2007 Madrid municipal election
Election in the Spanish municipality of Madrid
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A municipal election was held in Madrid on 27 May 2007 to elect the 8th City Council of the municipality. All 57 seats in the City Council were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in thirteen autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.
3.2% 3.0 pp | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
27 May 2007
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All 57 seats in the City Council of Madrid 29 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Opinion polls | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Registered | 2,404,697 3.2% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 1,585,441 (65.9%) 3.0 pp | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón's People's Party (PP) went on to win the largest victory achieved by a candidate in a municipal election in Madrid to date, with over 55% of the votes and nearly 60% of the seats. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) plummeted barely above 1995 levels, while United Left (IU) recovered from its negative result in 2003 and gained support for the first time since 1995.
Overview
Under the 1978 Constitution, the governance of municipalities in Spain—part of the country's local government system—was centered on the figure of city councils (Spanish: ayuntamientos), local corporations with independent legal personality composed of a mayor, a government council and an elected legislative assembly.[1] The mayor was indirectly elected by the local assembly, requiring an absolute majority; otherwise, the candidate from the most-voted party automatically became mayor (ties were resolved by drawing lots).[2] In the case of Madrid, the top-tier administrative and governing body was the City Council of Madrid.[3]
Date
The term of local assemblies in Spain expired four years after the date of their previous election, with election day being fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The election decree was required to be issued no later than 54 days before the scheduled election date and published on the following day in the Official State Gazette (BOE).[4] The previous local elections were held on 25 May 2003, setting the date for election day on the fourth Sunday of May four years later, which was 27 May 2007.
Local assemblies could not be dissolved before the expiration of their term, except in cases of mismanagement that seriously harmed the public interest and implied a breach of constitutional obligations, in which case the Council of Ministers could—optionally—decide to call a by-election.[5]
Elections to the assemblies of local entities were officially called on 3 April 2007 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the BOE, setting election day for 27 May.[6]
Electoral system
Voting for local assemblies was based on universal suffrage, comprising all Spanish nationals over 18 years of age, registered and residing in the municipality and with full political rights (provided that they had not been deprived of the right to vote by a final sentence, nor were legally incapacitated), as well as resident non-national European citizens, and those whose country of origin allowed reciprocal voting by virtue of a treaty.[7]
Local councillors were elected using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional voting, with a five percent-threshold of valid votes (including blank ballots) in each municipality.[8] Each municipality was a multi-member constituency, with a number of seats based on the following scale:[9]
| Population | Councillors |
|---|---|
| <250 | 5 |
| 251–1,000 | 7 |
| 1,001–2,000 | 9 |
| 2,001–5,000 | 11 |
| 5,001–10,000 | 13 |
| 10,001–20,000 | 17 |
| 20,001–50,000 | 21 |
| 50,001–100,000 | 25 |
| >100,001 | +1 per each 100,000 inhabitants or fraction +1 if total is an even number |
The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacant seats; instead, any vacancies arising after the proclamation of candidates and during the legislative term were filled by the next candidates on the party lists or, when required, by designated substitutes.[10]
Parties and candidates
The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within 10 days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of a determined amount of the electors registered in the municipality for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list. In the case of Madrid, as its population was over 1,000,001, at least 8,000 signatures were required.[11] Amendments earlier in 2007 required a balanced composition of men and women in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[12]
Below is a list of the main parties and alliances which contested the election:
| Candidacy | Parties and alliances |
Leading candidate | Ideology | Previous result | Gov. | Ref. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vote % | Seats | ||||||||
| PP | List
|
|
Alberto Ruiz-Gallardón | Conservatism Christian democracy |
51.3% | 30 |  |
[13] | |
| PSOE | List |
.jpg) |
Miguel Sebastián | Social democracy | 36.7% | 21 |  |
[14] [15] | |
| IUCM | List
|
.jpg) |
Ángel Pérez | Socialism Communism |
7.2% | 4 | |
[16] [17] [18] | |
Opinion polls
The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.
Voting intention estimates
The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 29 seats were required for an absolute majority in the City Council of Madrid (28 in the 2003 election).
