2008 Andalusian regional election

Election in the Spanish region of Andalusia From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

A regional election was held in Andalusia on 9 March 2008 to elect the 8th Parliament of the autonomous community. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with the 2008 Spanish general election.

Registered6,231,087 Increase 3.0%
Turnout4,528,271 (72.7%)
Decrease 2.0 pp
Quick facts All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority, Registered ...
2008 Andalusian regional election
← 2004
9 March 2008
2012 →
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered6,231,087 Increase 3.0%
Turnout4,528,271 (72.7%)
Decrease 2.0 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Manuel Chaves Javier Arenas Diego Valderas
Party PSOE–A PP IULV–CA
Leader since 19 April 1990 18 April 2004 15 October 2000
Leader's seat Cádiz Almería Huelva
Last election 61 seats, 50.4% 37 seats, 31.8% 6 seats, 7.5%
Seats won 56 47 6
Seat change Decrease 5 Increase 10 Steady 0
Popular vote 2,178,296 1,730,154 317,562
Percentage 48.4% 38.5% 7.1%
Swing Decrease 2.0 pp Increase 6.7 pp Decrease 0.4 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
President before election

Manuel Chaves
PSOE–A

 President after election

Manuel Chaves
PSOE–A

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Incumbent President Manuel Chaves from the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) was re-elected for a sixth term in office with a slightly reduced majority. Final results showed a major breakthrough by the People's Party (PP), which gained 10 seats from 37 to 47 and scored its best result in the community at the time. United Left (IULV–CA) remained stagnant with 6 seats, whereas the Andalusian Party (PA) suffered a major drop in support and failed to enter the regional parliament for the first time.

Background

With the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) regaining its absolute majority in Andalusia in the 2004 election, Manuel Chaves was able to govern alone again, after 10 years of minority government, having relied on the support of the Andalusian Party in the previous 8 years. Teófila Martínez, who had been PP candidate for President of the Regional Government of Andalusia in the previous two elections (1996 and 2000), was replaced by Javier Arenas as head of the Andalusian People's Party (PP). Arenas had been PP candidate in the 1994 and 1996 elections, but left the PP regional leadership in order to become Spain's Minister of Labor and Social Affairs in the Aznar cabinet and, later, Secretary-General of the People's Party.

Concurrently in 2004, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero from PSOE was elected as Spain's new prime minister, after unexpectedly winning the 2004 general election. This meant that, for the first time since 1996, both the regional and national governments were ruled by the same party.

Overview

Under the 2007 Statute of Autonomy, the Parliament of Andalusia was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[2]

Date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 25 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia (BOJA), with election day taking place 54 days after the decree's publication (barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August).[3] The previous election was held on 14 March 2004, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 14 March 2008. The election decree was required to be published in the BOJA no later than 19 February 2008, setting the latest possible date for election day on 13 April 2008.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Andalusia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one.[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[5]

The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 15 January 2008 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOJA, setting election day for 9 March and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 3 April.[6]

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[7]

The Parliament of Andalusia had a minimum of 109 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at that number. All were elected in eight multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, each of which was assigned an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 distributed in proportion to population (with the number of seats in each province not exceeding two times that of any other)—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.[8] The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.[9]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:[10]

More information Seats, Constituencies ...
Seats Constituencies
18 Seville
16 Málaga
15 Cádiz
13 Granada
12 Almería(+1), Córdoba(–1), Jaén
11 Huelva
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The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[11]

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.[12]

More information Groups, Parties ...
Parliamentary composition in January 2008
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE–A 61 61
Andalusian People's Parliamentary Group PP 37 37
United Left/The Greens Parliamentary Group IULV–CA 6 6
Andalusian Parliamentary Group PA 5 5
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Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[13] Amendments in 2005 required a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.[14]

Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:

More information Candidacy, Parties and alliances ...
Candidacy Parties and
alliances		 Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Vote % Seats
PSOE–A
List
 Manuel Chaves Social democracy 50.4% 61 Yes [15]
PP
List
 Javier Arenas Conservatism
Christian democracy		 31.8% 37 No
IULV–CA
List
 Diego Valderas Socialism
Communism		 7.5% 6 No
CA
List
 Julián Álvarez Andalusian nationalism
Social democracy
8.3%
[a]		 5 No
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Campaign

Debates

More information Date, Organisers ...
2008 Andalusian regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[b]    S  Surrogate[c]  
 NI  Not invited   I  Invited    A  Absent invitee 
PSOE–A PP IULV–CA CA Audience Ref.
26 February RTVA Carlos María Ruiz P
Chaves		 P
Arenas		 P
Valderas		 P
Álvarez		 15.7%
(518,000)		 [16]
[17]
2 March RTVA Esther Martín P
Chaves		 P
Arenas		 NI NI 21.5%
(781,000)		 [18]
[19]
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Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 14 March 2004 to 9 March 2008, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...
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Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...
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Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...
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Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...
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Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Andalusia.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...
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Voter turnout

The table below shows registered voter turnout during the election. Figures for election day do not include non-resident citizens, while final figures do.

