2007 FT3
Lost risk–listed hazardous near-Earth asteroid
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2007 FT3 is a lost asteroid[2] with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that cannot be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.19 ± 0.01 astronomical units (28.4 ± 1.5 million kilometres) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. 2007 FT3 is the fourth largest asteroid with better than a 1-in-2 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA, 1979 XB, and 101955 Bennu. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of –3.06, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place 2007 FT3 eighth on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.[6]
| Discovery[1] | |
|---|---|
| Discovered by | Mt. Lemmon Survey |
| Discovery date | 20 March 2007 |
| Designations | |
| 2007 FT3 | |
| Orbital characteristics[4] | |
| Epoch 21 March 2007 (JD 2454180.5) | |
| Uncertainty parameter 9 | |
| Observation arc | 1.2 days[5] |
| Aphelion | 1.48±0.02 AU (Q) |
| Perihelion | 0.782±0.007 AU (q) |
| 1.13±0.02 AU (a) | |
| Eccentricity | 0.308±0.006 (e) |
| 1.2±0.03 years | |
Average orbital speed | 28.4 km/s[a] |
| 298°±3° (M) | |
| Inclination | 26.9°±0.43° (i) |
| 9.9°±0.2° (Ω) | |
| 277°±2° (ω) | |
| Earth MOID | 0.01 AU (1.5 million km) ? |
| Jupiter MOID | 3.83 AU (573 million km) ? |
| Physical characteristics | |
| Dimensions |
|
| 20?[4] | |
Potential impacts
Possible impacts were projected for 2 October 2013,[5] 3 October 2019,[7] and 3 October 2024. Since the asteroid has a short observation arc and the uncertainty in the orbit of the asteroid intersects Earth's orbit, simulations could not rule out the asteroid and Earth being at the same point in space on any of those dates.[8][9] None of these impacts happened, nor was the asteroid detected near those dates.
| Date | Impact probability (1 in) |
JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
MPC[10] nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU) |
uncertainty[11] region |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-10-02 | 1.9 billion | 0.94 AU (141 million km) | 1.0 AU (150 million km) | 1.1 AU (160 million km) | 1.2 AU (180 million km) | ± 330 million km |
| 2019-10-03 | 11 million | 0.93 AU (139 million km) | 0.95 AU (142 million km)[7] | 1.3 AU (190 million km) | 1.4 AU (210 million km) | ± 620 million km |
| 2024-10-03 | 11 million | 1.7 AU (250 million km)[9] | 1.7 AU (250 million km)[8] | 2.0 AU (300 million km)[10] | 2.0 AU (300 million km)[12] | ± 500 million km[9] |
See also
Notes
- v = 42.1219 √1/r − 0.5/a, where r is the distance from the Sun, and a is the major semi-axis. Average velocity is at r=a=1.1 AU.
