1991 Ukrainian independence referendum

By region

The Act of Independence was supported by a majority of participating voters in each of the 27 administrative regions of Ukraine: 24 oblasts, 1 autonomous republic, and 2 special municipalities (Kyiv City and Sevastopol City).^[4] Voter turnout was lowest in Eastern and Southern Ukraine.^[17] The six regions with the lowest percentage of "yes" votes were Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Odesa Oblasts, Crimea, and Sevastopol; all of those regions still had a majority of registered voters marking their ballots "yes", except for Crimea and Sevastopol.

Preliminary results

Although counting was ongoing throughout the night, by 2 December afternoon, exitpolls and early results were already indicating about a 75% lead in favour of independence, according to both electoral officials and leaders of the pro-independence People's Movement of Ukraine (Rukh).^[22] Preliminary results published by the Central Election Commission of Ukraine even indicated about 85% support for "Yes".^[23][24] Later that day, in his role as President of the Verkhovna Rada, Kravchuk announced that about 90% of the Ukrainian population had chosen an independent state.^[25] Shortly thereafter, preliminary results also indicated that Kravchuk had won the presidential election, although with a smaller majority of about 60%.^[25] His main opponent Chornovil had scored above 25%, especially in Western Ukraine (77% in Lviv Oblast, his home region), more than the 15% which opinion polls had predicted he would receive.^[23] Commentators suggested that this would compel Kravchuk to take the demands of Chornovil's supporters and Rukh's platform of a clean political and economic break from the Soviet Union more seriously than the more moderate approach Kravchuk himself had campaigned for.^[23]

Gorbachev, Kravchuk and Yeltsin

Ahead of the vote, Mikhail Gorbachev frequently argued that Ukraine leaving the Soviet Union without signing the New Union Treaty and joining his envisioned Union of Sovereign States would be a disaster for the whole country, for Europe and the whole world.^[22][24] In TASS, he spoke of 'self-determination with the union', and that 'a breakup would cost us dearly' and 'spill over in into territorial disputes'.^[22] However, in a later phone call to U.S. president Bush sr., Gorbachev argued that he would not view Ukraine voting for independence as necessarily breaking away from the (new) union.^[22][23]

In response to the preliminary results announced in the latter half of 2 December, Kravchuk (now the likely President-elect of Ukraine) repeated his earlier statement that he would not sign Gorbachev's New Union Treaty; he no longer trusted such vertical partnerships, only horizontal partnerships 'like the European Community'.^[22][24]

Ukraine has become an independent state. That means that the process to form a new union has come to an end.

While Gorbachev's spokesperson suggested on 2 December that Ukraine's new-found independence might make it even easier to join a renewed union,^[25] and Gorbachev was one of the first to congratulate Kravchuk on winning the presidential election that same day, in the morning of 3 December, he warned that the secession of Ukraine might lead to war and "a catastrophe for the world".^[24]

Boris Yeltsin, who was still negotiating with Gorbachev and other Soviet leaders about the New Union Treaty,^[23] indicated before the referendum that he could not envision a new union without Ukraine.^[22] He said repeatedly it would be regrettable if Ukraine quit the union, but in an interview in Izvestiya in the week before the referendum, Yeltsin announced that if it did, Russia would not sign the New Union Treaty either.^[25] If Ukraine would also reject any economic agreements with the other (post-)Soviet republics, as advocated by Chornovil, Yeltsin stated he would henceforth calculate oil and gas deliveries to Ukraine in U.S. dollars instead of the cheaper Soviet ruble as a countermeasure.^[23] Unlike Chornovil, Kravchuk still found it important to conclude an economic agreement (perhaps similar to the European Community) with the other (post-)Soviet republics, particularly Russia and Belarus, as long as it was headquartered in Kyiv or Minsk, not in Moscow.^[25] Vermont-based Russian nationalist writer Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn was advocating for partitioning Ukraine along voting lines, saying districts with a majority of "No" voters (presumably with a Russian-speaking majority) should be transferred to the Russian Federation instead.^[24] This idea lost realistic credibility as soon as it became clear that the majority of all oblasts, including with Russian-speaking majorities in some cities, had voted overwhelmingly in favour of independence, even with a slight majority in Crimea.^[24] Yeltsin immediately recognised Ukraine's independence in a statement on 2 December 1991, saying he was going to seek out how Russia could establish diplomatic ties with Ukraine as soon as possible.^[24]

Europe and North America

Most individual countries in Europe and around the world were quick to respond positively to the preliminary results of the referendum, with Poland and Canada immediately recognising Ukraine's independence diplomatically, and Sweden and Czechoslovakia announcing that they were planning to.^[26] For their part, the Foreign Ministers of the European Community, who were gathered in Brussels on 2 December, called on Ukraine to continue to abide by all OSCE obligations which the Soviet Union had previously committed to, including arms control, non-proliferation, and foreign debt.^[26] If the Ukrainian government could clarify its future policies, recognition could be discussed, the European Community stated.^[25] Bush sr. congratulated Kravchuk with his victory, as well as the "free and fair" manner in which the referendum was held.^[26] He would send his assistant Thomas M. T. Niles to establish diplomatic ties with Ukraine, and discuss with the Ukrainian government how to handle human rights, minority rights, and Ukraine's responsibility in conventional and nuclear arms control.^[26] Similar to Europe's cautious approach, America's attitude towards Ukrainian independence was to first clarify Kyiv's policies in these domains before Washington could proceed to diplomatic recognition.^[25]

Public opinion

On referendum day, a journalist of De Volkskrant could not find anyone in Kyiv ("apart from one Russian soldier") who was opposed to Ukrainian independence: "Young and old, Russian, Ukrainian, Jew, they wholeheartedly agree with the idea that Ukraine secedes from the Union, and liberates itself from Moscow's urge to boss people about."^[27] Unlike in the three Baltic republics, where independence was framed as a national struggle and achieving it was hailed with euphoria, national pride was a secondary motivation for Ukrainian independence, with most people citing economic arguments as their primary reasons for voting "Yes".^[27] There were no large-scale celebrations, but people found that they were making the rational choice under the circumstances, and were glad that it was done.^[27] Above all, they favoured good, normal, and equal relations with Russia outside the Union, rather than paying Moscow and not receiving anything in return (not even Western food and medicine disaster relief for the Chornobyl disaster), and having to undergo the Russification of Ukraine and the suppression of the Ukrainian language for no good reason.^[27]