2022 United States Senate elections in California
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Two 2022 United States Senate elections in California were held concurrently on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of California. There were two ballot items for the same Class 3 seat: a special election to fill the seat for the final weeks of the 117th United States Congress (ending on January 3, 2023), and a general election for a full term (beginning on the same day), starting in the 118th United States Congress.
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November 8, 2022
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Padilla: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Meuser: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | ||||||||||||||||
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Incumbent Democratic Senator Alex Padilla was appointed in 2021 by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy created by Kamala Harris's election to the vice presidency in 2020, and he sought a full term.[1][2] A nonpartisan primary for each of the terms took place on June 7.[3] The top two candidates in each primary, regardless of party, advanced to the special and regular general elections in November. With his advancement out of the primary, Mark P. Meuser (/ˈmɔɪʒər/ MOY-zhər) became the first Republican since 2012 to advance to the general election, as both the 2016 and 2018 Senate elections solely featured Democrats as the top two candidates. This race was a rematch between the two, as both had previously run for the secretary of state in 2018. Padilla won both elections with more than 60% of the vote.[4]
He became the first Latino elected to the U.S. Senate from California, and the first male elected to the Senate from California since Pete Wilson was re-elected in 1988 and the first male elected to the Class 3 Senate seat from California since Alan Cranston was re-elected in 1986.[5] This was the first time since 1988 where both major party final candidates for a Senate seat in California were men and was also the first time where both major party candidates for the Class 3 Senate seat in California were men since 1986.
Candidates
Democratic Party
Advanced to general
- Alex Padilla, incumbent U.S. Senator (2021–present) and former secretary of state of California (2015–2021)[6]
Eliminated in primary
Declined
- Ro Khanna, U.S. Representative for California's 17th congressional district (2017–present) (endorsed Padilla)[9][10]
Republican Party
Advanced to general
Eliminated in primary
- James P. Bradley, businessman, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018, and candidate for California's 33rd congressional district in 2020[7]
- Jon Elist, small business owner[7]
- Myron L. Hall, physician[7]
- Sarah Sun Liew, entrepreneur[7]
- Robert George Lucero Jr., consultant[7]
- Enrique Petris, businessman[7]
- Chuck Smith, retired law enforcement officer[7]
- Carlos Guillermo Tapia, businessman[7]
- Cordie Williams, marine veteran and doctor[7]
- Lijun Zhou, businesswoman (write-in, general election only)[11]
Withdrawn
- Yvonne R. Girard, retired government employee (died)[12]
- Elizabeth Heng, candidate for California's 16th congressional district in 2018 and former U.S. House staffer (ran in the CA-22 special election)[13][14][15]
Green Party
Eliminated in primary
- James "Henk" Conn, educator and candidate for mayor of Long Beach in 2018[7]
- Pamela Elizondo, entrepreneur[7]
Peace and Freedom Party
Eliminated in primary
- John Parker, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 and Workers World nominee for President of the United States in 2004 (running as write-in for special election)[16]
No party preference
Eliminated in primary
- Daphne Bradford, entrepreneur and candidate for president in 2020[7]
- Eleanor Garcia, industrial worker (Socialist Workers Party)[7]
- Don J. Grundmann, chiropractor (Constitution Party)[7]
- Deon D. Jenkins[7]
- Irene Ratliff (write-in, both general and special elections)[11]
- Marc Alexander Roth (write-in, general election only)[11]
