2006 United States Senate election in Minnesota
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The 2006 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 7, 2006. Incumbent Senator Mark Dayton announced in February 2005 that he would retire instead of seeking a second term. Fellow Democrat Amy Klobuchar won the open seat by 20.1 percentage points. Primary elections took place on September 12, 2006.
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November 7, 2006
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  Klobuchar: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kennedy: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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DFL primary
Candidates
- Amy Klobuchar, Hennepin County Attorney
- Darryl Stanton, businessman
Withdrew
- Patty Wetterling, children's safety advocate and candidate for U.S. House in 2004
Campaign
Klobuchar gained the early endorsement of the majority of DFL state legislators in Minnesota. A poll taken of DFL state delegates showed Klobuchar beating her then closest opponent, Patty Wetterling, 66% to 15%. As of June 30, 2005, Klobuchar had more cash on hand than any other candidate, nearly $1,100,000.
Klobuchar was endorsed by EMILY's List on September 29, 2005. On January 20, 2006, Wetterling dropped out of the race and endorsed Klobuchar.[1]
Former Senate candidate and prominent lawyer Mike Ciresi, who was widely seen as the only other serious potential DFL candidate, indicated on February 7, 2006, that he would not enter the race. That removal of her most significant potential competitor for the DFL nomination was viewed as an important boost for Klobuchar.[2]
The only other serious candidate for the DFL endorsement was veterinarian Ford Bell. Bell, a staunch liberal, ran on a platform of implementing single-payer healthcare and immediate withdrawal from Iraq.[3] Klobuchar won the official DFL endorsement on June 9, 2006.[4] Bell dropped out of the race on July 10, citing inability to compete financially, and also endorsed Klobuchar.[3]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Amy Klobuchar | 294,671 | 92.51 | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Darryl Stanton | 23,872 | 7.49 | |
| Total votes | 318,543 | 100.00 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
- Mark Kennedy, U.S. Representative from Minnesota's 6th congressional district
- Harold Shudlick, military veteran
- John Ulrich, military veteran
Campaign
Kennedy had faced potential challenges from former U.S. Senator Rod Grams, as well as U.S. Representative Gil Gutknecht, but both men were persuaded by national GOP leaders to run for the House instead. (Grams lost to Representative Jim Oberstar, while Gutknecht lost his reelection bid to Tim Walz.)
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Mark Kennedy | 147,091 | 90.21 | |
| Republican | John Uldrich | 10,025 | 6.15 | |
| Republican | Harold Shudlick | 5,941 | 3.64 | |
| Total votes | 163,057 | 100.00 | ||
Independence primary
Candidates
- Miles W. Collins
- Robert Fitzgerald, public-access television executive
- Stephen Williams, salesman
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independence | Robert Fitzgerald | 5,520 | 51.61 | |
| Independence | Miles W. Collins | 2,600 | 24.31 | |
| Independence | Stephen Williams | 2,575 | 24.08 | |
| Total votes | 10,695 | 100.00 | ||
General election
Candidates
Major
- Robert Fitzgerald (IPM), public-access television cable TV show director
- Mark Kennedy (R), U.S. Congressman
- Amy Klobuchar (D), Hennepin County Attorney
Minor
- Michael Cavlan (G), nurse and independent journalist
- Peter Idusogie (I), businessman (write-in)
- Ben Powers (C), quality control technician
Campaign
Kennedy's routine support of President George W. Bush in House votes appeared to be a central issue for Democrats in the campaign. In June 2006, allegations were made that many references to and photos of Bush had been removed from Kennedy's official U.S. House website. In rebuttal, Republicans said that there were 72 references to Bush on the website and that the changes noted by critics had been made some time ago, as part of the normal updating process.[7] Ben Powers was the only ballot-qualified candidate not invited to appear on Minnesota Public Television's Almanac program, despite Powers's offer to fill the space left unfilled by Klobuchar's decision not to appear with Kennedy and Fitzgerald on the program. Green candidate Michael Cavlan appeared on the program twice during the campaign as a special guest.
Debates
- Complete video of debate, September 19, 2006
- Complete video of debate, October 15, 2006
- Complete video of debate, October 29, 2006
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[8] | Likely D | November 6, 2006 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Likely D | November 6, 2006 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[10] | Safe D | November 6, 2006 |
| Real Clear Politics[11] | Lean D | November 6, 2006 |
Polling
After the release of the Star Tribune poll[12] on September 17, 2006, showing Klobuchar ahead by 24%, Kennedy's campaign issued a statement[13] from Joe Pally, the campaign's communications director. He claimed that the margin was exaggerated because of bias by the Star Tribune and that the poll was "clearly more about discouraging Kennedy supporters than on reflecting the true status of one of the most closely contested Senate races in the country."[14] This press release came in the wake of news that the Republican party was scaling back funding for Kennedy's election campaign to shore up campaigns in states seen as winnable. Kennedy's campaign frequently accused the Star Tribune of bias in favor of Klobuchar, whose father was an editorial columnist and sportswriter for the paper until his retirement. A subsequent poll by Rasmussen Reports showed a similar lead for Klobuchar, and the St. Paul Pioneer Press also showed Klobuchar with a 15% lead in September. Klobuchar won the November 7 election by more than 20 percentage points.
