1998 PSOE prime ministerial primary

The debate on whether to hold an internal primary election to elect the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)'s nominee for prime minister of Spain dated back to 1995,^[1] when long-lasting leader Felipe González had seriously considered for several months not to run in the 1996 general election.^[2][3][4] The election of foreign affairs minister Javier Solana—widely seen as González's most likely successor—as NATO secretary-general in December 1995 conditioned González's plans to retire and led to him confirming a new run,^[5][6] thwarting the aspirations of other likely contenders, such as public works minister Josep Borrell.^[7][8] In May 1997, González had announced that he did not wish to run for the post of prime minister again,^[9] despite his leadership of the party not being in question.^[10]

The 1997 PSOE federal party congress saw González surprisingly announcing his immediate retirement and his backing of Joaquín Almunia—who had been a former minister of labour and public administrations under his governments—as the party's new secretary-general,^[11][12] but this had been perceived as a rushed process influenced by the powerful regional leaders (colloquially referred to as barones, Spanish for "barons"), with other potential candidates such as Borrell being sidelined by party elites for the sake of unity in the wake of González's shock farewell.^[13][14][15] Worried about a perceived lack of legitimacy among party members, Almunia initially declined to propose himself as the party's candidate for prime minister in the next general election,^[16] instead advocating for alternatives such as calling for Felipe González to consider a new run,^[17] or for the candidate to be elected through primaries in the first semester of 1998.^[18][19] González ruled himself out,^[20] whereas the primary proposal—which had been voted and approved in the party congress in June 1997 for local and regional elections^[21][22]—was met with skepticism or outright opposition from PSOE regional leaders.^[23]

Following increasing pressure from his party,^[24][25][26] Almunia ultimately accepted to run for the post in the primary election as a way to legitimize his leadership,^[27][28][29] while warning that he would resign as secretary-general should he lose to any prospective contender.^[30][31][32] On the eve of the official start of the primary process, it transpired that Borrell had been considering for some time to field his own candidacy,^[33] which he confirmed on 21 March 1998.^[34]

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the candidate's colour. In the instance of a tie, the figures with the highest percentages are shaded. Polls show data gathered among PSOE voters/supporters as well as Spanish voters as a whole, but not among party members, who were the ones ultimately entitled to vote in the primary election.

PSOE voters

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							Other /None	?	Lead
			Almunia (Inc.)	Borrell	Solana	Bono	Guerra	Maragall
Primary election	24 Apr 1998	—N/a[b]	44.7	55.0	–	–	–	–	0.3	—N/a	10.3
ASEP[p 1]	20–24 Apr 1998	1,204	38.9	31.4	–	–	–	–	–	29.7	7.5
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 2]	19 Apr 1998	?	40.2	24.5	–	–	–	–	21.2	14.1	15.7
DECO/PSOE[p 3][p 4]	27–28 Mar 1998	2,000	48.8	31.1	–	–	–	–	20.1		17.7
Opina/La Vanguardia[p 5]	26 Mar 1998	83[b]	33.7	43.4	–	–	–	–	–	22.9	9.7
		600	37.3	35.7	–	–	–	–	–	27.0	1.6
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 2]	26 Mar 1998	?	43.9	30.6	–	–	–	–	9.5	16.0	13.3
Demoscopia/El País[p 6]	24–25 Mar 1998	336	40.0	35.0	–	–	–	–	25.0		5.0
ASEP[p 1]	7–11 Jul 1997	1,214	10.0	4.6	11.6	4.7	2.3	0.9	3.0	63.0	1.6

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Spanish voters

More information Polling firm/Commissioner, Fieldwork date ...

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size							Other /None	?	Lead
			Almunia (Inc.)	Borrell	Solana	Bono	Guerra	Maragall
ASEP[p 1]	20–24 Apr 1998	1,204	30.1	21.5	–	–	–	–	–	48.5	8.6
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 7]	19 Apr 1998	?	25.7	17.5	–	–	–	–	40.1	16.8	8.2
Vox Pública/El Periódico[p 8]	29 Mar 1998	800	28.3	20.5	–	–	–	–	51.2		7.8
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 7]	26 Mar 1998	800	30.9	23.1	–	–	–	–	24.9	21.1	7.8
Demoscopia/El País[p 6]	24–25 Mar 1998	1,200	31.0	29.0	–	–	–	–	40.0		2.0
ASEP[p 1]	7–11 Jul 1997	1,214	7.7	3.3	8.9	3.1	1.1	1.0	3.4	71.7	1.2

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Against expectations of an Almunia victory,^[52][53] Borrell emerged as the clear winner in a shock result, with 55% of the votes to the former's 45%; his showing was particularly strong in his home region of Catalonia, where—despite the support given to Almunia by the leaders of the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC)—he won with over 80% of the votes, coming out on top in all autonomous communities but Andalusia, the Basque Country and Castilla–La Mancha.^[54][55][56]

The outcome of the primaries—with the defeat of the secretary-general and the party apparatus which had supported him—immediately plunged the party into uncertainty:^[57] convinced that the party's rank and file had voted not just for the prime ministerial nominee but also against his leadership, Almunia considered fulfilling his promise of tender his resignation, which would have triggered an extraordinary congress.^[58][59] A majority of party regional leaders, former leader Felipe González and Borrell himself urged Almunia not to resign in order to prevent an internal crisis,^[60][61][62] while fears of internal reprisal or political purges were dismissed.^[63][64]

As some sectors suggested a power-sharing agreement,^[65][66] both of them negotiated their future roles in the party structure.^[67][68] Borrell would become the PSOE's political and electoral leader as well as the new parliamentary opposition chief to Aznar's government,^[69] while Almunia would remain as secretary-general and the de jure leader of the party.^[70][71] These agreements paved the way for a "bicephaly" (duumvirate) situation in which both men would cohabitate the party's leadership with each other.^[66][72]

Borrell and Almunia would clash for months on their roles and the party's platform.^[73][74][75] Borrell would withdraw in May 1999 after it was unveiled that two former aides were involved in a judicial investigation for tax fraud,^[76][77] leaving a vacancy that resulted in Almunia being proclaimed as prime ministerial candidate without opposition.^[78][79] Almunia would went on to lose the 2000 general election, in which José María Aznar's People's Party (PP) would secure an absolute majority of seats.^[80] Almunia would later reveal that he made a mistake by not resigning as secretary-general following Borrell's victory and another one by accepting the party's nomination after the latter's withdrawal.^[81]