2008 United States Senate election in Texas
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The 2008 United States Senate election in Texas was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican John Cornyn defeated Democratic nominee Rick Noriega, a member of the Texas House of Representatives, to win election to a second term. Cornyn increased his margin from 2002 in 2008 by 0.01%, a minuscule shift right.
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November 4, 2008
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 County results Cornyn: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Noriega: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Republican primary
Candidates
- John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Larry Kilgore, conservative/Secessionist activist
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Cornyn (incumbent) | 997,216 | 81.48% | +4.17% | |
| Republican | Larry Kilgore | 226,649 | 18.52% | +0.00% | |
| Total votes | 1,223,865 | 100.00% | |||
Democratic primary
Noreiga
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
Kelly
- 20–30%
- 30–40%
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
McCurrey
- 30–40%
Tie
- Tie
Candidates
- Gene Kelly, U.S. Air Force veteran and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2000
- Ray McMurrey, teacher at Mary Carroll High School
- Rick Noriega, State Representative
- Rhett Smith, U.S. Navy veteran and auditor at the Texas Department of Human Services
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Rick Noriega | 1,110,579 | 51.01% | |
| Democratic | Gene Kelly | 584,966 | 26.87% | |
| Democratic | Ray McMurrey | 269,402 | 12.37% | |
| Democratic | Rhett Smith | 213,305 | 9.75% | |
| Total votes | 2,178,252 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Candidates
- John Cornyn (R), incumbent U.S. Senator
- Rick Noriega (D), State Representative
- Yvonne Adams Schick (L), real estate entrepreneur[3]
Campaign
Cornyn, running as an incumbent, had a 42% approval rating with a 43% disapproval rating in June 2007.[4] Texas is a red state, that Republican presidential nominee John McCain won with over 55% of the vote. Cornyn slightly underperformed McCain. However, Noriega underperformed both 2008 Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in Texas and Cornyn's 2002 opponent, Ron Kirk, with Noriega receiving just 42.8% of the vote.
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[5] | Safe R | October 23, 2008 |
| CQ Politics[6] | Likely R | October 31, 2008 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[7] | Safe R | November 2, 2008 |
| Real Clear Politics[8] | Safe R | November 4, 2008 |
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Rick Noriega (D) | John Cornyn (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen[9] | September 18, 2007 | 30% | 53% |
| Research 2000[10] | September 24–26, 2007 | 35% | 51% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 1, 2008 | 43% | 47% |
| Research 2000/Daily Kos[11] | May 5–7, 2008 | 44% | 48% |
| Baselice & Associates[12] | May 20–25, 2008 | 33% | 49% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 2, 2008 | 35% | 52% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 25, 2008 | 35% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 30, 2008 | 39% | 50% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 29, 2008 | 43% | 50% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 21, 2008 | 40% | 55% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Cornyn (incumbent) | 4,337,469 | 54.82% | −0.48% | |
| Democratic | Rick Noriega | 3,389,365 | 42.84% | −0.50% | |
| Libertarian | Yvonne Adams Schick | 185,241 | 2.34% | +1.55% | |
| Majority | 948,104 | 11.98% | |||
| Turnout | 7,912,075 | 58.28% | |||
| Republican hold | Swing | ||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Bee (Largest city: Beeville)
- Caldwell (Largest city: Lockhart)
- Fisher (Largest city: Rotan)
- Foard (Largest city: Crowell)
- Haskell (Largest city: Haskell)
- Marion (Largest city: Jefferson)
- Pecos (Largest city: Fort Stockton)
- Refugio (Largest city: Refugio)
- San Augustine (Largest city: San Augustine)
- San Patricio (Largest city: Portland)
- Terrell (Largest city: Sanderson)
- Morris (Largest city: Daingerfield)
- Newton (Largest city: Newton)
- Calhoun (Largest city: Port Lavaca)
- Robertson (Largest city: Hearne)