2012 United States Senate election in Florida
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2012 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the House and Senate, as well as various state and local elections. The primary election was held August 14, 2012. Incumbent Senator Bill Nelson won reelection to a third term, defeating Republican U.S. Representative Connie Mack IV (whose father, Connie Mack III, was Nelson's direct predecessor in that Senate seat) by 13%, winning 55% to 42%. Nelson defeated Mack by over 1 million votes.
 | |||||||||||||||||
November 6, 2012
| |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 63.5% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
  Mack: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
_(cropped).jpg)
Until Donald Trump won 4.6 million votes in the 2016 presidential election and Marco Rubio won 4.8 million votes in the 2016 Senate election, Nelson recorded the most votes in Florida history. As of 2024[update], this was the last time that a Democrat won a U.S. Senate election in Florida. This is also the last time a Democrat carried the following counties in a statewide election: Brevard, Flagler, Franklin, Hamilton, Hendry, Hernando, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Okeechobee, Pasco, Polk, Sarasota, and Volusia.
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Glenn Burkett[3]
- Bill Nelson, incumbent U.S. senator
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bill Nelson (incumbent) | 684,804 | 78.7 | |
| Democratic | Glenn Burkett | 184,815 | 21.3 | |
| Total votes | 869,619 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
Qualified
- Connie Mack IV, U.S. representative from Fort Myers[4][5]
- Mike McCalister, university professor and candidate for Florida governor in 2010[6]
- Marielena Stuart, conservative activist and journalist[7]
- Dave Weldon, former U.S. representative from Indialantic[8]
Withdrew
- Alexander George, businessman, political activist and minister[9]
- Mike Haridopolos, president of the Florida Senate[10]
- Adam Hasner, former Florida House of Representatives majority leader[11] (running for U.S. House of Representatives)[12]
- George LeMieux, former U.S. senator[13]
- Ron Rushing, businessman (running for state senate)[14]
Declined
- Jeff Atwater, chief financial officer of Florida[15]
- Allan Bense, former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives[16]
- Vern Buchanan, U.S. representative[17]
- Jeb Bush, former Florida governor[18]
- Dean Cannon, Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives[19]
- Nicholas M. Loeb, businessman[20]
- Will McBride, attorney and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2006[21]
- Tom Rooney, U.S. representative[22]
- Chris Ruddy, founder and CEO of Newsmax[23]
- Allen West, U.S. representative[24][25]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George LeMieux |
Connie Mack IV |
Mike McCalister |
Dave Weldon |
Someone else |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[26] | May 31 – June 3, 2012 | 448 | ±4.6% | 13% | 34% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 28% |
| Quinnipiac[27] | June 12–18, 2012 | 698 | ±3.7% | 8% | 41% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 39% |
| Public Policy Polling[28] | July 26–29, 2012 | 500 | ±4.4% | — | 47% | 10% | 14% | 6% | 23% |
Endorsements
George LeMieux (withdrawn)
Individuals
- Haley Barbour, former governor of Mississippi[29]
- Herman Cain, businessman and former 2012 presidential candidate [30]
- Fred Costello, state representative[31]
- Paula Dockery[32]
- Nancy Detert, state senator[32]
- Clay Ford, state representative[32]
- Rene Garcia, state senator[31]
- Charles Van Zant, state representative[31]
Connie Mack IV
Individuals
- Pam Bondi, attorney general of Florida[33]
- Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida, brother of President George W. Bush and son of President George H. W. Bush (R-FL)[34]
- Luis Fortuno, governor of Puerto Rico[35]
- Sean Hannity, author and talk show host[36]
- Mike Haridopolos, state senator and Senate president (R-FL)[37]
- Mike Lee, U.S. senator (R-UT)[38]
- Connie Mack III, former U.S. senator (R-FL) and Mack's father[39]
- Mary Bono Mack, U.S. congresswoman (R-CA) and Mack's wife[40]
- Jeff Miller, U.S. representative[41]
- Rand Paul, U.S. senator (R-KY)[42]
- Ron Paul, U.S. congressman and 2012 presidential candidate
- Adam Putnam, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture and former congressman[43]
- Mitt Romney, presumptive nominee of the Republican Party for president of the United States in the 2012 election; former governor of Massachusetts.[44]
- Tom Rooney, U.S. representative[45]
Organizations
Results
Mack
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Weldon
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Connie Mack IV | 657,331 | 58.7 | |
| Republican | Dave Weldon | 226,083 | 20.2 | |
| Republican | Mike McCalister | 155,421 | 13.9 | |
| Republican | Marielena Stuart | 81,808 | 7.3 | |
| Total votes | 1,120,643 | 100.0 | ||
General election
Early in the race, Nelson appeared to be vulnerable, with some earlier polls showing Mack leading. However, in the last few weeks, with new polls conducted, it appeared as though Nelson was headed for a victory. The last poll placed him five percentage points ahead of Mack; Nelson would win easily by 13 percentage points. Nelson performed well in Southeast Florida (the Miami area), Tampa, Gainesville, typically Democratic areas. Nelson, however, managed to win in areas that typically lean Republican. He won in Duval County, home of Jacksonville, and Volusia County, home of Daytona Beach. Nelson's ability to outperform President Obama led to him winning the election easily. Obama would still win Florida, but by just about 74,000 votes, and less than a percentage point. Nelson began his third term in the Senate on January 3, 2013.
