2027 Madrilenian regional election
Election in the Spanish region of Madrid
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A regional election will be held in the Community of Madrid on 23 May 2027 to elect the 14th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 143 seats in the Assembly will be up for election. It will be held concurrently with regional elections in at least six other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
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23 May 2027
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All 143 seats in the Assembly of Madrid 72 seats needed for a majority | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Overview
Under the 1983 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Madrid is the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to grant or withdraw confidence from a regional president.[1] The electoral and procedural rules were supplemented by national law provisions.[2]
Date
The term of the Assembly of Madrid expires four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree shall be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM).[3] The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which is 23 May 2027.
The regional president has the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process, no nationwide election is due and some time requirements are met: namely, that dissolution does not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one.[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly shall be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called, which will be held on the first Sunday 54 days after the call.[5] Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances does not alter the date of the chamber's next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.[6]
Electoral system
Voting for the Assembly is based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and with full political rights, provided that they have not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence.[7]
The Assembly of Madrid has one seat per 50,000 inhabitants or fraction above 25,000. All are elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the autonomous community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.[8] As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly would be entitled to 143 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register (as of 1 January 2025).[9]
The law does not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term will be filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[10]
Current parliament
The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the present time.[11]
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allows for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance are required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors need to secure the signature of at least 0.5 percent of the electorate in the Community of Madrid, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list.[12] Amendments in 2024 required a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists through the use of a zipper system.[13]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which will likely contest the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
|
Isabel Díaz Ayuso | Conservatism Christian democracy |
47.3% | 70 |  |
[14] | |
| MM–VQ | List
|
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Mónica García | Progressivism Participatory democracy Green politics |
18.4% | 27 |  |
[15] [16] | |
| PSOE | List |
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Óscar López | Social democracy | 18.2% | 27 | |
[17] [18] | |
| Vox | List
|
 |
José Antonio Fúster | Right-wing populism Ultranationalism National conservatism |
7.3% | 11 | |
[19] | |
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Graphical summary
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 72 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (68 in the 2023 election).
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
 |
  |
 |
 |
SALF | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data10/Okdiario[p 1] | 11–12 Jun 2026 | 1,500 | ? | 50.3 73 |
16.2 23 |
18.4 26 |
9.2 13 |
2.6 0 |
– | – | – | 31.9 |
| GAD3/El Debate[p 2] | 7–14 May 2026 | 1,004 | ? | 48.7 72 |
16.2 23 |
19.6 28 |
8.7 12 |
3.3 0 |