- Mark A. Ruzon (write-in, general election only), software engineer (American Solidarity Party)[11]
Primary elections
Endorsements
James P. Bradley (R)
Individuals
- Andrew Wakefield, former physician and anti-vaccine activist[17]
Mark Meuser (R)
Newspapers
Organizations
- California Pro-Life Council[19]
- California Republican Party[20]
- Rebuild California[21]
Alex Padilla (D)
U.S. Senators
- Dianne Feinstein, U.S. Senator from California[22]
- Chuck Schumer, U.S. Senator from New York and Senate Majority Leader[23]
- Elizabeth Warren, U.S. Senator from Massachusetts[22]
Statewide officials
- Rob Bonta, Attorney General of California[24]
- Eleni Kounalakis, Lieutenant Governor of California[22]
- Ricardo Lara, California Insurance Commissioner[22]
- Fiona Ma, California State Treasurer[22]
- Gavin Newsom, Governor of California[22]
- Tony Thurmond, California State Superintendent of Public Instruction[22]
- Shirley Weber, Secretary of State of California[24]
- Betty Yee, State Controller of California[22]
U.S. Representatives
- Pete Aguilar, U.S. Representative for CA-31[23]
- Nanette Barragán, U.S. Representative for CA-44[23]
- Karen Bass, U.S. Representative for CA-37[23]
- Ami Bera, U.S. Representative for CA-07[23]
- Julia Brownley, U.S. Representative for CA-26[23]
- Salud Carbajal, U.S. Representative for CA-24[23]
- Tony Cárdenas, U.S. Representative for CA-27[23]
- Judy Chu, U.S. Representative for CA-29[23]
- Lou Correa, U.S. Representative for CA-46[23]
- Jim Costa, U.S. Representative for CA-16[23]
- Mark DeSaulnier, U.S. Representative for CA-11[23]
- Anna Eshoo, U.S. Representative for CA-18[23]
- John Garamendi, U.S. Representative for CA-03[23]
- Jimmy Gomez, U.S. Representative for CA-34[23]
- Josh Harder, U.S. Representative for CA-10[23]
- Jared Huffman, U.S. Representative for CA-02[23]
- Sara Jacobs, U.S. Representative for CA-53[23]
- Ro Khanna, U.S. Representative for CA-17[10]
- Barbara Lee, U.S. Representative for CA-13[23]
- Mike Levin, U.S. Representative for CA-49[23]
- Ted Lieu, U.S. Representative for CA-33[23]
- Zoe Lofgren, U.S. Representative for CA-19[23]
- Alan Lowenthal, U.S. Representative for CA-47[23]
- Doris Matsui, U.S. Representative for CA-06[23]
- Jerry McNerney, U.S. Representative for CA-09[23]
- Grace Napolitano, U.S. Representative for CA-32[23]
- Jimmy Panetta, U.S. Representative for CA-20[23]
- Nancy Pelosi, U.S. Representative for CA-12 and Speaker of the House[23]
- Scott Peters, U.S. Representative for CA-52[23]
- Katie Porter, U.S. Representative for CA-45[23]
- Lucille Roybal-Allard, U.S. Representative for CA-40[23]
- Raul Ruiz, U.S. Representative for CA-36[23]
- Linda Sánchez, U.S. Representative for CA-38[23]
- Adam Schiff, U.S. Representative for CA-28[23]
- Brad Sherman, U.S. Representative for CA-30[23]
- Jackie Speier, U.S. Representative for CA-14[23]
- Eric Swalwell, U.S. Representative for CA-15[23]
- Mark Takano, U.S. Representative for CA-41[23]
- Mike Thompson, U.S. Representative for CA-05[23]
- Norma Torres, U.S. Representative for CA-35[23]
- Juan Vargas, U.S. Representative for CA-51[23]
- Maxine Waters, U.S. Representative for CA-43[24]
Organizations
- California Teachers Association[25]
- Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee[26]
- Equality California[27]
- NARAL Pro-Choice California[28]
- National Education Association[29]
Newspapers
- The Fresno Bee[30]
- Los Angeles Times[31]
- Marin Independent Journal[32]
- La Opinión[33]
- The Orange County Register[34]
- The San Diego Union-Tribune[35]
- The San Luis Obispo Tribune[36]
Stonewall Democrats clubs
John Parker (P&F)
Organizations
Campaign
