Next Dutch general election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
General elections are scheduled to be held in the Netherlands on 15 May 2030 to elect the members of the House of Representatives, but may be held at an earlier date if a snap election is called.[1]
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By May 2030
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All 150 seats in the House of Representatives 76 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
The 2025 Dutch general election resulted in losses for all parties in the Schoof cabinet.[2] Democrats 66 (D66) became the largest party in the House of Representatives for the first time, winning 26 seats, the same number as the Party for Freedom (PVV), but receiving 29,668 more votes.[3] GroenLinks (GL) and the Labour Party (PvdA) merged in 2026 to form Progressief Nederland (PRO).[4]
Electoral system
Eligible voters are Dutch nationals who are at least 18 years old on nomination day and have not been deprived of their right to vote following a criminal conviction. Electoral procedures are governed by the Dutch Electoral Act.[5]
Elections for the House of Representatives are normally held every four years, unless a snap election is called. Regular general elections in the Netherlands are held in March. However, due to municipal elections already taking place in March 2030, general elections would instead be held in May 2030.[6][5][7]
The 150 members of the House of Representatives are elected by semi-open list proportional representation. The number of seats per list is determined using the D'Hondt method. A list must receive a number of votes equal to or exceeding the Hare quota (1 full seat) in order to qualify for seat distribution, meaning there is an electoral threshold of 0.67%.[8]
Voters have the option to cast a preferential vote. The seats won by a list are first allocated to the candidates who, in preferential votes, have received at least 25% of the Hare quota (effectively ¼ of a seat or 0.17% of the total votes), regardless of their placement on the electoral list. If multiple candidates from a list pass this threshold, their ordering is determined based on the number of votes received. Any remaining seats are allocated to candidates according to their position on the electoral list.[9][10]
Opinion polls
Seats
There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
D66 | PVV | VVD | PRO[a] | CDA | JA21 | FvD | BBB | Denk | SGP | PvdD | CU | SP | 50+ | Volt | Others | Lead | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos I&O | 1–2 Sep 2026 | 1,649 | 20 | 17 | 20 | 26 | 14 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | [11] |
| Peil.nl | 29 Aug 2026 | – | 18 | 18 | 16 | 26 | 13 | 17 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 8 | [12] |
| Verian | 21–24 Aug 2026 | 1,251 | 17 | 16 | 19 | 26 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | [13] |
| Peil.nl | 1 Aug 2026 | – | 18 | 18 | 16 | 24 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | [14] |
| Ipsos I&O | 10–13 Jul 2026 | 1,682 | 23 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 14 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [15] |
| Verian | 26–29 Jun 2026 | 1,251 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 26 | 15 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 6 | [16] |
| Peil.nl | 20 Jun 2026 | – | 19 | 17 | 17 | 25 | 13 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | [17] |
| Ipsos I&O | 12–15 Jun 2026 | 1,529 | 20 | 16 | 20 | 26 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | [18] |
| Esther Ouwehand hands over leadership of the PvdD to Christine Teunissen[19] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Verian | 21–25 May 2026 | 1,232 | 17 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 15 | 11 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | [20] |
| Peil.nl | 23 May 2026 | – | 19 | 18 | 17 | 23 | 15 | 18 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | [21] |
| Ipsos I&O | 8–11 May 2026 | 1,560 | 20 | 19 | 21 | 24 | 15 | 13 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [22] |
| Verian | 24–27 Apr 2026 | 1,241 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 24 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 4 | [23] |
| Peil.nl | 25 Apr 2026 | – | 22 | 17 | 16 | 22 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | Tie | [24] |
| Peil.nl | 18 Apr 2026 | – | 20 | 19 | 17 | 23 | 16 | 17 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [25] |
| The Markuszower Group becomes a political party, founding De Nederlandse Alliantie[26] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Ipsos I&O | 10–13 Apr 2026 | 1,680 | 19 | 18 | 20 | 26 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | [27] |
| Verian | 27–30 Mar 2026 | 1,282 | 20 | 18 | 19 | 24 | 17 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | [28] |
| Peil.nl | 27 Mar 2026 | – | 22 | 17 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | Tie | [29] |
| 2026 Dutch municipal elections | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Peil.nl | 13 Mar 2026 | – | 25 | 17 | 18 | 23 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | [30] |
| Ipsos I&O | 6–9 Mar 2026 | 1,802 | 24 | 19 | 21 | 25 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | [31] |
