2006 JY26
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Impact risk
2006 JY26 was discovered by E. J. Christensen on 6 May 2006, observing for the Catalina Sky Survey.[6][7] Its orbit is characterized by low eccentricity (0.083), low inclination (1.44º) and a semi-major axis of 1.01 AU.[7] Upon discovery, it was classified as an Apollo asteroid but also an Earth crosser by the Minor Planet Center. The orbit is based on 76 observations spanning a data-arc of 4 days.[8] 2006 JY26 has an absolute magnitude (H) of 28.4 which gives a characteristic diameter of about 9 meters.[8]
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty region (3-sigma) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2073-05-03 09:36 | 330 thousand | 0.025 AU (3.7 million km) | ±2.4 million km |
| 2074-05-03 00:43 | 210 | 0.0099 AU (1.48 million km) | ±2.8 million km[10] |
| 2075-05-01 10:34 | 2.4 million | 0.14 AU (21 million km) | ±23 million km |
It is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with a 1 in 210 chance of impacting Earth on 3 May 2074.[9][11] The nominal best-fit orbit shows that 2006 JY26 will be 0.0099 AU (1,480,000 km; 920,000 mi) from Earth on 3 May 2074.[8] An impact from this object would be less severe than the Chelyabinsk meteor.
Horseshoe companion to the Earth and orbital evolution
Recent calculations indicate that it follows a horseshoe orbit with respect to the Earth.[5] It had a close encounter with the Earth on 10 May 2006, at 0.0029 AU (430,000 km; 270,000 mi).[8] Its orbital evolution is very chaotic and its orbit is difficult to predict beyond a few hundred years.[5] Its orbit matches the expected properties of that of an object in the Arjuna-class.
Origin
It may have been originated within the Venus–Earth–Mars region or in the main asteroid belt like other near-Earth objects, then transition to Amor-class asteroid before entering Earth's co-orbital region.[5]
