2015 Catalan regional election

Secessionist process

After the 2012 regional election resulted in Convergence and Union (CiU) unexpectedly losing seats, President Mas was placed in a difficult political position, as he fell 18 seats short of the absolute majority. He was forced to sign an agreement with Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), in which the latter pledged to support the government, albeit without entering a formal coalition, in return for a faster process to obtain the independence of Catalonia.

On 23 January 2013, the Parliament of Catalonia adopted the Declaration of Sovereignty and of the Right to Decide of the Catalan People, which stated that "The people of Catalonia have—by reason of democratic legitimacy—the character of a sovereign political and legal entity." This declaration was provisionally suspended by the Constitutional Court of Spain on 8 May 2013, and on 25 March 2014 the same court declared that it was void and unconstitutional due to the fact that the Spanish Constitution of 1978 makes the Spanish people as a whole the only subject of sovereignty.^[2] At the same time, opinion polls began to show ERC topping the voters' preferences for the first time since the 1932 Catalan election, with the CiU vote declining as a result of the 2012 election backlash, but also because of Mas' management of the economic crisis and the involvement of several CiU leading figures in several corruption scandals. Among those involved was party founder Jordi Pujol, charged in a tax fraud scandal related to an undeclared inheritance in Andorra, accompanied by allegations of bribery, embezzlement, breach of trust, influence peddling, forgery of documents and money laundering crimes allegedly committed during his time as president of Catalonia.^[3]

On 12 December 2013, the Government of Catalonia announced that a non-binding referendum on the independence issue would be held on 9 November 2014, for the purpose of giving independence leaders a political mandate to negotiate with the Government of Spain. Mariano Rajoy's government stated shortly after its intention to block such a referendum, which it considered unconstitutional and not within the competences of the Autonomous Community.^[4]

In spite of this, a not legally sanctioned referendum was held as scheduled, with over 80% voting for independence, albeit on a low turnout of around 40%. Independence parties considered the result a success. Artur Mas explained in a public act on 25 November his plan to reach independence, proposing calling an extraordinary regional election—turned into an alternative vote on independence—at some point during 2015, on the condition that ERC agreed to join a common list with his party to stand together at the polls. ERC leader Oriol Junqueras agreed with most of the plan but initially refused such a joint list, threatening to break its government pact with CiU in order to force an election in early 2015.^[5][6] After weeks of calibrated brinkmanship from both sides, with CDC pushing for a joint candidature to cover for its forecasted loss of support and ERC refusing to run with Artur Mas as presidential candidate, both parties finally reached an agreement, and on 14 January 2015, Mas announced that a snap regional election would be held on 27 September that same year, with the intention to turn in into the true plebiscite on independence.^[1]

Aside from the pact to hold an extraordinary election, the agreement also included to complete state structures as a basic element to culminate the process of "national transition" as well as negotiation of budgets.^[7][8] Mas and Junqueras also apologized for the rarefied political climate between the pro-independence parties in the negotiations that had taken place during the weeks prior to the announcement.^[9]

The Spanish government, in response to the election announcement eight months ahead of the scheduled date, accused Mas of having "no interest in attending the Catalan people's problems, nor it has any capacity to solve them".^[10] The People's Party (PP), Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) also criticized the announcement.^[11]

CiU breakup

Tension within both parties forming the CiU federation had reached an all-time high in June 2015 due to differences between the positions the Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC) leadership and Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) leader Artur Mas took over the sovereignty process. CDC was in favour of outright independence even if it meant breaking the established Spanish legality, while UDC was against doing it without a successful negotiation with the Spanish Government. As a result, a vote was held on 14 June 2015 between UDC members, asking whether the party should commit itself to continue with the process but establishing several conditions—including not violating the legality in force through unilateral independence declarations—or starting the constituent processes at the margin of legal norms.^[12][13] The first option, supported by UDC leaders and contrary to the signed agreements between CDC, ERC and sovereignty entities, was approved by UDC members with a narrow 50.9% to 46.1% choosing to stand at the side of CDC.^[14] After this, CDC issued an ultimatum to UDC for the latter to decide within "two or three days" whether it committed itself to the independence plan.^[15] On 17 June, after a meeting of the UDC leadership, it was announced that the party was withdrawing all three of its members from the Government of the Generalitat of Catalonia, although they agreed to maintain parliamentary stability until the end of the legislature.^[16] That same day at night, the CDC national executive committee met and in a press conference the next day confirmed that UDC and CDC would not run together in the 2015 regional election, and that the political project of the CiU federation was over, signalling the end of 37 years of cooperation between both parties as Convergence and Union,^[17][18] a coalition which had dominated Catalan politics since the 1980s.

