2016 United States presidential election in Hawaii
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The 2016 United States presidential election in Hawaii was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated. Hawaii voters chose four electors to represent the state in the Electoral College by popular vote.[1]
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November 8, 2016
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Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and her running mate, Virginia Senator Tim Kaine, defeated New York businessman Donald Trump and his running mate, Indiana Governor Mike Pence, by 32.18 percentage points. Clinton carried Hawaii with 62.22% of the vote — her highest share in any state — though her margin was substantially smaller than Barack Obama's 70.55% in 2012. Trump received 30.04% of the vote, an improvement of about 2.2 points over Mitt Romney's 2012 performance.[2] Hawaii was one of only two states — the other being Massachusetts — in which Clinton carried every county. The state also produced Green Party nominee Jill Stein's strongest result of any state, at 2.97%.
Exit polling reported by Honolulu Civil Beat indicated that Clinton dominated among Hawaii's large Asian American electorate, while Trump performed comparatively better with white voters, Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders, and households with a connection to the U.S. military.[3]
Although all four of Hawaii's electors had pledged to support the Clinton–Kaine ticket, one faithless elector, Honolulu activist David Mulinix, cast his presidential ballot for Bernie Sanders and his vice-presidential ballot for Elizabeth Warren. The remaining three electors voted as pledged.[4]
Background
Hawaii has been a reliably Democratic state in presidential elections since the late 1980s, voting Democratic in every cycle from 1988 onward. The state's most prominent political figure of the modern era, Barack Obama, was born in Honolulu and graduated from Punahou School; he carried Hawaii in 2008 with 71.85% — the highest share for any major-party nominee in any state — and again in 2012 with 70.55%. Heading into the 2016 cycle, every major election forecaster rated Hawaii as a safe Democratic state, and neither major-party nominee mounted a meaningful contest for its four electoral votes.
Caucuses
Democratic caucuses
The Democratic Party of Hawaii held its presidential caucuses on March 26, 2016. Four candidates appeared on the ballot:
Sanders defeated Clinton by a roughly two-to-one margin (about 69.8% to 30.0%) in the caucus vote and won the majority of pledged delegates to the 2016 Democratic National Convention. Delegates were allocated proportionally at both the statewide and congressional district levels.
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Bernie Sanders | 23,530 | 69.8% | 17 | 2 | 19 |
| Hillary Clinton | 10,125 | 30.0% | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 12 | 0.0% | |||
| Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) | 6 | 0.0% | |||
| Uncommitted | 43 | 0.1% | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Total | 33,716 | 100% | 25 | 9 | 34 |
| Source: [5] | |||||
Republican caucuses
The Hawaii Republican Party held its presidential caucuses on March 8, 2016. Twelve candidates appeared on the ballot, several of whom had already suspended their campaigns by the time of the caucus:
- Donald Trump
- Ted Cruz
- Marco Rubio
- John Kasich
- Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
- Ben Carson (withdrawn)
- Chris Christie (withdrawn)
- Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)
- Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)
- Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)
- Rand Paul (withdrawn)
- Rick Santorum (withdrawn)
Trump finished first with about 42.4% of the vote, followed by Cruz (32.7%), Rubio (13.2%), and Kasich (10.6%). Pledged delegates to the 2016 Republican National Convention were awarded proportionally at the statewide and congressional district levels.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 6,805 | 43.32% | 11 | 0 | 11 |
| Ted Cruz | 5,063 | 32.23% | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Marco Rubio | 2,068 | 13.17% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| John Kasich | 1,566 | 9.97% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson (withdrawn) | 146 | 0.93% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 24 | 0.15% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Write-In | 25 | 0.16% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spoiled | 11 | 0.07% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 15,708 | 100.00% | 19 | 0 | 19 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
General election
Campaign
