2007 Georgia missile incident

The missile incident occurred amids rising tensions between Georgia and Russia since the 2003 Rose Revolution, which brought Mikhail Saakashvili, a pro-western president to power.^[2] Among others, his wish for Georgia to join NATO and the EU, as well as seeking greater economic and military ties with the West, irked Russia as it marked a loss of Russian influence in the region. Since then, several crises, incidents and accusations have succeeded each other: the 2004 Adjara crisis, the 2006 North Ossetia sabotages, the 2006 Russian ban of Moldovan and Georgian wines, the 2006 Kodori crisis, the 2006 Georgian-Russian espionage controversy and the March 2007 Georgia helicopter attack incident.

Vano Merabishvili, Georgia's interior minister, said that two Sukhoi attack aircraft entered Georgian airspace from Russia at 7.30 pm on 7 August and fired at least one air-to-surface missile at the village of Tsitelubani.^[3] The missile left a 16-foot crater in a field but failed to detonate. Sappers later defused the missile.

Georgian experts have identified the missile as a Soviet-designed Kh-58 ARM. The remains of the missile were destroyed by the Georgian authorities before its identity could be confirmed by the Joint Control Commission.^[4] Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said the incident was part of a pattern of Russian aggression against its neighbors and urged European states to condemn Moscow. Georgia claimed to have radar evidence proving that the invading aircraft flew in from Russia and said that the strike had aimed, unsuccessfully, at destroying radar equipment recently installed near the South Ossetian conflict zone.^[5][6] The Georgian experts suggested the pilot did not fire but jettisoned the missile and fled after friendly forces of South Ossetia mistakenly fired an anti-aircraft missile at his jet.^[7]

Former President of Georgia Eduard Shevardnadze, said that during his time in office, Russian jets on a regular basis bombed Georgian forces during the wars in the 1990s when Abkhazia and South Ossetia broke from central government control. "I won't be revealing any great secrets if I say that that such violations of Georgia's air space and bombings were common during my presidency. But Russian forces never acknowledged any of this," Shevardnadze said.^[8]

The Georgian opposition politicians Salome Zourabichvili and Shalva Natelashvili suggested that the Georgian authorities might have been behind the incident, intended as a provocation.^[9][10]

On 22 August, after the conclusions of the two international and the Russian investigations (see below), Georgia's UN ambassador, Irakli Alasania, accused Russia of attempting to "intimidate Georgia and assess Georgian military readiness." He further added that Georgia had to "take an absolutely resolute and non-negotiable stance in the face of efforts to use military force to destabilize a democratic state, and to attempt to influence its domestic and foreign policy".^[11]

South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity described the incident as "a provocation staged by the Georgian side, aimed at discrediting Russia", claiming that another bomb fell in South Ossetia.^[12] In his words, "a Georgian military plane crossed into South Ossetia on Monday, performed manoeuvres above Ossetian villages and dropped two bombs."^[12] On 9 August 2007, South Ossetian President Eduard Kokoity announced that he intends to request that Russia deploys air-defense systems in the republic, to discourage any such future incidents.^{[citation needed]}

Russia also denied the Georgian claim.^[13] Later that day, Russia's foreign ministry said that Georgian jets may have fired the missile on their own territory as a way of provoking tensions in the region and derailing a session of the Joint Control Commission on Georgian-South Ossetian Conflict Resolution.^[14] Georgia immediately denounced the claim as absurdity.

The U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Matthew Bryza rejected the Russian allegations, advising Moscow to tone down its rhetoric on Georgia.^[15] European Commission spokeswoman Christiane Hohmann urged Georgia and Russia to show restraint and said it is not possible to further comment on the incident until the full facts are known.^[16] She added a team from the OSCE is looking into the affair. The OSCE has also appealed for both sides to show restraint.

Adrian Blomfield reported in The Daily Telegraph that some commentators suggested that a group of Kremlin hardliners were intent on provoking a military confrontation to provide an excuse to change the Russian constitution and allow Russian president Vladimir Putin to stay in power.^[2] Alexei Malashenko, an expert on the Caucasus at the Moscow Carnegie Centre, said it was possible that this faction had ordered the firing of a dummy missile in a bid to fuel the crisis. But he said it was more likely that the missile attack could have been carried out by local Russian army units without the knowledge of the Russian government.

Stratfor, a private intelligence agency based in the United States, speculates that "considering regional developments in the past few weeks, this "bomb" was far more likely a Georgian ploy than a Russian one. (And it is even more likely that it was accidentally dropped by an under-loved and under-maintained Georgian aircraft rather than deliberately targeted.)".^[17]