Run up to election

On 3 August 2015, Catalan president Artur Mas signed the election decree and highlighted the extraordinariness of the proposal's background, which nonetheless did not mention the word plebiscite. The President justified the extraordinary meaning of the election after having unsuccessfully tried to negotiate a legal and agreed-to referendum with the Government of Spain. Mas, however, did not mention how much support did he considered necessary for proceeding with the independence process.^[19][20] Only pro-independence parties recognized the plebiscitary character of the election, with other parties arguing that—acknowledging the election's importance—it still was an election to the Parliament of Catalonia as many others had been held in the past. The PP, PSC and C's, however, hinted on the possibility of a post-election pact to curb the independence process.^[21] The Spanish Government said it would keep a close watch closely the legality of the whole election process while demanding neutrality from Mas.^[22] Mariano Rajoy stated: "There won't be a plebiscitary election, as there wasn't a referendum", in relation to the 9 November 2014 vote.^[23] Several parties and media questioned the legality of holding the Free Way demonstration on 11 September, as it coincided with the start date of the election campaign.

Date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election was required to be called no later than 15 days before the scheduled expiration date of parliament, with election day taking place between 40 and 60 days from the call.^[26] The previous election was held on 25 November 2012, which meant that the chamber's term would have expired on 25 November 2016. The election was required to be called no later than 10 November 2016, setting the latest possible date for election day on 9 January 2017.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year after a previous one under this procedure.^[27] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[28]

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 4 August 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia (DOGC), setting election day for 27 September.^[29]

Electoral system

Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.^[30] Additionally, non-resident citizens were required to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).^[31][32]

The Parliament of Catalonia had a minimum of 100 and a maximum of 150 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 135. All were elected in four multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, each of which was assigned a fixed number of seats—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each constituency.^[33] The use of this electoral method resulted in a higher effective threshold depending on district magnitude and vote distribution.^[34]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:^[35]

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.^[36]

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.^{[37][38][39][40]}

Party slogans

Party stances

More information Stance on independence, Parties and alliances ...

Source: Historia Electoral.com^[37]

Stance on independence	Parties and alliances	Referendum	Constitutional reform
Y Yes	Together for Yes	Y	?
	Popular Unity Candidacy	Y	?
N No	Socialists' Party of Catalonia	N	Y
	People's Party	N	N
	Citizens–Party of the Citizenry	N	N
? Neutral	Catalonia Yes We Can	Y	Y
	Democratic Union of Catalonia	Y	Y

