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2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

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The 2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of West Virginia. Republican governor Jim Justice won his first term in office, defeating Democratic Wheeling mayor Glenn Elliott. He succeeded independent incumbent Joe Manchin, who did not seek a third full term.[1]

Quick facts Nominee, Party ...
2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia

 2018
November 5, 2024
2030 
 
Nominee Jim Justice Glenn Elliott
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 514,079 207,548
Percentage 68.75% 27.76%

Justice:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Joe Manchin
Independent

Elected U.S. senator

Jim Justice
Republican

Close

Manchin, a Democrat until his final year in the Senate, announced he would not run for re-election shortly before switching to independent.[2] He endorsed Elliott, who won the Democratic nomination with 45% of the vote against political activist Zach Shrewsbury and businessman Don Blankenship. Justice won the Republican nomination with 62% of the vote against Congressman Alex Mooney.

Due to West Virginia's heavy Republican lean, the absence of Manchin, Justice's personal popularity, and being held concurrently with a presidential race in a state in which Donald Trump was expected to win in a landslide, a Republican pickup for this seat was considered a foregone conclusion in 2024.[3][4][5][6][7] Justice was sworn in as a Senator on January 14, 2025, giving elected Republicans control of both of West Virginia’s Senate seats for the first time since 1931 and giving the state an entirely Republican congressional delegation for the first time since 1923.[a] This was the first time since the 1956 special election that a Republican won West Virginia's Class I Senate Seat.

Background

Manchin saw electoral success through the 2010s, positioning himself as a centrist to conservative Democrat with strong ties to West Virginia,[8] which is now considered a deeply red state at the federal and state levels.[9]

The Republican Party identified this contest as a top priority in the 2024 election cycle.[10] Amongst the Republicans who ran for this seat were Congressman Alex Mooney[11] and Governor Jim Justice.[12]

Due to the state's heavy partisan lean, the narrow margin by which Manchin was re-elected in 2018, and a likely strong Republican presidential performance on the same ballot, Republicans were favored to win this seat even if Manchin sought re-election.[13] After Justice announced his bid for the seat in April 2023, Elections Daily labeled this race as "Safe Republican" due to his strong polling advantage against Manchin.[7] After Manchin announced his retirement, all major outlets rated this seat as an expected easy flip to GOP control. While some Democratic sources hoped that a primary victory by Don Blankenship would spur Manchin to run as an independent, Manchin himself described that notion as a "long, long, long-shot scenario" that ended when Blankenship lost the primary.[14]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Glenn Elliott

U.S. senators

Local officials

Labor Unions

Zach Shrewsbury

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Zachary Shrewsbury (D) $295,678 $238,895 $56,782
Glenn Elliott (D) $125,407 $60,071 $65,335
Don Blankenship (D) $1,000 $0 $1,085
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Elliott
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Shrewsbury
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Blankenship
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Tie
  •   30–40%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Democratic primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Glenn Elliott 46,176 45.40%
Democratic Zach Shrewsbury 36,754 36.14%
Democratic Don Blankenship 18,778 18.46%
Total votes 101,708 100.00%
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Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jim Justice

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Alex Mooney

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Organizations

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of April 24, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Jim Justice (R) $2,956,027 $2,024,749 $931,451
Alex Mooney (R) $3,266,887 $2,629,525 $637,362
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice
Alex
Mooney
Other Undecided
Emerson College[58] May 2–5, 2024 558 (LV) ± 4.1% 60% 30% 10%[c]
Research America[59][A] April 24 – May 1, 2024 407 (LV) ± 4.9% 67% 23% 7% 3%
Osage Research (R)[60][B] April 22–24, 2024 400(LV) ± 4.9% 49% 35% 5% 11%
NMB Research (R)[61] April 20–22, 2024 500(LV) ± 4.38% 60% 24% 16%
Research America[62][A] April 3–9, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 66% 24% 4% 6%
Emerson College[63][C] March 19–21, 2024 735 (LV) ± 3.6% 54% 17% 1% 22%
American Pulse Research
& Polling (R)[64][D]
November 13–14, 2023 414 (LV) ± 4.8% 56% 20% 3%[d] 22%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R)[65][E] September 11–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 62% 23% 15%
Research America[66][A] August 16–26, 2023 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 58% 26% 16%
Orion Strategies[67][F] June 17–20, 2023 651 (LV) ± 6.0% 56% 19% 9% 16%
East Carolina University[68] May 22–23, 2023 796 (RV) ± 3.7% 53% 12% 35%
co/efficient (R)[69] April 24–25, 2023 753 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 17% 38%
Close
Hypothetical polling
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Jim
Justice
Alex
Mooney
Patrick
Morrisey
Undecided
National Public Affairs (R)[70] March 14–17, 2023 360 (LV) ± 5.2% 43% 21% 10% 24%
Tarrance Group (R)[71][G] February 5–7, 2023 609 (LV)[e] ± 4.1% 53% 16% 21% 8%
Close

