2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Hawaii and lieutenant governor of Hawaii.
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November 6, 2018
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   Ige: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Tupola: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Tie: 40–50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality.
Republicans Andria Tupola and Marissa Kerns headed one of two 2018 major-party gubernatorial tickets that included two women. The other such ticket had Idaho's 2018 Democratic nominees for governor and lieutenant governor, Paulette Jordan and Kristin Collum.[1] This was Hawaii's only gubernatorial election since 1994 without Linda Lingle or Duke Aiona as the Republican nominee, as well as the first since the 1990 election in which the winner was of a different party than the incumbent president. This was also the first time since 1998 that a Democratic governor of Hawaii was re-elected.
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
Withdrew
- Clayton Hee, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014[8][9]
Debates
| Dates | Location | Ige | Hanabusa | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2018 | Honolulu, Hawaii | Participant | Participant | Full debate – YouTube |
Endorsements
Colleen Hanabusa
- Individuals
- Ben Cayetano, former governor of Hawai'i[10]
- Tulsi Gabbard, congresswoman for HI-2[11]
- Shan Tsutsui, former lieutenant governor of Hawai'i[12]
- Organizations
- Hawaii Building and Construction Trades Council[13]
- Hawaii Fire Fighters Association[13]
- Hawaii Government Employees Association[13]
- Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters[13]
- Hawaii State AFL-CIO[13]
- International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU)[13]
- International Union of Operating Engineers[13]
- International Union of Painters and Associated Trades[13]
- Laborers' International Union of North America[13]
- Seafarers International Union[13]
- State of Hawaii Organization of Police Officers[13]
- University of Hawaii Professional Assembly[13]
- The Maui News[14]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige |
Colleen Hanabusa |
Clayton Hee |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group[15] | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | – | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon[16] | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 40% | – | 16% |
| QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)[17] | June 21 – July 6, 2018 | 518 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 57% | – | 11% |
| QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)[18] | April 21 – May 7, 2018 | 888 | ± 3.4% | 23% | 52% | 6% | 19% |
| Merriman River Group[19] | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 31% | 37% | 11% | 16% |
| Mason-Dixon[20] | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 27% | 47% | 11% | 15% |
Results
Ige—50–60%
Ige—40–50%
Hanabusa—40–50%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 124,572 | 51.4 | |
| Democratic | Colleen Hanabusa | 107,631 | 44.4 | |
| Democratic | Ernest Caravalho | 5,662 | 2.3 | |
| Democratic | Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a | 2,298 | 0.9 | |
| Democratic | Richard Kim | 1,576 | 0.6 | |
| Democratic | Van Tanabe | 775 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 242,514 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Bernard Carvalho, mayor of Kauaʻi County[22]
- Will Espero, State Senate vice president and candidate for HI-01 in 2014[23]
- Josh Green, state senator[4][24][23]
- Kim Coco Iwamoto, former state board of education member[25]
- Jill Tokuda, state senator[3]
Withdrew
- Alan Arakawa, mayor of Maui County[26] (running for Maui County Council)[27]
Endorsements
Josh Green
Kim Coco Iwamoto
- Organizations
- Individuals
- Daniel Foley, attorney in Baehr v. Miike and retired judge of the Hawaii Intermediate Court of Appeals[34]
Jill Tokuda
- Organizations
- University of Hawaii Professional Assembly[35]
- International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 142[36]
- Individuals
- U.S. Senator Mazie Hirono[37]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bernard Carvalho |
Will Espero |
Josh Green |
Kim Coco Iwamoto |
Jill Tokuda |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group[38] | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 13% | 5% | 31% | 10% | 17% | 26% |
| Mason-Dixon[16] | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 6% | 34% | 10% | 14% | 22% |
| Merriman River Group[39] | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 19% | 8% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 32% |
| Mason-Dixon[20] | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 9% | 19% | 5% | 12% | 41% |
Results
Green—50–60%
Green—30–40%
Tokuda—30–40%
Carvalho—40–50%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Josh Green | 74,845 | 31.4 | |
| Democratic | Jill Tokuda | 68,124 | 28.6 | |
| Democratic | Bernard Carvalho | 45,825 | 19.2 | |
| Democratic | Kim Coco Iwamoto | 34,243 | 14.3 | |
| Democratic | Will Espero | 15,463 | 6.5 | |
| Total votes | 238,500 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- John Carroll, former state representative, and former state senator[7][40]
- Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, former assistant superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel[41]
- Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives[42][40]
Withdrew
- Bob McDermott, state representative and nominee for HI-02 in 2002[43][44]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Carroll |
Raymond L'Heureux |
Andria Tupola |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group[46] | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 22% | 4% | 39% | 22% |
| Mason-Dixon[47] | July 6–11, 2018 | 143 | ± 8.4% | 28% | 8% | 41% | 23% |
| Mason-Dixon[20] | March 13–18, 2018 | 134 | ± 8.6% | 40% | – | 28% | 32% |
Results
Tupola—50–60%
Tupola—40–50%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Andria Tupola | 17,297 | 55.5 | |
| Republican | John Carroll | 10,974 | 35.2 | |
| Republican | Ray L'Heureux | 2,885 | 9.3 | |
| Total votes | 31,156 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Marissa Kerns
- Steve Lipscomb
- Jeremy Low
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marissa Kerns |
Jeremy Low |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group[48] | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 26% | 20% | 54% |
Results
Kerns—30–40%
Lipscomb—30–40%
Tie—30–40%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marissa Dipasupil Kerns | 9,758 | 35.4 | |
| Republican | Steve Lipscomb | 9,543 | 34.7 | |
| Republican | Jeremy Low | 8,232 | 29.9 | |
| Total votes | 27,533 | 100.0 | ||
Green primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Jim Brewer
Results
Brewer—100%
No data
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Renee Ing
Results
Ing—100%
No data
Nonpartisan primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Selina Blackwell
- Link El
- Terrence Teruya
Results
Teruya—50–60%
Blackwell—40–50%
Blackwell—50–60%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonpartisan | Terrence Teruya | 543 | 47.7 | |
| Nonpartisan | Selina Blackwell | 497 | 43.7 | |
| Nonpartisan | Link El | 98 | 8.6 | |
| Total votes | 1,138 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
Candidates
Declared
- Ernest Magaoay
- Paul Robotti
Results
Robotti—50–60%
Magaoay—50–60%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonpartisan | Paul Robotti | 536 | 50.6 | |
| Nonpartisan | Ernest Magaoay | 523 | 49.4 | |
| Total votes | 1,059 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[49] | Safe D | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[50] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[51] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[52] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[54] | Safe D | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[55] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[56][a] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[57] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[58] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Debates
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige (D) |
Andria Tupola (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group[60] | October 8–12, 2018 | 961 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | 11% |
| Mason-Dixon[61] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon[20] | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 24% | 25% |
Hypothetical polling
with David Ige and John Carroll
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige (D) |
John Carroll (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[61] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Mason-Dixon[20] | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 27% | 21% |
with David Ige and Raymond L'Heureux
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige (D) |
Raymond L'Heureux (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[61] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 67% | 20% | 13% |
with Colleen Hanabusa and John Carroll
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Colleen Hanabusa (D) |
John Carroll (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[61] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon[20] | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 31% | 12% |
with Colleen Hanabusa and Andria Tupola
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Colleen Hanabusa (D) |
Andria Tupola (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[61] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
| Mason-Dixon[20] | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 28% | 16% |
with Colleen Hanabusa and Raymond L'Heureux
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Colleen Hanabusa (D) |
Raymond L'Heureux (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[61] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 58% | 26% | 16% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 244,934 | 62.67% |  13.22 | |
| Republican | Andria Tupola | 131,719 | 33.70% |  3.38 | |
| Green | Jim Brewer | 10,123 | 2.59% | N/A | |
| Nonpartisan | Terrence Teruya | 4,067 | 1.04% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 390,843 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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By congressional district
Ige won both congressional districts.[63]
| District | Ige | Tupola | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 64% | 33% | Colleen Hanabusa (117th Congress) |
| Ed Case (118th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 61% | 35% | Tulsi Gabbard |