Close

Debates

Graphical summary

Local regression trend line of poll results from 25 November 2012 to 27 September 2015, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout													Lead
2015 regional election	27 Sep 2015	—N/a	74.9	–	12.7 16	[h]	8.5 11	[i]	17.9 25	8.2 10	[h]	2.5 0	[i]	39.6 62	8.9 11	21.7
TNS Demoscopia/CCMA[p 1]	27 Sep 2015	30,000	?	–	12.0 14/16	[h]	7.7 9/11	[i]	15.4 19/21	9.1 11/13	[h]	2.9 0/3	[i]	40.7 63/66	10.4 12/14	25.3
Directe.cat[p 2]	26 Sep 2015	?	?	–	12.0 14/16	[h]	9.0 10/11	[i]	16.0 17/19	8.0 10/12	[h]	–	[i]	42.0 67/71	10.0 13/15	26.0
Opinòmetre/El Periódico[p 3]	23–25 Sep 2015	800	73	–	? 16/18	[h]	? 8/10	[i]	? 20/21	? 6/8	[h]	? 5/6	[i]	? 62/64	? 12/14	?
GAD3/ABC[p 4]	14–25 Sep 2015	3,000	77.0	–	13.5 16/18	[h]	9.0 10/12	[i]	14.5 18/20	8.0 9/11	[h]	3.0 2/3	[i]	40.0 62/65	9.5 11/13	25.5
Técnicas Demoscópicas/8TV[p 5][p 6]	21 Sep 2015	1,200	?	–	12.0 14/15	[h]	11.0 13	[i]	13.0 18/20	7.0 9	[h]	2.5 0/3	[i]	41.0 62/64	12.0 15	28.0
Celeste-Tel[p 7]	16–21 Sep 2015	1,100	?	–	12.2 16/17	[h]	9.1 10/12	[i]	17.0 22/23	7.8 9/10	[h]	2.6 0/1	[i]	38.9 59/62	11.9 12/13	21.9
Celeste-Tel[p 7]	15–20 Sep 2015	1,100	?	–	12.0 15/17	[h]	9.3 11/12	[i]	16.7 22/23	7.7 8/10	[h]	2.9 0/1	[i]	38.7 59/62	12.1 13/14	22.0
Celeste-Tel[p 7]	14–19 Sep 2015	1,100	?	–	12.1 15/16	[h]	9.7 11/12	[i]	16.5 22/23	7.4 7/9	[h]	3.0 1/2	[i]	38.5 58/61	12.0 13/14	22.0
Encuestamos[p 8]	12–19 Sep 2015	844	?	–	13.4 17/19	[h]	10.5 12/14	[i]	13.3 17/19	8.3 10/12	[h]	2.3 0/2	[i]	35.7 54/57	14.6 18/21	21.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 9][p 10]	11–19 Sep 2015	1,255	?	–	12.1 16	[h]	9.9 13	[i]	15.3 20	6.2 8	[h]	3.7 3	[i]	38.0 59	12.4 16	22.7
JM&A/Público[p 11]	18 Sep 2015	?	71.7	–	11.1 14	[h]	9.9 13	[i]	14.8 20	7.3 9	[h]	1.8 0	[i]	40.3 64	12.0 15	25.5
Celeste-Tel/eldiario.es[p 12][p 13]	14–18 Sep 2015	1,100	66.2	–	12.1 15/18	[h]	9.9 11/13	[i]	14.6 20/21	6.2 7/9	[h]	3.1 2/3	[i]	38.8 59/62	12.6 16/17	24.2
GAD3/ABC[p 14]	14–18 Sep 2015	800	73	–	11.9 14/16	[h]	10.2 12/13	[i]	14.1 18/20	6.4 7/9	[h]	1.9 0/2	[i]	40.7 65/67	10.3 12/13	26.6
Invymark/laSexta[p 15]	14–18 Sep 2015	?	?	–	10.6 14	[h]	8.9 12	[i]	14.3 20	6.3 8	[h]	1.8 0	[i]	43.4 64	12.6 17	29.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 16]	10–18 Sep 2015	?	?	–	12.2 15/16	[h]	10.0 13/14	[i]	15.4 20/22	5.9 7/8	[h]	3.5 3/5	[i]	38.0 59/60	12.5 15/16	22.6
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 17]	16–17 Sep 2015	1,400	?	–	10.8 13/14	[h]	9.6 12/13	[i]	14.8 19/20	7.3 9	[h]	2.8 0/2	[i]	40.5 65/66	11.2 14	25.7
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 18]	14–17 Sep 2015	1,000	72.3	–	10.1 12/14	[h]	10.6 12/13	[i]	14.4 20/21	6.4 8	[h]	4.2 3	[i]	40.7 63/65	11.1 13/15	26.3
MyWord/Cadena SER[p 19][p 20]	10–17 Sep 2015	1,000	?	–	11.7 14/16	[h]	8.8 10	[i]	15.4 21/22	8.1 9/12	[h]	1.5 0	[i]	40.1 61/65	12.6 15/17	24.7
