2008 United States Senate election in Idaho
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The 2008 United States Senate election in Idaho was held on November 4, 2008, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Idaho. Republican lieutenant governor Jim Risch won his first term in office, defeating Democratic former congressman Larry LaRocco and independent perennial candidate Rex Rammell. Risch succeeded Republican incumbent Larry Craig who did not seek a fourth term.
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November 4, 2008
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  Risch: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% LaRocco: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Rammell: 70–80% Marmon: >90% Tie: 40–50% No data | |||||||||||||||||||||
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Primary elections were held on May 27.[1]
Background
Incumbent Larry Craig announced his intent to resign following an incident where he allegedly solicited another man for gay sex in a public restroom.[2] Craig later decided not to resign but did announce that he would not seek re-election. The filing deadline for the election was March 21, 2008. A total of 13 candidates filed for the seat.[3] Republican and Democratic candidates ran for their respective nominations in the May 27 primary.
Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch defeated a crowded field for the Republican nomination, while former Congressman Larry LaRocco won the Democratic nomination in similar fashion. Conservative independents Rex Rammell and Pro-Life (formerly Marvin Richardson) also qualified for the general election ballot. Former Caldwell city council member Kent Marmon secured the Libertarian nomination. In the general election, Risch defeated LaRocco and the other candidates to keep the seat in Republican hands.
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
Eliminated in primary
- Fred Adams
- Brian Hefner
- Bill Hunter
- Richard Phenneger, Businessman
- Hal James Styles
- Scott Syme, Iraq War veteran[4]
- Neal Thompson
Results
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Risch | 80,743 | 65.34% | |
| Republican | Scott Syme | 16,660 | 13.48% | |
| Republican | Richard Phenneger | 6,532 | 5.29% | |
| Republican | Neal Thompson | 5,375 | 4.35% | |
| Republican | Fred M. Adams | 4,987 | 4.04% | |
| Republican | Bill Hunter | 4,280 | 3.46% | |
| Republican | Brian E. Hefner | 2,915 | 2.36% | |
| Republican | Hal James Styles, Jr. | 2,082 | 1.68% | |
| Total votes | 123,574 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Larry LaRocco, former U.S. representative for Idaho's 1st congressional district (1991–1995)[6]
Eliminated in primary
- David J. Archuleta
Results
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Larry LaRocco | 29,023 | 72.35% | |
| Democratic | David J. Archuleta | 11,074 | 27.60% | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 20 | 0.05% | |
| Total votes | 40,117 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Safe R | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[8] | Safe R | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[9] | Safe R | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[10] | Safe R | November 4, 2008 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Jim Risch (R) |
Larry LaRocco (D) |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[11] | September 9, 2008 | September 9, 2008 | 58.0% | 30.0% | 12.0% | Risch +28.0% |
| RealClearPolitics[12] | August 18–September 17, 2008 | September 17, 2008 | 51.7% | 30.7% | 17.6% | Risch +21.0% |
| Average | 54.9% | 30.4% | 14.7% | Risch +24.5% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Jim Risch (R) |
Larry LaRocco (D) |
Rex Rammell (I) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research 2000[13][A] | September 16–17, 2008 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 33% | 3% | 3% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports[11] | September 9, 2008 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 58% | 30% | – | 2% | 9% |
| Greg Smith Polling[14] | August 18–22, 2008 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 30% | 3% | – | 26% |
| Research 2000[15][A] | July 28–30, 2008 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 32% | 5% | 4% | 17% |
| Celinda Lake (D)[16][B] | May 20–25, 2008 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 28% | 5% | – | 24% |
| Robinson Research[17] | November 27 – December 12, 2007 | – | – | 46% | 27% | – | – | 27% |
| Myers Research (D)[18] | November 13–19, 2007 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 34% | – | – | 18% |
| SurveyUSA[19] | September 6, 2007 | 534 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 52% | 36% | – | – | 13% |
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat
Dirk Kempthorne vs. Larry LaRocco
David Leroy vs. Larry LaRocco
Mike Simpson vs. Larry LaRocco
Lawrence Wasden vs. Larry LaRocco
Dane Watkins vs. Larry LaRocco
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Risch | 371,744 | 57.65% | −7.51% | |
| Democratic | Larry LaRocco | 219,903 | 34.11% | +1.56% | |
| Independent | Rex Rammell | 34,510 | 5.35% | ||
| Libertarian | Kent Marmon | 9,958 | 1.54% | −0.75% | |
| Independent | Pro-Life | 8,662 | 1.35% | ||
| Write-in | 3 | 0.00% | |||
| Majority | 151,841 | 23.55% | −9.06% | ||
| Turnout | 644,780 | ||||
| Republican hold | |||||