2021 Ohio's 15th congressional district special election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
On May 16, 2021, Representative Steve Stivers resigned from his seat in the United States House of Representatives to become president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce.[2] Following Stivers' official communication of his intent to resign, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine announced that the special election to fill the remainder of his term would be held on November 2, 2021, with the primary election held on August 3, concurrent with the special election in Ohio's 11th congressional district.[3][4] In the general election on November 2, Republican nominee Mike Carey defeated Democratic nominee Allison Russo by 26,913 votes.
.jpg)
 | |||||||||||||||||
November 2, 2021
| |||||||||||||||||
Ohio's 15th congressional district | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turnout | 32.25%[1] | ||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Carey: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Russo: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mike Carey, vice president of government affairs at American Consolidated Natural Resources[5]
Eliminated in primary
- John Adams, owner of Green Valley Chemicals[5]
- Eric M. Clark, LPN at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base[5]
- Thad Cooperrider, former Perry County commissioner[5]
- Ruth Edmonds, advisory board member at Ohio's Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives[6][7]
- Ron Hood, former state representative[5]
- Thomas Hwang, owner of the Virtues Golf Club[5]
- Stephanie Kunze, state senator[8]
- Jeff LaRe, state representative[8]
- Bob Peterson, state senator[9]
- Omar Tarazi, attorney and Hilliard city councilmember[10][11]
Withdrawn
- Brian Stewart, state representative[12]
Declined
- Jeff Fix, Fairfield County commissioner[5]
Endorsements
Mike Carey
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[13]
U.S. representatives
- Elise Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–present) and U.S. representative from NY-21 (2015–present)[14]
Individuals
- Corey Lewandowski, senior advisor to former President Donald Trump[5]
Stephanie Kunze
Organizations
- Franklin County, Ohio Republican Party
- Maggie's List[15]
Jeff LaRe
U.S. representatives
- Steve Stivers, former U.S. representative from OH-15 (2011–2021)[16]
State representatives
- Cindy Abrams (R-Harrison), Assistant Majority Whip
- Adam Bird (R-New Richmond)
- Sara Carruthers (R- Hamilton)
- Jon Cross (R-Kenton)
- Haraz Ghanbari (R-Perrysburg)
- Thomas Hall (R-Madison Twp.)
- Brett Hillyer (R-Uhrichsville)
- Mike Loychik (R-Bazetta)
- Gail Pavliga (R-Portage County)
- Phil Plummer (R-Dayton)
- Bill Seitz (R-Cincinnati), Majority Floor Leader
- Reggie Stoltzfus (R-Paris Twp.)
- D. J. Swearingen (R-Huron)
- Bob Young (R-Green)
- Tom Young (R-Washington Twp.)
- Organizations
- Left or Right Politics
Bob Peterson
U.S. representatives
- Steve Austria, former U.S. representative from OH-07 (2009–2013)[17]
- Dave Hobson, former U.S. representative from OH-07 (1991–2009)[17]
State legislators
- Bob Hackett, Ohio state senator
- Jay Hottinger, president pro tempore of the Ohio Senate (2021–present) from District 31 (1998–2006; 2015–present)[17]
- Mark Johnson, Ohio state representative from District 92 (2021–present)[17]
- Tim Schaffer, Ohio state senator from District 20 (2019–present)[17]
County commissioners
- Harold "Champ" Henson, III, Pickaway County, Ohio
- Gary Scherer, Pickaway County, Ohio, commissioner and former Ohio state representative from District 92 (2012–2020)[17]
Ron Hood
U.S. senators
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present)[18]
Ruth Edmonds
Individuals
- James Dobson, evangelical Christian author, psychologist, and founder of Focus on the Family[19]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
John Adams |
Mike Carey |
Eric Clark |
Thad Cooperrider |
Ruth Edmonds |
Ron Hood |
Thomas Hwang |
Stephanie Kunze |
Jeff LaRe |
Bob Peterson |
Omar Tarazi |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Lee & Associates (R)[20][A] | June 23–24, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | <1% | 20% | 0% | 2% | <1% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 44% |
Results
Carey
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
Peterson
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Carey | 18,805 | 36.3 | |
| Republican | Jeff LaRe | 6,776 | 13.1 | |
| Republican | Ron Hood | 6,676 | 12.9 | |
| Republican | Bob Peterson | 6,407 | 12.4 | |
| Republican | Ruth Edmonds | 5,090 | 9.8 | |
| Republican | Thomas Hwang | 2,499 | 4.8 | |
| Republican | Stephanie Kunze | 2,363 | 4.6 | |
| Republican | Thad Cooperrider | 1,076 | 2.1 | |
| Republican | Omar Tarazi | 907 | 1.7 | |
| Republican | John Adams | 173 | 0.3 | |
| Republican | Eric M. Clark | 83 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 51,855 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Allison Russo, state representative[22][23]
Eliminated in primary
- Greg Betts[5]
Declined
- Tina Maharath, state senator[22][24]
- Joel Newby, attorney and nominee for Ohio's 15th congressional district in 2020[25]
- Steve Patterson, mayor of Athens (endorsed Russo)[26][27]
- Michael Stinziano, Franklin County auditor[5]
Endorsements
Allison Russo
U.S. senators
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio (2007–present)[28]
Local officials
Organizations
Results
Russo
- Russo—70–80%
- Russo—80–90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Allison Russo | 13,704 | 84.2 | |
| Democratic | Greg Betts | 2,576 | 15.8 | |
| Total votes | 16,280 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[31] | Likely R | August 4, 2021 |
| Inside Elections[32] | Solid R | October 27, 2021 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] | Likely R | August 4, 2021 |
Endorsements
Mike Carey (R)
Executive branch officials
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021)[34]
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[13]
U.S. representatives
- Elise Stefanik, chair of the House Republican Conference (2021–present) and U.S. representative from NY-21 (2015–present)[35]
Individuals
- Corey Lewandowski, senior advisor to former President Donald Trump[5]
Allison Russo (D)
Executive branch officials
- Joe Biden, 46th president of the United States (2021–present)[36]
U.S. senators
- Sherrod Brown, U.S. senator from Ohio (2007–present)[37]
Local officials
Organizations
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Carey (R) |
Allison Russo (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[40] | October 14–16, 2021 | 445 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 39% | 11% |
- Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mike Carey | 94,501 | 58.30% | –5.11 | |
| Democratic | Allison Russo | 67,588 | 41.70% | +5.13 | |
| Total votes | 162,089 | 100.0% | |||
| Turnout | [a]165,026 | 32.25% | |||
| Registered electors | 511,773 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||