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1998 Philippine presidential election
13th election of the Philippine president
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Presidential and vice presidential elections were held in the Philippines on May 11, 1998. In the presidential election, Vice President Joseph Estrada won a six-year term as President by a landslide victory. In the vice-presidential race, Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo won a six-year term as Vice President, also by a landslide victory. This was the third election where both the president and vice president came from different parties.
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May 11, 1998
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| Turnout | 86.5% ( 11.0pp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 Presidential election results per province. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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1998 Philippine vice presidential election | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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May 11, 1998
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 Map showing the official results taken from provincial and city certificates of canvass. The inset shows Metro Manila. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Background
At the tail-end of the presidency of Fidel V. Ramos, several politicians began jockeying for the nomination of his Lakas–NUCD–UMDP party. This included House Speaker Jose de Venecia Jr., National Defense Secretary Renato de Villa, and Cebu Governor Lito Osmeña.
The Lakas nominee was widely expected to face Vice President Joseph Estrada, who had been the leading candidate in various opinion polls. Estrada had earlier declared in 1992 that he would not run for president, stating his intention to retire upon reaching the age of 60 in 1998,[1] but he later recanted this decision.
Senator Miriam Defensor Santiago, who believed she had been cheated out of the presidency by Ramos in 1992, was also expected to run again.
Former First Lady Imelda Marcos was likewise seen as a potential presidential contender. She banked on the support of loyalists of her husband, deposed president Ferdinand Marcos.
Senator Leticia Ramos-Shahani initially launched her presidential campaign on July 6, 1997, in Pasig City with Lito Osmeña as her running mate.[2][3] However, she eventually decided to withdraw from the race and instead run for governor of Pangasinan.[4]
Senator Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who had topped the 1995 Senate election, was also considered a strong presidential contender, founding Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino with Tito Sotto, who himself topped the 1992 Senate election, widely seen as her likely running mate.
Senator Raul Roco, who had built a noteworthy Senate career by this point, gained strong backing from the youth through his own party, Aksyon Demokratiko.
The Lakas convention ultimately nominated de Venecia, Ramos' handpicked successor, for president. This led de Villa and Osmeña to bolt from Lakas and set up their own parties. De Venecia picked Arroyo as his vice presidential running mate.
The Liberal Party nominated Manila Mayor Alfredo Lim for president. Meanwhile, the Laban ng Demokratikong Pilipino, Nationalist People's Coalition and Estrada's own Partido ng Masang Pilipino (the forerunner of the Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino) established an electoral alliance known as Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino. Estrada chose Senator Edgardo Angara of LDP as his running mate.
Weeks before election day, Marcos withdrew from the race. Estrada had widened his lead over the other candidates by this point.
Candidates
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Lakas nomination
There were four candidates who sought the nomination of Lakas–NUCD: Jose de Venecia, Renato de Villa, Lito Osmeña, and Bulacan Governor Roberto Pagdanganan. De Villa was confident he would be selected by the party, as he, like President Ramos, was a former constabulary general. However, during the official Lakas party meeting, the presidential nomination was awarded to de Venecia. Following this, de Villa bolted from the party and formed Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma, while Osmeña established Probinsya Muna Development Initiative.[5]
Opinion polling
Opinion polling, commonly known as "surveys" in the Philippines were administered primarily by Social Weather Stations in 1998.
The tables below graph the last three surveys conducted.
For president
| Pollster | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Margin of error | de Venecia | de Villa | Defensor Santiago | Dumlao | Estrada | Lim | Marcos | Morato | Osmeña | Ponce Enrile | Roco | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SWS | Apr 8–16[6] | 1,500 | ±3% | 12 | 5 | 4 | 0.3 |
30 |
13 | 2 | 0.2 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| Mar 16–21[7] | 1,500 | ±3% | 14 | 5 | 7 | 0.4 |
28 |
14 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 7 | |
| Feb 21–27[8] | 1,500 | ±3% | 12 | 6 | 5 | 0.1 |
28 |
14 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 13 | 0.9 | 9 | 10 |
For vice president
Results
The 10th Congress canvassed the votes in joint session for a number of days before declaring Estrada and Arroyo as the winners; with Senate President Neptali Gonzales and Speaker De Venecia announcing the victors.
While the official canvassing did not start a fortnight after Election Day, the National Movement for Free Elections (NAMFREL) held a parallel and unofficial quick count which was released days after the election and was updated at irregular intervals. NAMFREL based their tally from the seventh copy of the election returns given to them.
