An estimated 84% of crude oil and condensate shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz were destined for Asian markets, underscoring the strait’s importance to Asia’s energy security.
Diagram showing 2024 daily average of LNG transported through the strait
A prior 12-day air conflict (the Twelve-Day War) and the later failure of the 2025–2026 Iran–United States negotiations in Geneva contributed to escalating tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel ahead of 2026.
Amid rising risk of disruption, Iran increased oil exports to about three times normal levels and reduced storage; Saudi Arabia also attempted similar moves to mitigate potential shocks from a Strait of Hormuz closure.
War-risk ship insurance premiums for transiting the strait rose sharply (from about 0.125% to roughly 0.2%–0.4% of insured value per transit), increasing costs—especially for very large oil tankers—before fighting began.
The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury, targeting military and nuclear sites and Iranian leadership; Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was killed.
Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases and Israeli territory, with the confrontation also affecting other Gulf states; shipping companies began reassessing risk as threats to the strait intensified.
Outgoing maritime traffic through the strait was reported heavy while incoming traffic was light; multiple tankers were reportedly struck near the strait, signaling the start of direct pressure on commercial shipping.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued VHF radio warnings that no ships would be permitted to pass through the strait; traffic rapidly declined as vessels stayed in port or turned back despite the absence of a formally declared blockade.
The oil tanker Skylight was struck north of Khasab, Oman, killing two Indian crew members and injuring others; the MKD VYOM was hit by a drone boat, causing a fire and explosion, and further casualties among Indian sailors were reported on other vessels.
Ship-tracking reports indicated no ships appeared in the strait, reflecting an abrupt collapse in commercial movements as the risk of attack and uncertainty about safe passage surged.
A senior IRGC official publicly confirmed the strait was closed and threatened any ship attempting passage, escalating the crisis from warnings and disruption to an explicit closure claim.
The US-flagged Stena Imperative was struck at the port of Bahrain, causing a fire and killing a port worker; the Athe Nova was reportedly hit by drones after attempting to cross the strait, according to IRGC-linked media.
No tankers in the strait were broadcasting automatic identification system signals, widely interpreted as evidence of minimal or halted traffic (with caveats about data reliability and navigation systems).
European natural gas prices spiked sharply, with the Dutch Title Transfer Facility benchmark rising to €46/MWh as markets priced in disruption risk from the strait’s shutdown.
European gas prices peaked above €60/MWh (nearly double the previous week), before beginning to ease later in the week as markets digested the evolving scale of disruption.
Bloomberg reported Iraq started shutting down operations at the Rumaila oil field due to storage constraints, as tankers were unable to leave the Persian Gulf through the strait.
The IRGC claimed it had achieved complete control of the strait; by this point at least eight vessels had reportedly been damaged, and attacks and threats continued to deter passage.
A Malta-flagged vessel, Safeen Prestige, was struck and its crew evacuated; despite the effective blockade, the Pola reportedly transited with its AIS off and delivered cargo to the UAE, illustrating uneven compliance and enforcement risk.
Iran was reported to allow only Chinese vessels to pass through the strait, citing China’s supportive stance—signaling a politically selective approach to passage during the closure.
Pakistan formally requested Saudi Arabia reroute oil supplies via Yanbu Commercial Port on the Red Sea, as importers and exporters sought alternatives to the blocked route.
Qatar declared force majeure on gas contracts (after stopping gas production on 2 March), reflecting the crisis’ immediate impact on LNG supply commitments linked to the strait.
Protection and indemnity insurance war risk was removed for 5 March, making transits economically prohibitive; the strait was deemed a high-risk zone and became “technically open, but effectively closed” for many operators.
The bulk carrier Iron Maiden transited while signaling “CHINA OWNER,” and the LPG tanker Bogazici reportedly passed after broadcasting it was Muslim-owned and Turkish-operated, highlighting ad hoc signaling strategies to seek safe passage.
The IRGC stated the strait would be closed only to ships from the U.S., Israel, and Western allies, a position later reaffirmed, even as overall traffic had already fallen close to zero.
A tugboat sent to assist Safeen Prestige was struck by missiles and later sank, leaving at least three crew members missing, showing attacks extended beyond tankers to support vessels.
Qatar’s energy minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi warned that prolonged war could force other Gulf producers to halt exports and declare force majeure, contributing to renewed upward pressure on prices.
The IRGC claimed attacks on the tanker Prima in the Persian Gulf and a U.S. oil tanker (“Louise P”) in the Strait of Hormuz, sustaining pressure on maritime operations across the region.
Kuwait declared force majeure and announced cuts to oil production; the UAE also lowered production, reflecting supply-side responses to the inability to export normally through the strait.
A Liberia-flagged bulk carrier, Sino Ocean, reportedly transited after broadcasting Chinese ownership/operation, reinforcing reports that Chinese-linked shipping had preferential ability to pass.
Brent crude oil surpassed $100 per barrel for the first time in four years, with prices later reported to have reached as high as $126 at peak amid fears of prolonged supply shortages.
Iran reaffirmed the strait would remain closed to the U.S., Israel, and Western allies; the crisis was widely described as a major energy shock comparable to the 1970s oil crises.
Oil production at Iraq’s three main southern oil fields was reported to have dropped by about 70% since the war began, illustrating the knock-on effect of export constraints and storage bottlenecks.
France announced a defensive escort mission for merchant ships in the framework of Operation Aspides, with the French Navy pledging frigates to support transits amid the continuing threat environment.
Shipping insurance rates were reported to have risen four to six times over the previous week, and the U.S. government began supporting insurers under the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, reflecting systemic risk to maritime trade.
Iran declared it would bring “more security passage” to countries that expel U.S. and Israeli ambassadors, linking maritime security conditions to diplomatic alignment.
A bulk carrier reported a splash and explosion 36 nautical miles off Abu Dhabi, the first reported maritime incident in several days, suggesting intermittent but persistent risk beyond the immediate choke point.
U.S. intelligence reported Iran began planting naval mines in the strait; President Donald Trump demanded their removal, and the U.S. military said it destroyed 16 Iranian minelayers.
Britain, with Germany and Italy, was reported to be working on supporting commercial shipping through the strait, reflecting broader European coordination alongside French efforts.
A wave of attacks damaged multiple vessels; Oman’s navy rescued crew from the burning Mayuree Naree, and an unverified IRGC claim targeted Express Rome, while separate drone boat attacks off Iraq’s Port of Basra killed at least one crew member.
The 32 International Energy Agency member states agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves—about four days of global consumption—to blunt the shock from the supply disruption.
The UKMTO reported receiving 16 shipping attack reports and four “suspicious incident” reports in the Persian Gulf since hostilities began, illustrating sustained maritime insecurity and ongoing disruption.
In the United States, gasoline prices in California exceeded $5 per gallon, showing how the strait’s disruption and wider conflict fed through into consumer energy costs.
The crisis has continued with an effective halt of much shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; tanker traffic initially fell by about 70% and then toward zero, with more than 150 ships anchoring outside the strait, affecting roughly 20% of global daily oil supply and substantial LNG flows.