NC Report/La Razón[p 21]	9–17 Sep 2015	?	?	–	11.9 15/16	[h]	9.7 12/13	[i]	15.8 21/22	5.6 6/7	[h]	3.7 4/5	[i]	38.1 59/60	12.3 15/16	22.3
Infortécnica[p 22]	16 Sep 2015	366	?	–	? 14/16	[h]	? 10/12	[i]	? 22/24	? 7/9	[h]	? 3/5	[i]	? 59/61	? 14/16	?
Metroscopia/El País[p 23][p 24][p 25]	14–16 Sep 2015	2,000	74	–	11.7 14	[h]	7.3 10	[i]	14.9 19	8.4 10/11	[h]	2.7 0/2	[i]	41.2 66/67	11.4 14	26.3
DYM/El Confidencial[p 26]	14–16 Sep 2015	1,157	?	–	8.4 10/11	[h]	11.9 16	[i]	18.3 21/23	7.5 10/11	[h]	1.1 0	[i]	42.4 63/65	10.4 12	24.1
Opinòmetre/Economía Digital[p 27]	14–16 Sep 2015	1,000	?	–	13.2 15/17	[h]	8.9 14/16	[i]	15.9 18/20	6.4 6/8	[h]	5.2 5/6	[i]	39.2 60/62	11.1 17/19	23.3
NC Report/La Razón[p 21]	8–16 Sep 2015	?	?	–	11.6 15/16	[h]	9.5 12/13	[i]	16.2 22/23	5.6 5/6	[h]	3.8 4/5	[i]	37.9 59/60	12.5 16	21.7
Sigma Dos/Mediaset[p 28]	14–15 Sep 2015	1,800	?	–	9.1 12	[h]	9.3 11/13	[i]	15.4 20	8.2 10	[h]	2.2 0	[i]	40.3 65/66	12.3 15/17	24.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 29][p 30]	7–15 Sep 2015	1,255	?	–	11.4 15	[h]	9.4 12	[i]	16.5 23	5.2 5	[h]	3.9 5	[i]	37.6 59	12.7 16	21.1
JM&A/Público[p 31]	12 Sep 2015	?	72.0	–	10.0 14	[h]	8.3 13	[i]	15.5 21	9.1 12	[h]	2.7 0	[i]	39.9 60	11.3 15	24.4
JxSí[p 32][p 33]	12 Sep 2015	1,200	70.1	–	9.7 13/15	[h]	10.4 13/15	[i]	14.1 17/18	6.7 8	[h]	2.0 0	[i]	41.0 64/66	13.5 17/19	26.9
Invymark/laSexta[p 34]	7–11 Sep 2015	?	?	–	11.1 15	[h]	9.6 13	[i]	13.9 19	5.9 8	[h]	1.8 0	[i]	41.3 63	13.2 17	27.4
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia[p 35]	3–8 Sep 2015	750	?	–	12.6 16	[h]	11.5 16	[i]	11.6 16	7.4 8	[h]	–	[i]	42.1 65	10.2 14	29.5
IBES/Última Hora[p 36]	1–8 Sep 2015	1,200	?	–	11.1 15/16	[h]	10.2 12/13	[i]	13.4 18/19	7.2 9/10	[h]	2.8 0/2	[i]	38.3 64/65	11.4 13/14	24.9
Encuestamos[p 37]	7 Sep 2015	500	?	–	12.9	[h]	9.1	[i]	12.5	8.4	[h]	4.0	[i]	33.2	19.2	14.0
IMOP/CIS[p 38][p 39]	30 Aug–4 Sep 2015	2,999	?	–	12.2 16/17	[h]	9.4 12/13	[i]	14.8 19/20	5.9 8	[h]	1.5 0	[i]	38.1 60/61	13.9 18/19	23.3
JM&A/Público[p 40]	3 Sep 2015	?	71.6	–	10.1 13	[h]	8.5 11/12	[i]	15.6 20/21	9.0 13	[h]	2.3 0/2	[i]	39.8 60	11.2 16	24.4
GAPS/El Punt Avui[p 41][p 42]	1–3 Sep 2015	1,221	?	–	9.0– 10.0 12/13	[h]	11.6– 13.0 14/17	[i]	12.1– 13.1 15/18	7.0– 8.0 8/10	[h]	–	[i]	42.5– 44.5 65/70	11.0– 12.0 12/16	30.4– 31.4
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 43]	31 Aug–3 Sep 2015	1,400	?	–	11.1 14/15	[h]	9.8 13	[i]	12.7 16/17	6.7 8/9	[h]	3.8 3	[i]	39.4 62/65	12.4 15/17	26.7
GESOP/El Periódico[p 44][p 45]	31 Aug–2 Sep 2015	800	70–72	–	10.3 13/14	[h]	7.9 10/11	[i]	19.9 25/27	6.0 7/8	[h]	2.4 0/2	[i]	38.8 60/62	12.4 15/17	18.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 46][p 47]	17–22 Aug 2015	955	64.4	–	11.7 16	[h]	9.3 12	[i]	17.9 25	4.7 4	[h]	4.4 5	[i]	36.3 57	12.3 16	18.4
