2006 Belarusian presidential election

Domestic

Alexander Lukashenko became Belarus's first president in 1994. Two years later, a conflict with the Belarusian Parliament led to a referendum in 1996 that expanded presidential power. He then won reelection in 2001, officially receiving 77.39% of the vote. In 2004, a referendum abolished term limits for the presidency, allowing him to run in 2006.

Lukashenko consolidated his power during the second term. In 2001, presidential defamation was criminalized.^[6] A year later, the OSCE mission was expelled^[7] and a law was passed that prohibited foreigners to lead religious groups.^[8] Journalist Veronika Cherkasova, who reported on arms sales to Iraq, was found dead in 2004.^[9] In 2005, discrediting the Belarusian state became a crime.^[10]

Between 2003 and 2005, the Belarusian government closed the European Humanities University, the Belarusian Humanities Lyceum,^[11] the independent pollster IISEPS,^[12] and 157 NGOs.^[13] In 2005, it passed legislation that imposed stricter requirements for NGO funding and made it harder for unregistered ones to function.^[14] The total number of NGOs did not change between 2003 and 2007, but the restrictions affected civil society, as only 10% of NGOs were involved in pro-democracy activities.^[15][16]

Prior to the election, Belarusian wages and pensions rose, driven by annual economic growth of 8% to 11% between 2001 and 2005.^[17]

International

Belarusian relations with the West gradually worsened after Alexander Lukashenko's election as President in 1994,^[18] and deteriorated further following the 1996 referendum. This referendum expanded presidential powers and established a new Parliament that was not recognized by the EU or the USA.^[19][20] The presidential elections of 2001 were deemed neither free nor fair by the OSCE.^[21]

The American invasion of Iraq further worsened relations, as Lukashenko supported that country. A top aide to Saddam Hussein was reportedly found in possession of a Belarusian passport,^[22] and American leadership repeatedly accused Belarus of supplying weapons to Iraq.^[23][24] In 2004, Congress passed an Act aimed at promoting democracy and civil society in Belarus.^[20] The following year, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called Belarus an "outpost of tyranny" and later met with Belarusian opposition leaders.^[25][26]

The expansion of the EU led to a common border with Belarus and the adoption of the European Neighbourhood Policy. New EU member countries, mainly Poland and Lithuania, advocated for more pressure on Lukashenko's government.^[27] In 2004, the EU introduced sanctions against six individuals for inhibiting civil rights^[28] and awarded the Sakharov Prize to the Belarusian Association of Journalists in December.^[29] In 2005, Poland and Belarus had a diplomatic dispute, with Poland accusing Belarus of repressing its Polish minority and Lukashenko accusing Poland of attempting to stage a revolution.^[30]

The early 2000s saw the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and the Rose Revolution in Georgia. In 2002, Gene Sharp said that such a revolution was "somewhat possible" in Belarus.^[31] In 2004, the Polish President said that bringing democracy to Belarus was a European task,^[32] and former Czech President Václav Havel called Belarus "The Last Totalitarian Country in Europe" and urged democratization.^[33] Lukashenko claimed that the West was plotting a similar color revolution against him.^[34]

Belarus and Russia formed the Union State in 1999. While initially both sides sought closer cooperation, the relationship worsened, with failures to adopt a common currency, military, or an anthem.^[35] In 2002, Lukashenko expelled Russian politician Boris Nemtsov from Belarus.^[36] In 2004, Russia and Belarus had a gas dispute,^[37] and in the same year, Lukashenko introduced a 75% quota for Belarusian music on radio.^[38] In 2005, Russia criticized Belarus for human rights abuses.^[39] Nevertheless, the threat of a revolution similar to Ukraine's led Russia to strongly back Lukashenko in the election,^[1] the conduct of which was announced by the Belarusian parliament just one day after a meeting between Putin and Lukashenko.^[40]

Former candidates

• Zianon Pazniak: withdrew on 26 January^[51]
• Valeri Frolov: withdrew on 1 February in favor of Kazulin^[52]
• Alexander Voitovich: withdrew on 9 January^[53]
• Sergei Skrebets: withdrew in late January, supported Kazulin^[54]

