2014 Arizona gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Arizona, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
 | |||||||||||||||||
November 4, 2014
| |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 47.52%  8.13pp [1] | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
   Ducey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% DuVal: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
Incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer was term-limited and could not run for a second consecutive full term in office. After a competitive six-candidate primary, Republicans nominated Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey. Democrat Fred DuVal, the former chair of the Arizona Board of Regents, won his party's nomination unopposed. Ducey won the election with 53% of the vote.
Background
Democratic governor Janet Napolitano resigned on January 21, 2009, to be sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor on the same day. She was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Democrat Terry Goddard, the Arizona Attorney General, by 54% to 42%.
Brewer was term-limited in 2014, despite only serving one full term. This is because Arizona state law limits office holders to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they serve full or partial terms. In November 2012, Brewer declared she was looking into what she called "ambiguity" in Arizona's term-limit law to seek a third term.[2] In February 2014, Brewer reiterated that she was considering running for re-election,[3] but on March 12, 2014, she announced that she would not attempt to seek another term in office, which would have required what The Arizona Republic called a "long-shot court challenge".[4]
Republican primary
The Republican primary campaign was widely characterised as being "bitter" and "nasty"[5][6][7][8] and the $16.2 million spent by the six Republican candidates means that the 2014 election has already broken the record for most expensive gubernatorial race in state history, exceeding the 2002 election in which $9.2 million was spent during the primary and general election campaigns combined.[9]
Candidates
Declared
- Ken Bennett, Secretary of State of Arizona[10]
- Doug Ducey, State Treasurer of Arizona[11][12]
- Christine Jones, former executive vice president, General Counsel and corporate secretary for Go Daddy[13]
- Frank Riggs, former U.S. representative from California and candidate for the U.S. Senate from California in 1998[14]
- Scott Smith, Mayor of Mesa[15]
- Andrew Thomas, former county attorney of Maricopa County, disbarred lawyer, and candidate for Arizona Attorney General in 2010[16]
Withdrew
- Hugh Hallman, former mayor of Tempe (ran for state treasurer and lost)[17]
- Al Melvin, state senator[18][19]
- John Molina, OB/GYN and former CEO of Phoenix Indian Medical Center[20][21]
Declined
- Joe Arpaio, Sheriff of Maricopa County[22][23]
- Jan Brewer, incumbent governor[4]
- Brenda Burns, Corporation Commissioner[24]
- Wil Cardon, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 (ran for Secretary of State and lost)[25]
- Tom Horne, Attorney General of Arizona (ran for re-election and lost)[26][27][28]
- Martha McSally, retired United States Air Force colonel and nominee for Arizona's 2nd congressional district in 2012 (ran for AZ-02 and won)[29][30]
- Steve Pierce, state senator[26]
- Steven Seagal, actor and reserve deputy sheriff[31][32]
Endorsements
Doug Ducey
Individuals
- Joe Arpaio, Sheriff of Maricopa County (1993-2017)[33]
- Steve Chucri, Maricopa County Supervisor and president/CEO of the Arizona Restaurant Association[34]
- Jerry Colangelo, businessman and former owner of the Phoenix Suns and Arizona Diamondbacks[35]
- Sal DiCiccio, Phoenix City Councilman (2009-2023)[36]
- Trent Franks, U.S. representative of Arizona's 8th congressional district (2003-2017)[36]
- Barry Goldwater, Jr., former U.S. representative of California's 20th congressional district (1969-1983)[37]
- Hugh Hewitt, former Deputy Director of the OPM (1988-1989), talk radio host (1991-present)[38]
- Jon Kyl, former U.S. senator from Arizona (1995-2013) and former U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (1987-1995)[12]
- Bill Montgomery, Maricopa County Attorney (2010-2019)[12]
- John Shadegg, former U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district (1995-2011)[12]
- Fife Symington, 19th Governor of Arizona (1991-1997)[39]
Organizations
Frank Riggs
Individuals
