Talk:Economic growth/Archive 4
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Need to put back cognitive theory of growth
I still don't understand why this section was removed. It is a vital part of the explanation of why come economies grow rapidly, others slowly, and some decline. This view is accurate but not politically correct, so we pretend it doesn't exist or has never been investigated. Nineteen Eighty-Four was an accurate prediction.Phmoreno (talk) 18:29, 17 May 2015 (UTC)
- I am fine with replacing . Volunteer Marek deleted it as "fringe", but I am pretty sure that it does not meet WP:FRINGE at all, even using early IQ measures. I would love to see it updated with emotional intelligence, which has recently been shown to be far more predictive of economic success than the traditional Stanford-Binet IQ measure of mathematical, spatial, and linguistic reasoning alone. EllenCT (talk) 21:42, 17 May 2015 (UTC)
- It most certainly is fringe and is often associated with the so-called "scientific racism" movement. Show me a textbook on economic growth or a review volume which takes it seriously or even treats it at all.Volunteer Marek (talk) 23:44, 17 May 2015 (UTC)
- There is nothing about race or ethnicity in the deleted section at all. The source is well and affirmatively cited, very few of the citing articles even mention race or ethnicity. The overview here doesn't seem to have anything to do with racism, does it? EllenCT (talk) 06:41, 18 May 2015 (UTC)
- Most of the article in that search are based on Lynn and Vanhanen's really crappy book, which yes, does have to do with race and all that. In particular Lynn is closely associated with the Pioneer Fund (IIRC he might run it), a group widely perceived as racist and involved in funding "scientific racism" (racism dressed up in scientific lingo).Volunteer Marek (talk) 06:48, 18 May 2015 (UTC)
- Oh great. Just great. What a cluster.... How do you feel about emotional intelligence? As far as I know, it's not mired in racist creeps, and it correlates much more strongly with economic outcomes than Stanford-Binet IQ, per the meta-analysis PDF I linked above. EllenCT (talk) 05:44, 19 May 2015 (UTC)
- I don't know much about it, or at least not about how it relates to economic growth.Volunteer Marek (talk) 06:11, 19 May 2015 (UTC)
- How about this secondary source? It's not as quantitative as the meta-analysis, but it surveys far more primaries. EllenCT (talk) 06:56, 19 May 2015 (UTC)
- I would be hesitant about extrapolating (i.e. doing original research) from sources which deal with individual income (microeconomics) conclusions about economic growth (macroeconomics). While the two are obviously related they are not the same (example: higher education might enable you to extract more rents from others in the form of bribes, increasing your personal income but lowering average income in society - this is actually not uncommon in developing countries which is why sometimes education for these shows up as negatively correlated with growth). You got to beware the fallacy of composition.Volunteer Marek (talk) 03:13, 20 May 2015 (UTC)
- The first source draws explicit conclusions about macroeconomic growth. How about, "Personal capital, including IQ and emotional intelligence, is a source of economic growth. Management of emotions, ability to self-motivate, and social skills are in most cases a more important determinant than IQ, intellectual preparation, or task training," citing p. 467 of that first Tomer (2003) source? EllenCT (talk) 20:45, 20 May 2015 (UTC)
- It doesn't really. And even if it did, that's just one source out of the thousands of scholarly articles on the topic that are published every year. In this topic area, for a given variable X, where X can be anything, there exists at least one paper which claims that X is related to economic growth. That's sort of been the plague of the whole Economic Growth literature where people just do lots of data-mining to find a "significant" correlation with growth and then try to get it published (usually in some lower tier journal). Apparently, EVERYTHING is crucially important for growth. So unless this is a widely addressed question in the literature as a whole, this is WP:UNDUE.Volunteer Marek (talk) 21:43, 20 May 2015 (UTC)
- It repeatedly refers to explaining previously unexplained changes in economic growth, and you earlier said that high GDP allows greater education which causes growth, plus it's a secondary review of hundreds of primary studies. I don't think a couple sentences is undue at all, and it allows us to sidestep the larger body of primary studies corrupted by racism. EllenCT (talk) 23:01, 20 May 2015 (UTC)
- It doesn't really. And even if it did, that's just one source out of the thousands of scholarly articles on the topic that are published every year. In this topic area, for a given variable X, where X can be anything, there exists at least one paper which claims that X is related to economic growth. That's sort of been the plague of the whole Economic Growth literature where people just do lots of data-mining to find a "significant" correlation with growth and then try to get it published (usually in some lower tier journal). Apparently, EVERYTHING is crucially important for growth. So unless this is a widely addressed question in the literature as a whole, this is WP:UNDUE.Volunteer Marek (talk) 21:43, 20 May 2015 (UTC)
- The first source draws explicit conclusions about macroeconomic growth. How about, "Personal capital, including IQ and emotional intelligence, is a source of economic growth. Management of emotions, ability to self-motivate, and social skills are in most cases a more important determinant than IQ, intellectual preparation, or task training," citing p. 467 of that first Tomer (2003) source? EllenCT (talk) 20:45, 20 May 2015 (UTC)
- I would be hesitant about extrapolating (i.e. doing original research) from sources which deal with individual income (microeconomics) conclusions about economic growth (macroeconomics). While the two are obviously related they are not the same (example: higher education might enable you to extract more rents from others in the form of bribes, increasing your personal income but lowering average income in society - this is actually not uncommon in developing countries which is why sometimes education for these shows up as negatively correlated with growth). You got to beware the fallacy of composition.Volunteer Marek (talk) 03:13, 20 May 2015 (UTC)