Results

Results by county:
  Justice
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Mooney
  •   40–50%
  •   60–70%
More information Party, Candidate ...
Republican primary results[28]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jim Justice 138,307 61.84%
Republican Alex Mooney 59,348 26.54%
Republican Bryan Bird 7,001 3.13%
Republican Bryan McKinney 6,573 2.94%
Republican Zane Lawhorn 4,517 2.02%
Republican Janet McNulty 4,404 1.97%
Republican Don Lindsay 3,503 1.57%
Total votes 223,653 100.00%
Close

Independents

Declined

General election

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[72] Solid R (flip) May 17, 2024
Inside Elections[4] Solid R (flip) May 9, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[6] Safe R (flip) April 17, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[5] Safe R (flip) June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[7] Safe R (flip) May 4, 2023
CNalysis[73] Solid R (flip) November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[74] Solid R (flip) August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[75] Safe R (flip) October 23, 2024
538[76] Solid R (flip) October 23, 2024
Close

Post-primary endorsements

Glenn Elliott (D)

U.S. senators

Jim Justice (R)

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024, Candidate ...
Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Glenn Elliott (D) $252,262 $183,127 $69,135
Jim Justice (R) $3,680,408 $2,881,158 $799,423
Source: Federal Election Commission[27]
Close

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Glenn
Elliott (D)
Jim
Justice (R)
Undecided
Research America[79][H] August 21–27, 2024 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 28% 62% 10%[f]
Kaplan Strategies[80] June 4, 2024 464 (RV) ± 4.6% 27% 60% 13%
Close
Hypothetical polling

Joe Manchin vs. Jim Justice

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Jim
Justice (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College[81] October 1–4, 2023 539 (RV) ± 4.2% 28% 41% 31%
Research America[66] August 16–26, 2023 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 38% 51% 11%
East Carolina University[68] May 22–23, 2023 957 (RV) ± 3.7% 32% 54% 1% 13%
co/efficient (R)[69] April 24–25, 2023 974 (LV) ± 3.0% 29% 43% 28%
Tarrance Group (R)[71][G] February 5–7, 2023 609 (LRV) ± 4.1% 42% 52% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[82][D] August 24–26, 2022 762 (RV) ± 3.5% 32% 47% 21%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[83] January 17–20, 2022 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 37% 22%
Close

Joe Manchin vs. Alex Mooney

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Alex
Mooney (R)
Other Undecided
Emerson College[81] October 1–4, 2023 539 (RV) ± 4.2% 37% 31% 31%
Research America[66] August 16–26, 2023 402 (RV) ± 4.9% 45% 41% 14%
East Carolina University[68] May 22–23, 2023 957 (RV) ± 3.7% 40% 41% 1% 18%
co/efficient (R)[69] April 24–25, 2023 974 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% 30% 34%
Tarrance Group (R)[71][G] February 5–7, 2023 609 (LRV) ± 4.1% 55% 40% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[82][D] August 24–26, 2022 762 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 45% 12% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[83] January 17–20, 2022 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 28% 16% 7%
Close