- Russell Pearce, former president of the Arizona Senate (2011) from the 18th district (2008-2011)[42]
- Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania (1995-2007) and candidate for president in 2012[43]
Organizations
- Arizonans Against Common Core[44]
Scott Smith
Individuals
- Jan Brewer, incumbent governor[45]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ken Bennett |
Doug Ducey |
Christine Jones |
Al Melvin |
John Molina |
Frank Riggs |
Scott Smith |
Andrew Thomas |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magellan Strategies[46] | August 17–21, 2014 | 1,281 | ± 2.74% | 12% | 32% | 18% | — | — | 2% | 21% | 8% | 7% |
| Harper Polling[47] | August 19–20, 2014 | 812 | ± 3.44% | 14% | 32% | 16% | — | — | 2% | 19% | 7% | 10% |
| Remington[48] | August 17–19, 2014 | 502 | ± 4.37% | 10% | 33% | 18% | — | — | 1% | 22% | 11% | 5% |
| Magellan Strategies[49] | August 15–18, 2014 | 1,322 | ± ? | 12% | 31% | 17% | — | — | 3% | 22% | 8% | 7% |
| Magellan Strategies[50] | August 12–15, 2014 | 1,300 | ± ? | 10% | 31% | 16% | — | — | 3% | 23% | 7% | 10% |
| Magellan Strategies[51] | August 5–7, 2014 | 1,289 | ± 2.73% | 11% | 29% | 13% | — | — | 4% | 22% | 9% | 12% |
| Magellan Strategies[52] | July 28–31, 2014 | 1,644 | ± ? | 12% | 23% | 13% | — | — | 5% | 21% | 10% | 16% |
| Undisclosed[53] | Late July 2014 | ? | ± ? | 10% | 23% | 20% | — | — | 2% | 15% | 9% | 21% |
| Harper Polling[54] | July 16–17, 2014 | 885 | ± 3.29% | 12% | 23% | 21% | — | — | 1% | 13% | 7% | 22% |
| Behavior Research Center[55] | July 10–17, 2014 | 459 | ± 4.7% | 10% | 13% | 17% | — | — | 2% | 8% | 0% | 50% |
| Gravis Marketing[56] | July 14, 2014 | 691 | ± 4% | 7% | 28% | 19% | — | — | 1% | 14% | 8% | 24% |
| Highground[57] | July 10–12, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 3.5% | 17.3% | 15.3% | — | — | 1.5% | 9.8% | 3% | 49.8% |
| Magellan Strategies[58] | July 9–10, 2014 | 593 | ± 4.02% | 11% | 26% | 22% | — | — | 2% | 14% | 6% | 19% |
| Harper Polling[59] | June 25–26, 2014 | 791 | ± 3.48% | 12% | 33% | 15% | — | — | 2% | 14% | 3% | 22% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[60] | June 10, 2014 | 400 | ± 3.48% | 8% | 22.8% | 6.2% | — | — | — | 6.5% | — | 56.5% |
| Magellan Strategies[61] | June 3–4, 2014 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 12% | 28% | 12% | 2% | — | 2% | 16% | 5% | 23% |
| Magellan Strategies[62] | May 13–14, 2014 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 12.7% | 27.3% | 11.9% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 11.5% | 5.6% | 28.8% |
| Undisclosed[63] | April 29, 2014 | 1,367 | ± 3.5% | 7% | 4% | 10% | — | — | — | 9% | 5% | 65% |
| Magellan Strategies[64] | April 8–9, 2014 | ? | ± ? | 15% | 9% | 14% | — | — | 1% | 6% | 6% | 45% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | Feb. 28–Mar. 2, 2014 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 20% | 6% | 16% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 12% | 9% | 34% |
| Behavior Research Center[66] | January 16–26, 2014 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 6% | 2% | 8% | 1% | — | — | 7% | 7% | 69% |
| Susquehanna[67] | Nov. 27–Dec. 4 2013 | 245 | ± ? | 20% | 8% | 4% | 2% | — | — | 6% | 4% | 56% |
Debate
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||||||
| Ken Bennett | Doug Ducey | Christine Jones | Frank Riggs | Scott Smith | Andrew Thomas | |||||
| 1 | Jul. 20, 2014 | Arizona PBS | Ted Simons | PBS | P | P | P | P | P | P |
Results
Ducey – 50–60%
Ducey – 40–50%
Ducey – 30–40%
Jones – 30–40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Doug Ducey | 200,607 | 37.05 | |
| Republican | Scott Smith | 119,107 | 22.00 | |
| Republican | Christine Jones | 89,922 | 16.61 | |
| Republican | Ken Bennett | 62,010 | 11.45 | |
| Republican | Andrew Thomas | 43,822 | 8.09 | |
| Republican | Frank Riggs | 24,168 | 4.46 | |
| Republican | Write-in | 1,804 | 0.03 | |
| Total votes | 541,440 | 100 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Fred DuVal, former chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents[69]
Withdrew
Declined
- Chad Campbell, Minority Leader of the Arizona House of Representatives[71]
- Richard Carmona, former Surgeon General and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012[72]
- Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe[73][74]
- Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General, candidate for governor in 1994 and nominee for governor in 1990 and 2010 (ran for Secretary of State and lost)[75][76]
