Talk:2024 YR4

https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.12351 (raw link for Talk page only). — Preceding unsigned comment added by 50.43.120.18 (talk) 05:32, 14 October 2025 (UTC)

NASA mentioned the possibility of JWST observing 2024 yr4 in February 2026, noting that it may be tough but could either eliminate or raise moon impact odds to about 30%, should this be added? MrHalfBacon (talk) 18:00, 20 December 2025 (UTC)

@MrHalfBacon: Remind me please, where did they mention this? Renerpho (talk) 19:01, 20 December 2025 (UTC)

It is under JWST proposal 9441: Enabling early decision for a possible lunar impact in 2032. MrHalfBacon (talk) 19:12, 20 December 2025 (UTC)

The proposal does point out that it will be difficult, as according to the paper it will be about V mag 30. MrHalfBacon (talk) 19:18, 20 December 2025 (UTC)

@MrHalfBacon: I see (that's on page 2 of the proposal PDF). It's also quoted in this article on iflscience.com from 12 November 2025 which would be a good additional source. And yes, I think it's worth mentioning. Renerpho (talk) 19:21, 20 December 2025 (UTC)

The article is currently citing me (Daniel Bamberger), in the #Possible impact on the Moon section, quoting me to have said that the impact "could be brighter than the full moon" making it clearly visible to the naked eye. While it is true that I said this, I also later stated publicly that I no longer agree with this, based on new information we learned about the asteroid. I commented about this before on this talk page, in my comment of 31 May 2025. The quote in its current form is misleading, and I hope that something can be done about that. Here is my post on Bluesky, dated 31 May 2025 (citing this should be fine in this instance, per WP:TWITTER):

Looking at what I said about the possible lunar impact of 2024 YR4 in 2032, I made some claims in early February about its potential brightness and visibility, which I no longer agree with in light of what we've learned about the asteroid.
I said that "the impact "could be brighter than the full moon" making it clearly visible to the naked eye". This could be true if the object was at the upper end of the size range that was possible at the time, and if all energy from the impact were converted into visible light (which it won't).

The unrealistic model (100% conversion of impact energy into visible light) notwithstanding, we learned in March 2025 that the asteroid was nowhere near the upper end of the size range.

I don't want to edit that paragraph myself (per User:Renerpho/Potential_conflicts_of_interest#2024_YR4). I'm also not prepared to make an Template:Edit COI request at this point, since I'm not sure if it'd be best to just remove the existing quote, or to clarify it. Renerpho (talk) 03:01, 6 February 2026 (UTC)

I have tagged the current version as dubious. Renerpho (talk) 22:04, 7 February 2026 (UTC)

Observations with JWST are taking place right now (imaging just started). Proposal by Andy Rivkin from 23 July 2025: ; compare the schedule for today . According to Rivkin , results are expected about a month from now. Renerpho (talk) 08:13, 18 February 2026 (UTC)

@MrHalfBacon: You previously asked about those observations in your December 2025 talk page post here. Renerpho (talk) 08:15, 18 February 2026 (UTC)

Results just came back-

1. 2024 YR4 was successfully observed at a visual magnitude 29.9-30.8, one of the faintest objects ever observed

2. A 2032 moon impact was ruled out

3. 2024 YR4 has been removed from the Sentry Risk Table. MrHalfBacon (talk) 18:39, 5 March 2026 (UTC)