NC Report/La Razón[p 48][p 49]	16–23 Jul 2015	1,255	64.6	–	12.0 18	[h]	8.2 10	[i]	19.1 27	4.2 3	[h]	4.6 5	[i]	35.8 56	12.8 16	16.7
JM&A/Público[p 50]	21 Jul 2015	?	74.1	–	7.6 10	[h]	6.7 9	[i]	15.7 21	7.2 10	[h]	3.6 3	[i]	39.2 59	17.0 23	22.2
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 51]	6–9 Jul 2015	1,000	69.5	–	7.5 9/10	[h]	6.6 7/9	[i]	17.0 21/23	[h]	[h]	3.3 2/3	[i]	46.7 68/72	17.5 22/23	29.2
			69.4	–	9.6 13	15.0 22	7.3 9/10	[i]	16.0 22	7.0 9/10	22.0 32/34	4.2 3/6	[i]	–	16.5 20/22	5.5
GAPS/Òmnium[p 52][p 53]	1–3 Jul 2015	820	?	–	9.0 12	[h]	9.0 12	[i]	16.0 20	8.0 10	[h]	4.0 3	[i]	32.0 52	20.0 26	12.0
			?	–	11.0 13	[h]	7.0 8	[i]	12.0 14	[h]	[h]	3.0 2	[i]	49.0 75	18.0 23	31.0
			?	–	12.0 15	15.0 25	6.0 8	[i]	17.0 21	10.0 12	19.0 30	3.0 2	[i]	–	17.0 22	2.0
GESOP/El Periódico[p 54][p 55][p 56]	17–21 Jun 2015	800	?	22.7 34/35	8.0 10/11	16.0 24/25	6.9 8/9	4.5 4/5	16.2 20/21	9.8 12/13	[j]	[j]	13.8 19/20	–	–	6.5
			?	–	7.8 10/11	13.8 20/21	5.9 6/7	4.2 4/5	15.1 19/20	9.4 12/13	23.1 34/36	4.7 6/7	13.8 18/19	–	–	8.0
			?[k]	–	7.0 8/9	12.9 19/20	6.0 6/7	[l]	14.9 19/20	8.2 11/12	22.4 33/35	4.6 6/7	[l]	–	22.4 30/31	Tie
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 57]	27–29 Apr 2015	1,000	66.5	22.6 35/36	9.9 12/13	16.6 26/27	6.6 9	6.6 8	19.1 26	7.9 10/11	[j]	[j]	6.3 6/8	–	–	3.5
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 58]	9 Feb–2 Mar 2015	2,000	68	19.5 31/32	8.2 11/12	18.9 30/31	10.2 13/14	5.8 6/8	12.4 16/17	7.3 10/11	[j]	[j]	12.2 16/17	–	–	0.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 59][p 60]	20–26 Feb 2015	800	?	20.1 31/32	7.9 10/11	17.3 27/28	9.8 12/13	6.9 8/9	17.8 23/24	7.1 9/10	[j]	[j]	9.8 11/12	–	–	2.3
CDC[p 61][p 62]	26 Jan 2015	?	?	? 43	? 10	? 30	? 10	? 6	? 16/17	? 7/8	[j]	[j]	? 10/11	–	–	?
NC Report/La Razón[p 63][p 64]	15–17 Jan 2015	955	66.1	21.5 34	10.7 15	21.7 33	9.9 13	5.8 7	12.9 16	3.5 3	[j]	[j]	11.4 14	–	–	0.2
Tàstic/ERC[m][p 65][p 66]	4–14 Dec 2014	2,073	?	17.9 31/33	5.0 11/12	22.3 36/38	2.1 5	3.9 4/5	9.7 13/14	5.9 7/8	[j]	[j]	21.5 24/25	–	–	0.8
			?	–	5.8	[h]	2.8	10.0	4.1	3.8	[h]	–	17.7	42.8	–	25.1
			?[n]	25.9	7.2	20.8	1.8	8.1	1.8	7.3	[j]	[j]	17.4	–	–	5.1
DYM/CEO[p 67]	9–13 Dec 2014	1,100	67	21.9 34/36	10.3 13/14	21.0 34/35	8.8 11/12	6.6 7/8	11.3 14/16	5.5 7/8	[j]	[j]	8.2 9/11	–	–	0.9
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 68]	1–4 Dec 2014	1,000	61.6	[h]	11.1 13	[h]	8.8 11	6.2 7	14.3 19	5.9 6	–	–	11.2 15	41.7 64	–	27.4
			67.7	26.7 40	9.3 12	18.8 27	7.2 9	4.9 6	13.7 19	6.5 8	[j]	[j]	11.3 14	–	–	7.9
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 69][p 70]	17–20 Nov 2014	800	?	23.8 36	10.2 14	22.1 34	7.4 9	4.5 4	9.7 14	3.8 4	[j]	[j]	14.3 20	–	–	1.7
GESOP/El Periódico[p 71][p 72][p 73]	14–17 Nov 2014	800	?	–	10.2 13/14	[h]	7.2 9/10	8.0 9/11	11.8 15/16	6.1 8	[h]	2.4 0	15.5 20/21	35.2 58/60	–	19.7