Candidates
- Chris Borgia (Independent), Iraq War veteran[47]
- Bill Gaylor (Independent), owner, Bill and Sheila Gaylor Insurance[48]
- Connie Mack IV (Republican), U.S. congressman
- Bill Nelson (Democratic), incumbent U.S. senator
Debates
Only one debate was held, hosted by Leadership Florida/Florida Press Association occurred on October 17 at the Nova Southeastern University campus in Davie.
- Complete video of debate, October 17, 2012 - C-SPAN
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Nelson (D) | $13,404,998 | $15,494,167 | $994,324 | $0 |
| Connie Mack (R) | $7,272,224 | $7,526,150 | $155,076 | $81,880 |
| Chris Borgia (I) | $12,344 | $12,198 | $145 | $9,950 |
| Bill Gaylor (I) | $19,604 | $19,195 | $0 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[49][50][51][52] | ||||
Top contributors
| Bill Nelson | Contribution | Connie Mack | Contribution | Bill Gaylor | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan & Morgan | $138,150 | Club for Growth | $189,168 | Bill & Sheila Gaylor Insurance Professionals | $7,905 |
| Finmeccanica | $71,967 | Elliott Management Corporation | $46,997 | Circle Redmont | $1,432 |
| InDyne, Inc. | $64,735 | Koch Industries | $33,500 | ||
| Harris Corporation | $59,750 | Vestar Capital Partners | $32,000 | ||
| Akerman Senterfitt LLP | $59,300 | Island Doctors | $27,400 | ||
| Greenberg Traurig | $52,589 | Adams & Diaco | $25,000 | ||
| Kindred Healthcare | $21,000 | Health Management Associates | $21,000 | ||
| Holland & Knight | $46,747 | Flo-Sun Inc | $18,500 | ||
| Leon Medical Centers | $45,800 | US Sugar Corporation | $18,000 | ||
| Vestar Capital Partners | $40,650 | MasTec, Inc. | $17,800 | ||
| Source: OpenSecrets[53] | |||||
Top industries
| Bill Nelson | Contribution | Connie Mack | Contribution | Bill Gaylor | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $2,383,484 | Retired | $885,121 | Retired | $1,500 |
| Retired | $938,280 | Republican/Conservative | $412,944 | ||
| Real estate | $606,253 | Financial institutions | $360,334 | ||
| Health professionals | $529,282 | Real estate | $298,642 | ||
| Lobbyists | $493,087 | Leadership PACs | $280,500 | ||
| Financial institutions | $418,915 | Misc. finance | $216,836 | ||
| Hospitals/nursing homes | $364,617 | Health professionals | $199,159 | ||
| Leadership PACs | $337,000 | Lawyers/law firms | $169,921 | ||
| Insurance industry | $319,788 | Petroleum industry | $136,400 | ||
| Health services/HMOs | $276,500 | Business services | $128,777 | ||
| Source: OpenSecrets[54] | |||||
Independent expenditures
In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this election, and three were other Senate elections.[55] In Florida, the money was to be spent by its affiliate, American Crossroads.[55]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[56] | Lean D | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[57] | Likely D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[58] | Likely D | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[59] | Lean D | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Connie Mack IV (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[60] | October 9–10, 2010 | 448 | ±4.6% | 42% | 33% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | December 17–20, 2010 | 1,034 | ±3.0% | 44% | 36% | — | 20% |
| Mason-Dixon[62] | February 9–10, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 45% | 40% | — | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | March 24–27, 2011 | 500 | ±4.4% | 47% | 34% | — | 18% |
| Quinnipiac[64] | October 31 – November 7, 2011 | 1,185 | ±2.9% | 42% | 40% | 1% | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[65] | November 17, 2011 | 500 | ±4.5% | 39% | 43% | 5% | 13% |
| Public Policy Polling[66] | November 28 – December 1, 2011 | 700 | ±3.7% | 46% | 35% | — | 19% |
| Quinnipiac[67] | January 4–8, 2012 | 1,412 | ±2.6% | 41% | 40% | 1% | 16% |