- How about this secondary source? It's not as quantitative as the meta-analysis, but it surveys far more primaries. EllenCT (talk) 06:56, 19 May 2015 (UTC)
- I don't know much about it, or at least not about how it relates to economic growth.Volunteer Marek (talk) 06:11, 19 May 2015 (UTC)
- Oh great. Just great. What a cluster.... How do you feel about emotional intelligence? As far as I know, it's not mired in racist creeps, and it correlates much more strongly with economic outcomes than Stanford-Binet IQ, per the meta-analysis PDF I linked above. EllenCT (talk) 05:44, 19 May 2015 (UTC)
- Most of the article in that search are based on Lynn and Vanhanen's really crappy book, which yes, does have to do with race and all that. In particular Lynn is closely associated with the Pioneer Fund (IIRC he might run it), a group widely perceived as racist and involved in funding "scientific racism" (racism dressed up in scientific lingo).Volunteer Marek (talk) 06:48, 18 May 2015 (UTC)
- There is nothing about race or ethnicity in the deleted section at all. The source is well and affirmatively cited, very few of the citing articles even mention race or ethnicity. The overview here doesn't seem to have anything to do with racism, does it? EllenCT (talk) 06:41, 18 May 2015 (UTC)
- It most certainly is fringe and is often associated with the so-called "scientific racism" movement. Show me a textbook on economic growth or a review volume which takes it seriously or even treats it at all.Volunteer Marek (talk) 23:44, 17 May 2015 (UTC)
I was just reading Dension's Accounting for United States Economic Growth 1929-1969, which stresses the importance of human capital. I am going to mention human capital following the section on physical capital that I'm adding. Phmoreno (talk) 01:23, 21 May 2015 (UTC)
- And anyone who brings up "1984" in an internet argument most likely hasn't read the work.Volunteer Marek (talk) 23:45, 17 May 2015 (UTC)
- There are some well known books and papers on the subject that I would classify as serious research by people with good credentials but the data sets used have been questioned. Race Differences in Intelligence is one that was recommended to me, but I have not read it. Perhaps there exists some research that satisfies the criteria of sound data and analysis. I may sort through these, but its not a serious interest of mine. My main point in bringing this up is that if someone is going to ramble on about the effects of income inequality on economic growth, this topic needs to be part of the discussion. Maybe this approach will shed some light on why that the bottom tier of economies aren't even capable of reporting economic statistics. 1984: Required reading at my high school and I recently re-read it. Some of the things Orwell mentioned have come to pass, like being monitored by the telecreen, watching who you call, tracking your cell phone GPS and collecting data on your calls. Also the disinformation put out by the mainstream media. Big Brother really is watching you, and your banking transactions.Phmoreno (talk) 01:28, 18 May 2015 (UTC)
- The obvious answer to the question of why "bottom tier of economies aren't even capable of reporting economic statistics" is that the poor countries cannot report accurate statistics is not because people living in those countries are stupid, but because they're... poor. Collecting economic (or any other kind) of national statistics takes a lot of resources, time, money and trained educated individuals. Poor countries don't have these. Or even if they got some, they got more pressing needs to address first, before going out there and doing favors for academics. There's really no mystery here.
- And that sort of addresses the whole question of "IQ" and "cognitive theories of growth" and such. All those stats demonstrate is that poor countries happen to be... poor. With little education, inadequate childhood nutrition, environmental hazards etc. etc. etc. James Heckman pretty much killed most of this "a person is born with a fixed IQ" junk something like two decades ago. The causality runs the other way, from growth and income to these "cognitive outcomes".Volunteer Marek (talk) 07:08, 18 May 2015 (UTC)
- There are some well known books and papers on the subject that I would classify as serious research by people with good credentials but the data sets used have been questioned. Race Differences in Intelligence is one that was recommended to me, but I have not read it. Perhaps there exists some research that satisfies the criteria of sound data and analysis. I may sort through these, but its not a serious interest of mine. My main point in bringing this up is that if someone is going to ramble on about the effects of income inequality on economic growth, this topic needs to be part of the discussion. Maybe this approach will shed some light on why that the bottom tier of economies aren't even capable of reporting economic statistics. 1984: Required reading at my high school and I recently re-read it. Some of the things Orwell mentioned have come to pass, like being monitored by the telecreen, watching who you call, tracking your cell phone GPS and collecting data on your calls. Also the disinformation put out by the mainstream media. Big Brother really is watching you, and your banking transactions.Phmoreno (talk) 01:28, 18 May 2015 (UTC)
Volunteer Marek, I believe the issue is much more complicated than your poverty cycle simplification or perhaps that there is no such thing as "fixed IQ"; however, neither of these are enough to refute the work that has been published. Populations everywhere were poor until just before the early modern era, however, some were civilized (and had high income inequality, and slavery in some places). There has to be a reason why some peoples lived with stone age technology and never developed writing despite thousands of years of contact with civilization. I'd still like to know what the best work on the subject is. Some recent books on the subject include IQ and the wealth of nations and IQ and Global Inequality.Phmoreno (talk) 20:41, 18 May 2015 (UTC)
- Yes, IQ and the Wealth of Nations is the Lynn and Vanhanen book I mention above. Lynn heads the Pioneer Fund, a racist think tank.