			?	20.8 32/34	8.2 10/11	19.9 31/33	7.8 10/11	8.2 10/11	13.5 16/17	5.2 6	[j]	[j]	13.8 16/17	–	–	0.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 74]	13–15 Nov 2014	?	66.4	22.8 34	10.8 16	21.0 32	10.0 13	6.0 7	12.0 15	3.7 4	[j]	[j]	10.9 14	–	–	1.8
JM&A[p 75][p 70]	7 Nov 2014	?	65.0	21.3 34	10.9 15	20.1 33	8.6 12	6.5 9	6.4 8	6.1 8	[j]	[j]	9.8 16	–	–	1.2
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 76]	29 Sep–23 Oct 2014	2,000	?	19.4 32/33	11.2 14/16	23.2 38/39	8.6 11/13	7.2 8/9	7.0 8/9	6.5 8/9	[j]	[j]	8.5 10/11	–	–	3.8
NC Report/La Razón[p 77]	14–18 Oct 2014	970	64.4	17.5 26/28	11.8 15/17	23.0 33/34	10.9 14/17	6.9 7/8	13.0 16/18	4.2 5	[j]	[j]	9.2 12	–	–	5.5
NC Report/La Razón[p 78][p 79]	1–6 Sep 2014	970	63.8	18.1 27/30	11.8 16/17	23.0 33/37	10.7 13/16	7.0 9	13.0 16/17	4.6 5/6	[j]	[j]	8.1 9/11	–	–	4.9
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 80][p 81][p 70]	26–29 Aug 2014	?	?	19.1 30	13.8 20	23.2 35	9.5 13	5.6 8	7.5 9	3.6 3	[j]	[j]	12.4 17	–	–	4.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 82][p 83]	22–26 Jul 2014	970	63.7	–	11.9	22.8	10.8	7.5	12.7	4.9	13.3	5.9	6.9	–	–	9.5
			63.7	19.2 29/31	11.9 16/18	22.8 33/35	10.8 13/16	7.5 9	12.7 16	4.9 6	[j]	[j]	6.9 8	–	–	3.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 84][p 85][p 86][p 87]	16–18 Jun 2014	800	?	–	7.7 10	23.4 39/40	6.9 8/9	8.7 11/12	11.7 16	4.5 6	17.5 27/29	5.1 6/7	8.0 9/10	–	–	5.9
			?	18.5 29/30	8.9 11/12	23.9 39	9.5 13	8.6 10/11	12.2 16/17	4.7 6	[j]	[j]	8.5 9/10	–	–	5.4
2014 EP election[p 88]	25 May 2014	—N/a	46.2	21.8 (36)	14.3 (20)	23.7 (40)	9.8 (13)	10.3 (14)	6.3 (7)	–	[j]	[j]	4.7 (5)	–	–	1.9
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 89]	30 Apr–8 May 2014	577	56.7	23.9 37	12.7 16	22.5 34	12.4 16	9.8 11	11.5 15	5.2 6	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	1.4
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 90]	24 Mar–15 Apr 2014	2,000	60	22.0 35/36	11.4 14/15	21.8 34/35	9.2 12/13	11.7 14/15	11.6 14/15	6.6 7/9	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	0.2
NC Report/La Razón[p 91][p 92]	7–12 Apr 2014	970	62.4	21.9 33/35	12.8 18	22.3 33/34	11.2 15/16	9.5 12	12.6 16/17	5.3 6	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	0.4
Ara[p 93]	15 Mar 2014	?	?	22.3	11.0	23.0	9.2	10.7	13.1	4.9	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	0.7
GESOP/El Periódico[p 94][p 95]	26–28 Feb 2014	800	?	22.5 35/36	11.0 14/15	21.7 34/35	9.0 12/13	11.5 14/15	13.9 17/18	4.5 6	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	0.8
Sondeos RA[p 96]	5–10 Feb 2014	1,000	68.4	22.9 34/36	11.2 13/15	23.2 36/38	10.8 13/15	9.6 12/14	13.1 16/18	5.5 6/7	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	0.3