| Suffolk University[68] | January 22–24, 2012 | 600 | ±4.4% | 42% | 32% | 1% | 25% |
| Mason-Dixon[69] | January 24–26, 2012 | 800 | ±3.5% | 45% | 42% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports[70] | February 13, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 41% | 41% | 5% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[71] | March 13, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 36% | 43% | 5% | 16% |
| Quinnipiac[72] | March 20–26, 2012 | 1,228 | ±2.8% | 44% | 36% | 3% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[73] | April 12–15, 2012 | 700 | ±3.7% | 47% | 37% | — | 17% |
| Rasmussen Reports[74] | April 25, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 47% | 36% | 10% | 7% |
| Quinnipiac[75] | May 15–21, 2012 | 1,722 | ±2.4% | 41% | 42% | 3% | 15% |
| Marist[76] | May 17–20, 2012 | 1,078 | ±3.0% | 46% | 42% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | May 31 – June 3, 2012 | 642 | ±3.9% | 49% | 36% | — | 15% |
| Quinnipiac[27] | June 12–18, 2012 | 1,697 | ±2.4% | 43% | 39% | — | 15% |
| Quinnipiac[77] | June 19–25, 2012 | 1,200 | ±2.8% | 41% | 40% | 1% | 17% |
| Rasmussen Reports[74] | July 9, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 37% | 46% | 7% | 10% |
| Mason-Dixon[78] | July 9–11, 2012 | 800 | ±3.5% | 47% | 42% | — | 11% |
| Survey USA[79] | July 17–19, 2012 | 647 | ±3.9% | 42% | 48% | 2% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[28] | July 26–29, 2012 | 871 | ±3.3% | 45% | 43% | — | 13% |
| Quinnipiac[80] | July 24–30, 2012 | 1,177 | ±2.9% | 47% | 40% | 1% | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[74] | August 15, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 47% | 40% | 3% | 10% |
| Quinnipiac[81] | August 15–21, 2012 | 1,241 | ±2.8% | 50% | 41% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[82] | August 31 – September 2, 2012 | 1,548 | ±2.5% | 45% | 38% | — | 17% |
| SurveyUSA[83] | September 7–9, 2012 | 596 | ±4.1% | 47% | 36% | 3% | 9% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[84] | September 9–11, 2012 | 980 | ±3.1% | 51% | 37% | — | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports[74] | September 12, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 47% | 40% | 5% | 8% |
| Fox News Poll[85] | September 16–18, 2012 | 829 | ±3.0% | 49% | 35% | 2% | 12% |
| TBT/Miami Herald[86] | September 17–19, 2012 | 800 | ±3.5% | 48% | 40% | — | 11% |
| Suffolk University[87] | September 27–30, 2012 | 600 | ±4.0% | 40% | 34% | 5% | 20% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[88] | September 30 – October 1, 2012 | 890 | ±3.3% | 52% | 41% | — | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[74] | October 4, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 52% | 41% | 1% | 6% |
| University of North Florida[89] | October 1–9, 2012 | 800 | ±3.5% | 50% | 40% | — | 10% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[90] | October 7–9, 2012 | 988 | ±3.1% | 52% | 39% | — | 9% |
| TBT/Miami Herald[91] | October 8–10, 2012 | 800 | ±3.5% | 47% | 42% | 4% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports[74] | October 11, 2012 | 750 | ±4.0% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling[92] | October 12–14, 2012 | 791 | ±3.4% | 45% | 37% | — | 18% |
| SurveyUSA[93] | October 17–18, 2012 | 600 | ±4.1% | 48% | 40% | 4% | 8% |
| Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers/WPTV[94] | October 17–18, 2012 | 800 | ±4.0% | 45% | 41% | — | 14% |
| Rasmussen Reports[74] | October 18, 2012 | 750 | ±4.0% | 48% | 43% | 2% | 7% |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion[95] | October 18–20, 2012 | 502 | ±4.5% | 56% | 39% | 4% | — |
| Pharos Research[96] | October 19–21, 2012 | 759 | ±3.6% | 52% | 44% | — | 5% |
| Sunshine State News/VSS[97] | October 22–24, 2012 | 1,001 | ±3.1% | 49% | 44% | — | 7% |
