2010 New Mexico gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The 2010 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was term limited and could not seek a third consecutive term.
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November 2, 2010
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On June 1, 2010, the Republicans nominated Susana Martínez, the district attorney for Doña Ana County, New Mexico, and the Democrats nominated Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish.
While it was initially thought that Richardson would resign early to become Secretary of Commerce in the Obama administration, Richardson withdrew from the position due to allegations of corruption that were later cleared and he remained governor until the conclusion of his term.[1]
Susana Martínez won the election on November 2, 2010, and became New Mexico's first elected female governor, as well as the first Latina governor of any state.
Primary election
Democratic party
The Democratic primary election was held on June 1, 2010.[2]
Candidates
Declined
- Val Kilmer, actor, activist[4][5]
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Diane Denish | 108,302 | 99.07% | |
| Democratic | Billy J. Driggs (write-in) | 1,016 | 0.93% | |
| Total votes | 109,318 | 100.00% | ||
Republican party
The Republican primary was held on June 1, 2010.[2] Susana Martinez won the Republican nomination by getting over 50 percent of the vote in the primary. A pre-primary convention was held on March 13 and Martinez received 47 percent of the pre-primary Republican vote.[7]
Candidates
Declared
- Janice Arnold-Jones, state representative[8]
- Pete Domenici Jr., attorney and son of former U.S. Senator Pete Domenici[9]
- Susana Martínez, Doña Ana County district attorney[10]
- Doug Turner, former campaign manager for former Governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson
- Allen Weh, former chairman of the Republican Party of New Mexico[10]
Declined
- Steve Pearce, former U.S. representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008 (ran for Congress)[11]
- Heather Wilson, former U.S. representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008[12]
- Gregory Zanetti, former Bernalillo County Republican Party chair and New Mexico National Guard brigadier general[13]
Convention
A pre-primary nominating convention was held on March 13, 2010. Susana Martinez was victorious, winning the support of 46.65 percent of delegates, while Allen Weh received 26.32%, Janice Arnold-Jones received 13.16%, Doug Turner won 9.43%, and Pete Domenici Jr. won 4.61%. Candidates who receive less than 20% of the convention vote are required to collect twice as many signatures as those who received 20% in order to appear on the primary ballot. Nonetheless, Arnold-Jones, Turner and Domenici all signaled their intention to remain in the race.[7]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Janice Arnold-Jones | Pete Domenici Jr. | Susana Martínez | Doug Turner | Allen Weh | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[14] | May 23–25, 2010 | — | — | 3% | 8% | 43% | 8% | 33% | 5% |
| New Mexico State University[15] | February 9–13, 2010 | — | — | 2.5% | 29.3% | 11.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 42.6% |
Results
Martínez
- 60–70%
- 50–60%
- 40–50%
- <40%
Weh
- <40%
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Susana Martínez | 62,006 | 50.71% | |
| Republican | Allen Weh | 33,727 | 27.58% | |
| Republican | Doug Turner | 14,166 | 11.59% | |
| Republican | Pete Domenici, Jr. | 8,630 | 7.06% | |
| Republican | Janice Arnold-Jones | 3,740 | 3.06% | |
| Total votes | 122,269 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[16] | Tossup | October 14, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[17] | Lean R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[18] | Lean R (flip) | November 1, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Likely R (flip) | October 28, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[20] | Likely D | October 28, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Denish (D) |
