May 2003 Madrilenian regional election

Date

The term of the Assembly of Madrid expired four years after the date of its previous ordinary election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Community of Madrid (BOCM).^[3] The previous election was held on 13 June 1999, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 25 May 2003.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Madrid at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election had been called and that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or during the last year of parliament before its planned expiration, nor before one year after a previous one.^[4] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^[5] Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances did not alter the date of the chamber's next ordinary election, with elected lawmakers serving the remainder of its original four-year term.^[6]

The election to the Assembly of Madrid was officially called on 1 April 2003 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOCM, setting election day for 25 May and scheduling for the chamber to reconvene on 10 June.^[7]

Electoral system

Voting for the Assembly was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Community of Madrid and with full political rights, provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated.^[8]

The Assembly of Madrid had one seat per 50,000 inhabitants or fraction above 25,000. All were elected in a single multi-member constituency—corresponding to the autonomous community's territory—using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) regionally.^[9] As a result of the aforementioned allocation, the Assembly was entitled to 111 seats, based on the official population figures resulting from the latest revision of the municipal register (as of 1 January 2002).^[10]

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.^[11]

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.^[12]

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 56 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Madrid (52 in the 1999 election).

Color key:

  Exit poll

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout				LV	Lead
May 2003 regional election	25 May 2003	—N/a	69.3	46.7 55	40.0 47	7.7 9	1.4 0	6.7
Sigma Dos/Antena 3[p 1]	25 May 2003	?	?	? 54/55	? 46/47	? 8/10	–	?
Ipsos–Eco/RTVE[p 2]	25 May 2003	?	?	? 51/53	? 47/49	? 10/11	–	?
Opina/El País[p 3][p 4]	18 May 2003	?	?	46.0 55/56	40.0 46/47	7.5 8/9	–	6.0
Demoscopia/PP[p 5]	17 May 2003	?	?	44.5– 45.5 53/55	41.0– 42.0 49/51	6.0– 7.0 6/9	3.0– 4.0 0	3.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 6][p 7]	8–13 May 2003	800	?	47.8 54/56	41.2 47/49	7.1 8	–	6.6
Opina/Cadena SER[p 8]	11 May 2003	?	?	47.0 56/57	38.0 45/46	8.0 9	–	9.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico[p 9][p 10][p 11]	28 Apr 2003	805	?	44.5– 45.5 52/54	42.5– 43.5 50/51	6.5– 7.5 7/8	–	2.0
CIS[p 12][p 13]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	1,190	73.2	43.6 52	40.6 49	8.5 10	–	3.0
Ipsos–Eco/ABC[p 14]	22–24 Apr 2003	?	?	42.9 50/51	43.2 50/51	8.6 10	–	0.3
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia[p 15][p 16]	18 Jan 2003	?	?	48.3 50	42.2 44	7.8 8	–	6.1
Demoscopia/CEIM[p 17]	18–25 Oct 2002	2,471	?	49.5	39.2	5.7	3.5	10.3
CIS[p 18][p 19][p 20]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	808	70.1	47.1	37.9	7.7	–	9.2
Opina/El País[p 21][p 22]	29 Sep 2002	?	?	48.0	44.0	5.5	–	4.0
Ipsos–Eco/ABC[p 23]	6–13 Sep 2002	2,010	?	47.9 50	39.2 44	7.7 8	–	8.7
Demoscopia/CEIM[p 24]	27 Aug–10 Sep 2001	1,800	?	50.9 54/55	37.7 39/40	8.4 7/8	–	13.2
Inner Line/PSOE[p 25][p 26]	5 May–17 Jun 2001	2,100	?	46.0 49	41.0 43	10.0 10	–	5.0
2000 general election	12 Mar 2000	—N/a	72.1	52.5 (57)	33.1 (36)	9.1 (9)	0.8 (0)	19.4
1999 regional election	13 Jun 1999	—N/a	60.9	51.1 55	36.4 39	7.7 8	0.7 0	14.7

