2011 Navarrese regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Navarre
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A regional election was held in Navarre on 22 May 2011 to elect the 8th Parliament of the chartered community. All 50 seats in the Parliament were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
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2.9%
6.4 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
22 May 2011
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All 50 seats in the Parliament of Navarre 26 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 485,386 2.9% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 327,281 (67.4%) 6.4 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The election was the first since 1987 to see the People's Party (PP) fielding a separate list to that of the Navarrese People's Union (UPN), with the latter having served as the PP's sister party in Navarre since their 1991 agreement. The breakup of this alliance followed a dispute in October 2008 over a parliamentary vote in the Congress of Deputies, in which UPN chose not to support a PP's amendment to the 2009 budget of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero's government. Concurrently, incumbent president Miguel Sanz had announced his intention not to run for a fifth term in office, being replaced as UPN leader and candidate by mayor of Pamplona Yolanda Barcina.
The election saw UPN remaining the first political party of Navarre, albeit with a diminished result, scoring 34.5% and 19 seats. The Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) obtained the worst result of its history up until that point, but recovered the second place it had lost in 2007 to Nafarroa Bai (NaBai), which suffered from the abertzale left's legalization by the Constitutional Court of Spain under the Bildu umbrella and an internal split which saw Basque Solidarity (EA) and Assembly (Batzarre) leaving the alliance. Both UPN and the PSN formed a coalition government, electing Barcina as president.
Overview
Under the 1982 Reintegration and Improvement of the Chartered Regime, the Parliament of Navarre was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous chartered community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[2]
Date
The term of the Parliament of Navarre expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. If no snap election was called before the last year of the legislative term, the election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of Navarre (BON), with election day taking place on the fourth Sunday of May four years after the previous election.[3] The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, setting the latest possible date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 22 May 2011.
The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Navarre at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one under this procedure.[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a three-month period from election day, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[5][6]
The election to the Parliament of Navarre was officially called on 29 March 2011 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BON, setting election day for 22 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 15 June.[7]
Electoral system
Voting for the Parliament was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Navarre and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.[8] Amendments earlier in 2011 required non-resident citizens to apply for voting, a system known as "begged" voting (Spanish: Voto rogado).[9][10]
