2024 United States presidential election in Alaska
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Alaska took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Alaska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Alaska has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1] This was the first presidential election following the state's adoption of Measure 2, which institutes ranked-choice voting for all statewide general elections.[2]
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November 5, 2024
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Since becoming a state in 1959, Alaska briefly underwent a competitive streak in the 1960s before becoming a staunchly Republican state in the 1970s. Alaska has not backed a Democratic presidential candidate since it backed Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964—also the only time it did so—amidst a 44-state national landslide following the assassination of John F. Kennedy the previous year. By extension, the state has not been decided by single-digits since 1992.
In the run-up to the election, Alaska was considered a moderately red state, and was widely expected to back the Republican nominee, former president Donald Trump. Come Election Day, Trump won Alaska for the third time in a row, this time by a 13.1-point margin of victory. He received 54.5% of the statewide vote to Vice President Kamala Harris's 41.4%. His performance was an improvement from his 10.2-point margin in 2020 against Joe Biden, though still lower than his 14.7-point margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Trump managed to flip three county-equivalent jurisdictions that Biden had carried in 2020, with those being the boroughs of Northwest Arctic and Lake and Peninsula, and the census area of Dillingham. Harris, meanwhile, narrowly held the city-borough of Anchorage, which Biden narrowly flipped in 2020 for the first time since 1964, and also held her own decently well in the southeast panhandle of the state. Trump also won over 80% of the vote in the census area of Southeast Fairbanks, marking the first time ever that a Republican presidential candidate won over 80% of the vote in any Alaska borough or census area, and the first time any presidential candidate did so since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.[citation needed]
Primary elections
Republican caucus
The Alaska Republican caucuses were held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 9,243 | 87.58% | 29 | 29 | |
| Nikki Haley | 1,266 | 12.00% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 45 | 0.43% | |||
| Total: | 10,554 | 100.00% | 29 | 29 | |
Democratic caucus
The Alaska Democratic caucus was held on April 13, 2024. Joe Biden was the only person on the ballot and won the caucus via voice vote with 15 pledged delegates.[4][5]
General election
Candidates
The following candidates qualified for the general election:[7]
- Kamala Harris / Tim Walz — Democratic
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan — Independent[a]
- Chase Oliver / Mike ter Maat — Libertarian
- Peter Sonski / Lauren Onak — American Solidarity Party
- Jill Stein / Butch Ware — Independent (national Green nominee)[b]
- Randall Terry / Stephen Broden — Constitution
- Donald Trump / JD Vance — Republican
- Cornel West / Melina Abdullah — Aurora
Voters did not have the option to write in candidates for president and vice president. This was the first presidential election in Alaska to use ranked choice (instant runoff) voting.[8]
Independent candidate Cornel West appeared on the ballot as the nominee of the Aurora Party, a party that only exists in Alaska and only has ballot access for presidential elections.[9]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Solid R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe R | June 13, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[13] | Safe R | August 26, 2024 |
| CNalysis[14] | Very Likely R | September 15, 2024 |
| CNN[15] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[16] | Safe R | November 3, 2024 |
| 538[17] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
| NBC News[18] | Safe R | October 6, 2024 |
