Talk:Bitcoin/Archive 35
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Request to update the latest release
Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 8 May 2019
Person name Craig Wright say he is Satoshi Nakamoto
Edit request
edit request
Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 21 August 2019
'Speculative bubble' in lead section?
reserve currency
Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 18 September 2019
Update plots
source
Edit request: "Carbon Emissions" as new subsection within the chapter "Criticism"
Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment
Remove obsolete forecast
Wiki Education Foundation-supported course assignment
vanity fair source
Could somebody with editing permission ...
Lightning Network
Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 22 January 2020
Mathematical feasibility of discovery of private key by computation
Forbes
Forks Confusing
Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 2 April 2020
Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 2 April 2020
Updated figures on the number of wallets
Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 26 April 2020
Source for halving date
AFD
User:Jakesyl conflict of interest edit
AFD 2
Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 6 August 2020
Base58
"List of bitcoin wallets" listed at Redirects for discussion
Bitcoin-related programming languages?
Citations needed
Segwit 2013-2016 Citation needed
All-time high
Please remove misleading/inaccurate paragraph
None of the items listed here are critical opinions. Someone who knows more about Bitcoin than me should update.Stanlygoodspeed (talk) 13:46, 4 December 2020 (UTC)
- You seem to overlook that critical opinions can be either positive or negative. Do I understand correctly that, according to your opinion, critiques must always be negative? Ladislav Mecir (talk) 15:17, 6 December 2020 (UTC)
- Moreover, per WP:NPOV, we must be neutral and not cherry-pick just the critiques that are negative. Ladislav Mecir (talk) 15:20, 6 December 2020 (UTC)
Other critical opinions
I agree that, technically speaking, critical opinions can be positive or negative. I also agree with the need to be neutral and to include positive opinions. Rather than being grammatically inaccurate, I just think that the Criticism section is unclear and reads poorly. Example: "Here are four criticisms of Person A: 1) he is mean, 2) he smells bad, 3) he hates dogs, and 4) he's a great guy".
But, given that the section is correct as is, I won't push too hard for a change if it's not a popular position.Stanlygoodspeed (talk) 16:36, 7 December 2020 (UTC)
- I agree with you and think the critical opinions should be negative. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 16:45, 7 December 2020 (UTC)
- Well, you seem to ignore that the critiques can be both negative as well as positive and forget that it is not allowed by the WP:NPOV to try to cherry-pick only the negative ones. I really do not understand why you want to eliminate the positive critiques from experts such as David Andolfatto. Ladislav Mecir (talk) 23:06, 7 December 2020 (UTC)
- Right now the main section is about criticism and sub section is about critical opinions. You are talking about critiques so I guess I am nitpicking. Taking a step back, in general I think we do need to rename the section to 'reactions', 'critiques's, etc. Then we can cover both +/-. In the past I think it was mostly edge case fringe people that were non-notable on the positive side, so the positive opinion wasn't due. I think the section has also been used as an area to allow for NPOV as there are a large number of DUE negative comments, which I suspect will only grow. But now there are both positive and negative critiques of the system. I stray off subject, I just mean to say here that if we are going to use 'critical opinions' it seems like negative opinions to me. So we should delete it, or maybe change to critiques as the subsection heading. Thoughts? Jtbobwaysf (talk) 09:27, 8 December 2020 (UTC)
- Well, you seem to ignore that the critiques can be both negative as well as positive and forget that it is not allowed by the WP:NPOV to try to cherry-pick only the negative ones. I really do not understand why you want to eliminate the positive critiques from experts such as David Andolfatto. Ladislav Mecir (talk) 23:06, 7 December 2020 (UTC)
- Was reading through the talk page out of interest. Is there a reason the 60-65% Chinese hash rate dominance is not included in the criticisms? This seems to be one of the most glaring and pertinent issues. Bitcoin, in this manner, seems to be becoming less decentralized with time in the sense that the ant-miners are all produced in China (low-cost access to perquisite hardware) & access to cheap abundant energy means mining infrastructure is easy to build and maintain in China. Since BTC mining will, roughly, follow the path of least resistance this trend is likely to continue. With 60-65% of the hash rate, China & the CCP could likely do some serious damage if they ever wanted to (to the network). Of course, this is me being a "devil's advocate" and I don't think this will happen. Source 1: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2020/08/23/chris-larsen-executive-chair-of-ripple-argues-china-can-reverse-bitcoin-transactions/?sh=634594b44783 Source 2: https://www.forbes.com/sites/cryptoconfidential/2019/12/15/crypto-ponzi-scheme-china-dominates-bitcoin-mining/?sh=29c5e70d534b EDIT: Ah, I see now it is included under the section: Trend towards centralization - should this potentially be moved/ included in criticisms though? Bob (talk) 10:22, 7 December 2020 (UTC)
- Apart from perhaps moving the "trend to centralization section" to criticisms I noticed the criticism section "As a speculative bubble" - shouldn't this reference a time period? Almost every stock market in history has gone through some form of bubble period(s) yet we don't refer to them being in a perpetual state of "bubble" territory. For instance "Bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies, has been described as an economic bubble in 2017 & 2014 by at least eight..". Currently, the market is nowhere near the "mania" / bubble phase looking at the on chain metrics. Also, I find the section "Security Issues" interesting as it is not a criticism of Bitcoin but rather exchanges. Theft & exchange problems are exactly that: Exchange problems not "Bitcoin" problems. (just a thought) Lastly (on this section) - the "Other critical opinions" bit seems a bit out of place under "Criticisms" as these are all positive quotes by individuals - would this not be better placed under "In popular culture" Bob (talk) 10:46, 7 December 2020 (UTC)
- First, we are not using WP:UGC type sources, such as the Forbes sites that have "contributor" next to the author's name. I also agree with you that the bubble claims should be time dated. Especially given that the earlier bubble now seems to the present market price again (which seems to contradict the bubble concept). Jtbobwaysf (talk) 16:45, 7 December 2020 (UTC)
- Re 'would this not be better placed under "In popular culture"' - certainly not. The "In popular culture" section lists the cases when bitcoin appeared in films, TV series, etc., i.e. in popular culture. That is not the case of the critiques you refer to, they did not have anything in common with the popular culture, in fact. Ladislav Mecir (talk) 23:06, 7 December 2020 (UTC)
- Re '"As a speculative bubble" - shouldn't this reference a time period?' - that seems logical, and you seem to wonder why the authors of the statement, reputable economists, didn't say things such as "Bitcoin market is in a bubble at the time being.", etc. A sentence such as "Bitcoin is a speculative bubble." perhaps looks to an attentive reader such as yourself as a statement not adhering to the existing definition of the speculative bubble term, however, that really is what the cited experts said and what they said that way on purpose. Ladislav Mecir (talk) 23:06, 7 December 2020 (UTC)
- I suppose to deal with this we need to date when these people are saying it is in a bubble. I am sure there will be more bubble claims as bitcoin runs into its next bubble over the next year or two. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 09:27, 8 December 2020 (UTC)
- @Ladislav Mecir: I also agree with you that the "Other critical opinions" is out of place under popular culture. Was musing as to where it would fit best as the user above (@Stanlygoodspeed:) is correct in noting that they aren't really "critical" at all, on the contrary they are endorsements. I think that the best way to handle the "bubble" section would indeed be to note when a statement was made as @Jtbobwaysf: suggested - otherwise it becomes rather vague and generalized as to whether Bitcoin is in a perpetual state of "bubble" territory. The current wording suggests that a feature/flaw of Bitcoin is that it is in a permanent "bubble" state. I currently do not have the prerequisite Extended-Protection level to change/adjust this as I am rather new here :) Bob (talk) 10:34, 8 December 2020 (UTC)
- I suppose to deal with this we need to date when these people are saying it is in a bubble. I am sure there will be more bubble claims as bitcoin runs into its next bubble over the next year or two. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 09:27, 8 December 2020 (UTC)
- My suggestion is to do something as seen below with date stamps indicating when an individual made a statement regarding "bubble", it provides context and is more accurate. Alternatively could use ("in" YEAR) rather than just the (YEAR).
- With regards to the "Other Critical Opinions" section perhaps it is best this becomes its own section slightly before/after "pop culture" as a -> "Notable Opinions" section. Here you could have both positive & negative quotes coming from individuals. — Preceding unsigned comment added by Blockchainus Maximus (talk • contribs) 11:50, 8 December 2020 (UTC)
Bob (talk) 11:23, 8 December 2020 (UTC)
- Re "...suppose to deal with this we need to date when these people are saying it is in a bubble." - that is the problem you do not seem to understand. The reputable economists never said that bitcoin was/is in a bubble. They said that "bitcoin is a bubble", which they did mean as a different statement than the statement that the bitcoin market prices are/were in a bubble at the specific time. In constrast to that, they wanted to underline that according to their opinion, bitcoin should never have had an above zero price. I do not think that anybody claiming that should be considered an expert on the subject matter, but I want to respect Wikipedia policies and represent their opinion in the article no matter what my personal opnion is. Ladislav Mecir (talk) 11:54, 8 December 2020 (UTC)
- I agree and in no way am I saying this section should be removed in any way (I don't believe I ever said or implied anything of the sort) and I understand the perspective of those that have said it. In no way would the addition of a simple date stamp impact their opinion or statement. "According to their opinion, bitcoin should never have had an above zero price" - isn't that your opinion not theirs? I am simply saying that indicating when an individual said this provides context as it so happens most of these statements coincided with the 2014/late 2017/early 2018 peaks regardless of whether they meant it as a general statement (I for one don't claim to know their current thoughts opinions on the matter). JPM and many big banks can be quoted as saying they "hate bitcoin" yet now they are buying/ praising bitcoin. Context and time matters. One of those quoted above for instance recently changed his mind somewhat (for instance): https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2020/11/13/nouriel-roubini-cryptos-fiercest-critic-admits-bitcoin-could-be-a-partial-store-of-value/?sh=12a951251615 Bob (talk) 12:39, 8 December 2020 (UTC)
- The dates the statements were made are encyclopedic and become interesting as time passes. 'In may 2012 x said bubble'. 'In August 2016 y said bubble'. 'In Sept 2020 z said bubble.' I suggest this adds cohesion to the section and makes it more interesting as well. Is there a date policy we need to follow? Do we have to use the date, month, year? Or should we just go to year for this section? Jtbobwaysf (talk) 15:32, 8 December 2020 (UTC)
- I agree with this approach. Even if BTC is a bubble, it is notable that it has inflated again and again (and now to its highest valuation ever as of today). HocusPocus00 (talk) 19:39, 16 December 2020 (UTC)
- Considering we have a situation where price is rising and falling, we should do a better job of stating when the comments were made. I suspect some bubble comments were made in the hundreds of dollars, then others in 10-20k range, then it went back to less than $4k, now back to $20k. Is it all a bubble? I think it would be SYNTH for us to say it is always a bubble because people say it over time. Thus we can solve this with dating the comments, also makes it more interesting in the event someone actually calls a bubble accurately and if others were not accurate. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 21:07, 16 December 2020 (UTC)
- I agree with this approach. Even if BTC is a bubble, it is notable that it has inflated again and again (and now to its highest valuation ever as of today). HocusPocus00 (talk) 19:39, 16 December 2020 (UTC)
- The dates the statements were made are encyclopedic and become interesting as time passes. 'In may 2012 x said bubble'. 'In August 2016 y said bubble'. 'In Sept 2020 z said bubble.' I suggest this adds cohesion to the section and makes it more interesting as well. Is there a date policy we need to follow? Do we have to use the date, month, year? Or should we just go to year for this section? Jtbobwaysf (talk) 15:32, 8 December 2020 (UTC)
As a speculative bubble
Bitcoin, along with other cryptocurrencies, has been described as an economic bubble by at least eight Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences laureates, including Robert Shiller (2014),[1] Joseph Stiglitz (2017),[2] and Richard Thaler (2018).[3][4] Noted Keynesian economist Paul Krugman has described bitcoin in 2018 as "a bubble wrapped in techno-mysticism inside a cocoon of libertarian ideology",[5] professor Nouriel Roubini of New York University has called bitcoin the "mother of all bubbles" (2018),[6] and University of Chicago economist James Heckman (2018) has compared it to the 17th-century tulip mania.[4]
Alan Greenspan (2013) and George Soros (2018) both referred to it as a "bubble".[7][8] In 2014 Warren Buffett called bitcoin a "mirage".[9]
It appears that there is a consensus that the temporal context for every "bitcoin is a bubble" statement should be provided in the article text. I support it too. Interpreting the statement in the context provided by the Economic bubble article, we should probably understand it as a historical (original) wording of the statement that "bitcoin market price is in a bubble". Interpreted that way, what the statement says is that when the statement was formulated by the respective expert, the bitcoin price appeared to him/her as implausible. I think that this also provides guidance as to whether we should provide the temporal context in the date, month, year form: I think that we should, since the price of bitcoin is rather volatile and mentioning just the month would not provide the necessary time/price context. Ladislav Mecir (talk) 14:50, 17 December 2020 (UTC)
Also, interpreting the claims that way, two experts saying "bitcoin is a bubble" at two different times actually make two different claims, which should not be interpreted as equivalent. Ladislav Mecir (talk) 14:53, 17 December 2020 (UTC)
- I agree with this. Jtbobwaysf (talk) 08:50, 18 December 2020 (UTC)
- I also agree. HocusPocus00 (talk) 07:18, 20 December 2020 (UTC)
References
- Shiller, Robert (1 March 2014). "In Search of a Stable Electronic Currency". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 24 October 2014.
- Costelloe, Kevin (29 November 2017). "Bitcoin 'Ought to Be Outlawed,' Nobel Prize Winner Stiglitz Says". Bloomberg. Archived from the original on 12 June 2018. Retrieved 5 June 2018.
It doesn't serve any socially useful function.
- "Economics Nobel prize winner, Richard Thaler: "The market that looks most like a bubble to me is Bitcoin and its brethren"". ECO Portuguese Economy. 22 January 2018. Archived from the original on 12 June 2018. Retrieved 7 June 2018.
- Wolff-Mann, Ethan (27 April 2018). "'Only good for drug dealers': More Nobel prize winners snub bitcoin". Yahoo Finance. Archived from the original on 12 June 2018. Retrieved 7 June 2018.
- Krugman, Paul (29 January 2018). "Bubble, Bubble, Fraud and Trouble". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 4 June 2018.
- "Bitcoin biggest bubble in history, says economist who predicted 2008 crash". Archived from the original on 12 June 2018.
- Kearns, Jeff (4 December 2013). "Greenspan Says Bitcoin a Bubble Without Intrinsic Currency Value". bloomberg.com. Bloomberg LP. Archived from the original on 29 December 2013. Retrieved 23 December 2013.
- Porzecanski, Katia (25 January 2018). "George Soros: Bitcoin is a bubble, Trump is a 'danger to the world'". Globe and Mail. Bloomberg News. Archived from the original on 9 June 2018. Retrieved 7 June 2018.
- Crippen, Alex (14 March 2014). "Bitcoin? Here's what Warren Buffett is saying". CNBC. Archived from the original on 13 January 2017. Retrieved 11 January 2017.