– | – | – | 29.1 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 3] | 24–30 Apr 2026 | 1,391 | ? | 46.7 68/69 |
16.9 24/25 |
20.2 29 |
9.5 13/14 |
4.2 0 |
– | – | – | 26.5 |
| Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 4] | 19 Mar 2026 | ? | ? | ? 73/74 |
? 26/27 |
? 27/28 |
? 16/17 |
? 0 |
– | – | – | ? |
| Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 5] | 11 Nov 2025 | ? | ? | ? 70/71 |
? 21/22 |
? 28/29 |
? 13/14 |
? 0 |
– | – | – | ? |
| Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 6] | 10 Sep 2025 | ? | ? | 48.8 71/72 |
? 21/22 |
? 29/30 |
? 12 |
– | – | – | – | ? |
| NC Report/La Razón[p 7] | 16–31 May 2025 | 500 | ? | 49.9 73 |
? 25 |
? 26 |
? 11 |
– | – | – | – | ? |
| Sigma Dos/Telemadrid[p 8] | 28 May 2025 | ? | ? | ? 73/74 |
? 19/20 |
? 30/31 |
? 11 |
– | – | – | – | ? |
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 9] | 28–30 Apr 2025 | 1,200 | ? | 49.3 72 |
12.6 18 |
21.7 32 |
9.3 13 |
3.6 0 |
0.4 0 |
– | – | 27.6 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 10] | 14–28 Apr 2025 | 1,189 | ? | 49.4 72/73 |
14.8 20/21 |
20.4 29/30 |
8.5 12 |
3.3 0 |
– | – | – | 29.0 |
| SyM Consulting[p 11][p 12] | 22–25 Apr 2025 | 1,100 | 64.5 | 52.7 76 |
15.7 22/23 |
16.0 23 |
9.6 13/14 |
3.4 0 |
0.4 0 |
– | – | 36.7 |
| GAD3/ABC[p 13] | 15–24 Apr 2025 | 1,013 | ? | 47.0 70 |
12.7 18 |
22.4 33 |
9.4 14 |
4.8 0 |
– | – | – | 24.6 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 14] | 28 Oct–27 Nov 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 45.9 66 |
18.9 27 |
18.7 27 |
10.5 15 |
3.9 0 |
0.9 0 |
– | – | 27.0 |
| SyM Consulting[p 15][p 16] | 18–21 Oct 2024 | 1,107 | 65.8 | 44.1 65 |
22.2 32/33 |
17.0 25 |
8.7 12/13 |
5.0 0 |
0.6 0 |
– | – | 21.9 |
| 2024 EP election | 9 Jun 2024 | N/a | 52.5 | 40.7 (62) |
[a] | 28.2 (42) |
10.7 (16) |
4.5 (0) |
1.1 (0) |
5.8 (8) |
5.1 (7) |
12.5 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 17] | 26 Mar–29 Apr 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 44.0 63 |
19.4 27 |
22.9 33 |
8.6 12 |
2.2 0 |
1.3 0 |
– | – | 21.1 |
| Data10/OKDiario[p 18] | 27–29 Mar 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 47.3 69 |
21.2 30 |
17.6 25 |
8.2 11 |
2.9 0 |
0.8 0 |
– | – | 26.1 |
| GAD3/PP[p 19] | 21–27 Mar 2024 | 1,000 | ? | 51.0 74 |
18.7 27 |
17.6 25 |
6.6 9 |
2.7 0 |
– | – | – | 32.3 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 20] | 27 Feb–25 Mar 2024 | 1,500 | ? | 43.2 63 |
19.1 27 |
23.2 33 |
8.9 12 |
1.8 0 |
1.6 0 |
– | – | 20.0 |
| 2023 general election | 23 Jul 2023 | N/a | 69.7 | 40.5 (56) |
[a] | 27.8 (39) |
14.0 (19) |
[a] | – | 15.5 (21) |
– | 12.7 |
| EM-Analytics/Electomanía[p 21] | 28 May–7 Jul 2023 | 1,000 | ? | 46.8 70 |
18.3 27 |
19.1 28 |
7.2 10 |
4.5 0 |
1.6 0 |
– | – | 27.7 |
| 2023 regional election | 28 May 2023 | N/a | 65.5 | 47.3 70 |
18.4 27 |
18.2 27 |
7.3 11 |
4.8 0 |
1.6 0 |
– | – | 28.9 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size |  |
|
|
|
|
|
|
SALF |  |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 9] | 28–30 Apr 2025 | 1,200 | 34.4 | 10.3 | 19.8 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 1.2 | – | – | 10.1 | 7.7 | 14.6 |
| CIS[p 22] | 7–31 Mar 2025 | 1,577 | 37.4 | 7.9 | 23.0 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 0.4 | – | – | 14.3 | 3.9 | 14.4 |
| 2024 EP election[b] | 9 Jun 2024 | N/a | 22.8 | [a] | 15.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 2.8 | N/a | 43.7 | 7.0 |
| 2023 general election[b] | 23 Jul 2023 | N/a | 29.8 | [a] | 20.5 | 10.3 | [a] | – | 11.4 | – | N/a | 25.9 | 9.3 |
| 2023 regional election[b] | 28 May 2023 | N/a | 32.8 | 12.7 | 12.6 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | – | – | N/a | 30.1 | 20.1 |
Preferred President
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayuso PP |
García MM |
Bergerot MM |
López PSOE |
Fúster Vox | ||||||
| SocioMétrica/El Español[p 9] | 28–30 Apr 2025 | 1,200 | 43.3 | 17.2 | – | 14.7 | – | 24.9 | 26.1 | |
| GAD3/ABC[p 23] | 15–24 Apr 2025 | 1,013 | 49.0 | – | 9.0 | 16.0 | 4.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 33.0 |
| CIS[c][p 22] | 7–31 Mar 2025 | 1,577 | 38.5 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 11.3 | 1.8 | 6.9 | 36.2 | 27.2 |
Predicted President
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.
Notes
- Does not include non-resident citizens.
- Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.