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In World Energy Outlook 2023 the IEA notes that We are on track to see all fossil fuels peak before 2030.[1]:18

The IEA presents three scenarios.[1]:17

The "Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS)" provides an outlook based on the latest policy settings. The share of fossil fuel in global energy supply – stuck for decades around 80% – starts to edge downwards and reaches 73% by 2030.[1]:18 This undercuts the rationale for any increase in fossil fuel investment.[1]:19 Renewables are set to contribute 80% of new power capacity to 2030, with solar PV alone accounting for more than half.[1]:20 The STEPS sees a peak in energy-related CO2 emissions in the mid-2020s but emissions remain high enough to push up global average temperatures to around 2.4 °C in 2100.[1]:22 Total energy demand continues to increase through to 2050.[1]:23 Total energy investment remains at about USD 3 trillion per year.[1]:49

The "Announced Pledges Scenario (APS)" assumes all national energy and climate targets made by governments are met in full and on time. The APS is associated with a temperature rise of 1.7 °C in 2100 (with a 50% probability).[1]:92 Total energy investment rises to about USD 4 trillion per year after 2030.[1]:49

The "Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)" Scenario limits global warming to 1.5 °C.[1]:17 The share of fossil fuel reaches 62% in 2030.[1]:101 Methane emissions from fossil fuel supply cuts by 75% in 2030.[1]:45 Total energy investment rises to almost USD 5 trillion per year after 2030.[1]:49 Clean energy investment needs to rise everywhere, but the steepest increases are needed in emerging market and developing economies other than China, requiring enhanced international support.[1]:46 The share of nuclear power remains broadly stable over time in all scenarios, about 9%.[1]:106



In Dirac representation, the four contravariant gamma matrices are

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