Alexander Lukashenko

Alexander Lukashenko, based his campaign on the economic growth during his tenure. He promised to reduce bureaucracy and support private business.^[55] Regarding foreign policy, he said that the development of the Union State was a strategic goal and stated he remained open to political dialogue with other countries.^[55] Lukashenko claimed he was committed to Belarus's independence and sovereignty, and said he was not supported by the Kremlin.^[56]

His campaign relied on state-owned media, receiving 95% of prime-time television coverage and 90% in state-owned newspapers.^[57]

Alaksandar Milinkievič

Alaksandar Milinkievič, a physicist by education, became involved in politics during the late Soviet Union, serving on the Grodno City Council. He was one of the leaders of Siamion Domash's 2001 campaign staff and,^[58] despite being Belarusian and Orthodox, was accused by state media of being Polish and Catholic.^[59][60]

He supproted liberal economic policies and the promotion of democratic values.^[61] Milinkievič was a pro-European candidate; during his campaign he met with then-President of the European Commission José Manuel Barroso and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.^[62] He did not support Belarus's accession to NATO.^[56]

He did not believe he could officially win the election, and said his intention to "get people out into the street"^[63] comparing his stance to that of the Polish Solidarity movement in 1980. Milinkievič viewed the election as an opportunity for open campaigning,^[64] for instance, it marked the first time in five years that the opposition received any television airtime.^[65] He also described his mission as "God-given".^[66]

Sergei Gaidukevich

Sergei Gaidukevich, a military veteran and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus, won a seat in parliament in the 2000 elections and had previously run in the 2001 presidential election.^[67]

He was the only candidate with whom Lukashenko was willing to shake hands.^[68] Gaidukevich did not actively campaign, and the signatures for his nomination were collected with state assistance.^[69] Regarding potential protests on Election Day, he said that protests were for "losers", and he would emerge as a victor.^[70]

Alyaksandr Kazulin

Alyaksandr Kazulin, a former rector of Belarusian State University, faced criticism from Lukashenko in 2001 for students' poor voting records and was subsequently removed in 2003 on corruption charges.^[66]

Kazulin criticized Lukashenko for authoritarianism, an inefficient economic system, and corruption. He was more aligned with Russia than with the West and accused Lukashenko of exploiting Russian "brotherly feelings".^[71][72][73]

Kazulin attacked the high-ranking positions achieved by Lukashenko's sons. He called Lukashenko a "thug" and reportedly broke his portrait while in police custody.^[71][74]

Events

On 31 January, Milinkievič met with European leaders in Brussels, who warned Lukashenko to conduct free and fair elections.^[76]

On 8 February, Belarus accused Poland of espionage. Poland denied the accusation, saying it was part of Lukashenko's election campaign. ^[77]

On 22 February, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs criticized the OSCE, claiming they had already predetermined not to declare the Belarusian election free and fair.^[78]

On 24 February, a State Department representative urged the Belarusian government not to use force and expressed concern over the arrest of activists. ^[79]

On 26 February, Belarusian state media ran a story alleging that the KGB had discovered Gallup exit polls showing Milinkievič as the victor. Baltic Gallup responded that the polls were fake.^[80]

On 1 March, the KGB head claimed that the opposition planned to seize government buildings and stage a false flag terrorist attack.^[81]

On 2 March, Kazulin was briefly arrested and beaten after attempting to enter the All-Belarusian People's Assembly meeting.^[72]

On 9 March, Belarusian Popular Front leader Vincuk Viačorka was arrested and sentenced to 15 days in prison for participating in an unsanctioned rally.^[82]

On 16 March, the head of the KGB announced that the opposition was planning a coup, alleging that they intended to poison Minsk's water supply. He threatened the death penalty for those involved in "terrorism". By this time, 60 people had already been jailed.^[83][84]

On 17 March, the White House published a report calling Belarus a dictatorship bordering the EU and NATO and accused Lukashenko of corruption and enrichment via the arms trade. Lukashenko dismissed the report and labeled George W. Bush "terrorist No. 1".^[85][86]