| Mason-Dixon[98] | October 22–24, 2012 | 625 | ±4.0% | 47% | 44% | — | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports[74] | October 25, 2012 | 750 | ±4.0% | 49% | 46% | 2% | 3% |
| WFLA-TV/SurveyUSA[99] | October 25–27, 2012 | 595 | ±4.1% | 48% | 41% | 4% | 7% |
| CBS/Quinnipiac University[100] | October 23–28, 2012 | 1,073 | ±3.0% | 52% | 39% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[101] | October 26–28, 2012 | 687 | ±3.7% | 50% | 42% | — | 9% |
| Zogby/Newsmax[102] | October 26–28, 2012 | 827 | ±3.5% | 50% | 41% | — | 9% |
| Zogby/Newsmax[103] | October 27–29, 2012 | 828 | ±3.5% | 50% | 41% | — | 9% |
| Gravis Marketing[104] | October 30, 2012 | 549 | ±4.2% | 49% | 46% | — | 5% |
| Reuters/Ipsos[105] | October 29–31, 2012 | 716 | ±4.2% | 52% | 42% | 1% | 6% |
| NBC/WSJ/Marist[106] | October 30 – November 1, 2012 | 1,545 | ±2.5% | 52% | 43% | 1% | 5% |
| Mason-Dixon[107] | October 30 – November 1, 2012 | 800 | ±3.5% | 49% | 43% | 4% | — |
| Angus Reid Public Opinion[108] | November 1–3, 2012 | 525 | ±4.3% | 53% | 45% | 2% | — |
| Public Policy Polling[109] | November 3–4, 2012 | 955 | ±3.2% | 51% | 46% | — | 3% |
Hypothetical polling
Republican primary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Adam Hasner |
George LeMieux |
Connie Mack IV |
Mike McCalister |
Craig Miller |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac[110] | July 27 – August 2, 2011 | 510 | ±4.3% | 6% | 12% | — | 15% | 8% | 60% |
| Quinnipiac[111] | September 14–19, 2011 | 374 | ±5.1% | 5% | 17% | — | 5% | 11% | 62% |
| Public Policy Polling[112] | September 22–25, 2011 | 472 | ±4.5% | 9% | 13% | — | 17% | 3% | 58% |
| Quinnipiac[64] | October 31 – November 7, 2011 | 513 | ±4.3% | 2% | 9% | 32% | 6% | 2% | 51% |
| Public Policy Polling[113] | November 28–30, 2011 | 470 | ±4.5% | 3% | 12% | 40% | 4% | 3% | 38% |
| Dixie Strategies/First Coast News[114] | January 23–25, 2012 | 2,567 | ±1.93% | 3.81% | 6.91% | 28.88% | 3.36% | 1.78% | 55.26% |
| Mason-Dixon[69] | January 24–26, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 4% | 12% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 38% |
| Miami Herald/War Room Logistics[115] | January 27, 2012 | 1,632 | ±2.5% | 2.7% | 6.2% | 33.0% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 52.6% |
| Public Policy Polling[116] | January 28, 2012 | 387 | ±5.0% | 4% | 6% | 36% | 5% | 3% | 46% |
| Public Policy Polling[117] | January 28–29, 2012 | 733 | ±3.6% | 4% | 8% | 36% | 5% | 3% | 44% |
| Public Policy Polling[118] | January 28–30, 2012 | 1,087 | ±3% | 3% | 8% | 39% | 4% | 3% | 42% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Haridopolos |
Adam Hasner |
George LeMieux |
Mike McCalister |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunshine State Communications[119] | May 12–13, 2011 | 458 | ±4.58% | 11% | 0% | 9% | 4% | 64% |
| Quinnipiac[120] | May 17–23, 2011 | 463 | ±4.6% | 13% | 4% | 14% | — | 64% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Vern Buchanan |
Jennifer Carroll |
Mike Haridopolos |
Adam Hasner |
George LeMieux |
Nick Loeb |
Will McBride |
Mike McCalister |
Joe Scarborough |
Daniel Webster |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University/7 News[121] | April 10–12, 2011 | 217 | ±4% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 6% | 7% | 67% |
General election
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Vern Buchanan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[122] | August 18–22, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 45% | 35% | — | 20% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Jeb Bush (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[123] | July 16–18, 2010 | 900 | ±3.26% | 46% | 44% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | December 17–20, 2010 | 1,034 | ±3.0% | 44% | 49% | — | 7% |
