2006 United States Senate election in Michigan
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The 2006 United States Senate election in Michigan was held November 7, 2006. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow won re-election to a second term.
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November 7, 2006
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Stabenow: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Bouchard: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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General election
Candidates
- Mike Bouchard, Oakland County Sheriff (Republican)
- Dennis FitzSimons, retiree (U.S. Taxpayers)
- Leonard Schwartz, attorney and economist (Libertarian)
- David Sole, President of UAW Local 2334 (Green)
- Debbie Stabenow, incumbent U.S. Senator (Democratic)
Campaign
Economic issues took front and center in the campaign, as Michigan's unemployment rate was one of the highest in the nation. In July 2006, unemployment in Michigan stood at approximately 7%, compared with a 4.7% rate nationwide. Pessimism about the state's economic future had left Michigan ranked 49th nationally between 2000 and 2005 in retaining young adults. Since its peak, Detroit had lost over a million people. Bouchard claimed that the incumbent had accomplished nothing, dubbing her "Do-Nothing Debbie."[1] President George W. Bush came to Michigan and raised $1 million for Bouchard.[2]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 15, 2006
- Complete video of debate, October 18, 2006
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[3] | Lean D | November 6, 2006 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[4] | Likely D | November 6, 2006 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[5] | Likely D | November 6, 2006 |
| Real Clear Politics[6] | Likely D | November 6, 2006 |
Polling
| Source | Date | Debbie Stabenow (D) |
Mike Bouchard (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic Vision (R)[7] | November 21, 2005 | 45% | 31% |
| EPIC/MRA[8] | November 28, 2005 | 56% | 36% |
| Rasmussen[9] | December 3, 2005 | 49% | 33% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[10] | December 22, 2005 | 47% | 35% |
| Rasmussen[11] | January 20, 2006 | 56% | 31% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[12] | February 3, 2006 | 49% | 36% |
| Rasmussen[13] | February 15, 2006 | 54% | 33% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[14] | March 15, 2006 | 48% | 37% |
| WSJ/Zogby[15] | March 31, 2006 | 52% | 38% |
| Rasmussen[16] | April 6, 2006 | 51% | 37% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[17] | April 21, 2006 | 48% | 38% |
| Rasmussen[18] | May 5, 2006 | 54% | 34% |
| Mitchell Research[19] | May 1–9, 2006 | 50% | 37% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[20] | May 24, 2006 | 48% | 36% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[21] | June 21, 2006 | 50% | 37% |
| WSJ/Zogby[22] | June 21, 2006 | 49% | 41% |
| Free Press-Local 4[23] | July 16, 2006 | 49% | 29% |
| WSJ/Zogby[24] | July 24, 2006 | 48% | 42% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[25] | July 27, 2006 | 52% | 36% |
| Rasmussen[26] | August 16, 2006 | 49% | 44% |
| EPIC/MRA[27] | August 16, 2006 | 54% | 42% |
| WSJ/Zogby[28] | August 28, 2006 | 49% | 45% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[29] | August 29, 2006 | 49% | 42% |
| Free Press-Local 4[30] | August 28–30, 2006 | 50% | 37% |
| Rasmussen[31] | August 31, 2006 | 51% | 43% |
| WSJ/Zogby[32] | September 11, 2006 | 50% | 44% |
| EPIC-MRA[33] | September 14, 2006 | 54% | 34% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[34] | September 20, 2006 | 51% | 44% |
| WSJ/Zogby[35] | September 28, 2006 | 49% | 42% |
| EPIC-MRA[36] | October 5, 2006 | 48% | 35% |
| SurveyUSA[37] | October 9, 2006 | 53% | 42% |
| Rasmussen[38] | October 9, 2006 | 56% | 39% |
| Free Press-Local 4[39] | October 15, 2006 | 48% | 35% |
