2023 Dutch Senate election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
An election to the Dutch Senate was held on 30 May 2023.[2] The 75 members of the Senate were elected by members of the provincial councils and electoral colleges elected two months earlier in provincial and electoral college elections.
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30 May 2023
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All 75 seats in the Senate 38 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
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The four coalition parties saw their combined seat count decrease from 32 to 24. The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which had come first in the provincial elections, entered the Senate with 16 seats. The Labour Party and GroenLinks, which intend to form a joint parliamentary group, won a combined 14 seats.
Background
From 2017, the Netherlands had had coalition governments consisting of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU). In the 2019 Senate election, this coalition lost its majority in the Senate, holding 32 seats. Being 6 seats short of a majority made it necessary for the government to seek cooperation with opposition parties such as the Labour Party (PvdA), GroenLinks and JA21 in order to get legislation through the Senate. The coalition parties were long expected to lose more seats in the 2023 Senate election, which would make it more difficult for the government to find majorities for important legislation.[3]
In June 2022, members of the PvdA and GroenLinks voted in favour of the formation of a joint Senate group after the 2023 election. This made the election an important step for the GroenLinks–PvdA alliance.[4]
From 2019, the government had had the intention to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill had met resistance from several opposition parties including the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. With BBB expected to become a significant force in the Senate after the 2023 election, the government was expected to look to the left for support. However, in early March 2023, PvdA and GroenLinks, as well as other left-wing parties, also announced their intention to vote against the nitrogen bill in the Senate.[5] The government was also expected to face difficulty finding majorities for its climate legislation[6] and its Dispersal Act concerning the distribution of asylum seekers.[7]
The government was therefore expected to have to make concessions to opposition parties on these pieces of legislation. However, voters of coalition parties were divided over the question whether the government should turn "left" or "right" in search of support for its legislation. A March 2023 poll showed that a majority of D66 voters wanted the government to cooperate with GroenLinks–PvdA, while a majority of VVD and CDA voters would preferred for the government to cooperate with BBB.[8]
Electoral system
The Senate consists of 75 members elected every four years by the members of the provincial councils of the country's twelve provinces, and, following law changes in 2017 and 2022, electoral colleges representing the special municipalities of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba[9][10] and Dutch nationals living abroad, who are in turn elected directly by the citizens two months earlier in the 2023 provincial and electoral college elections.
The weight of each elector's vote is determined by the population of the province or special municipality which the elector represents, at a ratio of approximately 1 vote per 100 residents. The seats are distributed in one nationwide constituency using party-list proportional representation.[11]
Electors
| Party or alliance | Popular Vote | Provincial councils | Electoral colleges | Total | +/− | |||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DR | FL | FR | GE | GR | LI | NB | NH | OV | UT | ZE | ZH | NI | BO | SA | SE | |||||||
| Farmer–Citizen Movement | 1,488,372 | 17 | 10 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 7 | 9 | 8 | — | — | — | — | 137 | New | |||
| GL–PvdA | GroenLinks[b] | 699,531[c] | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 5 | — | — | — | 59 | −2 | ||
| Labour Party[b] | 632,112[c] | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 51 | −2 | |||
| Total | 1,356,180[d] | 6 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 110 | −4 | |||
| People's Party for Freedom and Democracy | 869,954 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 4 | — | — | — | 67 | −13 | |||
| Christian Democratic Appeal | 516,312 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | — | — | 1 | 45 | −27 | |||
| Democrats 66 | 496,161 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | — | — | — | 36 | −5 | |||
| Party for Freedom | 446,301 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | — | — | — | — | 34 | −6 | |||
| Party for the Animals | 376,357 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | — | — | — | 27 | +7 | |||
