User:Lacunae/31

Forecast

is well known because it was an important case of failure for most of the operational centres at short ranges. A surprising feature is that some medium-range numerical forecasts (96 hours) are able to predict the storm quite well and then this feature is lost as the forecast range becomes shorter^[7]

The UK Met Office models showed a moderate risk of gales on the 24 December for the western UK, on the 21 a preliminary warning was given.^[6] By the following day the signal for strong gales was absent from the models, and over the next 48 hours the models from the major forecasting centres showed a varying pattern, but began to agree that cyclogenesis would be weak or absent on the 24 December.^[6] By 23 December satellite imagery was beginning to show a low moving north-east, past the Azores displaying a "cloud head" structure, which is an accepted precursor to explosive cyclogenesis with a distinct dry wedge evident.^[6] The available models were still displaying a weak depression would move towards the UK with a central pressure around only 990 hPa.^[6] A buoy in the Azores area indicated a sharp pressure drop from the developing storm (which might have been dismissed as incorrect without the satellite imagery) led forecasters to view the NWP models with suspicion.^[6] On 24 December the satellite imagery remained consistent with a major storm forming, forecasters recognised the NWP models were not representing the meteorological development correctly.^[6] Further observations form buoys and ships backed up the forecasters' conclusions and so they intervened and released an early warning of severe gales on 24 December as a "flash warning".^[6] This was updated later that day to an "emergency flash" of exceptionally severe weather, being the first such warning issued by the Met Office since the warning system was implemented.^[6]

in Northern Ireland the 1997 storm was of shorter duration and less severe than the Boxing Day Storm of 1998, with an estimated return period of 5 to 8 years.^[8]

The 1997 Christmas Eve storm in the Dublin area which produced the highest wind gust of the decade at Dublin Airport (76 knots / 39m/s) typified this process of" explosive growth of a wave depression.^[9]

context

In Munster and south Leinster very severe and comparable to the Irish windstorm of January 1974 storm and Hurricane Debbie 1961.^[10]

night of the big wind, ophelia, cyclone Tini Ulysses storm

1998 Boxing day storm

Impact

• http://irishecho.com/2011/02/holiday-storms-leave-ireland-wet-bewildered-2/
• http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12285082.Storm_toll_reaches_six_as_tree_falls_on_father_and_daughter/

In south Leinster and Munster this event was comparable with the January 1974 storm, and worst in Ireland since Hurricane Debbie (1961).^[11] The face was blown off the clock on Penney's, formerly Cannock's, - one of Limerick's landmarks ^[12]

widespread gusts of 70-80kn over northern England during the evening of 24 December, having already given a gust of 96kn in North Wales. As a result of the storm much damage occurred to trees and buildings, with electricity supplies in north-west England severely disrupted. In addition, severe damage was caused to 100m section of the jetty to Blackpool pier washed away, and damaged the helipad.^[6][13][14]

areas affected and impact similar to Cyclone Tini of 2014.^[15]

Three killed when a tree fell on a car in Pengam, Gwent. motorist from Stroke-on-Trent ^[16] 2 deaths in Ireland one after wall in Waterville, County Kerry, Man clearing fallen tree off vehicle trapped, suspected heart attack in Togher, Cork.^[17]

motorcyclist killed in North Wales^[18]

The storm was described as the worst in the UK in over 20 years, and the police described conditions in several cities as chaotic.^[19] 70,000 households in Ireland, 8000 families in England and an unknown number of households in Wales lost power Christmas Eve^[19]

Toul an Trez missing with 5 crew aboard in Irish Sea.^[18][20]

UK 35,000 lost power in NW and N Wales due to the storm. Brussels Belgium reported it's warmest Christmas Day since records began in 1830 due to the passage of warm air in the storm.^[21]

8000 householders in Dumfries and Galloway without power. Warrington in Cheshire, where Manweb was struggling to cope with the number of downed power lines.At one point more than 21,000 customers in the area were without electricity, mainly in the Caernarvon, Holywell and Wrexham areas, with extra staff drafted in. in the North-west, almost 4000 homes were without power in Cheshire, but on Merseyside around 3000 properties got their electricity back after several hours. Small pockets of Greater Manchester were also blacked out for a time. The situation in Cumbria and Lancashire was more serious, with electricity company Norweb re-porting power loss in 50,000 properties. Damaged cables and a fault at a Lancashire sub-station were to blame and by lunchtime 20,000 homes had their power back on.^[13] Manweb said it had no warning from the Met Office.^[22] total 135,000 homes without power in Ireland from the storm, with ESB stating the damage to the network was the worst in 20 years, back to the 1974 storm in southern Ireland.^[23]

Shannon airport saw the terminal building left with only emergency lighting. Phones were also hit by the power cut and a Boeing aircraft was tipped over by the wind and damaged at the airport.^[23] Roads were blocked all over Ireland, severe transport disruption throughout the country to air, sea, road and rail transport. Phoenix Park was closed to the public in Dublin.^[23]

Landing incident at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport Transavia Boeing 757 hard landing in gusty winds, broke landing gear slid down runway for 3 km.^[24] crew failed to compute crosswind component.^[25]

The Christmas Eve storm of 1997 generated 47,500 insurance claims totalling £45M in Ireland, according to the Irish Insurance Federation 1999.^[26] Christmas Eve storm in the Dublin area.^[26] produced the highest wind gust of the decade at Dublin Airport (76 knots / 39m/s) t

half a million trees, were either snapped or blown over. not as bad forestry as 1974, severe around Cork.^[27]

MANWEB states that the Meteorological Office gave it no advance warning.-http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/commons/1998/jan/21/north-wales-power-cuts