- Color key:
Exit poll
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | Turnout |  |
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 municipal election | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 65.9 | 55.6 34 |
30.9 18 |
8.7 5 |
24.7 |
| Ipsos/RTVE–FORTA[p 1][p 2] | 27 May 2007 | ? | ? | 52.9 31/33 |
33.1 19/21 |
8.8 5/6 |
19.8 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 3] | 18 May 2007 | 400 | ? | 53.5 32/33 |
32.8 19/20 |
9.5 5 |
20.7 |
| Metroscopia/ABC[p 4] | 14–16 May 2007 | ? | 65–70 | 54.5 33 |
34.5 21 |
6.0 3 |
20.0 |
| Opina/El País[p 5][p 6] | 14 May 2007 | ? | ? | 53.0 32 |
37.0 21/22 |
6.5 3/4 |
16.0 |
| TNS Demoscopia/Antena 3[p 7] | 9 May 2007 | ? | ? | ? 32/33 |
? 21/22 |
? 3/4 |
? |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 8] | 2–9 May 2007 | 500 | ? | 52.5 31/32 |
36.6 22/23 |
5.9 3 |
15.9 |
| Opina/Cadena SER[p 9][p 10] | 6 May 2007 | 600 | ? | 56.3 33 |
35.4 20/21 |
6.4 3/4 |
20.9 |
| CIS[p 11] | 2–4 May 2007 | 1,000 | ? | 52.7 32 |
34.5 21 |
7.1 4 |
18.2 |
| Opina/El País[p 12][p 13] | 21–22 Mar 2007 | 700 | ? | 53.0 31/32 |
38.0 22/23 |
5.5 3 |
15.0 |
| PSOE[p 14] | 1 Mar 2007 | ? | 70 | ? 28/29 |
? 24 |
? 4/5 |
? |
| Metroscopia/CEIM[p 15][p 16] | 12 Feb–1 Mar 2007 | 975 | ? | 53.9 32 |
35.0 21 |
7.4 4 |
18.9 |
| Sigma Dos/PP[p 17] | 14–25 Feb 2007 | 1,200 | ? | 52.5 30/31 |
36.1 20/21 |
6.8 4 |
16.4 |
| Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 18][p 19] | 16–21 Nov 2006 | 400 | ? | 57.0 32/33 |
32.9 19/20 |
5.5 3 |
24.1 |
| Iberconsulta/La Razón[p 20] | 17 Sep 2006 | ? | ? | 53.3 31 |
34.2 20 |
? 4 |
19.1 |
| Opina/El País[p 21][p 22] | 26 Apr 2006 | 542 | ? | 51.0 29 |
38.0 22 |
8.0 4 |
13.0 |
| Synovate/PSOE[p 23] | 15 May 2005 | 1,012 | ? | ? 28 |
? 22 |
? 5 |
? |
| 2004 EP election | 13 Jun 2004 | N/a | 53.6 | 52.5 (30) |
40.0 (23) |
5.1 (2) |
12.5 |
| 2004 general election | 14 Mar 2004 | N/a | 80.8 | 47.6 (28) |
41.8 (24) |
6.3 (3) |
5.8 |
| October 2003 regional election | 26 Oct 2003 | N/a | 66.2 | 51.2 (30) |
36.6 (21) |
8.4 (4) |
14.6 |
| 2003 municipal election | 25 May 2003 | N/a | 68.9 | 51.3 30 |
36.7 21 |
7.2 4 |
14.6 |
Voting preferences
The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
 |
 |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 municipal election | 27 May 2007 | N/a | 36.5 | 20.3 | 5.7 | N/a | 34.1 | 16.2 |
| CIS[p 11] | 2–4 May 2007 | 1,000 | 42.1 | 23.1 | 4.8 | 18.5 | 4.1 | 19.0 |
| 2004 EP election | 13 Jun 2004 | N/a | 28.1 | 21.4 | 2.7 | N/a | 46.4 | 6.7 |
| 2004 general election | 14 Mar 2004 | N/a | 38.3 | 33.6 | 5.1 | N/a | 19.2 | 4.7 |
| October 2003 regional election | 26 Oct 2003 | N/a | 33.7 | 24.1 | 5.5 | N/a | 33.8 | 9.6 |
| 2003 municipal election | 25 May 2003 | N/a | 35.2 | 25.2 | 5.0 | N/a | 31.1 | 10.0 |
Victory preferences
The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a municipal election taking place.
Victory likelihood
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a municipal election taking place.
Preferred Mayor
The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become mayor of Madrid.