| JA21 | 343,313 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 24 | New | |||
| Socialist Party | 330,086 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 24 | −11 | |||
| CU–SGP | Christian Union[e] | 283,986[f] | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 23 | −9 | ||
| Reformed Political Party | 196,150[f] | — | 2 | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | — | — | — | — | 16 | +2 | |||
| Total | 497,508[g] | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 39 | −7 | |||
| Forum for Democracy | 239,726 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | 17 | −69 | |||
| OPNL | Frisian National Party | 27,298 | — | — | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0 | ||
| Groninger Belang | 17,385 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0 | |||
| Lokaal Brabant | 45,723 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | +1 | |||
| Lokaal Limburg | 20,128 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0 | |||
| Party for Zeeland | 8,458 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0 | |||
| Party for the North | 8,331 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | −1 | |||
| Provinciaal Belang Fryslân | 6,891 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | +1 | |||
| Sterk Lokaal Drenthe | 7,485 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0 | |||
| Sterk Lokaal Flevoland | 4,518 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | New | |||
| Total | 182,291[h] | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | +2 | |||
| Volt Netherlands | 234,975 | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 2 | — | — | — | 13 | New | |||
| 50PLUS | 178,492 | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 8 | −9 | |||
| Windward Islands People's Movement | 496 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 5 | — | 5 | +1 | |||
| Democratic Party of Sint Eustatius | 582 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | 4 | −1 | |||
| Bonaire Democratic Party | 3,212 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 3 | — | — | 3 | 0 | |||
| Bonaire Patriotic Union | 2,275 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2 | 0 | |||
| Bonaire People's Movement | 1,451 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2 | −2 | |||
| Independent Jaap Kos | 892[i] | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | New | |||
| Movement 21 | 816 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | New | |||
| Others | 225,411[j] | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 0 | −5[k] | |||
| Total | 7,791,163 | 43 | 41 | 43 | 55 | 43 | 47 | 55 | 55 | 47 | 49 | 39 | 55 | 25 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 616 | +27 | |||
| Weight per vote[12] | 117 | 109 | 153 | 388 | 139 | 240 | 478 | 537 | 252 | 283 | 100 | 692 | 20 | 27 | 4 | 7 | ||||||
| Total weighted votes | 5,031 | 4,469 | 6,579 | 21,340 | 5,977 | 11,280 | 26,290 | 29,535 | 11,844 | 13,867 | 3,900 | 38,060 | 500 | 243 | 20 | 35 | 178,970 | +5,295 | ||||
Participating parties
The following parties were due to participate in the 2023 Senate election:[13]
| List | Party | Lead candidate | 2019 result | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forum for Democracy | FvD | Johan Dessing | 15.87% (12 seats) | |
| 2 | People's Party for Freedom and Democracy | VVD | Edith Schippers | 15.11% (12 seats) | |
| 3 | Christian Democratic Appeal | CDA | Theo Bovens | 11.41% (9 seats) | |
| 4 | GroenLinks[a] | GL | Paul Rosenmöller | 11.18% (8 seats) | |
| 5 | Democrats 66 | D66 | Paul van Meenen | 8.75% (7 seats) | |
| 6 | Labour Party[a] | PvdA | Mei Li Vos | 8.62% (6 seats) | |
| 7 | Party for Freedom | PVV | Marjolein Faber | 6.53% (5 seats) | |
| 8 | Socialist Party | SP | Tiny Kox | 5.88% (4 seats) | |
| 9 | Christian Union | CU | Tineke Huizinga | 5.03% (4 seats) | |
| 10 | Party for the Animals | PvdD | Niko Koffeman | 3.78% (3 seats) | |
| 11 | 50PLUS | 50+ | Martin van Rooijen | 3.03% (2 seats) | |
| 12 | Reformed Political Party | SGP | Peter Schalk | 2.60% (2 seats) | |
| 13 | Independent Politics Netherlands | OPNL | Auke van der Goot | 1.31% (1 seat) | |
| 14 | JA21 | JA21 | Annabel Nanninga | — | |
| 15 | Farmer–Citizen Movement | BBB | Ilona Lagas | — | |
| 16 | Volt Netherlands | VOLT | Gaby Perin-Gopie | — | |
Seat projections
The table and graphs below show seat projections for the Senate election. Projections before the provincial and electoral college elections on 15 March are based on opinion polling for the provincial elections. The 15 March projection is based on exit polls of the provincial elections, while the 19 March projection by ANP is based on preliminary results of the provincial and electoral college elections.[14]
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | BBB | GL | PvdA | VVD | CDA | D66 | PVV | PvdD | SP | JA21 | FvD | CU | 50+ | SGP | OPNL | Volt | Denk | Others | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 election | 30 May 2023 | N/A | 16 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | [15] |