| Source | Date | Klobuchar (DFL) | Kennedy (R) | Fitzgerald (IPM) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen[15] | December 23, 2005 | 48% | 41% | |
| Rasmussen[16] | January 28, 2006 | 43% | 42% | |
| Rasmussen[17] | February 28, 2006 | 45% | 42% | |
| Zogby/WSJ[18] | March 31, 2006 | 49% | 41% | |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Poll[19] | May 9, 2006 | 50% | 42% | |
| Rasmussen[20] | May 10, 2006 | 45% | 43% | |
| Zogby/WSJ[18] | June 21, 2006 | 49% | 41% | |
| Rasmussen[21] | June 30, 2006 | 47% | 44% | |
| ''Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune'' Minnesota Poll[22] | July 16, 2006 | 50% | 31% | |
| Zogby/WSJ[18] | July 24, 2006 | 49% | 43% | |
| Bennett, Petts, and Blumenthal (D)[23] | July 24, 2006 | 48% | 30% | |
| SurveyUSA[24] | July 24, 2006 | 47% | 42% | 8% |
| Rasmussen[25] | August 7, 2006 | 50% | 38% | 5% |
| Zogby/WSJ[26] | August 28, 2006 | 50% | 42% | |
| Rasmussen[27] | August 28, 2006 | 47% | 40% | 8% |
| Gallup[28] | September 5, 2006 | 50% | 40% | |
| Zogby/WSJ[26] | September 11, 2006 | 49% | 40% | |
| ''Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune'' Minnesota Poll[29] | September 17, 2006 | 56% | 32% | 3% |
| University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute[30] | September 21, 2006 | 52% | 36% | 7% |
| Minnesota Public Radio/Pioneer Press/Mason-Dixon[31] | September 25, 2006 | 52% | 37% | 1% |
| SurveyUSA[32] | September 28, 2006 | 51% | 43% | 2% |
| Rasmussen[33] | October 4, 2006 | 53% | 36% | 6% |
| ''Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune'' Minnesota Poll[34] | October 15, 2006 | 55% | 34% | 3% |
| Zogby/WSJ[35] | October 19, 2006 | 50% | 43% | |
| SurveyUSA[36] | October 24, 2006 | 55% | 39% | 3% |
| Rasmussen[37] | October 25, 2006 | 54% | 39% | |
| University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute[38] | November 1, 2006 | 55% | 33% | 3% |
| ''Minneapolis-St. Paul Star Tribune'' Minnesota Poll[39] | November 4, 2006 | 54% | 34% | 4% |
| SurveyUSA[40] | November 6, 2006 | 56% | 40% | 2% |
Endorsements
Results
The race was, as expected, not close, with Klobuchar winning decisively. She did well in major cities, such as Minneapolis and St. Paul, while Kennedy did well only in smaller, less populated counties. The turnout was high, although not unusual for Minnesota, one of the highest voter turnout states. Official turnout came in at 70.64%.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Amy Klobuchar | 1,278,849 | 58.06% | +9.23% | |
| Republican | Mark Kennedy | 835,653 | 37.94% | −5.35% | |
| Independence | Robert Fitzgerald | 71,194 | 3.23% | −2.58% | |
| Green | Michael Cavlan | 10,714 | 0.49% | n/a | |
| Constitution | Ben Powers | 5,408 | 0.25% | +0.15% | |
| Write-ins | 954 | ||||
| Majority | 443,196 | 20.2% | |||
| Turnout | 2,202,772 | 70.64% | |||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | Swing | ||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Morrison (largest city: Little Falls)
- Todd (largest city: Long Prairie)
- Faribault (largest city: Blue Earth)
- Nobles (largest city: Worthington)
- Martin (largest city: Fairmont)
- Cottonwood (largest city: Windom)
- Dodge (largest city: Kasson)
- Murray (largest city: Slayton)
- Brown (largest city: New Ulm)
- McLeod (largest city: Hutchinson)
- Meeker (largest city: Litchfield)
- Sibley (largest city: Gaylord)
- Benton (largest city: Sauk Rapids)
- Isanti (largest city: Cambridge)
- Chisago (largest city: North Branch)
- Mille Lacs (largest city: Princeton)
- Kanabec (largest city: Mora)
- Lake of the Woods (largest city: Baudette)
- Roseau (largest city: Roseau)
- Clearwater (largest city: Bagley)
- Becker (largest city: Detroit Lakes)
- Douglas (largest city: Alexandria)
- Cass (largest city: Lake Shore)
- Crow Wing (largest city: Brainerd)
- Hubbard (largest city: Park Rapids)
- Stearns (largest city: St. Cloud)
- Wilkin, (largest city: Breckenridge)
- Houston (largest city: La Crescent)
- Anoka (largest city: Blaine)
- Dakota (largest city: Hastings)
- Scott (largest city: Shakopee)
- Washington (largest city: Stillwater)
- Carver (largest city: Chaska)
- Wabasha (largest city: Lake City)
- Goodhue (largest city: Red Wing)
- Le Sueur (largest city: Le Sueur)
- Waseca (largest city: Waseca)
- Steele (largest city: Owatonna)
- Olmsted (largest city: Rochester)