More information Province, Time (Election day) ...
Province Time (Election day) Final
14:00 18:00 20:00
2004 2008 +/– 2004 2008 +/– 2004 2008 +/– 2004 2008 +/–
Almería 40.09% 40.32% −0.23 62.09% 60.52% −1.57 74.03% 74.66% +0.63 71.83% 72.66% +0.83
Cádiz 38.34% 37.19% −1.15 58.93% 55.85% −3.08 70.79% 68.12% −2.67 69.82% 67.31% −2.51
Córdoba 43.22% 39.91% −3.31 65.57% 60.88% −4.69 79.64% 76.62% −3.02 78.42% 75.62% −2.80
Granada 42.03% 39.98% −2.05 64.61% 61.01% −3.60 77.54% 75.89% −1.65 75.61% 74.16% −1.45
Huelva 37.20% 36.24% −0.96 59.01% 55.62% −3.39 73.82% 70.40% −3.42 73.07% 70.51% −2.56
Jaén 40.91% 38.97% −1.94 64.97% 61.25% −3.72 81.25% 79.26% −1.99 80.31% 78.50% −1.81
Málaga 41.02% 39.93% −1.09 61.73% 59.49% −2.24 72.94% 72.31% −0.63 71.70% 71.19% −0.51
Seville 42.51% 36.26% −6.25 65.89% 60.72% −5.17 77.79% 74.38% −3.41 77.00% 73.71% −3.29
Total 40.99% 39.07% –1.92 63.16% 59.51% –3.65 75.85% 73.65% –2.20 74.66% 72.67% –1.99
Sources[20][21]
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Results

Overall

More information Parties and alliances, Popular vote ...
← Summary of the 9 March 2008 Parliament of Andalusia election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A) 2,178,29648.41−1.95 56−5
People's Party (PP) 1,730,15438.45+6.67 47+10
United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA) 317,5627.06−0.45 6±0
Andalusian Coalition (CA)1 124,2432.76−5.53 0−5
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 27,7120.62New 0±0
The Greens (LV) 25,8860.58New 0±0
Party of Almería (PdeAL) 14,8060.33New 0±0
Andalusian Convergence (CAnda) 7,8620.17New 0±0
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's) 6,0240.13New 0±0
Republican Left (IR) 4,8150.11+0.04 0±0
Humanist Party (PH) 3,9510.09−0.04 0±0
Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA) 2,7430.06New 0±0
Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) 2,7290.06New 0±0
Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE de las JONS) 1,7630.04−0.06 0±0
Andalusian Social Democratic Party (PSDA) 1,4770.03−0.01 0±0
Family and Life Party (PFyV) 8900.02New 0±0
Christian Positivist Party (PPCr) 7800.02New 0±0
Blank ballots 47,9201.06−0.33
Total 4,499,613 109±0
Valid votes 4,499,61399.37+0.02
Invalid votes 28,6580.63−0.02
Votes cast / turnout 4,528,27172.67−1.99
Abstentions 1,702,81627.33+1.99
Registered voters 6,231,087
Sources[12][22]
Footnotes:
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Popular vote
PSOE–A
 
 48.41%
PP
 
 38.45%
IULV–CA
 
 7.06%
CA
 
 2.76%
Others
 
 2.25%
Blank ballots
 
 1.06%
Seats
PSOE–A
 
 51.38%
PP
 
 43.12%
IULV–CA
 
 5.50%

Distribution by constituency

More information Constituency, PSOE–A ...
Constituency PSOE–A PP IULV–CA
% S % S % S
Almería 39.1 5 49.3 7 3.8 −
Cádiz 47.8 8 38.3 6 6.6 1
Córdoba 46.6 6 37.9 5 9.5 1
Granada 46.1 6 42.0 6 7.3 1
Huelva 52.0 6 35.2 4 7.6 1
Jaén 53.3 7 36.6 5 6.1 −
Málaga 43.2 7 43.6 8 7.1 1
Seville 54.4 11 31.7 6 7.3 1
Total 48.4 56 38.5 47 7.1 6
Sources[12][22]
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Aftermath

Government formation

More information Ballot →, 17 April 2008 ...
Investiture
Nomination of Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A)
Ballot → 17 April 2008
Required majority → 55 out of 109 checkY
Yes
56 / 109
No
52 / 109
Abstentions
0 / 109
Absentees
  • • PP (1)
1 / 109
Sources[12]
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2009 investiture

Further information: First government of José Antonio Griñán

On 7 April 2009, Manuel Chaves resigned as regional President in order to become Third Deputy Prime Minister in the Second Zapatero Government, being succeeded as acting officeholder by Vice President Gaspar Zarrías. On 22 April, José Antonio Griñán was elected as new President by the Parliament of Andalusia.

More information Ballot →, 22 April 2009 ...
Investiture
Nomination of José Antonio Griñán (PSOE–A)
Ballot → 22 April 2009
Required majority → 55 out of 109 checkY
Yes
56 / 109
No
53 / 109
Abstentions
0 / 109
Absentees
0 / 109
Sources[12]
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Notes

  1. [a]
    Results for PA (6.2%, 5 seats), FA (1.2%, 0 seats) and PSA (0.9%, 0 seats) in the 2004 election.
  2. [b]
    Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  3. [c]
    Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  4. [d]
    Undecided and/or abstentionists excluded.
  5. [e]
    Does not include non-resident citizens.

References

Bibliography

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