Incumbent senator Alex Padilla was appointed to the job in January 2021 following Kamala Harris's election to the office of Vice President of the United States.[43] Following his appointment, Padilla quickly began to focus on his 2022 election campaign, as the fact that he has not been elected to the position means that he has a relatively low profile.[9] Padilla's election strategy focused on advocating for progressive policies and building ties with left-wing organizations that had a poor relationship with California's other Senator, Dianne Feinstein.[9][44] The potential Democratic opponent to Padilla considered most likely to join the race was U.S. Representative Ro Khanna, a staunchly left-wing Democrat who rose to prominence as the co-chair of the Bernie Sanders 2020 presidential campaign, and who had a loyal base of support from California's Asian-American and Pacific Islander communities.[9][10] On August 9, 2021, Khanna announced that he would be endorsing Padilla for election, which was viewed as likely ending any possibility that Padilla would face a serious Democratic opponent.[45] It was noted by the San Francisco Chronicle that it was considered unlikely that Padilla would face any serious Republican opponent, as California's heavily Democratic lean caused potentially strong candidates, such as U.S. Representatives Mike Garcia and Young Kim, to prefer to remain in their positions rather than launch a long-shot Senate run.[46]
In April 2022, billionaire businessman Dan O'Dowd entered the race, launching a $650,000 ad campaign.[8] O'Dowd's goal with this ad buy, and with entering the race in the first place, was to "make computers safe for humanity"[47][48] and draw the attention of the public and politicians to the dangers of Tesla's unfinished Full Self-Driving software being rolled out to 100,000 cars on public roads.[49]
Special election blanket primary
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Daphne Bradford (NPP) |
James Bradley (R) |
Jon Elist (R) |
Myron Hall (R) |
Mark Meuser (R) |
Dan O'Dowd (D) |
Alex Padilla (D) |
Timothy Ursich Jr. (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkeley IGS[50] | May 24–31, 2022 | 3,438 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 1% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 14% | 3% | 44% | 2% | 21% |
| SurveyUSA[51] | May 13–15, 2022 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 1% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 11% | 6% | 40% | 2% | 22% |
Results
Padilla
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Meuser
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
Padilla
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Meuser
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alex Padilla (incumbent) | 3,740,582 | 55.0 | |
| Republican | Mark P. Meuser | 1,503,480 | 22.1 | |
| Republican | James P. Bradley | 472,052 | 6.9 | |
| Republican | Jon Elist | 403,722 | 5.9 | |
| Democratic | Timothy J. Ursich | 226,447 | 3.3 | |
| Democratic | Dan O'Dowd | 191,531 | 2.8 | |
| Republican | Myron L. Hall | 143,038 | 2.1 | |
| No party preference | Daphne Bradford | 112,191 | 1.6 | |
| Peace and Freedom | John Parker (write-in) | 9,951 | 0.1 | |
| No party preference | Irene Ratliff (write-in) | 12 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 6,803,006 | 100.0 | ||
Regular election blanket primary
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
(D) Akinyemi Agbede |
(I) Daphne Bradford |
(R) James Bradley |
(G) James Conn |
(R) Jon Elist |
(G) Pamela Elizondo |
(I) Eleanor Garcia |
(I) Don Grundmann |
(R) Myron Hall |
(I) Deon Jenkins |
(R) Sarah Sun Liew |
(R) Robert Lucero Jr. |
(R) Mark Meuser |
(D) Dan O'Dowd |
(D) Alex Padilla |
(PF) John Parker |
(R) Enrique Petris |
(D) Douglas Pierce |
(D) Obaidul Huq Pirjada |
(R) Chuck Smith |
(R) Carlos Tapia |
(D) Timothy Ursich Jr. |
(R) Cordie Williams |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkeley IGS[50] | May 24–31, 2022 | 3,438 (LV) | ± 2.2% | 1% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 11% | 1% | 42% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 22% |
| SurveyUSA[51] | May 13–15, 2022 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 2% | 0% | 9% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 36% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 24% |
Results
Padilla
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Meuser
- 20–30%
Padilla
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Meuser
