Roy Amara

Su declaración, parafraseado por Robert X. Cringely, es un adagio de la informática, la cual se ha conocido como la ley de Amara, y declara:

Nuestra tendencia es sobrestimar los efectos de una tecnología en el corto plazo y subestimar el efecto en el largo plazo.^[5][6]

Se ha dicho que esta ley anima la gente a pensar de los efectos de la tecnología en el largo plazo,^[7] y que es una ilustración por el ciclo de sobreexpectación,^[8] caracterizado por el «pico de expectativas sobredimensionadas» seguido por el «abismo de desilusión».^[9] Se ha usado esta ley para explicar ciberataques^[10] y la nanotecnología.^[11]

• Amara, Roy; Boucher, Wayne I. (1977). National Science Foundation, ed. The study of the future: an agenda for research. Washington, D.C.: General Post Office. OCLC 3200105. 
• Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Andrew J. (1983). Business planning for an uncertain future: scenarios & strategies. New York: Pergamon Press. ISBN 9780080275451. 
• Amara, Roy; Morrison, J. Ian; Schmid, Gregory (1988). Looking ahead at American health care. Washington, D.C.: McGraw-Hill, Healthcare Information Center. ISBN 9780070013841. 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (2003). Health and health care 2010: the forecast, the challenge (2nd edición). Hoboken, New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN 9780470932513. 

• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). A framework for national science policy analysis. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 4484161. P-18. «Reprinted from IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 1 January 1972». 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). Toward a framework for national goals and policy research. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 11724396. «Reprinted from IEEE Transactions on systems, man and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 5 November 1972». 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1972). The social responsibilities of business. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 5744644. «Prepared for the White House Conference on the Industrial World Ahead, Washington, D.C., 2–9 February 1972». 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1973). Draft summaries of four workshops on the social impact of the computer. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 709544477. 
• Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Andrew J.; Institute for the future (1974). Strategic planning: penetrating the corporate barriers. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 4349610. 
• Amara, Roy; World Future Society (1975). The next 25 years: crises and challenges. Menlo Park, California: World Future Society. OCLC 3693807. P-31. «Presented at the World Future Society Second General Assembly Plenary Session, June 2, 1975». 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1975). Some methods of futures research. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 2456542. 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1975). Emerging societal issues: some suggestions for research. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 17817243. WP-22. 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). The U.S. in the decade ahead: an inventory of resources: American Vocational Association national convention, 4 December, 1978. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7527420. P-72. 
• Amara, Roy; Lipinski, Hubert; Spangler, Kathleen; Institute for the future (1978). Communication needs in computer modeling. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7511471. P-67.  Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.^[12]
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). The future of voluntarism: meeting changing societal needs. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7293285. P-69. 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). Planning, futures and the skeptics. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 6661254. 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1978). Toward understanding the social impact of computers. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 1166342. R-29. 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). The future of management: ten shapers of management in the '80s. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 8390527. P-80. 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). Imperatives for tomorrow: the I's have it: images, institutions, involvement. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7917815. P-87. 
• Amara, Roy; Institute for the future (1980). The futures field. Menlo Park, California: Institute for the Future. OCLC 7919207. P-95. 

1. ↑ «Amara, Roy». Library of Congress. Consultado el 18 de febrero de 2015. «data sheet (Amara, Roy Charles, b. 4/7/25)». 
2. ↑ Pescovitz, David (3 de enero de 2008). «Roy Amara, forecaster, RIP». BoingBoing. Consultado el 18 de febrero de 2015. 
3. ↑ Four Geeky Laws That Rule Our World
4. ↑ «Roy Amara (biography)». University of Arizona: Anticipating the future (course), Futures Thinkers. Archivado desde el original el 21 de marzo de 2014. Consultado el 18 de febrero de 2015. 
5. ↑ «Encyclopedia: Definition of: Amara's law». PC Magazine. Consultado el 18 de febrero de 2015. 
6. ↑ SMART Letter #63 Amara's Law
7. ↑ 10 laws of tech: the rules that define our world
8. ↑ Amara's Law
9. ↑ Hyper Cycle for Emerging Technologies
10. ↑ VTech Breach, Amara's Law and Long-term Effects of Cyber Attacks
11. ↑ Context
12. ↑ Roy Amara at DBLP bibliography