Susana Martínez (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | October 24, 2010 | — | — | 42% | 52% | — | — |
| SurveyUSA[22] | October 15, 2010 | — | — | 42% | 54% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | October 10, 2010 | — | — | 43% | 52% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[23] | September 29, 2010 | — | — | 41% | 51% | — | — |
| Albuquerque Journal[24] | September 27–30, 2010 | — | — | 41% | 47% | — | — |
| Public Policy Polling[25] | September 25–26, 2010 | — | — | 42% | 50% | — | — |
| Public Opinion Strategies[26] | September 11–13, 2010 | — | — | 40% | 50% | — | — |
| Albuquerque Journal[27] | August 23–27, 2010 | — | — | 39% | 45% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[28] | August 24, 2010 | — | — | 43% | 48% | — | — |
| Magellan Strategies[29] | June 21, 2010 | — | — | 43% | 44% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[30] | June 3, 2010 | — | — | 42% | 44% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | May 25, 2010 | — | — | 43% | 42% | — | — |
| SurveyUSA[14] | May 23–25, 2010 | — | — | 43% | 49% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | March 24, 2010 | — | — | 51% | 32% | — | — |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | February 18–20, 2010 | — | — | 46% | 32% | — | — |
Hypothetical polling
With Arnold-Jones
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Denish (D) |
Janice Arnold-Jones (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | May 25, 2010 | — | — | 45% | 31% | — | — |
| SurveyUSA[14] | May 23–25, 2010 | — | — | 49% | 35% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | March 24, 2010 | — | — | 52% | 30% | — | — |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | February 18–20, 2010 | — | — | 47% | 33% | — | — |
With Domenici Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Denish (D) |
Pete Domenici Jr. (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | May 25, 2010 | — | — | 47% | 30% | — | — |
| SurveyUSA[14] | May 23–25, 2010 | — | — | 46% | 40% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | March 24, 2010 | — | — | 52% | 35% | — | — |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | February 18–20, 2010 | — | — | 45% | 40% | — | — |
With Turner
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Denish (D) |
Doug Turner (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | May 25, 2010 | — | — | 47% | 31% | — | — |
| SurveyUSA[14] | May 23–25, 2010 | — | — | 50% | 36% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | March 24, 2010 | — | — | 43% | 34% | — | — |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | February 18–20, 2010 | — | — | 46% | 32% | — | — |
With Weh
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Diane Denish (D) |
Allen Weh (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports[21] | May 25, 2010 | — | — | 45% | 39% | — | — |
| SurveyUSA[14] | May 23–25, 2010 | — | — | 47% | 42% | — | — |
| Rasmussen Reports[31] | March 24, 2010 | — | — | 45% | 35% | — | — |
| Public Policy Polling[32] | February 18–20, 2010 | — | — | 48% | 30% | — | — |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Susana Martinez | 321,219 | 53.29% | +22.10% | |
| Democratic | Diane Denish | 280,614 | 46.55% | −22.27% | |
| Republican | Kenneth A. Gomez (write-in) | 994 | 0.16% | ||
| Majority | 40,605 | 6.74% | |||
| Total votes | 602,827 | 100.00% | |||
| Republican gain from Democratic | Swing | +44.37% | |||
By county
Martinez was the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to carry Guadalupe County since Edwin L. Mechem in 1958.
| County | Susana Martinez Republican |
Diane Denish Democratic |