| YouGov[19] | Solid R | November 1, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[20] | Likely R | November 1, 2024 |
Polling
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[21] | October 20–22, 2024 | 1,703 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 55% | 45% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[22] | October 8–9, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[23][A] | August 30 – September 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 53% | 43% | 4% |
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[21] | October 20–22, 2024 | 1,703 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 51% | 43% | 7% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[22] | October 8–9, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 43% | 7% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[24] | September 27–29, 2024 | 1,182 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 52% | 43% | 6% | – |
| Alaska Survey Research[25] | September 11–12, 2024 | 1,254 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 5% | 6% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden withdraws from the race. | ||||||
| John Zogby Strategies[26][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 248 (LV) | – | 50% | 43% | 7% |
| Data for Progress (D)[27] | February 23 – March 2, 2024 | 1,120 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 53% | 41% | 6% |
| Alaska Survey Research[28] | October 13–18, 2023 | 1,375 (LV) | – | 45% | 37% | 19% |
| Alaska Survey Research[29] | July 18–21, 2023 | 1,336 (LV) | – | 43% | 36% | 21% |
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[26][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 248 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[26][B] | April 13–21, 2024 | 248 (LV) | – | 50% | 37% | 13% |
Electoral slates
The following individuals were nominated as presidential electors:[30]
| Kamala Harris and Tim Walz Democratic Party |
Donald Trump and JD Vance Republican Party |
Chase Oliver and Mike ter Maat Libertarian Party |
Peter Sonski and Lauren Onak American Solidarity |
Cornel West and Melina Abdullah Aurora Party |
Randall Terry and Stephen Broden Constitution Party |
Jill Stein and Butch Ware Independent[b] |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan Independent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Results
| Party | Candidate | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±% | |||
| Republican | Donald Trump JD Vance |
184,458 | 54.54% | +1.71% | |
| Democratic | Kamala Harris Tim Walz |
140,026 | 41.41% | -1.36% | |
| Independent | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn) |
5,670 | 1.68% | N/A | |
| Libertarian | Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat |
3,040 | 0.90% | -2.38% | |
| Independent | Jill Stein[b] Butch Ware |
2,342 | 0.69% | N/A | |
| Aurora | Cornel West Melina Abdullah |
1,127 | 0.33% | N/A | |
| Constitution | Randall Terry Stephen Broden |
812 | 0.24% | -0.07% | |
| American Solidarity | Peter Sonski Lauren Onak |
702 | 0.21% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 338,177 | 100.00% | |||
By State House district
Unlike every other U.S. state, Alaska is not divided into counties or parishes. Rather, it is administratively divided into 20 boroughs: 19 organized and 1 unorganized, which act as county equivalents. The Unorganized Borough lacks a borough government structure and itself is divided into eleven census areas.[32] Contrary to election results in most states, official results by borough are not available – rather, they are estimates based on precinct-level data.[33] However, the Alaska Division of Elections does release official results by State House district, which are listed in the table below. Trump won 24 districts to Harris's 16.
| State House District | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
All Others | Margin | Total votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| 1 | 4,861 | 56.6% | 3,367 | 39.2% | 356 | 4.2% | 1,494 | 17.4% | 8,584 |
| 2 | 4,534 | 47.4% | 4,571 | 47.8% | 458 | 4.9% | 37 | 0.1% | 9,563 |
| 3 | 4,496 | 40.5% | 6,130 | 55.2% | 481 | 4.4% | 1,634 | 14.7% | 11,107 |