| Peil.nl | 6 Mar 2026 | – | 27 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | [32] |
| Mona Keijzer leaves the BBB and continues as an independent MP[33] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| The Jetten cabinet is sworn in[34] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Verian | 20–23 Feb 2026 | 1,319 | 22 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 14 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | [35] |
| Peil.nl | 21 Feb 2026 | – | 27 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | [36] |
| Caroline van der Plas hands over leadership of the BBB to Henk Vermeer[37] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Ipsos I&O | 13–16 Feb 2026 | 1,802 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [38] |
| Peil.nl | 8 Feb 2026 | – | 27 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | [39] |
| Ipsos I&O | 30 Jan – 2 Feb 2026 | 2,614 | 26 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | [40] |
| Verian | 23–26 Jan 2026 | 1,269 | 26 | 18 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3 | [41] |
| Peil.nl | 25 Jan 2026 | – | 27 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | [42] |
| Seven MPs leave the PVV to form the Markuszower Group[43] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Ipsos I&O | 16–19 Jan 2026 | 2,260 | 28 | 23 | 20 | 19 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 5 | [44] |
| Peil.nl | 17 Jan 2026 | – | 28 | 17 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 11 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | [45] |
| Peil.nl | 19 Dec 2025 | – | 28 | 20 | 22 | 20 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | [46] |
| Ipsos I&O | 12–15 Dec 2025 | 1,958 | 28 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | [47] |
| Peil.nl | 29 Nov 2025 | – | 28 | 23 | 22 | 19 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | [48] |
| Verian | 21–24 Nov 2025 | 1,550 | 31 | 22 | 20 | 16 | 20 | 9 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | [49] |
| Peil.nl | 22 Nov 2025 | – | 28 | 23 | 23 | 18 | 17 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | [50] |
| Peil.nl | 7 Nov 2025 | – | 28 | 24 | 22 | 18 | 18 | 10 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | [51] |
| Jesse Klaver succeeds Frans Timmermans as leader of GL–PvdA[52] | ||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 election | 29 Oct 2025 | – | 26 | 26 | 22 | 20 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | Tie | |
Vote share
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size |
D66 | PVV | VVD | PRO[a] | CDA | JA21 | FvD | BBB | Denk | SGP | PvdD | CU | SP | 50+ | Volt | Others | Lead | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos I&O | 1–2 Sep 2026 | 1,649 | 13.2% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 16.6% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.2% | 3.4% | [11] |
| Verian | 21–24 Aug 2026 | 1,284 | 11.3% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 16.6% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | – | 4.1% | [53] |
| Ipsos I&O | 10–13 Jul 2026 | 1,628 | 14.9% | 11.3% | 12.7% | 15.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | [15] |
| Verian | 26–29 Jun 2026 | 1,251 | 10.9% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 17.1% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.0% | – | 4.0% | [54] |
| Ipsos I&O | 12–15 Jun 2026 | 1,529 | 13.0% | 10.2% | 13.3% | 16.5% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.6% | – | 3.2% | [18] |
| Verian | 21–25 May 2026 | 1,232 | 11.1% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 16.3% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | – | 1.5% | [55] |
| Ipsos I&O | 8–11 May 2026 | 1,560 | 12.9% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 15.4% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 0.8% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | – | 1.9% | [22] |
| Verian | 24–27 Apr 2026 | 1,241 | 11.2% | 13.0% | 12.9% | 15.9% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.0% | – | 2.9% | [56] |
| Ipsos I&O | 10–13 Apr 2026 | 1,680 | 12.6% | 12.1% | 13.2% | 16.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 1.7% | – | 3.5% | [27] |
| Verian | 27–30 Mar 2026 | 1,282 | 13.0% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 15.3% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.6% | – | 2.3% | [57] |
| Ipsos I&O | 6–9 Mar 2026 | 1,802 | 15.2% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 15.9% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 6.8% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | – | 0.7% | [31] |
| Verian | 20–23 Feb 2026 | 1,319 | 13.8% | 13.6% | 14.6% | 14.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.5% | – | 0.1% | [58] |
| Verian | 23–26 Jan 2026 | 1,269 | 17.0% | 11.7% | 14.7% | 13.7% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% | – | 2.3% | [59] |
| Verian | 21–24 Nov 2025 | 1,550 | 20.3% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 0.9% | – | 6.0% | [60] |
| 2025 election | 29 Oct 2025 | – | 16.94% | 16.66% | 14.24% | 12.79% | 11.79% | 5.95% | 4.54% | 2.65% | 2.37% | 2.25% | 2.08% | 1.90% | 1.89% | 1.43% | 1.10% | 1.41% | 0.28% |
Notes
- Presented before 13 June 2026 as GroenLinks–PvdA