Kenneth A. Gomez Write-in |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Bernalillo | 102,711 | 50.79% | 99,278 | 49.10% | 218 | 0.11% | 3,433 | 1.70% | 202,207 |
| Catron | 1,472 | 77.60% | 420 | 22.14% | 5 | 0.26% | 1,052 | 55.46% | 1,897 |
| Chaves | 11,279 | 70.32% | 4,715 | 29.40% | 46 | 0.29% | 6,564 | 40.92% | 16,040 |
| Cibola | 3,176 | 48.52% | 3,340 | 51.02% | 30 | 0.46% | -164 | -2.51% | 6,546 |
| Colfax | 2,916 | 60.21% | 1,913 | 39.50% | 14 | 0.29% | 1,003 | 20.71% | 4,843 |
| Curry | 7,234 | 72.50% | 2,700 | 27.06% | 44 | 0.44% | 4,534 | 45.44% | 9,978 |
| De Baca | 619 | 68.93% | 276 | 30.73% | 3 | 0.33% | 343 | 38.20% | 898 |
| Doña Ana | 24,628 | 51.40% | 23,190 | 48.40% | 94 | 0.20% | 1,438 | 3.00% | 47,912 |
| Eddy | 10,144 | 69.22% | 4,498 | 30.69% | 12 | 0.08% | 5,646 | 38.53% | 14,654 |
| Grant | 5,165 | 48.76% | 5,406 | 51.03% | 22 | 0.21% | -241 | -2.28% | 10,593 |
| Guadalupe | 1,100 | 57.05% | 828 | 42.95% | 0 | 0.00% | 272 | 14.11% | 1,928 |
| Harding | 337 | 62.29% | 204 | 37.71% | 0 | 0.00% | 133 | 24.58% | 541 |
| Hidalgo | 1,014 | 58.18% | 728 | 41.77% | 1 | 0.06% | 286 | 16.41% | 1,743 |
| Lea | 9,661 | 74.18% | 3,341 | 25.65% | 21 | 0.16% | 6,320 | 48.53% | 13,023 |
| Lincoln | 5,544 | 73.50% | 1,990 | 26.38% | 9 | 0.12% | 3,554 | 47.12% | 7,543 |
| Los Alamos | 4,729 | 54.28% | 3,972 | 45.59% | 11 | 0.13% | 757 | 8.69% | 8,712 |
| Luna | 3,588 | 58.73% | 2,498 | 40.89% | 23 | 0.38% | 1,090 | 17.84% | 6,109 |
| McKinley | 5,850 | 34.69% | 10,965 | 65.02% | 50 | 0.30% | -5,115 | -30.33% | 16,865 |
| Mora | 1,220 | 46.39% | 1,410 | 53.61% | 0 | 0.00% | -190 | -7.22% | 2,630 |
| Otero | 11,085 | 69.70% | 4,792 | 30.13% | 27 | 0.17% | 6,293 | 39.57% | 15,904 |
| Quay | 1,955 | 65.10% | 1,036 | 34.50% | 12 | 0.40% | 919 | 30.60% | 3,003 |
| Rio Arriba | 4,818 | 40.47% | 7,066 | 59.35% | 22 | 0.18% | -2,248 | -18.88% | 11,906 |
| Roosevelt | 3,162 | 71.59% | 1,244 | 28.16% | 11 | 0.25% | 1,918 | 43.42% | 4,417 |
| San Juan | 24,857 | 69.59% | 10,777 | 30.17% | 86 | 0.24% | 14,080 | 39.42% | 35,720 |
| San Miguel | 3,508 | 38.31% | 5,641 | 61.60% | 8 | 0.09% | -2,133 | -23.29% | 9,157 |
| Sandoval | 24,097 | 56.50% | 18,478 | 43.33% | 72 | 0.17% | 5,619 | 13.18% | 42,647 |
| Santa Fe | 17,441 | 32.61% | 35,963 | 67.24% | 82 | 0.15% | -18,522 | -34.63% | 53,486 |
| Sierra | 2,887 | 65.78% | 1,495 | 34.06% | 7 | 0.16% | 1,392 | 31.72% | 4,389 |
| Socorro | 3,317 | 52.93% | 2,942 | 46.94% | 8 | 0.13% | 375 | 5.98% | 6,267 |
| Taos | 3,495 | 29.35% | 8,415 | 70.65% | 0 | 0.00% | -4,920 | -41.31% | 11,910 |
| Torrance | 3,788 | 67.35% | 1,827 | 32.49% | 9 | 0.16% | 1,961 | 34.87% | 5,624 |
| Union | 1,071 | 72.71% | 400 | 27.16% | 2 | 0.14% | 671 | 45.55% | 1,473 |
| Valencia | 13,351 | 59.97% | 8,866 | 39.83% | 45 | 0.20% | 4,485 | 20.15% | 22,262 |
| Total | 321,219 | 53.29% | 280,614 | 46.55% | 994 | 0.16% | 40,605 | 6.74% | 602,827 |
- Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
- Bernalillo (largest city: Albuquerque)
- Chaves (largest village: Roswell)
- Colfax (largest city: Raton)
- Curry (largest village: Clovis)
- De Baca (largest city: Fort Sumner)
- Doña Ana (largest city: Las Cruces)
- Eddy (largest city: Carlsbad)
- Guadalupe (largest city: Santa Rosa)
- Harding (largest city: Roy)
- Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg)
- Lea (largest city: Hobbs)
- Lincoln (largest city: Roidoso)
- Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos)
- Luna (largest city: Deming)
- Otero (largest city: Alamogordo)
- Quay (largest city: Tucumcari)
- Roosevelt (largest city: Portales)
- San Juan (largest city: Farmington)
- Sandoval (largest city: Rancho)
- Sierra (largest city: Truth or Consequences)
- Socorro (largest city: Socorro)
- Torrance (largest city: Moriarty)
- Union (largest city: Clayton)
- Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas)