- Marco A. López Jr., former chief of staff for the U.S. Customs and Border Protection and former mayor of Nogales[77]
- Janet Napolitano, president of the University of California, former secretary of the Department of Homeland Security and former governor of Arizona[78]
- Felecia Rotellini, attorney and nominee for Arizona Attorney General in 2010 (ran for Attorney General and lost)[79]
- Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix[26][80]
Endorsements
Fred DuVal
- Bruce Babbitt, former governor of Arizona and former United States Secretary of the Interior[81]
- Raúl Héctor Castro, former governor of Arizona and former United States Ambassador to El Salvador, Bolivia and Argentina[81]
- Sam Coppersmith, former U.S. representative and former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party[82]
- Karan English, former U.S. representative[82]
- Gabby Giffords, former U.S. representative[83]
- Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe[84]
- Phil Gordon, former mayor of Phoenix[84]
- Raúl Grijalva, U.S. representative[85]
- Mark Kelly, astronaut[83]
- Harry Mitchell, former U.S. representative, former chair of the Arizona Democratic Party and former mayor of Tempe[82]
- Rose Mofford, former governor of Arizona[81]
- Ed Pastor, U.S. representative[86]
- Jim Pederson, businessman, former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2006[87]
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ron Cavanaugh |
Fred DuVal |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Behavior Research Center[66] | January 16–26, 2014 | ? | ± ? | 12% | 18% | 72% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chad Campbell |
Fred DuVal |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myers Research[88] | May 22–June 13, 2012 | ? | ± ? | 31% | 18% | 51% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Fred DuVal | 271,276 | 97 | |
| Democratic | Write-in | 8,578 | 3 | |
| Total votes | 279,854 | 100 | ||
Third parties
Candidates
Declared
- Brian Bailey (independent write-in candidate), Arizona Army National Guardsman[89][90]
- Cary Dolego (independent), write-in candidate for governor in 2010[89][90]
- Barry Hess (Libertarian Party), perennial candidate[21]
- Joseph James "J." Johnson (unaffiliated write-in candidate), food account manager and brother of Eddie Johnson[90][91]
- John Lewis Mealer (Americans Elect), candidate for the Americans Elect nomination for president in 2012[21]
- Alice Novoa (Republican write-in candidate)[89][90]
- Diana-Elizabeth Ramseys Rasmussen Kennedy (Independent write-in candidate)[89][90]
- Curtis Woolsey (unaffiliated write-in candidate)[89][90]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Barry Hess | 3,979 | 75 | |
| Libertarian | Write-in | 1,345 | 25 | |
| Total votes | 5,324 | 100 | ||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Americans Elect | John Lewis Mealer | 722 | 95 | |
| Americans Elect | Write-in | 38 | 5 | |
| Total votes | 760 | 100 | ||
General election
Debates
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian | Americans Elect |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||||
| Doug Ducey | Fred DuVal | Barry Hess | John Lewis Mealer | |||||
| 1 | Sep. 10, 2014 | Chandler Center for the Arts KPNX |
Brahm Resnik | C-SPAN | P | P | N | N |
| 2 | Sep. 28, 2014 | Arizona PBS | Ted Simons | PBS | P | P | P | P |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[92] | Lean R | November 3, 2014 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[93] | Likely R | November 3, 2014 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[94] | Lean R | November 3, 2014 |
| Real Clear Politics[95] | Lean R | November 3, 2014 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Fred DuVal (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[96] | October 16–23, 2014 | 2,621 | ± 4% | 50% | 40% | 1% | 9% |
| The Polling Company[97] | October 20–22, 2014 | 601 | ± 4% | 42% | 35% | 7%[other 1] | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports[98] | October 14–16, 2014 | 1,056 | ± 3% | 47% | 42% | 3% | 7% |
| Tarrance Group[99] | October 13–16, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 36% | 5%[other 1] | 16% |
| McLaughlin & Associates[100] | October 12–14, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 37% | 36% | 5%[other 2] | 22% |
| Adrian Gray Consulting[101] | October 8–9, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 43% | 35% | 8%[other 3] | 14% |