| 4 | 2,691 | 29.0% | 6,161 | 66.5% | 418 | 4.5% | 3,470 | 37.5% | 9,270 |
| 5 | 4,351 | 54.3% | 3,328 | 41.5% | 259 | 4.2% | 1,023 | 13.8% | 7,938 |
| 6 | 6,705 | 55.9% | 4,773 | 39.8% | 522 | 4.3% | 1,932 | 16.1% | 12,000 |
| 7 | 6,777 | 70.5% | 2,513 | 26.2% | 319 | 2.6% | 4,264 | 44.3% | 9,609 |
| 8 | 7,950 | 73.6% | 2,576 | 23.8% | 279 | 2.6% | 5,374 | 49.8% | 10,805 |
| 9 | 5,581 | 47.2% | 5,849 | 49.4% | 406 | 3.5% | 268 | 2.2% | 11,836 |
| 10 | 4,357 | 49.7% | 4,070 | 46.4% | 336 | 3.9% | 287 | 3.3% | 8,763 |
| 11 | 4,864 | 49.4% | 4,633 | 47.1% | 343 | 3.5% | 231 | 2.3% | 9,840 |
| 12 | 4,059 | 47.7% | 4,169 | 49.0% | 287 | 3.3% | 110 | 1.3% | 8,515 |
| 13 | 3,589 | 47.4% | 3,682 | 48.6% | 306 | 4.0% | 93 | 1.2% | 7,577 |
| 14 | 2,768 | 37.3% | 4,346 | 58.5% | 312 | 4.2% | 1,578 | 21.2% | 7,426 |
| 15 | 4,594 | 49.4% | 4,364 | 47.0% | 335 | 3.7% | 630 | 2.4% | 9,293 |
| 16 | 3,929 | 40.6% | 4,344 | 55.3% | 396 | 4.1% | 1,415 | 14.7% | 8,669 |
| 17 | 2,407 | 31.2% | 4,990 | 64.7% | 321 | 4.1% | 2,583 | 33.5% | 7,718 |
| 18 | 2,686 | 55.8% | 1,928 | 40.0% | 202 | 4.1% | 758 | 15.8% | 4,816 |
| 19 | 1,971 | 39.2% | 2,825 | 56.2% | 229 | 4.6% | 854 | 17.0% | 5,025 |
| 20 | 3,041 | 41.8% | 3,924 | 54.0% | 302 | 4.2% | 883 | 12.2% | 7,267 |
| 21 | 3,984 | 44.1% | 4,711 | 52.1% | 348 | 3.9% | 727 | 8.0% | 9,043 |
| 22 | 2,594 | 47.5% | 2,660 | 48.7% | 209 | 3.8% | 66 | 1.2% | 5,463 |
| 23 | 6,101 | 57.1% | 4,116 | 38.5% | 468 | 4.4% | 1,985 | 18.6% | 10,685 |
| 24 | 6,482 | 64.1% | 3,234 | 32.0% | 402 | 4.0% | 3,248 | 32.1% | 10,118 |
| 25 | 6,891 | 65.9% | 3,172 | 30.3% | 397 | 3.9% | 3,719 | 35.6% | 10,460 |
| 26 | 7,143 | 75.6% | 2,013 | 21.3% | 292 | 3.0% | 5,130 | 54.3% | 9,448 |
| 27 | 6,785 | 76.6% | 1,807 | 20.4% | 268 | 3.0% | 4,978 | 56.2% | 8,860 |
| 28 | 6,713 | 72.3% | 2,213 | 23.8% | 353 | 3.7% | 4,500 | 49.5% | 9,279 |
| 29 | 7,418 | 70.6% | 2,708 | 25.8% | 374 | 3.6% | 4,710 | 44.8% | 10,500 |
| 30 | 7,312 | 70.9% | 2,701 | 26.2% | 293 | 2.8% | 4,611 | 44.7% | 10,306 |
| 31 | 3,475 | 49.6% | 3,240 | 46.3% | 288 | 4.1% | 235 | 3.3% | 7,003 |
| 32 | 3,742 | 63.8% | 1,883 | 32.1% | 239 | 4.2% | 1,859 | 31.7% | 5,864 |
| 33 | 6,548 | 73.9% | 2,016 | 22.8% | 295 | 3.4% | 4,532 | 51.1% | 8,859 |
| 34 | 5,836 | 58.3% | 3,759 | 37.5% | 417 | 4.2% | 2,077 | 20.8% | 10,012 |
| 35 | 4,395 | 45.2% | 4,885 | 50.2% | 452 | 4.5% | 490 | 5.0% | 9,732 |
| 36 | 5,633 | 58.7% | 3,538 | 36.9% | 427 | 4.6% | 2,095 | 21.8% | 9,598 |
| 37 | 2,208 | 50.8% | 1,921 | 44.2% | 221 | 5.1% | 297 | 6.6% | 4,350 |
| 38 | 1,558 | 39.0% | 2,028 | 50.8% | 408 | 10.2% | 470 | 11.8% | 3,994 |
| 39 | 1,690 | 40.2% | 2,180 | 51.8% | 336 | 8.0% | 490 | 11.6% | 4,206 |
| 40 | 1,688 | 51.3% | 1,362 | 41.4% | 243 | 7.4% | 326 | 9.9% | 3,293 |
| Total | 184,458 | 54.5% | 140,026 | 41.4% | 13,693 | 4.0% | 44,432 | 13.1% | 338,177 |
By borough and census area (estimates)
| Borough / census area | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
All Others | Margin | Total votes | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| Aleutians East Borough | 288 | 66.67% | 125 | 28.94% | 19 | 4.40% | 163 | 37.73% | 432 |
| Aleutians West Census Area | 469 | 48.30% | 474 | 48.82% | 28 | 2.88% | -5 | -0.51% | 971 |
| Anchorage Municipality | 62,925 | 47.35% | 64,781 | 48.74% | 5,193 | 3.91% | -1,856 | -1.40% | 132,899 |
| Bethel Census Area | 1,622 | 37.99% | 2,181 | 51.09% | 466 | 10.92% | -559 | -13.09% | 4,269 |
| Bristol Bay Borough | 254 | 61.65% | 139 | 33.74% | 19 | 4.61% | 115 | 27.91% | 412 |
| Chugach Census Area | 1,807 | 56.70% | 1,246 | 39.10% | 134 | 4.20% | 561 | 17.60% | 3,187 |
| Copper River Census Area | 995 | 69.63% | 359 | 25.12% | 75 | 5.25% | 636 | 44.51% | 1,429 |
| Denali Borough | 754 | 58.40% | 484 | 37.49% | 53 | 4.11% | 270 | 20.91% | 1,291 |
| Dillingham Census Area | 763 | 50.70% | 670 | 44.52% | 72 | 4.78% | 93 | 6.18% | 1,505 |
| Fairbanks North Star Borough | 24,857 | 56.90% | 17,037 | 39.00% | 1,791 | 4.10% | 7,820 | 17.90% | 43,685 |
| Haines Borough | 791 | 44.09% | 908 | 50.61% | 95 | 5.30% | -117 | -6.52% | 1,794 |
| Hoonah-Angoon Census Area | 548 | 36.17% | 876 | 57.82% | 91 | 6.01% | -328 | -21.65% | 1,515 |