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Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				?	N	Lead
May 2003 regional election[a]	25 May 2003	—N/a	31.9	27.4	5.2	—N/a	29.0	4.5
CIS[p 12]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	1,190	26.2	25.4	6.6	28.2	7.0	0.8
Sondaxe/La Voz de Galicia[p 16]	18 Jan 2003	?	26.4	23.6	3.8	–	–	2.8
CIS[p 18]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	808	25.4	24.5	6.3	26.7	11.0	0.9
2000 general election[a]	12 Mar 2000	—N/a	38.4	24.1	6.7	—N/a	26.6	14.3
1999 regional election[a]	13 Jun 1999	—N/a	31.0	22.1	4.7	—N/a	38.1	8.9

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Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None	?	Lead
Opina/Cadena SER[p 8]	11 May 2003	?	36.2	29.6	5.1	5.5	23.6	6.6
CIS[p 12]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	1,190	34.2	34.5	7.9	6.2	17.1	0.3
Ipsos–Eco/ABC[p 14]	22–24 Apr 2003	?	35.3	38.3	7.3	2.8	16.3	3.0

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Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None	?	Lead
Opina/Cadena SER[p 8]	11 May 2003	?	49.4	19.4	0.6	0.6	29.9	30.0
CIS[p 12]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	1,190	42.4	26.9	0.0	0.3	30.6	15.5
Ipsos–Eco/ABC[p 14]	22–24 Apr 2003	?	49.9	28.9	–	1.6	19.6	21.0
Ipsos–Eco/ABC[p 23]	6–13 Sep 2002	2,010	56.3	13.7	–	0.9	29.2	42.6

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Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Community of Madrid.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Aguirre PP	Simancas PSOE	Fernández IUCM
Opina/Cadena SER[p 8]	11 May 2003	?	34.0	24.1	3.7	2.2	36.1	9.9
Vox Pública/El Periódico[p 11]	28 Apr 2003	805	36.0	25.8	–	38.2		10.2
CIS[p 12]	22 Mar–28 Apr 2003	1,190	23.0	23.9	3.9	15.5	33.5	0.9

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Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president.

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size				Other/ None/ Not care	?	Lead
			Aguirre PP	Simancas PSOE	Fernández IUCM
Opina/Cadena SER[p 8]	11 May 2003	?	43.4	19.2	0.8	1.0	35.5	24.2
Vox Pública/El Periódico[p 11]	28 Apr 2003	805	43.5	20.7	–	35.8		22.8

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Overall

More information Parties and alliances, Popular vote ...

← Summary of the 25 May 2003 Assembly of Madrid election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	1,429,890	46.67	−4.40	55	±0
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	1,225,390	39.99	+3.56	47	+8
	United Left of the Community of Madrid (IUCM)	235,428	7.68	−0.01	9	+1
	The Greens (LV)	42,322	1.38	+0.69	0	±0
	The Greens of the Community of Madrid (LVCM)	28,207	0.92	New	0	±0
	Democratic and Social Centre (CDS)	6,696	0.22	−0.10	0	±0
	The Phalanx (FE)	4,047	0.13	−0.02	0	±0
	Family and Life Party (PFyV)	3,994	0.13	New	0	±0
	Spanish Democratic Party (PADE)	3,533	0.12	+0.02	0	±0
	National Democracy (DN)	3,285	0.11	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	2,491	0.08	−0.04	0	±0
	Independent Spanish Phalanx–Phalanx 2000 (FEI–FE 2000)	2,448	0.08	−0.01	0	±0
	Republican Left (IR)	2,342	0.08	New	0	±0
	Party Association of Widows and Legal Wives (PAVIEL)	2,210	0.07	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	2,172	0.07	−0.03	0	±0
	Madrilenian Independent Regional Party (PRIM)	2,096	0.07	−0.01	0	±0
	Citizen Unity (UC)	1,943	0.06	−0.01	0	±0
	Commoners' Land–Castilian Nationalist Party (TC–PNC)	1,776	0.06	New	0	±0
	Another Democracy is Possible (ODeP)	1,749	0.06	New	0	±0
	Castilian Left (IzCa)	1,119	0.04	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		60,942	1.99	−0.11
Total		3,064,080			111	+9
Valid votes		3,064,080	99.55	+0.04
Invalid votes		13,972	0.45	−0.04
Votes cast / turnout		3,078,052	69.27	+8.39
Abstentions		1,365,481	30.73	−8.39
Registered voters		4,443,533
Sources[12][23]