Joe Manchin vs. Patrick Morrisey

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (D)
Patrick
Morrisey (R)
Other Undecided
Tarrance Group (R)[71][G] February 5–7, 2023 609 (LRV) ± 4.1% 52% 42% 6%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[82][D] August 24–26, 2022 762 (RV) ± 3.5% 36% 50% 9% 5%
Triton Polling & Research (R)[83] January 17–20, 2022 783 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 29% 7% 16%
Close

Joe Manchin as an Independent vs. Jim Justice

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Joe
Manchin (I)
Jim
Justice (R)
Undecided
Tarrance Group (R)[84][G] September 24–26, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 49% 8%
Close

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...
2024 United States Senate election in West Virginia[85][86]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Jim Justice 514,079 68.75% +22.49%
Democratic Glenn Elliott 207,548 27.76% −21.81%
Libertarian David Moran 26,075 3.49% −0.68%
Write-in 15 0.00% N/A
Total votes 747,717 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Independent
Close

By county

More information County, Glenn Elliott Democratic ...
County[85] Glenn Elliott
Democratic
Jim Justice
Republican
David Moran
Libertarian
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Barbour 1,069 16.95% 4,963 78.72% 273 4.33% 3,894 61.76% 6,305
Berkeley 16,740 30.49% 35,870 65.34% 2,285 4.16% 19,130 34.85% 54,895
Boone 1,826 22.86% 5,965 74.67% 197 2.47% 4,139 51.82% 7,988
Braxton 1,255 23.99% 3,812 72.86% 165 3.15% 2,557 48.87% 5,232
Brooke 2,684 27.72% 6,857 70.82% 141 1.46% 4,173 43.10% 9,682
Cabell 12,093 34.84% 21,486 61.90% 1,131 3.26% 9,393 27.06% 34,710
Calhoun 484 16.96% 2,293 80.34% 77 2.70% 1,809 63.38% 2,854
Clay 594 18.72% 2,479 78.13% 100 3.15% 1,885 59.41% 3,173
Doddridge 379 13.06% 2,374 81.78% 150 5.17% 1,995 68.72% 2,903
Fayette 4,512 29.65% 10,147 66.69% 557 3.66% 5,635 37.03% 15,216
Gilmer 481 20.81% 1,763 76.29% 67 2.90% 1,282 55.47% 2,311
Grant 547 10.14% 4,647 86.17% 199 3.69% 4,100 76.02% 5,393
Greenbrier 4,515 30.69% 9,676 65.77% 521 3.54% 5,161 35.08% 14,712
Hampshire 1,777 17.36% 8,120 79.31% 341 3.33% 6,343 61.96% 10,238
Hancock 3,277 25.49% 9,334 72.59% 247 1.92% 6,057 47.11% 12,858
Hardy 1,303 20.66% 4,798 76.07% 206 3.27% 3,495 55.41% 6,307
Harrison 7,508 25.85% 20,396 70.21% 1,145 3.94% 12,888 44.37% 29,049
Jackson 2,669 21.14% 9,492 75.17% 466 3.69% 6,823 54.04% 12,627
Jefferson 11,265 39.31% 16,509 57.61% 884 3.08% 5,244 18.30% 28,658
Kanawha 29,195 39.65% 42,331 57.49% 2,103 2.86% 13,136 17.84% 73,629
Lewis 1,239 17.69% 5,467 78.06% 298 4.25% 4,228 60.37% 7,004
Lincoln 1,283 18.22% 5,555 78.87% 205 2.91% 4,272 60.66% 7,043
Logan 1,874 16.98% 8,916 80.79% 246 2.23% 7,042 63.81% 11,036
Marion 7,834 32.22% 15,406 63.36% 1,074 4.42% 7,572 31.14% 24,314
Marshall 4,027 30.61% 8,902 67.68% 225 1.71% 4,875 37.06% 13,154
Mason 2,156 20.73% 7,890 75.85% 356 3.42% 5,734 55.12% 10,402
McDowell 898 17.42% 4,121 79.94% 136 2.64% 3,223 62.52% 5,155
Mercer 4,306 18.66% 18,120 78.51% 653 2.83% 13,814 59.86% 23,079