| Mason-Dixon[62] | February 9–10, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 41% | 49% | — | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Mike Haridopolos (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[61] | December 17–20, 2010 | 1,034 | ±3.0% | 44% | 32% | — | 24% |
| Mason-Dixon[62] | February 9–10, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 48% | 27% | — | 25% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | March 24–27, 2011 | 500 | ±4.4% | 50% | 34% | — | 17% |
| Quinnipiac[120] | May 17–23, 2011 | 1,196 | ±2.8% | 47% | 26% | 2% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[124] | June 16–19, 2011 | 848 | ±3.4% | 47% | 35% | — | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Adam Hasner (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[61] | December 17–20, 2010 | 1,034 | ±3.0% | 46% | 30% | — | 25% |
| Mason-Dixon[62] | February 9–10, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 46% | 24% | — | 30% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | March 24–27, 2011 | 500 | ±4.4% | 48% | 32% | — | 20% |
| Quinnipiac[120] | May 17–23, 2011 | 1,196 | ±2.8% | 48% | 23% | 3% | 24% |
| Public Policy Polling[124] | June 16–19, 2011 | 848 | ±3.4% | 47% | 35% | — | 19% |
| Mason-Dixon[122] | August 18–22, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 45% | 34% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling[125] | September 22–25, 2011 | 476 | ±4.5% | 49% | 35% | — | 16% |
| Rasmussen Reports[65] | November 17, 2011 | 500 | ±4.5% | 40% | 31% | 9% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[66] | November 28 – December 1, 2011 | 700 | ±3.7% | 48% | 33% | — | 19% |
| Suffolk University[68] | January 22–24, 2012 | 600 | ±4.4% | 47% | 23% | 2% | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
George LeMieux (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[123] | July 16–18, 2010 | 900 | ±3.26% | 49% | 28% | — | 23% |
| Public Policy Polling[61] | December 17–20, 2010 | 1,034 | ±3.0% | 47% | 36% | — | 17% |
| Mason-Dixon[62] | February 9–10, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 49% | 35% | — | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling[63] | March 24–27, 2011 | 500 | ±4.4% | 48% | 33% | — | 19% |
| Quinnipiac[120] | May 17–23, 2011 | 1,196 | ±2.8% | 47% | 27% | 2% | 22% |
| Public Policy Polling[124] | June 16–19, 2011 | 848 | ±3.4% | 46% | 35% | — | 19% |
| Mason-Dixon[122] | August 18–22, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 49% | 34% | — | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[125] | September 22–25, 2011 | 476 | ±4.5% | 49% | 35% | — | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports[65] | November 17, 2011 | 500 | ±4.5% | 39% | 33% | 10% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[66] | November 28 – December 1, 2011 | 700 | ±3.7% | 47% | 32% | — | 20% |
| Suffolk University[68] | January 22–24, 2012 | 600 | ±4.4% | 46% | 22% | 2% | 30% |
| Mason-Dixon[69] | January 24–26, 2012 | 800 | ±3.5% | 48% | 33% | — | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[70] | February 13, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 45% | 35% | 5% | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports[71] | March 13, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 41% | 38% | 5% | 17% |
| Public Policy Polling[73] | April 12–15, 2012 | 700 | ±3.7% | 48% | 34% | — | 18% |
| Rasmussen Reports[74] | April 25, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 44% | 30% | 9% | 17% |
| Marist[76] | May 17–20, 2012 | 1,078 | ±3% | 46% | 42% | — | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | May 31 – June 3, 2012 | 642 | ±3.9% | 48% | 35% | — | 17% |
| Quinnipiac[27] | June 12–18, 2012 | 1,697 | ±2.4% | 47% | 32% | 1% | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Rush Limbaugh (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[60] | October 9–10, 2010 | 448 | ±4.6% | 50% | 36% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Mike McCalister (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[28] | July 26–29, 2012 | 871 | ±3.3% | 45% | 40% | — | 15% |
