2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election
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The 2022 New York's 19th congressional district special election for New York's 19th congressional district was held on August 23, 2022, to fill the vacancy created by Democratic U.S. representative Antonio Delgado who resigned to become lieutenant governor of New York.[2][3][4] Democratic nominee Pat Ryan defeated Republican nominee Marc Molinaro in what was seen as an upset due to Molinaro's lead in polls and fundraising in the weeks leading to the election.[5]
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August 23, 2022
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New York's 19th congressional district | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| Turnout | 27.16%[1] | |||||||||||||||||||
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Ryan: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Molinaro: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Candidates
Democratic Party
Nominee
- Pat Ryan, Ulster County executive and candidate for this district in 2018[6]
Declined
- Michelle Hinchey, state senator from the 46th district (endorsed Ryan)[4][7]
- Zephyr Teachout, special advisor in the office of the Attorney General of New York, Fordham University law professor; candidate for governor in 2014, nominee for this district in 2016, candidate for attorney general in 2018 and 2022[3]
Republican Party
Nominee
- Marc Molinaro, Dutchess County executive and former state assemblyman; nominee for governor in 2018[3]
Endorsements
- U.S. representatives
- Sean Patrick Maloney, NY-18 (2013–2023)[6]
- Statewide officials
- Antonio Delgado, lieutenant governor of New York (2022–present)[6]
- Thomas DiNapoli, comptroller of New York (2007–present)[8]
- Kathy Hochul, governor of New York (2021–present)[6]
- State legislators
- Michelle Hinchey, SD-46 (2021–present)[9][10]
- Local officials
- 8 mayors[a]
- Organizations
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Tossup | May 5, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Tossup | July 21, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean R (flip) | May 11, 2022 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Pat Ryan (D) |
Marc Molinaro (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D)[20] | August 17–22, 2022 | 1,222 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 53% | 2% |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D)[21][A] | August 6–8, 2022 | 480 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[22][B] | July 26–28, 2022 | 407 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 40% | 50% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[23][C] | June 29–30, 2022 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 43% | 16% |
| Triton Polling & Research (R)[24][B] | June 16–20, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 52% | 10% |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of August 3, 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Amount raised | Amount spent | Cash on hand |
| Marc Molinaro (R) | $1,593,762 | $993,626 | $600,136 |
| Pat Ryan (D) | $1,582,369 | $1,265,848 | $316,522 |
| Source: OpenSecrets[25] | |||
Results
Pat Ryan won the election with 66,088 votes or 51.2% of the vote compared to Marc Molinaro's 48.8% of the vote or 63,010 votes. This defied most polls, which had Molinaro winning by a somewhat comfortable margin as well as Sabato's Crystal Ball rating of Lean R. His victory can be attributed to his large margins in Ulster County. Ryan overperformed Joe Biden's 2020 margin in this district by about 0.8%. The result was considered an upset by some, as Molinaro had led by as much as 14 percentage points in public polling of the race, and Molinaro outspent Ryan on television advertising.[26][27] Ryan's victory led some forecasters to change some of their predictions for the 2022 House election.[28]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Pat Ryan | 58,636 | 45.39% | –2.61 | |
| Working Families | Pat Ryan | 7,452 | 5.77% | –0.78 | |
| Total | Pat Ryan | 66,088 | 51.15% | –3.64 | |
| Republican | Marc Molinaro | 52,514 | 40.65% | –2.55 | |
| Conservative | Marc Molinaro | 10,496 | 8.12% | N/A | |
| Total | Marc Molinaro | 63,010 | 48.77% | +5.57 | |
| Write-in | 96 | 0.07% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 129,194 | 100.00% | |||
| Turnout | 129,328 | 27.16% | |||
| Registered electors | 476,134 | ||||
| Democratic hold | |||||
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
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See also
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Partisan clients