Neither major-party nominee made an in-person campaign appearance in Hawaii during the general election, and very little broadcast advertising was purchased in the state by either side. With the state consistently rated "Safe Democratic" by every major forecaster, both campaigns concentrated their resources on contiguous swing states; Hawaii's geographic isolation and modest electoral vote count further reduced its strategic value. Surrogates for the Clinton campaign — including First Lady Michelle Obama and Senator Bernie Sanders — appeared at fundraisers and rallies in the islands earlier in the cycle, but no comparable Trump campaign events were held.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[6] | Safe D | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[7] | Safe D | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[8] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[9] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[10] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[12] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[13] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
Results
| 2016 United States presidential election in Hawaii[14] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | Tim Kaine | 266,891 | 62.22% | 3 | |
| Republican | Donald Trump | Mike Pence | 128,847 | 30.04% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | William Weld | 15,954 | 3.72% | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein | Ajamu Baraka | 12,737 | 2.97% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Darrell Castle | Scott Bradley | 4,508 | 1.05% | 0 | |
| Democratic[b] | Bernie Sanders | Elizabeth Warren | — | — | 1 | |
| Totals | 428,937 | 100.00% | 4 | |||
By county
| County | Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Hawaii | 41,259 | 63.61% | 17,501 | 26.98% | 6,107 | 9.41% | 23,758 | 36.63% | 64,867 |
| Honolulu | 175,696 | 61.48% | 90,326 | 31.61% | 19,768 | 6.91% | 85,370 | 29.87% | 285,790 |
| Kalawao | 14 | 70.00% | 1 | 5.00% | 5 | 25.00% | 13 | 65.00% | 20 |
| Kauaʻi | 16,456 | 62.49% | 7,574 | 28.76% | 2,305 | 8.75% | 8,882 | 33.73% | 26,335 |
| Maui | 33,480 | 64.45% | 13,446 | 25.89% | 5,019 | 9.66% | 20,034 | 38.56% | 51,945 |
| Totals | 266,905 | 62.22% | 128,848 | 30.04% | 33,204 | 7.74% | 138,057 | 32.18% | 428,957 |
Note: Sums of county-level results differ slightly (by roughly 20 votes) from the certified statewide totals reported by the Hawaii Office of Elections due to ballot-reconciliation differences for overseas and military absentee returns.[14]
By congressional district
Clinton carried both of Hawaii's congressional districts.[15]
| District | Clinton | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 63% | 31% | Colleen Hanabusa |
| 2nd | 61% | 30% | Tulsi Gabbard |
Analysis
Although Clinton's 32-point margin made Hawaii one of her strongest states, it represented a clear narrowing relative to the Obama-era results: the Democratic share fell by more than eight percentage points from 2012, while the Republican share rose by about 2.2 points. Local commentators attributed Trump's relative gains to a combination of the state's substantial military and veteran communities, segments of the Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander electorate that had not been strongly Democratic-aligned in earlier cycles, and a national environment that was less favorable to the Democratic nominee than the cycles in which Obama had run.[3]
Hawaii was one of only two states — alongside Massachusetts — in which Clinton carried every county. It was also the strongest state in the country for Green Party nominee Jill Stein, who received 2.97% of the vote, narrowly missing the 3% threshold she did not clear in any state.
The state contributed the only faithless presidential elector from a Clinton-pledged slate. David Mulinix, a Honolulu activist, told the Associated Press that he had cast his presidential ballot for Sanders to draw attention to perceived inequities in the Electoral College and to honor Sanders's strong showing in Hawaii's Democratic caucuses.[4]
Aftermath
Hawaii's strong Democratic alignment continued in subsequent presidential elections. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump 63.73% to 34.27%, and in 2024, Kamala Harris carried the state over Trump by a comparable margin. Hawaii has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988.
See also
Notes
- All four of Hawaii's electors were pledged to the Clinton–Kaine ticket. One faithless elector instead cast a presidential ballot for Bernie Sanders and a vice-presidential ballot for Elizabeth Warren, so Clinton received three electoral votes and Sanders received one.
- Cast by Hawaii's faithless elector David Mulinix, who was pledged to Clinton but voted for Sanders for president and Warren for vice president. Sanders and Warren did not appear on the Hawaii general-election ballot and received no popular votes.