | 8,256 | 54.88% | 5,043 | 33.52% | 1,403 | 9.33% | 184 | 1.22% | 87 | 0.58% | 0 | 0.00% | 70 | 0.47% | 3,213 | 21.36% | 15,043 |
| Lemhi | 2,465 | 67.35% | 421 | 11.50% | 713 | 19.48% | 34 | 0.93% | 26 | 0.71% | 1 | 0.03% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,752[c] | 47.87% | 3,660 |
| Lewis | 1,013 | 74.43% | 123 | 9.04% | 210 | 15.43% | 6 | 0.44% | 9 | 0.66% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 803[c] | 59.00% | 1,361 |
| Lincoln | 841 | 63.66% | 152 | 11.51% | 292 | 22.10% | 18 | 1.36% | 18 | 1.36% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 549[c] | 41.56% | 1,321 |
| Madison | 6,037 | 72.42% | 694 | 8.33% | 1,388 | 16.65% | 85 | 1.02% | 132 | 1.58% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,649[c] | 55.77% | 8,336 |
| Minidoka | 3,222 | 68.25% | 399 | 8.45% | 980 | 20.76% | 61 | 1.29% | 59 | 1.25% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 2,242[c] | 47.49% | 4,721 |
| Nez Perce | 9,252 | 68.63% | 2,659 | 19.72% | 1,328 | 9.85% | 154 | 1.14% | 88 | 0.65% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 6,593 | 48.91% | 13,481 |
| Oneida | 1,031 | 65.21% | 70 | 4.29% | 499 | 30.59% | 9 | 0.55% | 18 | 1.10% | 0 | 0.00% | 4 | 0.25% | 532[c] | 32.62% | 1,631 |
| Owyhee | 1,881 | 57.17% | 300 | 9.12% | 1,015 | 30.85% | 44 | 1.34% | 49 | 1.49% | 1 | 0.03% | 0 | 0.00% | 866[c] | 26.32% | 3,290 |
| Payette | 4,874 | 64.06% | 723 | 9.50% | 1,846 | 24.26% | 84 | 1.10% | 82 | 1.08% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 3,028[c] | 39.79% | 7,609 |
| Power | 1,411 | 71.41% | 297 | 15.03% | 210 | 10.63% | 24 | 1.21% | 30 | 1.52% | 0 | 0.00% | 4 | 0.20% | 1,114 | 56.38% | 1,976 |
| Shoshone | 2,614 | 63.32% | 767 | 18.58% | 669 | 16.21% | 42 | 1.02% | 36 | 0.87% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,847 | 44.74% | 4,128 |
| Teton | 2,169 | 46.23% | 1,989 | 42.39% | 453 | 9.65% | 62 | 1.32% | 19 | 0.40% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 180 | 3.84% | 4,692 |
| Twin Falls | 13,884 | 60.29% | 3,428 | 14.89% | 5,111 | 22.19% | 291 | 1.26% | 279 | 1.21% | 0 | 0.00% | 36 | 0.16% | 8,773[c] | 38.10% | 23,029 |
| Valley | 3,211 | 61.37% | 1,344 | 25.69% | 578 | 11.05% | 62 | 1.19% | 36 | 0.69% | 1 | 0.02% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,867 | 35.68% | 5,232 |
| Washington | 2,516 | 64.12% | 364 | 9.28% | 980 | 24.97% | 29 | 0.74% | 35 | 0.89% | 0 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,536[c] | 39.14% | 3,924 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Little won both congressional districts.[74]
| District | Little | Heidt | Bundy | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 61% | 17% | 20% | Russ Fulcher |
| 2nd | 60% | 24% | 14% | Mike Simpson |
See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - These totals are taken from individual county stats with a "write-in" section on the LiveVoterTurnout.com. In the counties where Lisa Marie received any votes, paired with a greater number of unspecified write-ins, the number in this column reflects the total write-ins minus Lisa Marie's votes.
- In counties where Bundy placed second, ahead of Heidt, the margin given is Little's vote and percentage minus Bundy's vote and percentage.