2020 United States Senate election in Virginia
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Virginia was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic senator Mark Warner won reelection to a third term against Republican nominee Daniel Gade.
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November 3, 2020
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   Warner: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Gade: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Of Virginia's 20 most populous counties and independent cities, Warner won 18, losing only Hanover and Spotsylvania.[1]
Background
Incumbent Senator Mark Warner first won election in 2008 getting 65% of the vote over former Governor Jim Gilmore.[2] In 2014, during the Tea Party movement, and declining voter turnout, Senator Warner won re-election by a margin of 0.8% against former chair of the Republican National Committee Ed Gillespie.[3]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mark Warner, incumbent U.S. senator[4][5][6]
Republican primary
Seven Republicans declared that they would compete in the race, but only three made the threshold of 3,500 signatures.[7][8] The original signature threshold was 10,000 signatures, but was lowered to 3,500 following a suit by Omari Faulkner.[9] The primary was on June 23.
Candidates
Nominee
- Daniel Gade, college professor and U.S. Army veteran[10]
Eliminated in primary
Failed to qualify
Withdrawn
- Gary Adkins, financial executive[17]
- John Easley, Republican candidate for Virginia's 1st congressional district in 2020[18][19]
- Scott Taylor, former U.S. representative for Virginia's 2nd congressional district[20] (ran for his former House seat)
Declined
- Nick Freitas, state delegate and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (ran for U.S. House)[21]
- Corey Stewart, nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018 and former chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors[22][23]
Endorsements
Daniel Gade
National party officials
- Morton Blackwell, Virginia representative to the Republican National Committee[24]
U.S. representatives
- Randy Forbes, former (VA-04)[25]
- Elise Stefanik (NY-21)[25]
- Scott Rigell, former (VA-02)[24]
State senators
- Bill Carrico, former (40)[24]
- Richard Stuart (28)[26]
- Jill Vogel (27)[25]
State delegates
Individuals
- Don Bolduc, brigadier general and 2020 candidate for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire[24]
- E. W. Jackson, pastor and conservative activist[24]
Results
Gade
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 90–100%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Daniel Gade | 208,754 | 67.40% | |
| Republican | Alissa Baldwin | 56,165 | 18.13% | |
| Republican | Thomas Speciale | 44,795 | 14.46% | |
| Total votes | 309,714 | 100.0% | ||
Independents
General election
Virginia's 2020 Senate election was widely considered to be a safe hold for Mark Warner, as pre-election polling showed a massive lead for Warner. Warner's razor-thin victory over Ed Gillespie six years earlier was considered to be a fluke owing to lowered turnout and complacency. On election day, Warner was declared the winner as soon as polls closed based on exit polling alone. The higher turnout is attributable to this election being held concurrently with the presidential election. Warner also notably outperformed Biden in the state, although narrowly.
Warner's victory was largely drawn from the DC Metropolitan area in north Virginia. This is the area that has shifted Virginia from a Republican stronghold in the early 2000s to a Democratic stronghold.
- Complete video of debate, September 23, 2020
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[31] | Safe D | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[32] | Safe D | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[34] | Safe D | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[35] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[36] | Likely D | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[37] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[38] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[39] | Safe D | November 2, 2020 |
Post-primary endorsements
Mark Warner (D)
- Labor unions
- Organizations
- Black Economic Alliance[41]
- Coalition to Stop Gun Violence[42]
- End Citizens United[43]
- Human Rights Campaign[44]
- Humane Society of the United States Legislative Fund[45]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[46]
- League of Conservation Voters[47]
- National Education Association[48]
- National Organization for Women[49]
- Planned Parenthood[50]
- Population Connection[51]
- Sierra Club[52]
Daniel Gade (R)
- U.S. representatives
- Dan Crenshaw, TX-02 (2019–present)[25]
Polling
View source data.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mark Warner (D) |
Daniel Gade (R) |
Other/ Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swayable[53][b] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 283 (LV) | ± 8.3% | 61% | 39% | – |
| Data for Progress[54] | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 690 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 57% | 42% | 1%[c] |
| Roanoke College[55] | October 23–29, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 55% | 39% | 6%[d] |
| Christopher Newport University[56] | October 15–27, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 57% | 37% | 6%[e] |
| Swayable[57] | October 23–26, 2020 | 332 (LV) | ± 7.3% | 60% | 40% | – |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[58] | October 13–22, 2020 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.93% | 55% | 38% | 8%[f] |
| Schar School/Washington Post[59] | October 13–19, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 4% | 57% | 39% | 4%[g] |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[60] | October 11–14, 2020 | 1,231 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 54% | 43% | 2%[h] |
| Reconnect Research/Roanoke College[61] | September 30 – October 12, 2020 | 602 (LV) | – | 55% | 38% | 7%[i] |
| Roanoke College/Reconnect Research[62] | September 30 – October 12, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 55% | 38% | 7%[i] |
| Cygnal (R)[63][j] | October 9–11, 2020 | 607 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | 5%[k] |
| Cygnal (R)[64][l][j] | September 22–25, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 51% | 41% | – |
| Christopher Newport University[65] | September 9–21, 2020 | 796 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 52% | 39% | 9%[m] |
| Virginia Commonwealth University[66][n] | August 28 – September 7, 2020 | 692 (LV) | ± 6.22% | 55% | 38% | 6[o] |
| Roanoke College[67] | August 9–22, 2020 | 566 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 34% | 10%[p] |
Hypothetical polling
with Mark Warner and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mark Warner (D) |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roanoke College[68] | May 3–16, 2020 | 563 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 31% | – | – |
with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos/University of Virginia[69] | Feb 15–19, 2019 | 636 (A) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 26% | 2% | 23% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Mark Warner (incumbent) | 2,466,500 | 55.99% | +6.84% | |
| Republican | Daniel Gade | 1,934,199 | 43.91% | −4.43% | |
| Write-in | 4,388 | 0.10% | +0.02% | ||
| Total votes | 4,405,087 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By county and independent city
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Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic
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By congressional district
Warner won seven of 11 congressional districts.[71]
| District | Warner | Gade | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 49% | 51% | Rob Wittman |
| 2nd | 54% | 46% | Elaine Luria |
| 3rd | 69% | 31% | Bobby Scott |
| 4th | 63% | 37% | Donald McEachin |
| 5th | 48% | 52% | Denver Riggleman |
| Bob Good | |||
| 6th | 42% | 58% | Ben Cline |
| 7th | 51% | 49% | Abigail Spanberger |
| 8th | 76% | 23% | Don Beyer |
| 9th | 34% | 66% | Morgan Griffith |
| 10th | 59% | 41% | Jennifer Wexton |
| 11th | 70% | 30% | Gerry Connolly |
Notes
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
- "Refused/would not vote" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
- "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
- "Undecided/Refused" with 8%
- "Other" and "Neither" with 0%; would not vote with no voters; Undecided with 4%
- "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
- Undecided with 7%
- Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign
- Undecided with 5%
- Archived October 4, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 8%
- Archived September 15, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
- "Don't know/refused" with 6%
- "Refused" with 0%
- On January 11th, 2024, the Prince William County Office of Elections issued a notice that the election results in the county were improperly reported. The error caused Gade's countywide votes to be underreported by 107, and Warner's countywide votes to be underreported by 1,589. See https://www.princewilliamtimes.com/news/criminal-charges-against-former-prince-william-elections-chief-now-dropped-stemmed-from-vote-tabulation-errors/article_40a3eeca-b0e9-11ee-b49c-4f4ae054a6b0.html