In theory, the totals for the official canvassing (derived from the certificates of canvass, which are then derived from the election returns) and the completed NAMFREL quick count should be equal.
For president
Estrada carried the majority of the provinces, his hometown of San Juan City, and Metro Manila.
De Venecia carried his home province of Pangasinan as well as Baguio, Roco carried his home province of Camarines Sur and the rest of the Bicol Region (excluding Masbate), and Osmeña got his foothold over his home province of Cebu and other provinces in the South. Whilst De Villa Only Won His home Province Of Batangas and Siquijor.
Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as Enrile of Cagayan, and Defensor Santiago of Iloilo Province, as well as the neighboring province of Guimaras. Lim was the only major candidate who did not carry any provinces (with the exception of Batanes) and failed to capture his hometown of Manila.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Estrada | Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino | 10,722,295 | 39.86 | |
| Jose de Venecia Jr. | Lakas–NUCD–UMDP | 4,268,483 | 15.87 | |
| Raul Roco | Aksyon Demokratiko | 3,720,212 | 13.83 | |
| Lito Osmeña | PROMDI | 3,347,631 | 12.44 | |
| Alfredo Lim | Liberal Party | 2,344,362 | 8.71 | |
| Renato de Villa | Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma–Lapiang Manggagawa | 1,308,352 | 4.86 | |
| Miriam Defensor Santiago | People's Reform Party | 797,206 | 2.96 | |
| Juan Ponce Enrile | Independent | 343,139 | 1.28 | |
| Santiago Dumlao | Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago | 32,212 | 0.12 | |
| Manuel Morato | Partido Bansang Marangal | 18,644 | 0.07 | |
| Total | 26,902,536 | 100.00 | ||
| Valid votes | 26,902,536 | 91.86 | ||
| Invalid/blank votes[a] | 2,383,239 | 8.14 | ||
| Total votes | 29,285,775 | 100.00 | ||
| Registered voters/turnout | 33,873,665 | 86.46 | ||
| Source: Nohlen, Grotz, Hartmann, Hasall and Santos[9] | ||||
- Includes 232,714 votes for Imelda Marcos (Kilusang Bagong Lipunan) who withdrew after the ballots were printed.
NAMFREL quick count
Take note that Manuel Morato had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than in the official congressional canvass.
| Candidate | Party | Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Diff* | |||
| Joseph Estrada | LAMMP | 8,239,823 | 39.47% | −0.39% | |
| Jose de Venecia | Lakas | 3,247,067 | 15.55% | −0.32% | |
| Raul Roco | Aksyon | 2,923,842 | 14.00% | 0.17% | |
| Emilio Osmeña | PROMDI | 2,454,432 | 11.76% | −0.68% | |
| Alfredo Lim | Liberal | 1,815,664 | 8.70% | −0.01% | |
| Renato de Villa | Reporma | 1,028,854 | 4.93% | 0.07% | |
| Miriam Defensor Santiago | PRP | 584,633 | 2.80% | −0.16% | |
| Juan Ponce Enrile | Independent | 297,801 | 1.43% | 0.15% | |
| Imelda Marcos (withdrew) | KBL | 232,714 | 1.11% | N/A | |
| Santiago Dumlao | Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago | 29,327 | 0.14% | 0.02% | |
| Manuel Morato | Partido Bansang Marangal | 23,208 | 0.07% | 0.04% | |
| Votes | 20,877,365 | 100.00% | — | ||
*Difference from the NAMFREL quick count from the official congressional canvass.
Voter demographics
| Demographic subgroup | Estrada | de Venecia | Roco | Osmeña | Other | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total vote | 39 | 16 | 13 | 12 | 20 | 100 |
| NCR | 33 | 11 | 28 | 4 | 24 | 9 |
| CAR | 47 | 24 | 12 | 0 | 17 | 5 |
| Region I - Ilocos | 33 | 61 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| Region II - Cagayan | 44 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 5 |
| Region III - Central Luzon | 50 | 15 | 17 | 1 | 17 | 7 |
| Region IV - Southern Tagalog | 45 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 32 | 12 |
| Region V - Bicol | 14 | 8 | 75 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Region VI - Western Visayas | 40 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 36 | 9 |
| Region VII - Central Visayas | 20 | 12 | 5 | 52 | 11 | 7 |
| Region VIII - Eastern Visayas | 48 | 18 | 1 | 23 | 10 | 4 |
| Region IX - Western Mindanao | 39 | 19 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 6 |
| Region X - Northern Mindanao | 33 | 20 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 5 |
| Region XI - Southern Mindanao | 44 | 12 | 3 | 30 | 11 | 8 |
| Region XII - Central Mindanao | 52 | 18 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 6 |
| ARMM | 63 | 25 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 |
Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.3%)[11]
For vice-president
Arroyo also carried most of the provinces including her home province of Pampanga. Other candidates also carried their home provinces such as Angara of Aurora, and Quezon being mother province, Orbos of Pangasinan, Tatad of Catanduanes and Sueno of South Cotabato.