NC Report/La Razón[p 97]	20–25 Jan 2014	970	63.3	22.8 33/34	12.6 17/18	20.8 31	11.8 16	9.9 14	10.9 16	5.3 7	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	2.0
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 98]	16–19 Dec 2013	1,000	61.2	22.4 34/36	12.4 16	23.5 35/37	9.5 13	10.1 12/13	14.2 18	4.4 5/6	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	1.1
NC Report/La Razón[p 99]	9–14 Dec 2013	880	64.5	22.9 35/36	12.1 16/17	21.9 32/33	11.7 14/16	9.9 13	11.1 15	6.0 7	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	1.0
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 100]	12–13 Dec 2013	1,000	?	24.3 38/39	12.5 16	20.6 32/34	11.5 15/16	8.7 11	10.2 12/14	6.0 7/9	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	3.7
GESOP/CEO[p 101]	4–14 Nov 2013	2,000	60	22.2 34/36	11.1 14/16	24.2 37/39	9.4 13/14	9.8 12/14	12.2 15/17	5.2 6/7	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	2.0
Metroscopia/El País[p 102][p 103][p 104]	28–30 Oct 2013	1,000	70	19.4 32	8.4 13	23.2 37	7.5 12	10.5 14	15.3 21	4.9 6	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	3.8
GESOP/El Periódico[p 105][p 106]	16–18 Oct 2013	800	?	20.2 31/32	11.1 14/16	22.8 36/38	10.1 13/14	11.5 14/15	13.5 16/18	4.4 5/6	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	2.6
Feedback/La Vanguardia[p 107]	30 Sep–4 Oct 2013	1,000	61.1	23.9 36/37	11.9 15/16	24.2 36/37	10.6 14/16	10.3 12/13	9.6 12/13	5.2 6	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	0.3
MyWord/Cadena SER[p 108]	2–7 Sep 2013	800	?	20.7	10.5	22.1	7.0	12.1	12.6	3.3	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	1.4
GESOP/CEO[p 109]	31 May–13 Jun 2013	2,000	60	22.8 35/37	12.1 16	24.4 38/39	10.4 13/14	9.6 13/14	9.5 12	4.9 6	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	1.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 110][p 111]	28–31 May 2013	800	?	21.4 34/35	12.2 16/17	24.3 39/40	10.2 13/14	12.2 15/16	10.0 12/13	3.5 3	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	2.9
NC Report/La Razón[p 112]	23 Mar 2013	?	64.9	26.2 39/42	12.0 15/16	17.9 27/28	12.9 18/19	9.2 12	10.9 14/15	5.8 7	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	8.3
GESOP/CEO[p 113]	4–14 Feb 2013	2,000	60	24.8 40/42	15.3 19/20	18.2 27/28	11.9 16/17	10.1 12/13	9.1 11/12	4.5 4/6	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	6.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 114]	14–16 Jan 2013	800	?	25.2 40/42	13.4 18/19	16.9 27/28	11.5 16/17	10.0 12/13	9.8 12/13	5.2 6/7	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	8.3
NC Report/La Razón[p 115]	16–21 Dec 2012	880	62.0	29.6 48	14.7 20	14.9 23	13.5 19	9.8 13	7.9 9	3.6 3	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	14.7
2012 regional election	25 Nov 2012	—N/a	67.8	30.7 50	14.4 20	13.7 21	13.0 19	9.9 13	7.6 9	3.5 3	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	16.3