| Quinnipiac[27] | June 12–18, 2012 | 1,697 | ±2.4% | 45% | 34% | 1% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | May 31 – June 3, 2012 | 642 | ±3.9% | 47% | 33% | — | 20% |
| Rasmussen Reports[74] | April 25, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 48% | 29% | 7% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling[73] | April 12–15, 2012 | 700 | ±3.7% | 47% | 35% | — | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports[71] | March 13, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 42% | 38% | 4% | 15% |
| Rasmussen Reports[70] | February 13, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 43% | 37% | 5% | 15% |
| Suffolk University[68] | January 22–24, 2012 | 600 | ±4.4% | 45% | 26% | 2% | 28% |
| Public Policy Polling[66] | November 28 – December 1, 2011 | 700 | ±3.7% | 47% | 32% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling[125] | September 22–25, 2011 | 476 | ±4.5% | 47% | 34% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Craig Miller (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[66] | November 28 – December 1, 2011 | 700 | ±3.7% | 49% | 30% | — | 21% |
| Public Policy Polling[125] | September 22–25, 2011 | 476 | ±4.5% | 49% | 32% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Joe Scarborough (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | March 24–27, 2011 | 500 | ±4.4% | 45% | 32% | — | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Jimmy Wales (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[63] | March 24–27, 2011 | 500 | ±4.4% | 47% | 28% | — | 25% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Dave Weldon (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling[28] | July 26–29, 2012 | 871 | ±3.3% | 46% | 39% | — | 15% |
| Quinnipiac[27] | June 12–18, 2012 | 1,697 | ±2.4% | 47% | 31% | 1% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling[26] | May 31 – June 3, 2012 | 642 | ±3.9% | 47% | 31% | — | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bill Nelson (D) |
Allen West (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[122] | August 18–22, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 44% | 38% | — | 18% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Bill Nelson (incumbent) | 4,523,451 | 55.23% | −5.07% | |
| Republican | Connie Mack IV | 3,458,267 | 42.23% | +4.13% | |
| Independent | Bill Gaylor | 126,079 | 1.54% | N/A | |
| Independent | Chris Borgia | 82,089 | 1.00% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 60 | 0.0 | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 8,189,946 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Calhoun (largest city: Blountstown)
- Citrus (largest city: Homosassa Springs)
- Dixie (largest city: Cross City)
- Gilchrist (largest city: Trenton)
- Glades (largest city: Moore Haven)
- Gulf (largest city: Port St. Joe)
- Levy (largest city: Williston)
- Putnam (largest city: Palatka)
- Sumter (largest city: The Villages)
- Taylor (largest city: Perry)
- Wakulla (largest city: Sopchoppy)
- Jackson (largest city: Marianna)
- Bradford (largest city: Starke)
- Charlotte (largest city: Charlotte)
- Columbia (largest city: Lake City)
- DeSoto (largest city: Arcadia)
- Escambia (largest city: Pensacola)
- Hardee (largest city: Wachula)
- Highlands (largest city: Sebring)
- Indian River (largest city: Sebastian)
- Lafayette (largest city: Mayo)
- Lake (largest city: Clermont)
- Lee (largest city: Cape Coral)
- Suwannee (largest city: Live Oak)
- Union (largest city: Lake Butler)
- Washington (largest city: Chipley)
By congressional district
Nelson won 20 of 27 congressional districts, including ten that elected Republicans.[127]