2008 United States Senate election in Montana
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The 2008 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Senator Max Baucus won re-election to a sixth term in a landslide, winning more than 72% of the vote and carrying every county in the state, despite Republican John McCain's narrow victory in the state in the concurrent presidential election. Baucus later resigned his seat on February 6, 2014, after the Senate confirmed him to be U.S. ambassador to China, having already announced his intention to retire at the end of term on April 23, 2013. As of 2024, this is the last time Democrats won the Class 2 Senate seat in Montana.
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November 4, 2008
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 County results Baucus: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Background
Montana generally gives its presidential electors to Republican candidates, but historically has elected several prominent Democrats to the United States Senate, including Thomas Walsh, Burton K. Wheeler, Mike Mansfield, and Lee Metcalf. Between 1913 and 2015, only two Republicans served as U.S. Senator from Montana, Zales Ecton and Conrad Burns. In 2004, the state elected Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer, reversing a 16-year trend of electing Republicans to the Governorship. In the 2006 elections, the Republican Party took over the state House of Representatives in Montana, the only pick-up of a state legislature for the Republicans. In 2006 the Democratic candidate for the United States Senate Jon Tester managed to defeat incumbent Republican Senator Conrad Burns and flip the seat into the Democratic column.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Max Baucus, incumbent U.S. Senator
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Max Baucus (incumbent) | 165,050 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 165,050 | 100.00% | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Kirk Bushman, businessman
- Bob Kelleher, attorney and perennial candidate
- Michael Lange, State Representative
- Patty Lovaas, accountant
- Anton Pearson, rancher
- Garnett Shay, engineer
Campaign
All Republican candidates trailed Baucus badly in polls. It was revealed that Garnett Shay had an outstanding warrant for his arrest, preventing him from running an effective campaign.[2]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Bob Kelleher | 26,936 | 36.32% | |
| Republican | Michael Lange | 17,044 | 22.98% | |
| Republican | Kirk Bushman | 15,507 | 20.91% | |
| Republican | Patty Lovaas | 7,632 | 10.29% | |
| Republican | Anton Pearson | 4,257 | 5.74% | |
| Republican | Garnett Shay | 2,788 | 3.76% | |
| Total votes | 74,164 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Max Baucus (D), incumbent U.S. Senator.
- Bob Kelleher (R), attorney and perennial candidate
Campaign
Senator Baucus defeated Kelleher as a Democratic incumbent running in a year that was very successful for his party in general. The U.S. Senate race in Montana was somewhat unusual, in that it was perhaps the only race that year in which the Republican candidate was more liberal than the Democratic one. Kelleher, a perennial candidate and eccentric figure in Montana politics, took many positions that were highly unorthodox by GOP standards, such as favoring more liberal drug control policies, supporting universal healthcare and affirmative action, and favoring fair trade restrictions. He was, at the time, an 85-year-old attorney and perennial candidate who has run for office on several different party tickets. Kelleher was pro-life, advocated a parliamentary system of government for the United States, and supported nationalization of the American oil and gas industry and a single-payer health care system.[3] He received no support from the Montana Republican Party.[4]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Safe D | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[6] | Safe D | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[7] | Safe D | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[8] | Safe D | November 4, 2008 |
Polling
| Poll Source | Dates administered | Max Baucus (D) |
Bob Kelleher (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[9] | September 7, 2008 | 64% | 31% |
| Public Policy Polling[10] | November 2, 2008 | 71% | 26% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Max Baucus (incumbent) | 348,289 | 72.92% | +10.18% | |
| Republican | Bob Kelleher | 129,369 | 27.08% | −4.65% | |
| Total votes | 477,658 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Carter (largest city: Ekalaka)
- Sweet Grass (largest city: Big Timber)