Only Osmeña of Cebu failed to capture the votes of their home provinces.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gloria Macapagal Arroyo | Lakas–NUCD–UMDP | 12,667,252 | 49.56 | |
| Edgardo Angara | Laban ng Makabayang Masang Pilipino | 5,652,068 | 22.11 | |
| Oscar Orbos | Partido para sa Demokratikong Reporma–Lapiang Manggagawa | 3,321,779 | 13.00 | |
| Serge Osmeña | Liberal Party | 2,351,462 | 9.20 | |
| Francisco Tatad | Grand Alliance for Democracy | 745,389 | 2.92 | |
| Ismael Sueno | PROMDI | 537,677 | 2.10 | |
| Irene Santiago | Aksyon Demokratiko | 240,210 | 0.94 | |
| Camilo Sabio | Partido Bansang Marangal | 22,010 | 0.09 | |
| Reynaldo Pacheco | Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago | 21,422 | 0.08 | |
| Total | 25,559,269 | 100.00 | ||
| Valid votes | 25,559,269 | 87.28 | ||
| Invalid/blank votes | 3,726,506 | 12.72 | ||
| Total votes | 29,285,775 | 100.00 | ||
| Registered voters/turnout | 33,873,665 | 86.46 | ||
NAMFREL quick count
Take note that Reynaldo Pacheco had a higher number of votes in the NAMFREL quick count than the official congressional canvass.
| Candidate | Party | Results | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Diff* | |||
| Gloria Macapagal Arroyo | Lakas | 9,624,397 | 48.85% | −0.71% | |
| Edgardo Angara | LDP | 4,380,991 | 22.24% | 0.13 | |
| Oscar Orbos | Reporma | 2,651,184 | 13.46% | 0.46 | |
| Sergio Osmeña III | Liberal | 1,183,998 | 9.21% | 0.01 | |
| Francisco Tatad | PRP/Gabay Bayan | 582,548 | 2.96% | 0.05 | |
| Ismael Sueno | PROMDI | 409,966 | 2.08% | −0.02 | |
| Irene Santiago | Aksyon | 196,386 | 1.00% | 0.07 | |
| Reynaldo Pacheco | Kilusan para sa Pambansang Pagpapanibago | 23,107 | 0.12% | 0.04 | |
| Camilo Sabio | Partido Bansang Marangal | 19,555 | 0.10% | 0.01 | |
| Votes | 19,702,132 | 100.00% | — | ||
*Difference from the NAMFREL quick count from the official congressional canvass.
Voter demographics
| Demographic subgroup | Arroyo | Angara | Orbos | Osmeña | Other | % of total vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total vote | 50 | 21 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 100 |
| NCR | 32 | 21 | 33 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| CAR | 60 | 19 | 17 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Region I - Ilocos | 53 | 15 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Region II - Cagayan | 62 | 26 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| Region III - Central Luzon | 66 | 16 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| Region IV - Southern Tagalog | 45 | 29 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| Region V - Bicol | 48 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 5 |
| Region VI - Western Visayas | 46 | 28 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 9 |
| Region VII - Central Visayas | 45 | 17 | 2 | 25 | 11 | 7 |
| Region VIII - Eastern Visayas | 67 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 4 |
| Region IX - Western Mindanao | 59 | 18 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 6 |
| Region X - Northern Mindanao | 58 | 21 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 5 |
| Region XI - Southern Mindanao | 50 | 20 | 5 | 13 | 12 | 8 |
| Region XII - Central Mindanao | 56 | 21 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
| ARMM | 58 | 30 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Source: Exit polls conducted by Social Weather Stations on May 12, 100% total (margin of error: 1.4%)[12]