| ANP | 19 Mar 2023 | N/A[l] | 17 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | [16] |
| Ipsos | 15 Mar 2023 | N/A[m] | 15 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | [17] |
| Ipsos | 10–14 Mar 2023 | 2,002 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | [18] |
| Peil.nl | 10–11 Mar 2023 | 3,000+ | 12 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | [19] | |
| I&O | 2–6 Mar 2023 | 8,196 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | [20] | |
| Peil.nl | 3–4 Mar 2023 | 3,000+ | 10 | 14 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | [21] | |
| Ipsos | 17–27 Feb 2023 | 5,291 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | [22] |
| Peil.nl | 17–18 Feb 2023 | 3,000+ | 8 | 13 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | [23] | |
| Ipsos | 10–13 Feb 2023 | 1,961 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | [24] |
| Peil.nl | 27–28 Jan 2023 | 3,000+ | 7 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | [25] | |
| Peil.nl | 11–12 Nov 2022 | 3,000+ | 6 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | 6 | [26] | |
| 2019 election | 27 May 2019 | N/A | — | 8 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 4 | — | 12 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — | 0 | 0 | |
Results
As projected, the Farmer–Citizen Movement became the largest party, winning 16 seats (as opposed to the projected 17). Strategic voting of D66 and VVD electors resulted in extra seats for their coalition partners CDA and CU.[27] Moreover, compared to the projections, GroenLinks lost one seat to Volt as GroenLinks elector Debora Fernald voted for Volt.[28]
With the coalition parties winning 24 seats in the Senate, an additional 14 opposition votes are necessary for a 38 vote majority. Support from either BBB (16) or GroenLinks–PvdA (14) suffices.[29]
| Party | Unweighted vote | Weighted vote | Seats | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Deviation | % | Votes | % | ±pp | Quotient | Remainder | Total | +/− | ||
| Farmer–Citizen Movement | 137 | ±0 | 22.24 | 36,976 | 20.66 | New | 15 | 1 | 16 | New | |
| People's Party for Freedom and Democracy | 67 | ±0 | 10.88 | 22,194 | 12.40 | −2.71 | 9 | 1 | 10 | −2 | |
| GroenLinks | 55 | −4 | 8.93 | 17,313 | 9.67 | −1.51 | 7 | 0 | 7 | −1 | |
| Labour Party | 68 | +17 | 11.04 | 15,862 | 8.86 | +0.24 | 6 | 1 | 7 | +1 | |
| Christian Democratic Appeal | 47 | +2 | 7.63 | 13,136 | 7.34 | −4.07 | 5 | 1 | 6 | −3 | |
| Democrats 66 | 37 | +1 | 6.01 | 11,144 | 6.23 | −2.52 | 4 | 1 | 5 | −2 | |
| Party for Freedom | 34 | ±0 | 5.52 | 10,922 | 6.10 | −0.43 | 4 | 0 | 4 | −1 | |
| Party for the Animals | 27 | ±0 | 4.38 | 8,560 | 4.78 | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| JA21 | 24 | ±0 | 3.90 | 8,289 | 4.63 | New | 3 | 0 | 3 | New | |
| Socialist Party | 24 | ±0 | 3.90 | 7,404 | 4.14 | −1.74 | 3 | 0 | 3 | −1 | |
| Christian Union | 23 | ±0 | 3.73 | 6,595 | 3.68 | −1.35 | 2 | 1 | 3 | −1 | |
| Forum for Democracy | 17 | ±0 | 2.76 | 4,866 | 2.72 | −13.15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | −10 | |
| Volt | 14 | +1 | 2.27 | 4,826 | 2.70 | New | 2 | 0 | 2 | New | |
| Reformed Political Party | 17 | +1 | 2.76 | 4,436 | 2.48 | −0.12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 50PLUS | 8 | ±0 | 1.30 | 3,264 | 1.82 | −1.21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | −1 | |
| Independent Politics Netherlands | 17 | ±0 | 2.76 | 3,183 | 1.78 | +0.47 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Total | 616 | +18 | 100.00 | 178,970 | 100.00 | — | 68 | 7 | 75 | 0 | |
| Source: Kiesraad[30] | |||||||||||
Notes
- GroenLinks and the Labour Party took part in the election with separate lists, but intend to form a joint Senate group.[1]
- Includes 3 out of 6 members of the GroenLinks–PvdA group in the Provincial Council of Zeeland.
- Does not include votes cast for the GroenLinks–PvdA joint list in Zeeland.
- Includes votes cast for the GroenLinks–PvdA joint list in Zeeland.
- Includes 1 member of the ChristenUnie–SGP group in the Provincial Council of North Brabant.
- Does not include votes cast for the Christian Union – Reformed Political Party joint list in North Brabant.
- Includes votes cast for the Christian Union – Reformed Political Party joint list in North Brabant.
- Includes votes cast for all OPNL parties, even those which did not obtain any electors, as well as for the Party for the North, which joined the OPNL alliance after the Provincial elections but before the Senate elections.
- Represents only votes cast for the Jaap Kos list in the Bonaire electoral college; does not include votes cast for the Eelco Fiole list in the expatriates' electoral college.
- Represents votes cast for all parties and lists which did not obtain any electors, other than OPNL member parties.
- 4 from DENK and 1 from the Saba Labour Party.
- Based on preliminary results of the provincial and electoral college elections, with 99% of votes counted.
- Based on exit polls of the provincial elections.