| WSJ/Zogby[40] | October 19, 2006 | 48% | 44% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[41] | October 24, 2006 | 48% | 42% |
| Lake Research (D)[42] | October 24, 2006 | 53% | 35% |
| Rasmussen[43] | October 25, 2006 | 55% | 39% |
| Research 2000[44] | October 25, 2006 | 51% | 44% |
| WSJ/Zogby[45] | October 31, 2006 | 49% | 43% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[46] | November 2, 2006 | 49% | 42% |
| Free Press-Local 4[47] | November 5, 2006 | 53% | 34% |
| Mason-Dixon/MSNBC[48] | November 5, 2006 | 53% | 37% |
| Strategic Vision (R)[49] | November 6, 2006 | 50% | 44% |
Results
From a long way out Stabenow looked like she might be vulnerable. President Bush even came to Michigan to campaign for Bouchard, raising over $1,000,000 for him. However Bouchard never won a single poll. By October the Republican Party, started taking resources out of Michigan to focus on closer races, essentially ceding the race to Stabenow. Stabenow would go on to win the election easily, capturing nearly 57% of the vote. Stabenow did well throughout Michigan, but performed better in heavily populated cities like Detroit, Lansing, Ann Arbor, and Kalamazoo. Bouchard did win Grand Rapids, a typical Republican area. He also won in many rural areas around the state. However Bouchard failed to put a dent in Stabenow's lead, largely due to her strong performance in heavily populated areas. Bouchard conceded to Stabenow at 9:58 P.M. EST. The following results are official.[50]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) | 2,151,278 | 56.91% | +7.44% | |
| Republican | Mike Bouchard | 1,559,597 | 41.26% | −6.60% | |
| Libertarian | Leonard Schwartz | 27,012 | 0.72% | 0% | |
| Green | David Sole | 23,890 | 0.63% | −0.27% | |
| Constitution | Dennis FitzSimons | 18,341 | 0.48% | +0.20% | |
| Majority | 591,681 | 15.6% | |||
| Turnout | 3,780,142 | 52.64% | |||
| Democratic hold | Swing | 7% | |||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Alger (largest city: Munising)
- Alpena (largest city: Alpena)
- Arenac (largest city: Standish)
- Benzie (largest city: Frankfort)
- Clare (largest city: Clare)
- Delta (largest city: Escanaba)
- Gladwin (largest city: Gladwin)
- Gratiot (largest city: Alma)
- Iosco (largest city: East Tawas)
- Jackson (largest city: Jackson)
- Leelanau (largest settlement: Greilickville)
- Lenawee (largest city: Adrian)
- Mason (largest city: Ludington)
- Menominee (largest city: Menominee)
- Ogemaw (largest city: West Branch)
- Ontonagon (largest village: Ontonagon)
- Presque Isle (largest city: Rogers City)
- Roscommon (largest settlement: Houghton Lake)
- Schoolcraft (largest city: Manistique)
- St. Clair (largest city: Port Huron)
- Calhoun (largest city: Battle Creek)
- Lake (largest village: Baldwin)
- Manistee (largest city: Manistee)
- Monroe (largest city: Monroe)
- Saginaw (largest city: Saginaw)
- Shiawassee (largest city: Owosso)
- Van Buren (largest city: South Haven)
- Keweenaw (Largest city: Ahmeek)
- Houghton (Largest city: Houghton)
- Mackinac (Largest city: St. Ignace)
- Dickinson (Largest city: Iron Mountain)
- Baraga (Largest city: Baraga)
- Luce (Largest city: Newberry)
- Chippewa (Largest city: Sault Ste. Marie)
- Montmorency (Largest city: Lewiston)
- Cheboygan (Largest city: Cheboygan)
- Crawford (Largest city: Grayling)
- Oscoda (Largest city: Mio)
- Alcona (Largest city: Harrisville)
- Wexford (Largest city: Cadillac)
- Huron (Largest city: Bad Axe)
- Sanilac (Largest city: Sandusky)
- Tuscola (Largest city: Caro)
- Lapeer (Largest city: Lapeer)
- Ionia (largest city: Ionia)
- Montcalm (Largest city: Greenville)
- Midland (Largest city: Midland)
- Cass (Largest city: Dowagiac)
- Branch (Largest city: Coldwater)
- Charlevoix (Largest city: Boyne City)
- Oceana (Largest city: Hart)
- Eaton (largest city: Charlotte)
- Leelanau (largest municipality: Greilickville)
- Isabella (largest city: Mount Pleasant)
- Clinton (largest city: St. Johns)
- Kalamazoo (largest city: kalamazoo)
- Oakland (largest city: Troy)