2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut
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The 2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]
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November 8, 2016
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| Turnout | 76.94%  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Clinton won the state by 13.64%, a smaller margin of victory than outgoing President Barack Obama's 17.33% in 2012.[2] Clinton carried six of the state's eight counties; however, Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Windham County since George H. W. Bush in 1988. This is the first election since 1940 in which Connecticut did not vote the same as Michigan, something that would be seen again in 2024.
Trump's strongest county in the state was rural Litchfield County, while Clinton's biggest win was in adjacent, more urban Hartford County.[3] Areas that swung in Clinton's favor were mainly concentrated in suburban Fairfield County, in towns like Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan, and Westport.[4][3] This area is home to many New York City commuters. Other Democratic swings happened in suburbs outside Hartford, such as Avon, Granby, East Granby, and Glastonbury, as well as outside New Haven, in towns like Guilford, Madison, and Woodbridge.[4][3] This was the first time since 1888 that Darien and the first time since 1912 that Easton voted Democratic, largely due to opposition to the populist Trump among historically Republican affluent and educated voters. By contrast, areas that swung hard for Trump were mainly located in Windham County and northern New London County, in towns like Killingly, Sterling, Plainfield, and Voluntown.[5] This mirrored a national trend of Trump gaining White working-class support.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[6]
Opinion polling
Results
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 170,045 | 51.80% | 28 | 15 | 43 |
| Bernie Sanders | 152,379 | 46.42% | 27 | 0 | 27 |
| Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente | 960 | 0.29% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 4,871 | 1.48% | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 328,255 | 100% | 55 | 16 | 71 |
| Source: [7][8] | |||||
Republican primary
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 40–50%
Four candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6]
- Ben Carson (withdrawn)
- Ted Cruz
- John Kasich
- Donald Trump
Opinion polling
Results
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 123,523 | 57.86% | 28 | 0 | 28 |
| John Kasich | 60,522 | 28.35% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ted Cruz | 24,987 | 11.70% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 2,728 | 1.28% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson (withdrawn) | 1,733 | 0.81% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 213,493 | 100.00% | 28 | 0 | 28 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
General election
Polling
Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. An average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton leading 49% to 38%, and the final poll showed Clinton leading Trump 50% to 35%.[9]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[10] | Safe D | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[11] | Safe D | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[12] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[13] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[14] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[16] | Lean D | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[17] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | 897,572 | 54.57% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump | 673,215 | 40.93% | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | 48,676 | 2.96% | |
| Green | Jill Stein | 22,841 | 1.39% | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin (write-in) | 2,108 | 0.13% | |
| Write-in | 361 | 0.02% | ||
| Constitution | Darrell Castle (write-in) | 147 | 0.01% | |
| Total votes | 1,644,920 | 100.00% | ||
By county
| County | Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gary Johnson Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Fairfield | 243,852 | 57.89% | 160,077 | 38.00% | 11,691 | 2.78% | 4,866 | 1.16% | 723 | 0.18% | 83,775 | 19.89% | 421,209 |
| Hartford | 240,403 | 59.09% | 148,173 | 36.42% | 11,997 | 2.95% | 5,680 | 1.40% | 611 | 0.15% | 92,230 | 22.67% | 406,864 |
| Litchfield | 39,775 | 40.82% | 53,051 | 54.44% | 3,004 | 3.08% | 1,441 | 1.48% | 171 | 0.17% | -13,276 | -13.62% | 97,442 |
| Middlesex | 45,357 | 51.18% | 38,867 | 43.86% | 2,760 | 3.11% | 1,497 | 1.69% | 143 | 0.16% | 6,490 | 7.32% | 88,624 |
| New Haven | 205,609 | 54.25% | 159,048 | 41.96% | 9,119 | 2.41% | 4,757 | 1.26% | 473 | 0.13% | 46,561 | 12.29% | 379,006 |
| New London | 62,278 | 50.42% | 54,058 | 43.76% | 4,744 | 3.84% | 2,220 | 1.80% | 228 | 0.19% | 8,220 | 6.66% | 123,528 |
| Tolland | 38,506 | 49.73% | 34,194 | 44.16% | 3,181 | 4.11% | 1,370 | 1.77% | 173 | 0.23% | 4,312 | 5.57% | 77,424 |
| Windham | 21,792 | 42.88% | 25,747 | 50.66% | 2,180 | 4.29% | 1,010 | 1.99% | 94 | 0.18% | -3,955 | -7.78% | 50,823 |
| Total | 897,572 | 54.57% | 673,215 | 40.93% | 48,676 | 2.96% | 22,841 | 1.39% | 2,616 | 0.16% | 224,357 | 13.64% | 1,644,920 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Clinton won all five congressional districts.[19]
| District | Clinton | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 59% | 36% | John B. Larson |
| 2nd | 49% | 46% | Joe Courtney |
| 3rd | 56% | 40% | Rosa DeLauro |
| 4th | 60% | 37% | Jim Himes |
| 5th | 50% | 46% | Elizabeth Esty |
Turnout
According to Connecticut's Secretary of State Elections Night Reporting website, voter turnout was 76.94% with 1,675,934 voters checked reported out of 2,178,169 Registered Voters Reported.[20]