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Elected legislators

The following table lists the elected legislators sorted by order of election:^[23]

Reactions

Election results saw the People's Party (PP) remaining the largest political party but one seat short of an overall majority, with the combined left-wing bloc of the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and United Left (IU) securing a combined 56 out of 111 seats.^[24] Both left-wing parties were favourable to an alliance that ousted the PP from the regional government,^[25] immediately starting negotiations to secure the investiture of regional PSOE leader Rafael Simancas as new president.^[26] Talks through late May and early June were positive,^[27][28] with the issue of IU joining a coalition government with the PSOE being discussed.^[29][30][31]

Tamayazo scandal

Upon the Assembly's reconvening on 10 June, the unexpected absence of two PSOE deputies—Eduardo Tamayo and María Teresa Sáez, aligned to the internal "grassroots reformers" faction (English for renovadores por la base)^[32]—resulted in the PP outnumbering the left-wing bloc 55 to 54, leading to the election of a PP speaker as well as a PP-leaning bureau.^[33][34] Both Tamayo and Sáez attributed their action (which resulted in their party expelling them and demanding that they hand over their seats)^[35] to disagreements with the PSOE–IU alliance to rule the region.^[36][37] The PSOE and IU pointed at such move being motivated out of "economic and urban interests" instead,^[38][39] and hinted at an alleged bribing aimed at preventing a left-wing government in Madrid.^[40]

More information Ballot →, 10 June 2003 ...

Election of the President of the Assembly of Madrid
Ballot →		10 June 2003		10 June 2003
Required majority →		56 out of 111		Simple
	Concepción Dancausa (PP)	55 / 111	N	55 / 111	Y
	Francisco Cabaco (PSOE)	54 / 111	N	1 / 111	N
	Blank ballots	0 / 111		53 / 111
	Invalid ballots	0 / 111		0 / 111
	Absentees	2 / 111		2 / 111
Sources[12][33]

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Following the Assembly's constitution, the new speaker, Concepción Dancausa, began a round of talks with the parliamentary groups in order to nominate a candidate to the regional presidency.^[41] PP leaders rejected all accusations of foul play and asserted that their party, while ready to assume power, would not try to negotiate any prospective investiture of their candidate—Esperanza Aguirre—with the two PSOE defectors,^[42][43] while proposing an immediate election repeat to resolve the gridlock (though this clashed with the legal two-month period requirement since a first failed investiture vote).^[44][45] The PSOE insisted on attempting Simancas's investiture at some point, hoping to secure the resignation of Tamayo and Sáez so that they could be replaced by the successive candidates in the electoral list, but initially backed down from risking a failed vote.^[46][47]

The deadline for candidate nomination was 27 June, after which a candidate had to be proposed and an investiture debate be held by 2 July.^[45][48] While Simancas rejected accepting the defectors' votes to be elected,^[49] he voluntarily accepted being nominated for investiture in order to "gain time" and thwart the PP's intention to immediately dissolve the Assembly.^[50] Both defectors notified Dancausa that they would attend the Assembly and support Simancas's election,^[51] prompting the Speaker to schedule the investiture debate and vote for 27–28 June with Simancas as candidate.^[52] During the investiture session, Simancas publicly condemned the defectors' actions as political corruption.^[53] Both Tamayo and Sáez ultimately chose to abstain, as some PSOE deputies had planned to change their vote if the defectors supported Simancas's investiture.^[54]

More information Ballot →, 28 June 2003 ...

Investiture Nomination of Rafael Simancas (PSOE)
Ballot →		28 June 2003	30 June 2003
Required majority →		56 out of 111 N	Simple N
	Yes • PSOE (45) • IUCM (9)	54 / 111	54 / 111
	No • PP (55)	55 / 111	55 / 111
	Abstentions • Independents (2)	2 / 111	2 / 111
	Absentees	0 / 111	0 / 111
Sources[12][54][55]

Close

After the investiture's failure and a parliamentary committee set up during the summer to investigate the causes of the defection—which ultimately led to a new gridlock, as both Tamayo and Sáez remained kingmakers^[56]—the Assembly was dissolved on 30 August and a new regional election was called for 26 October.^[57]