The Parliament of Navarre had a minimum of 40 and a maximum of 60 seats, with electoral provisions fixing its size at 50. All were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the chartered community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a three percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.[11]
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[12]
Outgoing parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.[13][14]
| Groups | Parties | Legislators | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seats | Total | ||||
| Navarrese People's Union Parliamentary Group | UPN | 22 | 22 | ||
| Navarre Yes Parliamentary Group | Aralar | 5 | 12 | ||
| EA | 4 | ||||
| EAJ/PNV | 1 | ||||
| Batzarre | 1 | ||||
| INDEP | 1 | ||||
| Socialists of the Parliament of Navarre Parliamentary Group |
PSN–PSOE | 12 | 12 | ||
| Mixed Group | CDN | 2 | 4 | ||
| IU | 2 | ||||
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in Navarre, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[15] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[16]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 26 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Navarre.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
CDN |  |
 |
 |
Bildu | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 regional election | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 67.4 | 34.5 19 |
15.4 8 |
15.9 9 |
1.4 0 |
5.7 3 |
7.3 4 |
0.7 0 |
13.3 7 |
18.6 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 1] | 14 May 2011 | ? | 79.7 | 30.6 16/17 |
17.0 9/10 |
17.9 9/10 |
3.0 0/1 |
5.2 2/3 |
10.0 5 |
– | 13.2 6 |
11.7 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 2] | 10–12 May 2011 | 400 | ? | 35.3 19/20 |
19.3 10 |
17.8 9/10 |
– | 4.0 2 |
11.4 6 |
– | 5.4 3 |
16.0 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 3][p 4] | 3–10 May 2011 | ? | ? | 30.2 18/19 |
19.7 10/11 |
16.9 8/9 |
– | ? 2/3 |
17.0 9/10 |
– | ? 2 |
10.5 |
| CIES/Diario de Navarra[p 5] | 26 Apr–6 May 2011 | 1,500 | 68.2 | 35.8 19/20 |
17.3 9/10 |
19.3 10/11 |
2.4 0 |
5.1 2 |
8.7 4/5 |
0.8 0 |
9.2 4/5 |
16.5 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 6] | 5 May 2011 | ? | ? | 33.2 18/19 |
21.5 11/12 |
17.5 9/10 |
3.0 0/1 |
5.2 2/3 |
13.8 7/8 |
– | – | 11.7 |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 7][p 8] | 25 Apr 2011 | ? | ? | 31.5 18/20 |
? 10 |
? 9/10 |
– | – | 17.8 9/10 |
– | – | ? |
| Celeste-Tel/Terra[p 9] | 13–20 Apr 2011 | 400 | ? | 33.5 17 |
17.6 10 |
17.8 10 |
– | 5.1 2 |
9.1 5 |
– | 11.8 6 |
15.7 |
| CIS[p 10][p 11] | 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 | 790 | ? | 29.0 16/17 |
20.7 11/12 |
19.3 11 |
2.6 0 |
7.3 4 |
11.3 6 |
1.1 0 |
3.9 0/2 |
8.3 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 12][p 13] | 12–15 Apr 2011 | 400 | ? | 32.7 18 |
22.0 12 |
21.5 11/12 |
– | 4.3 2 |
12.6 6/7 |
– | – | 10.7 |
| Ikerfel/Vocento[p 14][p 15] | 11–13 Apr 2011 | 1,200 | ? | 25.7 14 |
21.1 11 |
21.8 12 |
– | 5.2 2 |
13.2 7 |
– | 7.8 4 |
3.9 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 16][p 17][p 18] | 4–6 Apr 2011 | ? | 75 | 31.6 17 |
15.7 8/9 |
19.9 10/11 |
2.9 0/1 |
4.2 2/3 |
10.1 5 |
– | 14.2 6/7 |
11.7 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 19][p 20] | 23–28 Dec 2010 | 400 | ? | 32.8 18 |
19.6 10/11 |
19.4 10/11 |
– | 3.9 2 |
16.4 9 |
– | – | 13.2 |
| Ikerfel/Parliament of Navarre[p 21][p 22] | 19–26 Oct 2010 | 1,500 | 69.9 | 34.0 17/18 |
24.1 12/13 |
23.8 12/13 |
1.1 0 |
4.0 2 |
11.0 5 |
0.5 0 |
– | 9.9 |
| CIES/UPN[p 23][p 24] | 19 Oct 2010 | ? | ? | ? 18 |
? 12/14 |
? 10/11 |
? 0 |
? 2 |
? 4/5 |
– | ? 0/3 |
? |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 25][p 26] | 24–26 May 2010 | 400 | ? | 26.5 13/14 |
21.5 11/12 |
22.2 11/12 |
– | 4.0 2 |
21.6 11/12 |
– | – | 4.3 |
| CIES/Parliament of Navarre[p 27] | 19–27 Oct 2009 | 1,500 | 64.0 | 34.4 18 |
24.2 13 |
23.5 12 |
2.4 0 |