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Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size													?	N	Lead
2015 regional election[o]	27 Sep 2015	—N/a	–	9.8	[h]	6.6	[i]	13.8	6.3	[h]	1.9	[i]	30.5	6.9	—N/a	22.6	16.7
MyWord/Cadena SER[p 20]	10–17 Sep 2015	1,000	–	6.6	[h]	4.2	[i]	10.6	7.9	[h]	1.1	[i]	35.9	8.1	20.4	3.6	25.3
Infortécnica[p 22]	16 Sep 2015	366	–	8.0	[h]	4.3	[i]	9.0	6.1	[h]	2.3	[i]	31.9	7.6	21.9	7.8	22.9
IMOP/CIS[p 38]	30 Aug–4 Sep 2015	2,999	–	7.4	[h]	3.9	[i]	8.8	5.6	[h]	1.0	[i]	32.3	8.6	26.1	2.8	23.5
GESOP/El Periódico[p 116]	31 Aug–2 Sep 2015	800	–	5.0	[h]	2.8	[i]	9.5	5.8	[h]	1.0	[i]	32.4	5.9	31.9	3.6	22.9
GESOP/El Periódico[p 117]	17–21 Jun 2015	800	17.4	6.8	15.9	2.8	4.0	11.6	8.9	[j]	[j]	11.9	–	–	12.4	4.6	1.5
			–	6.9	13.8	2.9	[l]	11.0	7.6	17.0	3.3	[l]	–	22.4	8.7	3.5	5.4
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 58]	9 Feb–2 Mar 2015	2,000	13.2	6.8	17.3	2.2	3.8	7.7	7.3	[j]	[j]	11.6	–	–	14.7	9.7	4.1
GESOP/El Periódico[p 118]	20–26 Feb 2015	800	14.6	5.1	16.8	3.1	4.4	13.9	5.9	[j]	[j]	8.6	–	–	15.1	5.5	2.2
Tàstic/ERC[p 65]	4–14 Dec 2014	2,073	14.4	4.0	17.9	1.7	3.1	7.8	4.7	[j]	[j]	17.3	–	–	19.6		0.6
			–	4.5	[h]	2.2	7.8	3.2	3.0	[h]	–	13.8	33.4	–	22.0		19.6
			18.8	5.2	15.1	1.3	5.9	1.3	5.3	[j]	[j]	12.6	–	–	27.4		3.7
DYM/CEO[p 67]	9–13 Dec 2014	1,100	14.0	4.8	17.2	1.8	3.9	5.5	4.4	[j]	[j]	4.6	–	–	29.4	9.0	3.2
GESOP/ICPS[p 119]	12 Nov–6 Dec 2014	1,200	16.2	8.2	19.7	1.7	3.7	4.5	7.0	[j]	[j]	11.1	–	–	14.2	9.3	3.5
GESOP/El Periódico[p 120]	14–17 Nov 2014	800	–	6.9	[h]	1.4	6.4	8.9	4.8	[h]	1.9	19.5	31.3	–	11.8	3.5	11.8
			16.1	4.3	20.0	1.3	5.5	9.5	3.8	[j]	[j]	12.8	–	–	16.4	5.1	3.9
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 76]	29 Sep–23 Oct 2014	2,000	13.8	5.8	21.4	2.2	3.7	2.2	6.2	[j]	[j]	6.2	–	–	18.4	11.9	7.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 121]	1–2 Sep 2014	800	8.4	4.9	19.0	3.4	4.5	4.4	1.8	[j]	[j]	8.1	–	–	30.4	9.0	10.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 122]	16–18 Jun 2014	800	–	4.0	21.9	1.9	6.9	6.8	3.6	11.0	2.6	7.1	–	–	20.5	6.1	10.9
			11.6	4.6	22.4	2.6	6.8	7.1	3.8	[j]	[j]	7.5	–	–	17.5	7.6	10.8
2014 EP election[o]	25 May 2014	—N/a	10.3	6.7	11.2	4.6	4.9	3.0	–	[j]	[j]	2.2	–	–	—N/a	52.4	0.9
Opinòmetre/CEO[p 90]	24 Mar–15 Apr 2014	2,000	14.5	6.1	20.0	1.6	5.0	4.0	6.4	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	20.1	14.8	5.5
GESOP/El Periódico[p 123]	26–28 Feb 2014	800	16.1	6.6	19.9	2.0	7.0	7.5	3.9	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	18.0	9.3	3.8
GESOP/CEO[p 101]	4–14 Nov 2013	2,000	17.2	5.6	21.1	1.4	6.2	5.3	3.9	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	20.9	10.8	3.9
Metroscopia/El País[p 104]	28–30 Oct 2013	1,000	15.4	6.7	19.4	3.6	6.6	10.0	3.9	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	20.6	7.2	4.0
GESOP/El Periódico[p 124]	16–18 Oct 2013	800	16.4	7.4	22.3	3.4	7.4	8.1	3.3	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	15.6	7.1	5.9
GESOP/ICPS[p 125]	25 Sep–10 Oct 2013	800	17.9	9.2	21.9	2.8	7.3	6.8	4.3	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	11.8	11.4	4.0
MyWord/Cadena SER[p 108]	2–7 Sep 2013	800	11.0	3.4	21.6	1.9	11.2	7.4	5.0	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	20.2	6.5	10.4
GESOP/CEO[p 109]	31 May–13 Jun 2013	2,000	18.2	6.9	22.0	2.1	7.4	5.1	4.8	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	16.2	9.9	3.8
GESOP/El Periódico[p 126]	28–31 May 2013	800	14.6	5.5	20.5	3.8	8.1	4.8	2.3	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	17.0	11.1	5.9
GESOP/CEO[p 113]	4–14 Feb 2013	2,000	19.3	6.6	20.9	1.8	9.5	4.2	4.4	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	18.1	8.6	1.6
GESOP/El Periódico[p 127]	14–16 Jan 2013	800	19.9	6.9	19.1	3.5	7.5	7.0	4.8	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	16.1	8.3	0.8
2012 regional election[o]	25 Nov 2012	—N/a	21.2	10.0	9.4	9.0	6.8	5.2	2.4	[j]	[j]	–	–	–	—N/a	30.4	11.2

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