- 20–30%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alex Padilla (incumbent) | 3,725,544 | 54.1 | |
| Republican | Mark P. Meuser | 1,028,374 | 14.9 | |
| Republican | Cordie Williams | 474,321 | 6.9 | |
| Republican | Jon Elist | 289,716 | 4.2 | |
| Republican | Chuck Smith | 266,766 | 3.9 | |
| Republican | James P. Bradley | 235,788 | 3.4 | |
| Democratic | Douglas Howard Pierce | 116,771 | 1.7 | |
| Peace and Freedom | John Parker | 105,477 | 1.5 | |
| Republican | Sarah Sun Liew | 76,994 | 1.1 | |
| Democratic | Dan O'Dowd | 74,916 | 1.1 | |
| Democratic | Akinyemi Agbede | 70,971 | 1.0 | |
| Republican | Myron L. Hall | 66,161 | 1.0 | |
| Democratic | Timothy J. Ursich | 58,348 | 0.8 | |
| Republican | Robert George Lucero Jr. | 53,398 | 0.8 | |
| Green | James "Henk" Conn | 35,983 | 0.5 | |
| No party preference | Eleanor Garcia[c] | 34,625 | 0.5 | |
| Republican | Carlos Guillermo Tapia | 33,870 | 0.5 | |
| Green | Pamela Elizondo | 31,981 | 0.5 | |
| Republican | Enrique Petris | 31,883 | 0.5 | |
| Democratic | Obaidul Huq Pirjada | 27,889 | 0.4 | |
| No party preference | Daphne Bradford | 26,900 | 0.4 | |
| No party preference | Don J. Grundmann[d] | 10,181 | 0.1 | |
| No party preference | Deon D. Jenkins | 6,936 | 0.1 | |
| No party preference | Mark A. Ruzon (write-in) | 206 | 0.0 | |
| Republican | Lijun Zhou (write-in) | 58 | 0.0 | |
| No party preference | Irene Ratliff (write-in) | 7 | 0.0 | |
| No party preference | Marc Alexander Roth (write-in) | 1 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 6,884,065 | 100.0 | ||
General elections
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[55] | Solid D | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[56] | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] | Safe D | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[58] | Solid D | April 1, 2022 |
| RCP[59] | Safe D | February 24, 2022 |
| Fox News[60] | Solid D | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[61] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
| 538[62] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
| The Economist[63] | Safe D | September 7, 2022 |
Polling
Special election
Regular election
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Alex Padilla (D) |
Mark Meuser (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co.[64] | November 4–6, 2022 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 60% | 35% | 5% |
| USC[66] | October 30 – November 2, 2022 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 63% | 37% | – |
| ActiVote[67] | July 22 – October 20, 2022 | 208 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 65% | 35% | – |
| SurveyUSA[65] | October 7–10, 2022 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | 11% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alex Padilla (incumbent) | 6,559,308 | 60.89% | ||
| Republican | Mark Meuser | 4,212,450 | 39.11% | ||
| Total votes | 10,771,758 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Alex Padilla (incumbent) | 6,621,621 | 61.06% | ||
| Republican | Mark Meuser | 4,222,029 | 38.94% | ||
| Total votes | 10,843,650 | 100.00% | |||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county
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By congressional district
Padilla won 42 of 52 congressional districts in the special and regular elections, including two that elected Republicans.[71]
See also
Notes
- In January 2021, Padilla was appointed by Governor Gavin Newsom to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Kamala Harris, who had been elected Vice President of the United States.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Garcia is listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" candidate because the Socialist Workers Party did not have ballot access in California at the time the ballot was printed.[53]
- Grundmann is listed on the ballot as a "no party preference" candidate because the Constitution Party did not have ballot access in California at the time the ballot was printed.[54]