- All candidates
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
_Rodríguez_Zapatero_recibe_al_candidato_a_la_presidencia_de_Uruguay._Pool_Moncloa._5_de_julio_de_2004_(cropped).jpeg) |
|
.jpg) |
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallardón PP |
Jiménez PSOE |
Sebastián PSOE |
Sabanés IUCM |
Pérez IUCM | ||||||
| Opina/El País[p 6] | 14 May 2007 | ? | 50.0 | – | 27.0 | – | – | 23.0 | 23.0 | |
| Opina/Cadena SER[p 10] | 6 May 2007 | 600 | 50.2 | – | 28.2 | – | 5.8 | 6.0 | 9.9 | 22.0 |
| CIS[p 11] | 2–4 May 2007 | 1,000 | 49.9 | – | 17.7 | – | 2.6 | 17.2 | 12.6 | 32.2 |
| Opina/El País[p 22] | 26 Apr 2006 | 542 | 43.2 | 28.2 | – | 6.8 | – | 8.9 | 12.9 | 15.0 |
- Gallardón vs. Sebastián
- Gallardón vs. Bono
.jpg)
Predicted Mayor
The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become mayor.
| Polling firm/Commissioner | Fieldwork date | Sample size | |
|
|
|
|
Other/ None/ Not care |
|
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gallardón PP |
Jiménez PSOE |
Sebastián PSOE |
Sabanés IUCM |
Pérez IUCM | ||||||
| Opina/Cadena SER[p 10] | 6 May 2007 | 600 | 82.0 | – | 7.2 | – | 0.2 | 0.2 | 10.5 | 74.8 |
| Opina/El País[p 12] | 21–22 Mar 2007 | 700 | 78.4 | – | 11.9 | – | – | 0.4 | 9.2 | 66.5 |
| Opina/El País[p 22] | 26 Apr 2006 | 542 | 60.7 | 17.5 | – | 0.2 | – | 1.5 | 20.1 | 43.2 |
Results
 | ||||||
| Parties and alliances | Popular vote | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Total | +/− | ||
| People's Party (PP) | 877,589 | 55.65 | +4.35 | 34 | +4 | |
| Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) | 487,887 | 30.94 | −5.74 | 18 | −3 | |
| United Left of the Community of Madrid (IUCM) | 136,881 | 8.68 | +1.46 | 5 | +1 | |
| The Greens (LV, LVM, LVCM, LV–GV)1 | 14,011 | 0.89 | −1.24 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Alternative (AES) | 6,140 | 0.39 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) | 3,167 | 0.20 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| For a Fairer World (PUM+J) | 2,501 | 0.16 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE de las JONS) | 1,920 | 0.12 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Democratic and Social Centre (CDS) | 1,681 | 0.11 | −0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| National Democracy (DN) | 1,571 | 0.10 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Family and Life Party (PFyV) | 1,390 | 0.09 | −0.09 | 0 | ±0 | |
| The Phalanx (FE) | 1,353 | 0.09 | −0.04 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Republican Left (IR) | 1,272 | 0.08 | −0.13 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) | 1,253 | 0.08 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Madrid First (PM) | 1,163 | 0.07 | +0.02 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Humanist Party (PH) | 950 | 0.06 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Liberal Democratic Centre (CDL) | 834 | 0.05 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Commoners' Land (TC) | 821 | 0.05 | ±0.00 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Democratic Innovation (ID) | 664 | 0.04 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Authentic Phalanx (FA) | 530 | 0.03 | −0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Catholic Tercio of Political Action (TCAP) | 461 | 0.03 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Liberal Centrist Union (UCL) | 318 | 0.02 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Immigrants with Rights, Equality and Obligations (INDIO) | 308 | 0.02 | −0.01 | 0 | ±0 | |
| Union for Leganés (ULEG) | 188 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| European Ibero-American Alliance Party (PAIE) | 151 | 0.01 | New | 0 | ±0 | |
| Blank ballots | 32,066 | 2.03 | +0.43 | |||
| Total | 1,577,070 | 57 | +2 | |||
| Valid votes | 1,577,070 | 99.47 | −0.09 | |||
| Invalid votes | 8,371 | 0.53 | +0.09 | |||
| Votes cast / turnout | 1,585,441 | 65.93 | −2.97 | |||
| Abstentions | 819,256 | 34.07 | +2.97 | |||
| Registered voters | 2,404,697 | |||||
| Sources[19][20][21][22] | ||||||
Footnotes:
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