2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa
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The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the state's four U.S. representatives. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election. Primary elections were held on June 5, 2012.[1]
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November 6, 2012
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All 4 Iowa seats to the United States House of Representatives | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The new congressional map, drawn by the state's Legislative Services Agency and passed with bipartisan support in the state House of Representatives and Senate, was signed into law by Governor Terry Branstad on April 19, 2011. Reflecting population shifts recorded in the 2010 United States census, the new map decreases Iowa's representation from five congressional districts to four.[2]
Overview
| United States House of Representatives elections in Iowa, 2012 [3] | ||||||
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| Party | Votes | Percentage | Seats before | Seats after | +/– | |
| Democratic | 772,387 | 50.26% | 3 | 2 | -1 | |
| Republican | 726,505 | 47.27% | 2 | 2 | - | |
| Socialist Workers | 6,286 | 0.41% | - | |||
| Independent | 30,291 | 1.97% | - | |||
| Write-In | 1,380 | 0.09% | - | |||
| Totals | 1,536,849 | 100% | 5 | 4 | -1 | |
District 1
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 County results Braley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Lange: 40–50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Bruce Braley, a Democrat the incumbent representative from the 1st district in northeastern Iowa since 2007, ran in the new 1st district. Fellow incumbent Dave Loebsack, who lived within the boundaries of the new 1st district in Linn County, but who had represented southeastern Iowa's 2nd district since 2007, moved to Johnson County and ran in the new 2nd district.[4] The 1st district has become more favorable to Democrats with the inclusion of Linn County and its loss of Scott County.[5] Braley won the Democratic nomination unopposed.[6]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Bruce Braley, incumbent U.S. Representative
Declined
- Dave Loebsack, incumbent U.S. Representative for the 2nd district
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bruce Braley (incumbent) | 11,912 | 99.2 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 92 | 0.8 | |
| Total votes | 12,004 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ben Lange | 13,217 | 52.9 | |
| Republican | Rod Blum | 11,551 | 46.2 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 143 | 0.9 | |
| Total votes | 24,991 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Endorsements
Organizations
- National Republican Congressional Committee "Young Guns" Program[11]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg[13] | Safe D | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call[14] | Safe D | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times[16] | Safe D | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP[17] | Likely D | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill[18] | Likely D | November 4, 2012 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bruce Braley (incumbent) | 222,422 | 56.9 | |
| Republican | Ben Lange | 162,465 | 41.6 | |
| Independent | Gregory Hughes | 4,772 | 1.2 | |
| Independent | George Todd Krail II | 931 | 0.2 | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 259 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 390,849 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
District 2
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 County results Loebsack: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% Archer: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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None of Iowa's current members of Congress resided in the newly drawn 2nd district; however, Democrat Dave Loebsack moved from Linn County to Johnson County in order to avoid a primary against Bruce Braley and continue representing southeastern Iowa.[4] The 2nd district became slightly more favorable to Republicans as a result of the inclusion of Scott County, but retains Democratic-leaning Johnson County.[5]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Dave Loebsack, incumbent U.S. Representative
Eliminated in primary
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Dave Loebsack (incumbent) | 17,467 | 81.5 | |
| Democratic | Joe M. Seng | 3,913 | 18.3 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 39 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 21,419 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- John Archer, senior legal counsel at John Deere[20]
Eliminated in primary
- Dan Dolan, housing developer[21]
Withdrew
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Archer | 16,604 | 60.5 | |
| Republican | Dan Dolan | 10,775 | 39.3 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 57 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 27,436 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Endorsements
Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Frontline" Program[23]
Organizations
- National Republican Congressional Committee "Young Guns" Program[11]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Dave Loebsack (D) |
John Archer (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance (R-Archer)[24] | June 25–27, 2012 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 48% | 43% | 10% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg[13] | Likely D | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call[14] | Likely D | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times[16] | Safe D | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP[17] | Likely D | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill[18] | Lean D | November 4, 2012 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Dave Loebsack (incumbent) | 211,863 | 55.6 | |
| Republican | John Archer | 161,977 | 42.5 | |
| Independent | Alan Aversa | 7,112 | 1.8 | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 323 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 381,275 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
District 3
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 County results Latham: 50–60% 60–70% Boswell: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Leonard Boswell, a Democrat who represented the 3rd district in central Iowa since 1997, and Tom Latham, a Republican who represented the 4th district in northern and central Iowa since 1995, both ran in the new 3rd district.[25] Latham, who lived in the new 4th district, moved south to avoid facing fellow Republican Steve King in a primary.[26]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Leonard Boswell, incumbent U.S. Representative
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Leonard Boswell (incumbent) | 8,382 | 98.3 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 145 | 1.7 | |
| Total votes | 8,527 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Tom Latham, incumbent U.S. Representative
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Latham (incumbent) | 27,757 | 99.2 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 218 | 0.8 | |
| Total votes | 27,975 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Campaign
Approximately half of the new 3rd district was at the time represented by Boswell, whereas the new 3rd district contained than 20 per cent of the area currently represented by Latham. However, Latham had $983,500 cash on hand at the end of March 2011, whereas Boswell had just $173,815.