Monitoring

The OSCE mission of 546 observers said the election did not meet democratic standards.^[3] It criticized early voting, through which 31% of eligible voters cast their ballots,^[91] and limited access to result tabulation,^[92] the exclusion of opposition members from electoral commissions, and their sparse representation among observers.^[93]

In response, the Central Election Commission of Belarus claimed that the alleged abuses were either unverified or conducted in accordance with Belarusian law, which it asserted met international standards.^[94] The 467-member delegation from the Commonwealth of Independent States said the election was open and transparent.^[95]

Electoral results

Official results, announced on 23 March, showed Lukashenko winning in a landslide.^[46]

Results by region

Domestic

Following the election, an organization with ties to the government released exit poll results claiming that Lukashenko secured over 80% of the vote. Milinkievič's campaign office said that he received 25.6% of the vote, compared to Lukashenko's 47%.^[96]

Belarusian authorities said they would crush any protests following the election.^[97] Lukashenko declared victory and the defeat of the "revolution", stating that while he was unwilling to jail Milinkievič and Kazulin, he did not rule out the possibility.^[98]

Protesting the election results, approximately ten thousand people gathered at October Square in Minsk.^{[99][100][101]} They waved the Belarusian white-red-white flag, the flag of Europe, and flags of other nations such as Ukraine, Poland, and Russia.^[102] Several hundred protesters remained at the square overnight and thousands were present each evening.^[103]

The opposition planned a large protest for Saturday, which coincided with the anniversary of the establishment of the Belarusian People's Republic.^[104] The police dispersed the protests early on Friday, arresting hundreds.^[105] On Saturday, 6,000 people gathered, but riot police blocked their access to the central square and arrested Kazulin,^[106] who was sentenced to five and a half years in prison in July.^[107]

Jan Rybar, a reporter of the Czech daily Mlada fronta Dnes, was beaten at the opposition demonstration in Minsk. He speculated he had been attacked by agents of the Belarusian KGB.^[108] Belarusian authorities arrested the former Polish ambassador to Belarus Mariusz Maszkiewicz and Polish journalist Weronika Samolinska.^[109] In total, over 500 people were arrested during the protests.^[110]

Belarusian state television claimed that two of its reporters were beaten by protesters.^[111] The Belarusian Association of Journalists doubted the incident occurred, suggesting the reporters were at most hit with snowballs.^[112] Amidst the unrest, Lukashenko postponed his inauguration, ^[113] conducting it on 8 April in military uniform. He blamed the West for inciting the protests.^[114] He later claimed in November that his true vote count was over 90% and that he had falsified it down to 80% to appear more appealing to Europeans, but they did not appreciate his gesture.^[115]

Western countries

The report of the OSCE stated that the election failed to meet democratic standards.^[3]

On 20 March, the State Department called for a new vote.^[4] In May, George W. Bush issued a proclamation restricting members of the Belarusian government from traveling to the US.^[116] In June, he introduced financial sanctions against 10 people, including Lukashenko, for undermining democratic processes.^[5]

On 6 April, the European Parliament adopted a resolution that condemned the "failed Presidential elections".^[117] The Council of the European Union sanctioned 31 people, including Lukashenko.^[118] In October, Milinkievič was awarded the Sakharov Prize, the EU's top human rights award.^[119]

Czech President Václav Klaus decided not to congratulate the Belarusian President.^[120]

Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin called Lukashenko the day after the elections to congratulate him.^[121] A few days later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that the OSCE mission had played a provocative role and accused it of declaring elections illegitimate before the election day.^[122]

Pro-government media lauded the outcome as a defeat for "orange" political technologies.^[123] The liberal opposition condemned Lukashenko's actions, and organized a protest of about ten people which was dispersed.^[124]

Russia said on 30 March that Belarus's gas prices were unacceptably lower than European ones.^[125] By 19 April, Belarus agreed to cede some control of the state natural gas monopoly, Beltransgaz.^[126] Russia had sought this control since the early 1990s,^[127] nearly getting a similar deal in April 2002.^[128] The formal agreement was signed in May 2007 and allowed Gazprom to acquire a 50% stake in the company by paying $2.5 billion from 2007 to 2010.^[129]