- And this is going off into original research territory, but the answer to "why didn't some people didn't develop writing" is the same one as to almost every other question in economics. No incentive to do so. Do you really think that knowing how to write improves the productivity of a farmer engaged in subsistence traditional agriculture in the pre-industrial world? As long as societies have low population densities, hence only need a moderate level of complexity, things like "education", "writing", etc. are really just luxury consumption goods, not investment.Volunteer Marek (talk) 06:11, 19 May 2015 (UTC)
- There is one memoir I think everyone should read: La relación of Álvar Núñez Cabeza de Vaca, which tells the story of a failed Spanish expedition to N. America in 1526 of which there were four survivors out of 600. Cabeza de Vaca lived with the Native Americans for six years. His account vividly describes what life was like in the stone age. I recently gave a lecture on technology in ancient China. They had state sponsored programs on agricultural research 2000 years ago that developed intensive agriculture, hence the high population density. Intensive agriculture required iron tools, so they had 47 state owned regional foundries in the first century BC making not just agricultural implements but iron pots, which were common in ordinary households. These items did not add much to income, but they greatly reduced the amount of toil in daily life, that is, they increased productivity. If you read the Periplus of the Erythraean Sea you will find that the villages along the African coast of the Indian Ocean (ca. 50 AD+/- 10 years) traded with the Middle East and India, so they were exposed to writing and various goods, but somehow never managed to either try to write or make the things they traded for.Phmoreno (talk) 17:13, 19 May 2015 (UTC)
- I think the key phrase in the above paragraph there is "these items did not add much to income". Why adopt a technology if its' not going to improve your standard of living, especially if it's uncertain? Unless you're a state which wishes to have more subjects in order to wage wars that is.Volunteer Marek (talk) 20:19, 19 May 2015 (UTC)
- There is one memoir I think everyone should read: La relación of Álvar Núñez Cabeza de Vaca, which tells the story of a failed Spanish expedition to N. America in 1526 of which there were four survivors out of 600. Cabeza de Vaca lived with the Native Americans for six years. His account vividly describes what life was like in the stone age. I recently gave a lecture on technology in ancient China. They had state sponsored programs on agricultural research 2000 years ago that developed intensive agriculture, hence the high population density. Intensive agriculture required iron tools, so they had 47 state owned regional foundries in the first century BC making not just agricultural implements but iron pots, which were common in ordinary households. These items did not add much to income, but they greatly reduced the amount of toil in daily life, that is, they increased productivity. If you read the Periplus of the Erythraean Sea you will find that the villages along the African coast of the Indian Ocean (ca. 50 AD+/- 10 years) traded with the Middle East and India, so they were exposed to writing and various goods, but somehow never managed to either try to write or make the things they traded for.Phmoreno (talk) 17:13, 19 May 2015 (UTC)
- It is possible to improve living standards without improving income. Improving efficiency can reduce the need for income. Cooking many foods increases the amount of net energy yielded from digestion. Using a pottery oven, heater or an iron stove is several times more efficient than an open fire, reducing the consumption of firewood. A wheel reduces the friction of transport. Using an iron wheel on iron rails reduces energy 95% compared to a wagon on typical 17th century road.Phmoreno (talk) 01:30, 20 May 2015 (UTC)
- But historically improvements in efficiency did not increase income. See also my comment below.Volunteer Marek (talk) 03:07, 20 May 2015 (UTC)
- It is possible to improve living standards without improving income. Improving efficiency can reduce the need for income. Cooking many foods increases the amount of net energy yielded from digestion. Using a pottery oven, heater or an iron stove is several times more efficient than an open fire, reducing the consumption of firewood. A wheel reduces the friction of transport. Using an iron wheel on iron rails reduces energy 95% compared to a wagon on typical 17th century road.Phmoreno (talk) 01:30, 20 May 2015 (UTC)
- This reminds me. This article fails to mention Jared Diamond, Michael Kremer or more recent stuff related to this topic like Ashraf and Galor. I hesitate to add it because this article is about Economic Growth in general, hence primarily about modern economic growth, not historical.Volunteer Marek (talk) 20:35, 19 May 2015 (UTC)

