2010 Iowa gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2010 Iowa gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor, to serve a four-year term beginning on January 14, 2011. In Iowa, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected on the same ticket. Along with the election in Ohio, this was one of the two gubernatorial elections where the incumbent lost re-election.
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November 2, 2010
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  Branstad: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Culver: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The two major party candidates were first-term incumbent Governor Chet Culver, a Democrat, who ran for re-election with first-term incumbent lieutenant governor Patty Judge, and former four-term Governor Terry Branstad, who won a three-way primary for the Republican nomination and ran with State Senator Kim Reynolds.
Branstad defeated Culver in the general election, becoming the first challenger to unseat an incumbent Iowa governor since Harold Hughes in 1962.[1][2]
Democratic primary
Candidates
- Chet Culver, incumbent Governor
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Chet Culver (incumbent) | 56,293 | 95.69 | |
| Democratic | Write-ins | 2,534 | 4.31 | |
| Total votes | 58,827 | 100 | ||
Republican primary
Candidates
On ballot
As listed by the Iowa Secretary of State's office:[4]
- Terry Branstad, former Governor[5]
- Rod Roberts, State Representative[6]
- Bob Vander Plaats, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2006[6]
Withdrew
- State Senator Paul McKinley withdrew after Terry Branstad formed an exploratory committee[7]
- Cedar Rapids businessman Christian Fong suspended his campaign due to a lack of campaign finances[8]
- Minority Leader of the Iowa House of Representatives Christopher Rants withdrew from the race due to lack of campaign funds[9]
- State Senator Jerry Behn withdrew from the race and endorsed Terry Branstad[10]
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Terry Branstad |
Bob Vander Plaats |
Rod Roberts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selzer & Co. Inc of Des Moines[11] | June 1–3, 2010 | 57% | 29% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling[12] | May 25–27, 2010 | 46% | 31% | 13% |
Results
Branstad
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Plaats
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Roberts
- 70–80%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Terry Branstad | 114,450 | 50.30 | |
| Republican | Bob Vander Plaats | 93,058 | 40.90 | |
| Republican | Rod Roberts | 19,896 | 8.74 | |
| Republican | Write-ins | 121 | 0.05 | |
| Total votes | 227,525 | 100 | ||
General election
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Candidates
- Chet Culver (D), incumbent governor; running with incumbent lieutenant governor Patty Judge.
- Gregory James Hughes (I), running with Robin Prior-Calef.[1][13]
- Terry Branstad (R), former four-term governor; running with State Senator Kim Reynolds.
- Eric Cooper (L), professor at Iowa State University; running with judicial administrator Nick Weltha.[14]
- Jonathan Narcisse (Iowa Party), former member of the Des Moines school board; running with truck driver Rick Marlar. Narcisse is a Democrat and Marlar is a Republican.[15] Narcisse's campaign and that of Senate District 45 candidate Douglas William Phillips were not affiliated, though both appeared on the ballot under the "Iowa Party" name.[16][17]
- David Rosenfeld (SWP), running with Helen Meyers.[1][18]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[19] | Likely R (flip) | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[20] | Likely R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[21] | Likely R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Likely R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[23] | Tossup | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Dates administered | Chet Culver (D) |
Terry Branstad (R) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[24] | September 23, 2010 | 37% | 55% |
| Rasmussen Reports[25] | August 5, 2010 | 36% | 52% |
| Rasmussen Reports[26] | June 14, 2010 | 31% | 57% |
| Public Policy Polling[27] | May 25–27, 2010 | 37% | 52% |
| KCCI-TV[28] | May 3–5, 2010 | 41% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports[29] | April 29, 2010 | 38% | 53% |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | March 17, 2010 | 36% | 52% |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | February 18, 2010 | 37% | 53% |
| KCCI-TV[32] | February 15–17, 2010 | 38% | 54% |
| Selzer & Co. of Des Moines[33] | January 31 – February 3, 2010 | 33% | 53% |
| Selzer & Co. of Des Moines[34] | November 8–11, 2009 | 33% | 57% |
| Daily Kos/Research 2000[35] | October 12–14, 2009 | 43% | 48% |
| Rasmussen Reports[36] | September 22, 2009 | 34% | 54% |
| Iowa First Foundation[37] | July 23–July 26, 2009 | 34% | 53% |
| Concordia Group LLC[38] | July 2009 | 37% | 53% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Terry Branstad | 592,494 | 52.81% | +8.43% | |
| Democratic | Chet Culver (incumbent) | 484,798 | 43.21% | −10.81% | |
| Iowa Party[17] | Jonathan Narcisse | 20,859 | 1.86% | n/a | |
| Libertarian | Eric Cooper | 14,398 | 1.28% | +0.74% | |
| Independent[13] | Gregory Hughes | 3,884 | 0.35% | n/a | |
| Socialist Workers | David Rosenfeld[18] | 2,757 | 0.25% | +0.06% | |
| Write-in | 2,823 | 0.25% | n/a | ||
| Total votes | 1,122,013 | 100.00% | n/a | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Adams (largest city: Corning)
- Audubon (largest city: Audubon)
- Benton (largest city: Vinton)
- Emmet (largest city: Estherville)
- Greene (largest city: Jefferson)
- Hamilton (largest city: Webster City)
- Hardin (largest city: Iowa Falls)
- Iowa (largest city: Williamsburg)
- Kossuth (largest city: Algona)
- Palo Alto (largest city: Emmetsburg)
- Warren (largest city: Indianola)
- Winnebago (largest city: Forest City)
- Allamakee (largest city: Waukon)
- Boone (largest city: Boone)
- Bremer (largest city: Waverly)
- Buchanan (largest city: Independence)
- Cedar (largest city: Tipton)
- Cerro Gordo (largest city: Mason City)
- Chickasaw (largest city: New Hampton)
- Clarke (largest city: Osceola)
- Clayton (largest city: Guttenberg)
- Clinton (largest city: Clinton)
- Fayette (largest city: Oelwein)
- Floyd (largest city: Charles City)
- Howard (largest city: Cresco)
- Jackson (largest city: Maquoketa)
- Jasper (largest city: Newton)
- Jones (largest city: Anamosa)
- Louisa (largest city: Wapello)
- Marshall (largest city: Marshalltown)
- Mitchell (largest city: Osage)
- Muscatine (largest city: Muscatine)
- Poweshiek (largest city: Grinnell)
- Scott (largest city: Davenport)
- Tama (largest city: Tama)
- Union (largest city: Creston)
- Wapello (largest city: Ottumwa)
- Webster (largest city: Fort Dodge)
- Winneshiek (largest city: Decorah)
- Worth (largest city: Northwood)
- Appanoose (Largest city: Centerville)
- Davis (Largest city: Bloomfield)
- Decatur (Largest city: Lamoni)
- Hancock (Largest city: Garner)
- Henry (Largest city: Mount Pleasant)
- Lucas (Largest city: Chariton)
- Monona (Largest city: Onawa)
- Monroe (Largest city: Albia)
- Ringgold (Largest city: Mount Ayr)
- Taylor (Largest city: Bedford)
- Wayne (Largest city: Corydon)
- Wright (Largest city: Eagle Grove)
By congressional district
Branstad won four of five congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.[39]
| District | Culver | Branstad | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 47% | 50% | Bruce Braley |
| 2nd | 50% | 46% | Dave Loebsack |
| 3rd | 44% | 51% | Leonard Boswell |
| 4th | 42% | 54% | Tom Latham |
| 5th | 32% | 65% | Steve King |