Endorsements
Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Frontline" Program[23]
Organizations
- National Republican Congressional Committee "Patriot" Program[27]
Debate
The first debate was held October 10, 2012 at 7 pm, sponsored by KCCI and the Des Moines Register.[28]
| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
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| Leonard Boswell | Tom Latham | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 10, 2012 | The Des Moines Register KCCI |
Kevin Cooney Kathy Obradovich |
C-SPAN | P | P |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Leonard Boswell (D) |
Tom Latham (R) |
Scott Batcher (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benenson (D-DCCC)[29] | September 18–20, 2012 | 400 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 45% | 7% | 3% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg[13] | Tilt R (flip) | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call[14] | Tossup | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times[16] | Tossup | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP[17] | Tossup | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill[18] | Tossup | November 4, 2012 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Latham (incumbent) | 202,000 | 52.2 | |
| Democratic | Leonard Boswell (incumbent) | 168,632 | 43.6 | |
| Independent | Scott G. Batcher | 9,352 | 2.4 | |
| Socialist Workers | David Rosenfeld | 6,286 | 1.6 | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 572 | 0.2 | |
| Total votes | 386,842 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | ||||
District 4
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 County results King: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Vilsack: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Steve King, a Republican represented western Iowa's 5th district since 2003, ran in the new 4th district. The new 4th district comprises mostly territory which King represented and which tends to vote for Republican candidates.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Steve King, incumbent U.S. Representative
Declined
- Tom Latham, incumbent U.S. Representative for the 4th district
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve King (incumbent) | 38,238 | 98.9 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 420 | 1.1 | |
| Total votes | 38,658 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
Primary results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Christie Vilsack | 10,765 | 99.2 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 88 | 0.8 | |
| Total votes | 10,853 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
Martin James Monroe also ran.
General election
Endorsements
Organizations
- Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program[31]
- EMILY's List[32]
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 27, 2012
- Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Steve King (R) |
Christie Vilsack (D) |
Martin Monroe (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D-CREDO)[33] | September 24–25, 2012 | 577 (LV) | ± % | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D-Vilsack)[34] | September 22–25, 2012 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 44% | 4% | 6% |
| American Viewpoint (R-American Future Fund)[35] | September 23–24, 2012 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 41% | — | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D-House Majority PAC)[36] | January 18–23, 2012 | 974 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 43% | — | 8% |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg[13] | Tilts R | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call[14] | Lean R | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Lean R | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times[16] | Lean R | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP[17] | Tossup | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill[18] | Lean R | November 4, 2012 |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Steve King (incumbent) | 200,063 | 52.9 | |
| Democratic | Christie Vilsack | 169,470 | 44.9 | |
| Independent | Martin James Monroe | 8,124 | 2.1 | |
| n/a | Write-ins | 226 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 377,883 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||