| Juneau City and Borough | 5,942 | 35.00% | 10,305 | 60.70% | 730 | 4.30% | -4,363 | -25.70% | 16,977 |
| Kenai Peninsula Borough | 21,861 | 65.50% | 10,347 | 31.00% | 1,168 | 3.50% | 11,514 | 34.50% | 33,376 |
| Ketchikan Gateway Borough | 3,738 | 57.50% | 2,496 | 38.39% | 267 | 4.11% | 1,242 | 19.10% | 6,501 |
| Kodiak Island Borough | 3,547 | 56.61% | 2,469 | 39.40% | 250 | 3.99% | 1,078 | 17.20% | 6,266 |
| Kusilvak Census Area | 579 | 36.88% | 820 | 52.23% | 171 | 10.89% | -241 | -15.35% | 1,570 |
| Lake and Peninsula Borough | 230 | 52.04% | 175 | 39.59% | 37 | 8.37% | 55 | 12.44% | 442 |
| Matanuska-Susitna Borough | 40,140 | 72.50% | 13,343 | 24.10% | 1,882 | 3.40% | 26,797 | 48.40% | 55,365 |
| Nome Census Area | 1,167 | 41.78% | 1,424 | 50.98% | 202 | 7.23% | -257 | -9.20% | 2,793 |
| North Slope Borough | 939 | 54.28% | 690 | 39.88% | 101 | 5.84% | 249 | 14.39% | 1,730 |
| Northwest Arctic Borough | 713 | 47.50% | 648 | 43.17% | 140 | 9.33% | 65 | 4.33% | 1,501 |
| Petersburg Borough | 970 | 57.13% | 640 | 37.69% | 88 | 5.18% | 330 | 19.43% | 1,698 |
| Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area | 1,735 | 49.70% | 1,588 | 45.49% | 168 | 4.81% | 147 | 4.21% | 3,491 |
| Sitka City and Borough | 1,659 | 42.92% | 2,057 | 53.22% | 149 | 3.86% | -398 | -10.30% | 3,865 |
| Skagway Municipality | 265 | 25.63% | 717 | 69.34% | 52 | 5.03% | -452 | -43.71% | 1,034 |
| Southeast Fairbanks Census Area | 2,846 | 81.90% | 528 | 15.19% | 101 | 2.91% | 2,318 | 66.71% | 3,475 |
| Wrangell City and Borough | 745 | 65.58% | 359 | 31.60% | 32 | 2.82% | 386 | 33.98% | 1,136 |
| Yakutat City and Borough | 179 | 38.00% | 271 | 57.54% | 21 | 4.46% | -92 | -19.53% | 471 |
| Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area | 851 | 35.80% | 1,386 | 58.31% | 140 | 5.89% | -535 | -22.51% | 2,377 |
Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Dillingham Census Area (largest city: Dillingham)
- Lake and Peninsula Borough (largest city: Port Alsworth)
- Northwest Arctic Borough (largest city: Kotzebue)
By congressional district
Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, an at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | Trump | Harris | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| At-large | 54.54% | 41.41% | Mary Peltola |
| Nick Begich III |
Analysis
Since Alaska started voting in presidential elections in 1960, the only time its electoral votes have not gone to the Republican nominee was when incumbent Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in a landslide in 1964.[34] Alaska is the only Republican-leaning state on the West Coast of the United States.[35] In 2024 Donald Trump carried Alaska by 13 percentage points, similar to Mitt Romney's 14-point margin in 2012.
Compared to his 2020 electoral performance, in which he carried the state by 10 percentage points, Trump improved in virtually all of the state, particularly areas in the north and west with large Alaska Native populations. Harris managed to narrowly retain Anchorage for the Democrats; Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without winning the city since Alaskan statehood.[36] Key to Trump's victory in the state was landslide margins to his favor in the Kenai Peninsula and Matanuska-Susitna Valley. He even managed to obtain over 80% of the vote in the sparsely populated Southeast Fairbanks Census Area. Harris's best area was Juneau, the state capital.[37] This was the first election since 2008 in which Republicans carried a majority of boroughs and census areas.
See also
Notes
- The national Green Party nominated Stein and Ware for their presidential ticket. The Green Party of Alaska, a separate entity which was decertified from the national Green Party in 2021, nominated Jasmine Sherman with Tanda BluBear as her running mate. Stein qualified for the ballot by petition and was listed without party affiliation, while Sherman did not make the ballot.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Partisan clients
- Poll sponsored by Nick Begich's campaign for U.S. House and the National Republican Congressional Committee
- Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign