Talk:Brexit/Archive 6
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User:snogansnoogans, you reverted my change to the claim that a certain piece of primary research 'shows' that specific economic effects resulted from the Brexit vote. Read the research in question: it shows that the economic effects followed the vote, not that they were caused by it.
Incidentally, I am familiar with WP:RS. It says: "Articles should rely on secondary sources whenever possible." You in your summary said that Academic studies are generally the best sources; but note the title of the paper: "The consequences of the Brexit vote for UK inflation and living standards: First evidence". The paper does not show what the reverted version of the article says it shows. It merely presents evidence.
I am going to reinstate my change. I am happy to discuss the best form of words here, and I think 'is claimed to' is probably not correct, because I'm not aware that that claim has actually been made by anyone. The best thing would be to find a good secondary source that cites this paper. MrDemeanour (talk) 11:47, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- "Read the research in question: it shows that the economic effects followed the vote, not that they were caused by it." This is not accurate. Snooganssnoogans (talk) 11:51, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- Well, of course I did read the paper before making my change. Your remark is equivalent to saying "I don't agree", without saying why you don't agree. Please show where the research asserts causation. in their conclusions, the authors do indeed say that their results 'indicate' (not 'show') that the economic consequences result from the vote. But that is not true; perhaps the word 'suggest' would have been more appropriate.
- It's hard to see how such research could possibly show causation; it's simply an examination of economic trends before and after the vote. And note the title of the article: "The consequences of the Brexit vote for UK inflation and living standards: First evidence". The paper is a report of some early evidence, but it claims conclusions that are not supported by that evidence. In fact the paper repeatedly assumes its own conclusions - e.g. "By increasing prices without affecting nominal wage growth, the referendum has also reduced real wages, costing the average worker almost one week’s wages (4.4 working days’ wages, to be precise)." This is why secondary sources are preferred: researchers naturally want to big-up the significance of their findings, and Wikipedians are generally not competent to evaluate primary research.
- Please self-revert; and let's have a discussion here before making further changes, in accordance with the WP:BRD policy that you have commended to me on my talk page. MrDemeanour (talk) 12:37, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- You don't understand the research or how causality is determined in the study. The study clearly says that this is a causal relationship, both in the summary and the study itself. Your desire to mislabel the study as a correlation (something that laymen like to do when studies that they don't understand show things that they don't like) is WP:OR. Snooganssnoogans (talk) 12:48, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- The authors assume their own conclusions repeatedly in this paper. They fail to show causation; in fact, they don't even try to. They just state baldly that they have shown causation. This is no kind of OR; this is simply reading the source, to see if it sustains the text that is cited to it. It doesn't. MrDemeanour (talk) 12:59, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- Please contact the authors. I'm sure they'll appreciate your corrections and promptly retract the paper. You could even link to the Correlation does not imply causation page, because they must be totally unfamiliar with the concept. Snooganssnoogans (talk) 13:19, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- God I'm sick of dealing with condescending editors like this. I have made a good faith attempt to improve the article; some snarling attack-dog has jumped on me.
- The article is relying on a paper with a single citation by anyone other than the authors, to sustain a claim of a £404pa reduction in living standards? Spurious precision, anyone? And the claim is cited to a summary, rather than the original PDF? Well, I've now read the original PDF (which is not linked from the HTML summary - there's no way for an ordinary Wikipedia user to know that the citation is not to the research paper). It says the same as the summary, thankfully; that exchange rate changes following the vote were caused by the vote (no evidence or reasoning); and that inflation following the vote was partly/largely the result of the exchange rate changes (reasoning provided).
- I'm certainly not interested in arguing with academics; I have no standing, and your suggestions that I attempt that are insulting. I have already pointed out that the citation is to primary research. It should be to a secondary source that evaluates the primary research; that's why I was interested in who might have cited this paper.
- Anyway, I'm done here. I'm not a full-time Wikipedian; I have a life. I use the encyclopaedia, and when I find material that could be improved, I improve it. I'm not interested in fighting with POV article-owners. Life is too short, and there are things I care about more than fixing NPOV issues in Wikipedia articles. HAND. MrDemeanour (talk) 13:51, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- Please contact the authors. I'm sure they'll appreciate your corrections and promptly retract the paper. You could even link to the Correlation does not imply causation page, because they must be totally unfamiliar with the concept. Snooganssnoogans (talk) 13:19, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- The authors assume their own conclusions repeatedly in this paper. They fail to show causation; in fact, they don't even try to. They just state baldly that they have shown causation. This is no kind of OR; this is simply reading the source, to see if it sustains the text that is cited to it. It doesn't. MrDemeanour (talk) 12:59, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- You don't understand the research or how causality is determined in the study. The study clearly says that this is a causal relationship, both in the summary and the study itself. Your desire to mislabel the study as a correlation (something that laymen like to do when studies that they don't understand show things that they don't like) is WP:OR. Snooganssnoogans (talk) 12:48, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- Interestingly, Google Scholar shows this paper being cited just four times. And three of those times, the authors are citing their own paper! MrDemeanour (talk) 12:59, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
- You're demonstrating an unfamiliarity with academia and Google Scholar in particular. How many cites do you expect a six-month old paper to get? Snooganssnoogans (talk) 13:19, 2 June 2018 (UTC)
Meanwhile no less than the Governor of the Bank of England says that every household is already £900 worse off as a result.[1] But what does he know? --John Maynard Friedman (talk) 19:31, 3 June 2018 (UTC)
- I'm not £900 worse off. If the British people were all £900 worse off they'd be screaming and the media would be full of it. It's more remain propaganda from him. He admitted he was wrong last time he said it. Everyone knows it's nonsense. All economic measure are up,some of them at record levels.213.205.241.1 (talk) 22:35, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
Autocorrect mangled my reversion note. Brexit is still "planned" so, per wp:crystal, we can't report it as a done deal until it actually is a done deal. --John Maynard Friedman (talk) 21:23, 12 May 2018 (UTC)
- Please note - Brexit isn't planned. It has been decided on. Negotiations are about trade etc. after Brexit takes place.213.205.241.1 (talk) 22:48, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
What's about Post-Brexit roaming charges once the Brexiting state is out of the digital single market, with Brexiters' ″no deal″?
Article fails to deal with this point. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 86.67.188.216 (talk) 19:21, 26 March 2018 (UTC)
- As with the many other items on a very long list of loose ends, we have no idea what will happen and Wikipedia policy is that we don't speculate, see WP:CRYSTAL. --John Maynard Friedman (talk) 09:34, 27 March 2018 (UTC)
- It might be a very long list of loose ends for you, but British people have voted on this topic. Is there any reason to deal with The combined EU fishing fleets land about 6 million tonnes of fish per year,[246] of which about 3 million tonnes are from UK waters and not with roaming? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 81.185.253.228 (talk) 23:02, 3 April 2018 (UTC)
- By the way, I have tried to translate a summary of this article into Swedish Wikipedia. There is much text here and in sub articles. But there are too much speculation and political statements from various politicians and experts and too little facts to make a decent article of it.--BIL (talk) 14:52, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
- It might be a very long list of loose ends for you, but British people have voted on this topic. Is there any reason to deal with The combined EU fishing fleets land about 6 million tonnes of fish per year,[246] of which about 3 million tonnes are from UK waters and not with roaming? — Preceding unsigned comment added by 81.185.253.228 (talk) 23:02, 3 April 2018 (UTC)
Hi Snooganssnoogans. There is no question of a border problem with France in the article body, and hence the lead needs to be updated accordingly. 81.131.172.167 (talk) 12:32, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
- Reliable sources still refer to the border as an unresolved dispute, one with great implications. Snooganssnoogans (talk) 12:41, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
- Re-read the lead sentence carefully and you will see why it is wrong. India and Pakistan have a border dispute. Gibraltar and Spain have a border dispute. But France and Britain...? 81.131.172.167 (talk) 12:50, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
- Revised this to reflect the fact the dispute with France is over border control arrangements, not the border itself. Have left Gibraltar and Spain as a border dispute, as Spain disputes the legitimacy of the border as well as arrangements and negotiation process over the arrangements being more uncertain Dtellett (talk) 19:40, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
- Not just Calais. Ditto San Sabastian, Zeebrugge, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Copenhagen, Malmö. The dispute over Gib is too detailed for the lead, enough just to mention that border too.--John Maynard Friedman (talk) 19:51, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
- Only slightly better, because no-one has addressed the main problem: that the lead contradicts the article body. The lead says there might be a potential border (management) dispute EU vs UK, but the article body does not mention this (except in the specific case of Northern Ireland). And the French subsection even says the opposite: control arrangements are to remain the same because they are not governed by EU legislation. In other words, you should not make claims in the lead until you have fixed the problem in the article. So this is what you need to do: Step 1. Temporarily confine Snoogans to a chicken coop so he does not panic. Step 2: Explain in the article body what the border problem is and use references, for example those provided by Snoogans. Step 3. Summarise in the lead what the article says. Simple really. 81.131.172.167 (talk) 21:12, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
- Apart from step 1, I accept that argument and agree. Text anyone? --John Maynard Friedman (talk) 12:54, 10 June 2018 (UTC)
- Only slightly better, because no-one has addressed the main problem: that the lead contradicts the article body. The lead says there might be a potential border (management) dispute EU vs UK, but the article body does not mention this (except in the specific case of Northern Ireland). And the French subsection even says the opposite: control arrangements are to remain the same because they are not governed by EU legislation. In other words, you should not make claims in the lead until you have fixed the problem in the article. So this is what you need to do: Step 1. Temporarily confine Snoogans to a chicken coop so he does not panic. Step 2: Explain in the article body what the border problem is and use references, for example those provided by Snoogans. Step 3. Summarise in the lead what the article says. Simple really. 81.131.172.167 (talk) 21:12, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
- Not just Calais. Ditto San Sabastian, Zeebrugge, Rotterdam, Hamburg, Copenhagen, Malmö. The dispute over Gib is too detailed for the lead, enough just to mention that border too.--John Maynard Friedman (talk) 19:51, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
- Revised this to reflect the fact the dispute with France is over border control arrangements, not the border itself. Have left Gibraltar and Spain as a border dispute, as Spain disputes the legitimacy of the border as well as arrangements and negotiation process over the arrangements being more uncertain Dtellett (talk) 19:40, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
- Re-read the lead sentence carefully and you will see why it is wrong. India and Pakistan have a border dispute. Gibraltar and Spain have a border dispute. But France and Britain...? 81.131.172.167 (talk) 12:50, 9 June 2018 (UTC)
The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.
The article from the section "Economic effects" is very biased. It's just Remain propaganda. Needs to be corrected.195.11.204.67 (talk) 18:37, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
Administrator note Please focus on article content and making concrete suggestions for improvement. --NeilN talk to me 20:19, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
What do you mean? The comment is clear.213.205.241.1 (talk) 22:24, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
- "Needs to be corrected." How? With what text? Using what sources? --NeilN talk to me 23:28, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
Wrong to accuse people of being "a troll" for no reason. Talk pages are here for people to talk about the main article, including pointing out things wrong and suggesting solutions to that.213.205.241.1 (talk) 22:29, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
- You probably should make an account if you don't want to confuse people. Your IP is also from Glasgow, you are almost certainly the same user we are talking about. Luxofluxo (talk) 22:34, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
- I don't know what you're talking about. Who is talking about who? I don't know why you have a hang up about me or why you're stalking my isp account. Most of the people on this page are not logged in via an account so why pick on me?213.205.241.1 (talk) 23:25, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
- Because commenting from another IP address from the other you were editing from originally, without making that clear, whilst supporting your original IP's edits might lead some to the conclusion that you engaging in sock puppetry. No one is stalking your IP. As Wikipedia makes clear to you, if you edit whilst not signed into an account, your IP address is kept as a public record. Luxofluxo (talk) 23:34, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
- I don't know what you're talking about. Who is talking about who? I don't know why you have a hang up about me or why you're stalking my isp account. Most of the people on this page are not logged in via an account so why pick on me?213.205.241.1 (talk) 23:25, 7 June 2018 (UTC)
David Davis/ Oliver Robbins versus Michel Barnier/ Guy Verhofstadt/ Didier Seeuws
I suggest either (a) removing David Davis from the lead or (b) keeping David Davis but adding his EU counterparts Michel Barnier, Guy Verhofstadt and Didier Seeuws. My preference is for removing David Davis because the lead needs to be concise, and secondly Theresa May has arguably sidelined David Davis by appointing Oliver Robbins as her advisor. I shall BE BOLD and make the deletion. If you wish to revert it, please discuss your reasons and preferences here. 81.131.172.167 (talk) 14:57, 10 June 2018 (UTC)
- Isn't David Davis still the Secretary of State for Brexit?213.205.241.128 (talk) 17:02, 10 June 2018 (UTC)
- Formally, yes. But read here what happened in September 2017: Oliver Robbins. By the way, since March 2018 likewise Michel Barnier is being sidelined and ignored by the EU heads of state (commencement of phase 2 talks in March 2018 despite Northern Ireland requirement not being met by the UK), and recently Barnier also seems to be sidelined by the British Government (who have delayed presenting their White Paper until after the EU Council will have met on June 27). Now that the talks are reaching the final phase, seems like the captains on both sides are taking over from their officers. 81.131.172.167 (talk) 17:16, 10 June 2018 (UTC)
- You may possibly be right but unless you can find a wp: reliable source that says so, then it is your opinion and is therefore precluded by wp:no original research/wp:pov/wp:syn. --John Maynard Friedman (talk) 22:28, 12 June 2018 (UTC)
- Formally, yes. But read here what happened in September 2017: Oliver Robbins. By the way, since March 2018 likewise Michel Barnier is being sidelined and ignored by the EU heads of state (commencement of phase 2 talks in March 2018 despite Northern Ireland requirement not being met by the UK), and recently Barnier also seems to be sidelined by the British Government (who have delayed presenting their White Paper until after the EU Council will have met on June 27). Now that the talks are reaching the final phase, seems like the captains on both sides are taking over from their officers. 81.131.172.167 (talk) 17:16, 10 June 2018 (UTC)
Querying redirection for "British Independent Film"
The article header contains this message:
"British independent" redirects here. For the film awards, see British Independent Film Awards.
Is this really necessary? 81.131.172.24 (talk) 17:33, 13 June 2018 (UTC)
Uninformative lead term "uncertain"
The lead contains this uninformative statement:
The size of the "divorce bill", the UK's inheritance of existing EU trade agreements, and relations with the Republic of Ireland remain uncertain.
This is a meaningless sentence. The future of Switzerland is uncertain. The Pope's next encyclica is uncertain. Life is uncertain.
I think what the editor is trying to say is that these three EU negotiation demands/red lines (Ireland, euroclearing, divorce bill) have featured prominently in the negotiations. Can we reformulate accordingly? 81.131.171.190 (talk) 10:14, 14 June 2018 (UTC)
- It is informative, and suitably concise for the lead: those are all matters of concern in the UK negotiations with the EU that have yet to be resolved, decided, determined and implemented, and at this time the outcome is uncertain. Qexigator (talk) 11:07, 14 June 2018 (UTC)
- As I understand it, the size of the divorce bill has not been discussed at all, by either side. Barnier has requested the UK come up with a calculation mechanism (not a sum), and Davis has politely ignored this demand. In other developments, the UK Treasury has pencilled in 37-39 billion pounds for a potential settlement. So I think the word "uncertain" is not only uninformative but potentially misleading. 81.131.171.190 (talk) 17:14, 14 June 2018 (UTC)
- If you wish to add further text in the body to that effect, properly sourced, the single word "uncertain" in the lead would still suffice to cover it. How can it be "potentially misleading" when it is a simple factual description of the state of affairs? Qexigator (talk) 19:05, 14 June 2018 (UTC)
- In a narrow sense you are right. The size of the divorce bill is as uncertain as the length of the Pope's nose. However neither the Pope's nose nor the size of the divorce bill have been subject of discussion between the negotiators, as far as I am aware from the Wikipedia article or from published sources. My information is that the negotiations on the divorce bill have become bogged down in technical/legal disagreement, and that the discussion never reached the stage of discussing any "size". That is what I meant when I said the sentence is both meaningless and potentially misleading. How about this alternative: "Three EU demands (regarding Ireland, euroclearing, and a "divorce bill") have featured prominently in the negotiations, without agreement as of June 2018."81.131.171.190 (talk) 22:10, 14 June 2018 (UTC)
- In the current state of uncertainty, the present wording suffices. Qexigator (talk) 23:10, 14 June 2018 (UTC)
- Length of the Pope's nose is not uncertain, first because such nose should not change so much as long as the Pope does not change, and also, because a new Pope might have a new nose with a regular size. It looks quite certain next nose will be between zero and twenty centimeters. And people do not care; do you?
- NPOV means various point of view could be provided for certainty vs uncertainty.
- Jeegar Kakkad, chief economist and director of policy at ADS, said he believed a lack of certainty over Brexit "has worried companies and supply chains for the past 12 months".
- Professional services firms also needed an agreement with the EU which featured "mutual recognition of professional qualifications, products and operating licences; the ability of our providers to fly in-fly out to facilitate advice across the EU27 and trade across Europe; mutual recognition of judgments so deals across EU27 countries can proceed with legal certainty; and continued co-operation in areas that facilitate trade - such as data sharing".
- “We have advanced on some separation issues for which European businesses need certainty, such as customs, VAT, Euratom and certificates for goods,” Barnier said in a statement accompanying a joint declaration from Brussels and London.
- Davis rejected such concerns, saying the bill and the powers it will create were designed to ensure legal certainty and that any changes in policy would be carried out through the normal legislative process, during which parliament would have its say.
- Source that consider Brexit uncertainty: «The ‘in-out’ nature of the Brexit debate, and the focus on uncertainty about the referendum outcome, obscures another, equally important layer of Brexit uncertainty for business, which is about what a vote to leave the EU would actually mean in practice. There are uncertainties about both the destination – what the future relationship between the UK and the EU would ultimately look like – and the journey to get there. We are unlikely to get clarity about the destination before the referendum as those who want the UK to leave the EU want to avoid this becoming the question. But the alternatives have very different implications for business. There are equally many uncertainties about the journey, in part because the process of leaving the EU is unclear, but also because politics – in the rest of Europe as well as the UK – will trump economics in the negotiation between the UK and the rest of Europe. Most large businesses will want to evaluate the risks created by Brexit uncertainty from a fiduciary, operational, and strategic perspective. — Preceding unsigned comment added by 77.193.103.73 (talk) 20:24, 23 June 2018 (UTC)
- In the current state of uncertainty, the present wording suffices. Qexigator (talk) 23:10, 14 June 2018 (UTC)
- In a narrow sense you are right. The size of the divorce bill is as uncertain as the length of the Pope's nose. However neither the Pope's nose nor the size of the divorce bill have been subject of discussion between the negotiators, as far as I am aware from the Wikipedia article or from published sources. My information is that the negotiations on the divorce bill have become bogged down in technical/legal disagreement, and that the discussion never reached the stage of discussing any "size". That is what I meant when I said the sentence is both meaningless and potentially misleading. How about this alternative: "Three EU demands (regarding Ireland, euroclearing, and a "divorce bill") have featured prominently in the negotiations, without agreement as of June 2018."81.131.171.190 (talk) 22:10, 14 June 2018 (UTC)
- If you wish to add further text in the body to that effect, properly sourced, the single word "uncertain" in the lead would still suffice to cover it. How can it be "potentially misleading" when it is a simple factual description of the state of affairs? Qexigator (talk) 19:05, 14 June 2018 (UTC)
- As I understand it, the size of the divorce bill has not been discussed at all, by either side. Barnier has requested the UK come up with a calculation mechanism (not a sum), and Davis has politely ignored this demand. In other developments, the UK Treasury has pencilled in 37-39 billion pounds for a potential settlement. So I think the word "uncertain" is not only uninformative but potentially misleading. 81.131.171.190 (talk) 17:14, 14 June 2018 (UTC)