| Moore Information[102] | October 7–8, 2014 | 400 | ± ≈4.9% | 36% | 39% | 4%[other 4] | 21% |
| The Polling Company[103] | October 6–8, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 46% | 37% | 5%[other 1] | 11% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[104] | September 20–October 1, 2014 | 2,808 | ± 3% | 50% | 39% | 2% | 9% |
| Keating Research[105] | September 17–19, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 39% | 7%[other 1] | 13% |
| Tarrance Group[106] | September 15–17, 2014 | 505 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 38% | 7%[other 5] | 11% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov[107] | August 18–September 2, 2014 | 3,289 | ± 3% | 39% | 38% | 15% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[98] | August 27–28, 2014 | 850 | ± 3% | 40% | 40% | — | 20% |
| Public Policy Polling[108] | August 24–25, 2014 | 588 | ± 4% | 35% | 35% | 12%[other 1] | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[65] | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 35% | 36% | — | 29% |
| Undisclosed[63] | February 2014 | 500 | ± ? | 32% | 32% | 6%[other 1] | 30% |
| Behavior Research Center[66] | January 16–26, 2014 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 21% | 23% | — | 56% |
| Susquehanna[67] | November 27–December 4, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 36% | 33% | — | 31% |
Hypothetical polling
With Bennett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ken Bennett (R) |
Fred DuVal (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[65] | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 37% | 33% | — | 30% |
| Behavior Research Center[66] | January 16–26, 2014 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 26% | 22% | — | 52% |
| Susquehanna[67] | November 27–December 4, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 38% | 33% | — | 28% |
With Jones
With Melvin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Al Melvin (R) |
Fred DuVal (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[65] | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 37% | — | 31% |
With Molina
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Molina (R) |
Fred DuVal (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[65] | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 35% | — | 33% |
With Riggs
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Frank Riggs (R) |
Fred DuVal (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[65] | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 36% | — | 31% |
With Smith
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Scott Smith (R) |
Fred DuVal (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[65] | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 39% | 33% | — | 28% |
| Behavior Research Center[66] | January 16–26, 2014 | 701 | ± 3.8% | 20% | 23% | — | 57% |
With Thomas
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Andrew Thomas (R) |
Fred DuVal (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[65] | February 28–March 2, 2014 | 870 | ± 3.3% | 35% | 40% | — | 25% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Doug Ducey | 805,062 | 53.44 | −1.00 | |
| Democratic | Fred DuVal | 626,921 | 41.62 | −0.81 | |
| Libertarian | Barry Hess | 57,337 | 3.80 | +1.60 | |
| Americans Elect | John Lewis Mealer | 15,432 | 1.02 | N/A | |
| None | J. Johnson (write-in) | 1,520 | 0.10 | N/A | |
| Independent | Brian Bailey (write-in) | 50 | N/A | ||
| Republican | Alice Novoa (write-in) | 43 | N/A | ||
| Independent | Cary Dolego (write-in) | 29 | N/A | ||
| None | Curtis Woolsey (write-in) | 15 | N/A | ||
| Independent | Diane-Elizabeth R.R. Kennedy (write-in) | 7 | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 1,506,416 | 100.00 | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
By county | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
By congressional district
Ducey won six of nine congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[112]
| District | DuVal | Ducey | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 46.0% | 48.87% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
| 2nd | 46.95% | 48.73% | Martha McSally |
| 3rd | 56.31% | 38.77% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 4th | 27.43% | 66.84% | Paul Gosar |
| 5th | 32.64% | 62.83% | Matt Salmon |
| 6th | 37.56% | 58.27% | David Schweikert |
| 7th | 65.18% | 29.29% | Ruben Gallego |
| 8th | 33.64% | 61.2% | Trent Franks |
| 9th | 49.06% | 46.3% | Kyrsten Sinema |