2004 United States Senate election in Ohio

Candidates

• John Mitchel, retired United States Air Force lieutenant colonel and perennial candidate^[1]
• George Voinovich, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1999

Results

Candidates

• Norbert Dennerll, former member of the Cleveland city council
• Eric Fingerhut, state senator and former U.S. representative from Mayfield Heights

Campaign

The early story of the campaign surrounded speculation of whether Jerry Springer would enter the race.^[4] Springer, a former mayor of Cincinnati, had previously considered a challenge to the state's other Senator Mike DeWine in 2000, but ultimately passed on it.^[5] Among the steps Springer took, included filing papers to run^[6] traveling across the state to meet voters,^[7] and airing a nationwide 30 minute infomercial for the purpose of fundraising.^[8] The infomercial would not be seen in Ohio due to equal time laws. Ultimately, Springer declined a return to public office, citing his inability to distance himself from his infamous talk show's reputation.^[9] He also cited his show's contract as playing a role.^[10] In all, Springer spent a little over $1 million of his own money on his exploratory campaign.^[11]

Had he run, Springer would have faced obstacles, as polling showed that as much as 71% of voters polled held an unfavorable view of him.^[12] That same poll also showed that in a prospective contest, Voinovich lead with 77% of the vote to Springer's 16%.^[13] After his brief exploration, Springer hinted that in 2006, he would be interested in the open governorship and declined to rule out a Senate bid that year.^[14][10] Ultimately, he would pursue neither bid.

After Springer declined to enter, Fingerhut was seen as the favorite to win the nomination.^[9] He only faced token opposition from Norbert Dennerll, a former City Councilman who served in the late 50's and early 60's.^[1]

Results

Candidates

• Eric Fingerhut, state senator and former U.S. representative from Mayfield Heights (Democratic)
• Helen Meyers (write-in)
• George Voinovich, incumbent senator since 1999 and former governor (Republican)

Campaign

A popular U.S. Senator, Voinovich was the heavy favorite to win the election virtually from the start.^[13] He had over $9 million in the bank, while his opponent barely had $1.5 million.^[16] Fingerhut tried to draw attention to his candidacy by walking over 300 miles across the state and meeting with voters.^[17] However, he still faced long odds, with many Democratic officials ignoring his campaign and voters not believing in his chances.^[18][19]

Voinovich's biggest advantage was getting support from the most Democratic-leaning county in the state, Cuyahoga County, Ohio. Kerry carried it with almost 67% of the vote, by far his best performance in the state in 2004. It is the home of Cleveland and it is also most populous county in the state. Voinovich was a former mayor of Cleveland. In addition, he catered to Cleveland's large Jewish population by visiting Israel six times as a first-term U.S. Senator. He also consistently voted for aid to Israel through foreign appropriations bills. He's supported resolutions reaffirming Israel's right to self-defense and condemned Palestinian terrorist attacks.^[20] In addition, Fingerhut's home base was in the Cleveland area, and therefore he had to cut in through the incumbent's home base in order to even make the election close.

In a September University of Cincinnati poll, the incumbent led 64% to 34%.^[21] In an October ABC News poll, Voinovich was winning 60% to 35%. He led across almost all demographic groups. Only Democrats, non-whites, liberals, and those who pick health care as their #1 issue favor Fingerhut. The election coincided with the presidential election, where Ohio was a swing state. 27% of Voinovich's supporters preferred U.S. Senator John Kerry for president.^[22]

Predictions

Polling

Results

By congressional district

Voinovich won 17 of 18 congressional districts, including 6 that have Democratic congressman and 5 that voted for John Kerry in the presidential race.^[26]