4.3 2 |
9.2 5 |
1.1 0 |
– | 10.2 |
| UPN[p 28][p 29] | 30 Sep 2009 | ? | ? | ? 16/17 |
? 14 |
? 12 |
? 0 |
? 1/2 |
? 6/7 |
– | – | ? |
| 2009 EP election | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | 42.7 | – | 8.8 (5) |
31.5 (17) |
– | 3.3 (1) |
37.8 (21) |
2.1 (0) |
11.4 (6) |
6.3 |
| CIES/Diario de Navarra[p 30] | 13–19 Nov 2008 | 900 | 68 | 32.8 17 |
24.2 12 |
24.9 13 |
3.1 1 |
4.6 2 |
9.5 5 |
– | – | 7.9 |
| 2008 general election | 9 Mar 2008 | N/a | 72.1 | 39.2 (21) |
18.4 (10) |
34.8 (18) |
– | 3.3 (1) |
[b] | 0.8 (0) |
– | 4.4 |
| 2007 regional election | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 73.8 | 42.2 22 |
23.6 12 |
22.5 12 |
4.4 2 |
4.3 2 |
[b] | – | – | 18.6 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
CDN | |
|
|
Bildu |  |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 regional election[c] | 22 May 2011 | N/a | 23.8 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 1.0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 9.1 | N/a | 30.3 | 12.9 |
| Gizaker/Grupo Noticias[p 1] | 14 May 2011 | ? | 19.9 | 13.1 | 11.5 | – | – | 5.0 | – | 10.2 | – | – | 6.8 |
| CIS[p 10] | 17 Mar–17 Apr 2011 | 790 | 14.1 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 0.4 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 36.3 | 15.2 | 4.2 |
| Ikerfel/Parliament of Navarre[p 21] | 19–26 Oct 2010 | 1,500 | 16.7 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 0.9 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 0.3 | – | 27.1 | 12.7 | 3.0 |
| CIES/Parliament of Navarre[p 27] | 19–27 Oct 2009 | 1,500 | 18.8 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 1.0 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 0.3 | – | 23.9 | 15.3 | 4.6 |
| 2009 EP election[c] | 7 Jun 2009 | N/a | – | 3.8 | 13.5 | – | 1.4 | 16.4 | 0.9 | 5.0 | N/a | 56.4 | 2.9 |
| 2008 general election[c] | 9 Mar 2008 | N/a | 28.6 | 13.5 | 25.2 | – | 2.4 | [b] | 0.6 | – | N/a | 26.7 | 3.4 |
| 2007 regional election[c] | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 30.1 | 16.9 | 16.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | [b] | – | – | N/a | 24.6 | 13.2 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Navarre.
Results
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| Navarrese People's Union (UPN) | 111,474 | 34.48 | −7.70 | 19 | −3 | |
| Socialist Party of Navarre (PSN–PSOE) | 51,238 | 15.85 | −6.64 | 9 | −3 | |
| Navarre Yes 2011 (NaBai 2011) | 49,827 | 15.41 | −8.21 | 8 | −4 | |
| Gather–Basque Solidarity–Alternative (Bildu–EA/AE–EA–Alternatiba) | 42,916 | 13.28 | New | 7 | +7 | |
| People's Party (PP) | 23,551 | 7.29 | New | 4 | +4 | |
| Left (I–E (n))1 | 18,457 | 5.71 | +1.36 | 3 | +1 | |
| Convergence of Democrats of Navarre (CDN) | 4,654 | 1.44 | −2.93 | 0 | −2 | |
| Greens of Navarre (VN–NB) | 4,235 | 1.31 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Navarrese Cannabis Representation (RCN/NOK) | 3,166 | 0.98 | −0.45 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) | 2,212 | 0.68 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Initiative for Navarre (IxN) | 1,332 | 0.41 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Internationalist Solidarity and Self-Management (SAIn) | 1,054 | 0.33 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Navarrese and Spanish Right (DNE) | 977 | 0.30 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 8,161 | 2.52 | +1.14 | |||
| Total | 323,254 | 50 | ±0 | |||
| Valid votes | 323,254 | 98.77 | +4.03 | |||
| Invalid votes | 4,027 | 1.23 | −4.03 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 327,281 | 67.43 | −6.36 | |||
| Abstentions | 158,105 | 32.57 | +6.36 | |||
| Registered voters | 485,386 | |||||
| Sources[13][26][27] | ||||||
Footnotes:
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