Mineral 2,207 17.31% 10,157 79.67% 385 3.02% 7,950 62.36% 12,749
Mingo 1,085 13.24% 6,940 84.69% 170 2.07% 5,855 71.45% 8,195
Monongalia 18,272 44.65% 20,874 51.00% 1,780 4.35% 2,602 6.36% 40,926
Monroe 1,235 19.80% 4,804 77.01% 199 3.19% 3,569 57.21% 6,238
Morgan 1,840 20.85% 6,662 75.49% 323 3.66% 4,822 54.64% 8,825
Nicholas 2,006 20.34% 7,538 76.42% 320 3.24% 5,532 56.08% 9,864
Ohio 7,599 40.80% 10,750 57.72% 275 1.48% 3,151 16.92% 18,624
Pendleton 614 18.31% 2,658 79.27% 81 2.42% 2,044 60.96% 3,353
Pleasants 641 19.40% 2,569 77.75% 94 2.85% 1,928 58.35% 3,304
Pocahontas 1,014 26.66% 2,649 69.64% 141 3.71% 1,635 42.98% 3,804
Preston 2,477 17.50% 9,988 70.58% 1,687 11.92% 7,511 53.07% 14,152
Putnam 6,841 25.38% 19,184 71.17% 930 3.45% 12,343 45.79% 26,955
Raleigh 6,970 23.24% 21,796 72.68% 1,225 4.08% 14,826 49.43% 29,991
Randolph 2,881 25.23% 8,107 70.99% 432 3.78% 5,226 45.76% 11,420
Ritchie 547 13.87% 3,278 83.11% 119 3.02% 2,731 69.24% 3,944
Roane 1,190 21.87% 4,100 75.35% 151 2.78% 2,910 53.48% 5,441
Summers 1,267 24.67% 3,708 72.21% 160 3.12% 2,441 47.54% 5,135
Taylor 1,518 21.09% 5,344 74.23% 337 4.68% 3,826 53.15% 7,199
Tucker 849 23.51% 2,544 70.45% 218 6.04% 1,695 46.94% 3,611
Tyler 643 18.10% 2,795 78.67% 115 3.24% 2,152 60.57% 3,553
Upshur 1,879 19.39% 7,437 76.75% 374 3.86% 5,558 57.36% 9,690
Wayne 3,392 22.25% 11,416 74.89% 435 2.85% 8,024 52.64% 15,243
Webster 541 18.40% 2,331 79.26% 69 2.35% 1,790 60.86% 2,941
Wetzel 1,494 24.58% 4,469 73.54% 114 1.88% 2,975 48.96% 6,077
Wirt 419 16.63% 2,001 79.40% 100 3.97% 1,582 62.78% 2,520
Wood 9,381 25.60% 26,084 71.18% 1,178 3.21% 16,703 45.58% 36,643
Wyoming 956 12.96% 6,207 84.13% 215 2.91% 5,251 71.17% 7,378
Totals207,54827.76%514,07968.75%26,0753.49%306,53141.00%747,702
Close

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Justice won both congressional districts.[87]

More information District, Elliott ...
District Elliott Justice Representative
1st 27% 70% Carol Miller
2nd 29% 68% Alex Mooney (118th Congress)
Riley Moore (119th Congress)
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Notes

  1. Republicans held both of West Virginia's Senate seats in 1958 when Republican John Hoblitzell was appointed to continue the term of Democrat Matthew M. Neely before losing his bid to finish Neely's term in a special election the same year.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Zane Lawhorn with 3%; Bryan Bird, Bryan McKinney, and Janet McNulty with 2%; Don Lindsay with 1%
  4. Bryan McKinney with 2%; Zane Lawhorn with 1%
  5. Oversample of 100 likely Republican primary voters
  6. "Someone else" with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews and The Health Plan
  2. Poll sponsored by Mooney's campaign
  3. Poll sponsored by WOWK-TV
  4. Poll sponsored by WMOV
  5. Poll sponsored by Justice's campaign
  6. Poll sponsored by the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce
  7. Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Republican candidates
  8. Poll sponsored by West Virginia MetroNews

References

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